What if?
I had lunch with a friend last week and it got me thinking about how I approach the game and how I can improve. I'm posting to get some comments/suggestions and to get on "record" with my wacky thoughts.
I started playing about four years ago, and since then I've played about 500,000 hands. And, I'm now around 4.2 BB/100 hands over the last 25,000 hands at various limits and sites. Not bad, but I feel there's more. I do a ton of reading on the game, but I mostly play. I think there are many other ways to improve my game.
What if I studied the game more? What if I studied my play more? What if I didn't play tired, and I was fresh for every single game? What if I understood my style inside out? What if I understood my opponents better? What if I did a critique of my play for the week? What if I limited the length of my sessions? What if I was in better physical condition? What if I managed my emotions better? What if I sought more professional advice?
I'm not sure how much I could improve my BB/100 hands (roughly one hour on two tables). Dave S.'s estimate is that 2 BB/hr in a Casino is on the high end. That works out to about 5BB/100 hands with a rake/tip reduction of online play. So, I think I can get to 5BB/100 hands.
So, as always, there has to be a goal. Why not a lofty goal that's not impossible, but a nice stretch. Daniel Negraneu had a goal of turning $500 into $50,000 through online play. I think that's too small of a goal for a player like Daniel.
So, here goes. Last year my goal was to get into the 2004 WSOP, which I accomplished. This year I thought my goal should be winning the 2005 WSOP. However, I like to use my approach to life in general to guide me. I love the saying, I spent a lifetime becoming an overnight success. So, I think I'll focus on improving and getting better. My goal is to win 5BB/100 hands and turn $1,500 into $100,000, but the end of 2005.
I think I'll split my time 50/50 between playing and the "what if" things I metion. The top things which come to mind are, a) not playing tired, b) getting into shape, c) understanding my strength's/weaknesses, d) seeking professional advice through magazines/articles/coaching, e) Zen activities.
I'll update the group as I go.
Cheers
Magi
Side Note: On the Poker Royal, there was this old pro playing the final table. He estimated that he played over a million hands during his life. With Internet play, I've been able to amass half his lifetime of hands in four years!! Time for some more thinking time!
I started playing about four years ago, and since then I've played about 500,000 hands. And, I'm now around 4.2 BB/100 hands over the last 25,000 hands at various limits and sites. Not bad, but I feel there's more. I do a ton of reading on the game, but I mostly play. I think there are many other ways to improve my game.
What if I studied the game more? What if I studied my play more? What if I didn't play tired, and I was fresh for every single game? What if I understood my style inside out? What if I understood my opponents better? What if I did a critique of my play for the week? What if I limited the length of my sessions? What if I was in better physical condition? What if I managed my emotions better? What if I sought more professional advice?
I'm not sure how much I could improve my BB/100 hands (roughly one hour on two tables). Dave S.'s estimate is that 2 BB/hr in a Casino is on the high end. That works out to about 5BB/100 hands with a rake/tip reduction of online play. So, I think I can get to 5BB/100 hands.
So, as always, there has to be a goal. Why not a lofty goal that's not impossible, but a nice stretch. Daniel Negraneu had a goal of turning $500 into $50,000 through online play. I think that's too small of a goal for a player like Daniel.
So, here goes. Last year my goal was to get into the 2004 WSOP, which I accomplished. This year I thought my goal should be winning the 2005 WSOP. However, I like to use my approach to life in general to guide me. I love the saying, I spent a lifetime becoming an overnight success. So, I think I'll focus on improving and getting better. My goal is to win 5BB/100 hands and turn $1,500 into $100,000, but the end of 2005.
I think I'll split my time 50/50 between playing and the "what if" things I metion. The top things which come to mind are, a) not playing tired, b) getting into shape, c) understanding my strength's/weaknesses, d) seeking professional advice through magazines/articles/coaching, e) Zen activities.
I'll update the group as I go.
Cheers
Magi
Side Note: On the Poker Royal, there was this old pro playing the final table. He estimated that he played over a million hands during his life. With Internet play, I've been able to amass half his lifetime of hands in four years!! Time for some more thinking time!
Comments
But your thought process and post has got me thinking. With a new year starting and me getting more serious at improving my skill at this hobby, maybe i should set a goal for the year.
I'm going to give it some thought. When i decide my personal target i'm going to post it and my progress. This way if i fail to reach my targets, i'll be forced to show it.
I totally agree, it'll be extremely hard. I don't think it will be impossible. I'm playing 5/10 right now, under adverse conditions and beating the game for 4.2 BB/100 hands. I'm thinking if I improve the conditions (not tired, more analytical, more information, etc.), I should be able to add a BB.
