I hope they find a way to keep Estrada but for no more than a 2-3 year commitment. I don't expect they will really be in the running for Price. I assume they will give Sanchez another shot at starting but I'd be surprised if he lasts in that role. The "GM team" is going to be challenged to shore up the rotation and the bullpen this winter via trades and signings.
Starters Stroman, Estrada, Dickey, Sanchez, and one of Happ, Hutchinson, Chavez has potential to be pretty awesome IMO!
Im a Jays fan, but I look at this and think the exact opposite. It has a greater potential to be pretty terrible than it does pretty awesome. Take a look at the projected 16' starting 5s across MLB and you're stretched to call out few where you'd rather have what the jays have.
? Is the starting pitching better than last year or not ?
Its a bit of a loaded question. I would argue its worse post trade deadline when they actually started winning.
Probably neutral or a slight bit better than the beginning of the year when they were 500.
Basically Dickey / Hutch have to be equal or better to last year. Sanchez and Stro have to realize their actual potential (the sample size is still very small).
Then you have to hope Happ/Chavez can replace the effectiveness of Buerhle. Not even talking about Price - which someone has to replicate.
Conclusion: They're equal to or worse than last year, just my opinion.
Pretty sure The Yankees and Orioles would love to swap rotations with the Jays if they could. Rays and Sox not so much however Jays offence is much stronger. And they can still pull off a trade at the deadline if needed.
If I were setting percentages I would give the rotation the following outcomes for the AL only
awesome (top 5) 25%
average (middle 5) 60%
terrible (bottom 5) 15%
Thing is with the Jays offence and defence even average should mean a playoff berth which is why I like their chances in 2016!
? Is the starting pitching better than last year or not ?
My thoughts...
#1 Stroman - has the ability to take the Price role, but still too small a sample size to call him a true ace. Definitely higher upside potential than his downside is low.
#2 Estrada - he's the new style starter that relies on changeups instead of breaking balls, which I am sold on being tougher for better batters to hit overall. His changeup is devastating and my only concern is that he was clearly better with Navarro last season. If he can get Martin on the same page he's an above avg. #2.
#3 Dickey- is what he is. Inning eater who will have equal parts great, decent, poor and brutal starts. The offense will get him 12+ wins just because.
#4 Happ - surely I'm in the minority but I think he's highly underrated and would have never traded him last year for Saunders. They need a lefty and he'll be able to fill Buerhle's spot with a slightly higher ERA but more dominance. Unfortunately won't come close to avg game time Beurhle had.
#5 Sanchez - I actually believe there's just as good a chance that this ends up being Roberto Osuna as Storen takes the closer role and Sanchez stays in the setup spot. I'd say either way the potential is there to have the best #5 starter in the AL but potential is nothing until it comes to fruition. My take is Osuna's stuff is wicked and Sanchez's has the tendency to be a bit predictable.
Depth - Chavez, Hutchison, Penny - Again I'm in the minority in believing that Chavez is one of the best in this #6 starter role. There is always a chance that Sanchez/Osuna both get a shot at starting if they can add a couple more bullpen arms and Cecil can put together a full season of good work for once. I don't trust Hutch or Penny farther that I can throw them and I'm glad I'm not a Buffalo Bison's season ticket holder.
Bottom line I think they are better on balance than opening day 2015.
I should add that I still believe that Gibbons is the nut worst at managing a pitching staff, and bullpen in particular. I also have no faith whatsoever in the job Pete Walker does as pitching coach.
You're taking the MVP to arbitration over LESS THAN HALF A MILLY?!? That's a fucking ROUNDING error in most contracts. Far be it from me to quote Teddy KGB, but PAY THAT MAN HIS MONEY . . .
You're taking the MVP to arbitration over LESS THAN HALF A MILLY?!? That's a fucking ROUNDING error in most contracts. Far be it from me to quote Teddy KGB, but PAY THAT MAN HIS MONEY . . .