Then I'll need to move up in limits. I'll have to figure out how to maintain the same edge I have in the bigger games. I will likely have to go to a shorter game. But I know people who are clearing six figures on a monthly basis, so I know it's possible at the higher limits. The trick is to figure out how to get there.
Cheers
Magi
Good luck with the whole not sleeping for a year thing.
Regards,
all_aces
Holy crap.
all_aces i know you've mentioned the story in passing in canadian poker player, but i was wondering if you might share a more complete story with the forum about your 'initial run'
what limits did you start at, was it strictly limit play that built that, how did you progress through the limits, how many people did you run over driving to work in the morning, etc...
Regards,
all_aces
Then something happend allong the way. I built my bankroll from $50 bucks (only one deposit ever) to $3,000 and lost the whole thing in a week. My game was the heads up 3/6, and 5/10 at paradise, as well as some 10/20 for posterity. Losing the roll, was mostly from being tired.
So, I quit playing for three months. And, then when started playing, I played less. It was a quantum leap for me -- I built $50 bucks into $3,000 in less than a month playing way less than I was playing before. Then came some planning. I planned out my strategy before I started. Another quantum leap.
But now, that I'm much more consistent, I'm playing too much and not thinking enough. I'm thinking if I can get back into the "thinking" and playing fresh, I can squeeze more dough out.
I trully think most of us underestimate the effects of a lack of sleep. Personally, I'd prefer to play drunk than tired.
Cheers
Magi
Half a million hands, no wonder you guys are so good. Maybe now I can enjoy it a little more when I lose a few bucks. What the hell, it's entertainment for me, not a job. I know I enjoy it when I win. :-)
I appreciate the great info that the top players in this forum share with the casual players such as myself.
Good luck to those of you going to the WSOP. I'll be watching and rooting for ya.
Regards
Thanks stone. I always believe it's extremely important to understand why you are playing. So, you're way ahead of the game knowing it's entertainment.
Cheers
Magi
I have been playing for about 10 years, with irregular frequency. I was pretty heavy into games during my university years (school wasn't free, you know) and I would like to consider myself at the mid-range of the skill chart. I made the realization a few years ago that I wanted to play more for fun than profit, but old habits die hard.
As I find myself getting sucked into games more and more now, I have to re-evaluate the cost and benefit. What's a few bucks versus sleep deprivation and river-agony? I appreciate being made aware of these sorts of things from time to time. It is too easy to fall into a routine that you really would not otherwise choose.
As far as your goals, I think if you can turn $1500 into $100k, you have more discipline and patience then I ever could. Thanks for the perspective and here's hoping.
It's amazing once you make a statement, how it pushes you into action. There were many things that I wanted to try and do, but never really got the nudge. Now, because I have an incredibly difficult goal to achieve, and I really don't want to become sleep deprived, I need to make use of every little edge I can find.
So, here goes my description of what I'm doing.
1) Managing Self -- I bought the following:
www.wilddevine.com The Wild Divine Project, is a game you control using bio-feedback. You train yourself to relax and can control the game. Way cool. The other thing you can do (at home that is) is put the bio-feedback rings on, and watch your phsyical reposnes to certain hands. I'll report back on how this works. I have no problem managing Huge Adrenaline Response, but this is a way of managing that long stare down for me.
Zen and the Art of Motercycle Maintenance I bought the Audio version of this book. For those that don't know, it's a story about a father and son motercyle trip across the country. It's the fist book on the Zen and the art of books. So, I think this should be a good overall life enhancing book.
Zen and the Art of Poker No need to say more, except if you call a Chapters store, they will place the order for you and you don't have to pay for shipping. If you order online, it's around a $5 shipping fee.
2) Managing Self -- other stuff
I've been getting more sleep lately, and it's been paying off at the tables. YES.
I'm also going on a weight-loss/get in shape program. I plan to lose 20lbs over the next two months.
3) Tuning game -- I purchased Canadian Cardplayer, and Cardplayer subscriptions. I also plan to post more thoughts on plays.
4) Goal setting -- Ok, I have a big goal, but I need to focus. Big goals are just too mind numbing. So, for this month I'm looking to make 4K and keep my 4.2BB/100 hand win rate.
5) I gotta start a blog.
Well, that about wraps up my shopping spree and goal setting. Over the last three nights I've played 800 hands and managed to achieve 11BB/100 hands. Oh, how I'm going to hate the "return to mean" journey. For now I'm riding the wave.