Yeah that is quite unsettling. If the Jays brass is playing hardball with the reigning MVP, how are they going to approach contract talks with Bautista and EE after this season.
Those two I am less worried about as their next contracts are likely to be their last, meaning trying to balance out risk and reward with a diminishing asset takes priority (in my eyes). Donaldson STILL has a fair bit of upside. This is just DUMB . . .
Not getting that at all. 29 milly when they are were fighting over about 11.4m. Even if they went to arbitration again next year, 29-11.4m = 17.9m Did they really think that they would be saving money with the two year contract?
As it is, I think they were saying that if Josh won this year, it would tie the highest arbitration award ever? So would he really have gotten to over 18 m next year?
Could yesterday's game have gone any more to plan.
1. Beat up lefty starter with the bats
2. Dickey goes 6 innings
3. Chavez comes in the 6th
4. Cecil in the 7th
5. Storn in the 8th
6. Osuna gets the save
Friend is in Vegas and the current odds are +400 for AL Championship and +700 for world series win. Was considering $100 on both.
I got them for +750 when I post my prop bets below, it is a number that I continue to believe will drop. I few years ago I made the prop bet the Jays would not get to 87 wins setting the line at 86.5 Well this year it is the same number and the team is better. It was an easy over the total. (93 wins this year)
1. Utly slides breaks a guys leg and his two games suspension is over turned and deemed a legal slide because he could touch the bag. No pentaly whatsoever..
2. Bautista slides into the bag and his trail hand hits the foot of the thrower who throws it into the dugout. It goes to replay and ends up being overturned two forced outs on the play Jays lose.
Just terrible. Last night they say a fan interfered and were wrong, but it didn't stop the stadium officials from kicking him out of the game.
I'm not going to go with the 'homers' on this one. Clearly Jose reached out with his hand and grabbed his leg. Everyone can complain about the new rule all they want but this was illegal before the new rules. It has nothing to do with if it was a legal slide or not. He reached out his hand and grabbed the guy. Clearly intentional interference. Period.
2015 rules (and no different in 2016):
If, however, the runner has contact with a legally occupied base
when he hinders the fielder, he shall not be called out unless, in
the umpire’s judgment, such hindrance, whether it occurs on
fair or foul territory, is intentional. If the umpire declares the
hindrance intentional, the following penalty shall apply: With
less than two out, the umpire shall declare both the runner and
batter out. With two out, the umpire shall declare the batter
I'm not going to go with the 'homers' on this one. Clearly Jose reached out with his hand and grabbed his leg. Everyone can complain about the new rule all they want but this was illegal before the new rules. It has nothing to do with if it was a legal slide or not. He reached out his hand and grabbed the guy. Clearly intentional interference. Period.
2015 rules (and no different in 2016):
If you watch the replay, the second baseman released the ball before Bautista touched his foot. This play should never have been over turned.
Comments
Decent Save %
Ben Revere Drew Storen trade a winner for all | MLB.com
Starters Stroman, Estrada, Dickey, Sanchez, and one of Happ, Hutchinson, Chavez has potential to be pretty awesome IMO!
Im a Jays fan, but I look at this and think the exact opposite. It has a greater potential to be pretty terrible than it does pretty awesome. Take a look at the projected 16' starting 5s across MLB and you're stretched to call out few where you'd rather have what the jays have.
Its a bit of a loaded question. I would argue its worse post trade deadline when they actually started winning.
Probably neutral or a slight bit better than the beginning of the year when they were 500.
Basically Dickey / Hutch have to be equal or better to last year. Sanchez and Stro have to realize their actual potential (the sample size is still very small).
Then you have to hope Happ/Chavez can replace the effectiveness of Buerhle. Not even talking about Price - which someone has to replicate.
Conclusion: They're equal to or worse than last year, just my opinion.
If I were setting percentages I would give the rotation the following outcomes for the AL only
awesome (top 5) 25%
average (middle 5) 60%
terrible (bottom 5) 15%
Thing is with the Jays offence and defence even average should mean a playoff berth which is why I like their chances in 2016!