Cheers
Magi
Thanks for the good thoughts. I'm my own worst critic, so I'm not too worried about trying to impress folks for the blog. And, I depend on folks to help me out of my funk if things go bad. But I'm in no hurrry to blog. I really don't have that many thoughts that I need to share.
Cheers
Magi
Really like where this thread is heading though. Gives people insight on some stuff they might not have seen or thought of yet.
Good post magi. I'll keep reading as long as it's in a non-blog format. lol
I chopped my goal down to a one month goal. I don't want the tax man to come a knocking, so I'll put it in BB. For January, I'm aiming for a 4.0BB/100 hands.
First week is not bad, with many revelations. I was off to a quick start, but by the end of the week I have played 2500 hands, and I'm averaging 5.31BB/100 hands. Pretty good.
On the bad side, there have been NO cashes in tournaments this week. I did the shadow thing with Zithal and Pkrfce. Just a bad night. Pokerstars will not let me win right now. So, I'll keep grinding and learning. Even when they won't let me win, I still have lots to learn. Hmmm,.....there could be something there.
ON the good side, I was also at Brantford this week. One nite, and 44BB and averaging 4.4BB/hr. Now if I can keep that up.
Well, I'm halfway to my monthly goal, and It's halfway through the month. Kewl.
Revelations:
1) Now that I'm focused on winning, I'm spending a lot less time farting around on fun stuff. I don't play hunches. I don't play my favourite hands -- Q6, 96s, & 42 unless the situation warrants it. And, I can say there have been NO situations where it was wise to play those hands.
2) When I first started out, I often wondered about the difference between a pro, and an amatuer. Other than the obvious, I think the biggest difference is consistency. I'm playing a much more consistent game now. So, I'm striving for much more consistency in my game.
3) Often I used to think (still do sometimes) that I should sit down, pay 200 hands and win 10BB. Well it just doesn't work that way. I can and have made 60BB in 200 hands. Then there have been the 1000 hands were I broke even. I was pretty consistent throughout. I'm starting to see poker runs in streaks, and staying even during the rough patches is actually pretty awesome. So, I'm pretty happy there.
4) Why do I feel that something like 5.31 BB/100 is shitty? I see so many errors I've made. Mostly the errors come from value betting pretty scary boards at the river. Well, lo and behold my opponents made their incredible draws. I just have to figure out when to value bet, and when to check a little better. It's a tough one.
5) Definitely playing tired affects my game. My biggest runs have come when I was totally sharp.
That's it for now. Gotta watch Las Vegas, and try the $3 stars tourney!
Cheers
Magi
Just as I had predicted last week, I did go through the return to mean journey. Last week I played 3K hands and averaged a whopping .76 BB/100. So, now I'm at 3.92 BB/100 online. Thank goodness for brantford. Another good session at 6BB/hr this week. So, B&M good/online bad -- lol.
Some more revalations this week.
1) The return to mean journey is never pleasant. Aces cracked four times in a row. Sets, straights, you name it, you know it, you've experienced it, they got cracked. My normal response is to go up in limits, and play short handed to make up ground. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Only problem when it doesn't is that I lose a good portion of my roll. So, this time, as I heeded the warnings, I tried something different.
I mucked all marginal staring hands in marginal situations. KJo in early middle position, two gappers, AJo early. I stopped calling in difficult situations even with pot odds, like a flush draw with a paired board and four players in the pot. I couldn't believe how many BB i save by tightenig up. I lost almost NO equity in pots I might have won, as I often saw the winning hand.
I did explode a few times -- it was really hard managing my emotions throught a real bad run of 3,000 hands against some awefull playing. I tilted for about 20 hands and promptly lost 15BB. It really doesn't take that much to lose allot quickly.
2) I used gametime and pokertracker to get information on my opponents. One thing I found out is that it can help spot weaknesses, but doesn't paint a full picture. Found a real loose raiser. He raises, I re-raise with junk to isloate and do just that. He bets the flop, I call. The turn pairs the board. He bets, I raise (fairly certain he has nothing). HE CALLS. The turn is a brick and HE CALLS my bet with A3, just an ace high. Yikes, I added a note to his file!!
That's it for now.
See you next week.
Ummm you are folding your hand in profitable situations and you are happy? Thats not going to get you to 100K.
One of the neat things about playing poker is that you start to get really good at predicting how people would react to things. As I posted, I expected two negative posts --- one from you. So, I'm only 1/2 correct, but there's still time.