My thoughts...
#1 Stroman - has the ability to take the Price role, but still too small a sample size to call him a true ace. Definitely higher upside potential than his downside is low.
#2 Estrada - he's the new style starter that relies on changeups instead of breaking balls, which I am sold on being tougher for better batters to hit overall. His changeup is devastating and my only concern is that he was clearly better with Navarro last season. If he can get Martin on the same page he's an above avg. #2.
#3 Dickey- is what he is. Inning eater who will have equal parts great, decent, poor and brutal starts. The offense will get him 12+ wins just because.
#4 Happ - surely I'm in the minority but I think he's highly underrated and would have never traded him last year for Saunders. They need a lefty and he'll be able to fill Buerhle's spot with a slightly higher ERA but more dominance. Unfortunately won't come close to avg game time Beurhle had.
#5 Sanchez - I actually believe there's just as good a chance that this ends up being Roberto Osuna as Storen takes the closer role and Sanchez stays in the setup spot. I'd say either way the potential is there to have the best #5 starter in the AL but potential is nothing until it comes to fruition. My take is Osuna's stuff is wicked and Sanchez's has the tendency to be a bit predictable.
Depth - Chavez, Hutchison, Penny - Again I'm in the minority in believing that Chavez is one of the best in this #6 starter role. There is always a chance that Sanchez/Osuna both get a shot at starting if they can add a couple more bullpen arms and Cecil can put together a full season of good work for once. I don't trust Hutch or Penny farther that I can throw them and I'm glad I'm not a Buffalo Bison's season ticket holder.
Bottom line I think they are better on balance than opening day 2015.
You're taking the MVP to arbitration over LESS THAN HALF A MILLY?!? That's a fucking ROUNDING error in most contracts. Far be it from me to quote Teddy KGB, but PAY THAT MAN HIS MONEY . . .
Yeah that is quite unsettling. If the Jays brass is playing hardball with the reigning MVP, how are they going to approach contract talks with Bautista and EE after this season.
Jays took him to arbitration last year as well and won. It didn't seem to affect Josh in a negative way.
Blue Jays, Josh Donaldson reach 2-year deal | bluejays.com
As it is, I think they were saying that if Josh won this year, it would tie the highest arbitration award ever? So would he really have gotten to over 18 m next year?
Other than Collabello at the plate, everyone looks to be in decent form. His play in the field is solid tho.
Nice to see Dickey get his first road win before the all-star break this year.
1. Beat up lefty starter with the bats
2. Dickey goes 6 innings
3. Chavez comes in the 6th
4. Cecil in the 7th
5. Storn in the 8th
6. Osuna gets the save
Now just repeat and we win 100+ games
Friend is in Vegas and the current odds are +400 for AL Championship and +700 for world series win. Was considering $100 on both.
I got them for +750 when I post my prop bets below, it is a number that I continue to believe will drop. I few years ago I made the prop bet the Jays would not get to 87 wins setting the line at 86.5 Well this year it is the same number and the team is better. It was an easy over the total. (93 wins this year)
http://www.pokerforum.ca/f12/my-mlb-prop-bets-2016-a-33423/#post399739
To clarify:
1. Utly slides breaks a guys leg and his two games suspension is over turned and deemed a legal slide because he could touch the bag. No pentaly whatsoever..
2. Bautista slides into the bag and his trail hand hits the foot of the thrower who throws it into the dugout. It goes to replay and ends up being overturned two forced outs on the play Jays lose.
Just terrible. Last night they say a fan interfered and were wrong, but it didn't stop the stadium officials from kicking him out of the game.
Don't like were this is headng!
2015 rules (and no different in 2016):
If you watch the replay, the second baseman released the ball before Bautista touched his foot. This play should never have been over turned.
https://twitter.com/MLBReplays/status/717541498842001408/photo/1