Folding is the single most profitable play for low limit players. See All_aces article in Canadian poker player, for further reference. I'm talking about folding in marginal situations, where at best over the long run you will make a small profit. When going through a rough bout, it seems that I cannot make these marginal situations profitable. The problem is that when I'm running bad, the line gets blurry between a marginal profitable situation and a marginal unprofitable situaiton. Moving the line a bit into the territory where the marginal situation becomes profitable and folding in those spots, really doesn't give up much. At least that's what I've read and experienced.
BTW, I must say your posts get me going, so I must start a pissing contest. What do your results speak? I have a 4.56BB/100 hand average on all limits over 40,000 hands (includes short and full games). By all accounts that's pretty darn good, and even includes some bad tilt sessions. On mid limits I have 3.62BB/100 hands average over the past 25,000. On low limits 3/6 and lower, I'm averaging 5.76 BB/100 hands over 10,000 hands.
Cheers
Magi
This is the stupidest thing I have ever read. How many pots have you won by folding?
When most people speak of having pot odds, that usually means that they have an idea how many outs their hand has and what the pot is offering. So if you are finding yourself in these situations and FOLDING, you are losing profit in the long run. +EV is +EV regardless of variance.
And I must say that I HIGHLY doubt all_aces article says that if the pot is laying you 12 to 1 and your inside straight draw comes in 11 to 1, you should fold. I havent read the article, so I dont know.
I'll be more than happy to cease trying to help you improve your game and your thinking.
I just got pokertracker and I havent been playing much in whatever hand histories I could find but, it says that I'm a 2.5BB/100 at 1/2 over 8k hands at party and the cryptos.
Folding in the right spots has many, many different advantages. The main theme from Lee Jones book is that many inexperienced players are looking for a reason to play the hand, and you can gain a huge advantage by looking for reasons not to play the hand.
Here's a quote from Aces article:
Many times, as Aces suggests, you will get good results with a hand (likely even have pot odds to call on the flop or turn), but the mistake was made before you had to decide if you were getting pot odds. Hands like KJo should be folded in the face of a raise. You can go on thinking about pot odds, but I like to look at the big picture. When did the error occur? Doesn't matter if the results were good or bad.
I'm looking at the whole picture. How many of my outs makes the other players hands better? How many true outs do I have? How many times will I make my hand, and have it make someone else a better hand? Am I drawing dead? I thinking of non-nut flush draws, straight draws where there is a higher straight redraw on the river, flush draws with a paired board. It goes way beyond what you have and what the pot is offering. Knowing the types of hands your opponents can hold, the number of opponents, your position and how the hand can progress is key. So, event though a particular action may look like it's +EV, it's really not in the long run and folding is +EV in those situations.
I gotta be honest and say I'm having trouble seeing the help. "stupidest" and "hmmm, folding wins hands" really doesn't feel like help to me. But that's just me. The reason I'm posting is that I do want feedback and a discussion. I find your comments to be based on opinion rather than experience (I really don't care how extensive, but someone saying "hhmm... I played like this and it worked" is really cool). I have trouble seeing past the "jibes" in your posts, to the actual feedback.
Your posts are helping me manage my emotions, so that's cool. That's something I need to do much better. So, I do thank you for the posts.
No, you don't understand BBC Z. We appreciate when people help improve our game. It's just that you don't improve anyone's game with all your negativity. The majority of your posts rarely have anything positive to say. Sure, you can tell us exactly what we did WRONG and how stupid we were for doing it. But you rarely post anything that is entirely constructive (without disparaging remarks). And now, cue your sarcastic, cynical response...
Phil
thanks,
johnny
And now you twist your words. You said that folding is the single most profitable play a low limit player can make. I disagreed and asked how many pots you won by folding? If folding is so profitable, theres no need to play a hand ever..
You are compounding your mistakes. Yes, there was a mistake preflop but you are SEVERELY compounding the error by folding once you've already arrived on the flop. I really do think you need to read Small Stakes Holdem and some Ed Miller posts from 2+2. Preflop errors are rarely ever a players biggest leak. The biggest leaks come from flop play and folding hands where you have pot odds to draw.
Reread this paragraph. It makes no sense. If you have pot odds in a situation, its because you factored all that reasoning in a number. That number is called the number of outs you have percieved to win. Then the outs > the odds the pot is giving you, that is a profitable situation.
I'm trying to make you THINK. You can give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day, if you teach a man to fish, he'll eat for the rest of his life. So yes, my repsonses are short and to the point, but it's by design.
I find too many people make statements in posts and they get offended when they have to defend them. It's through debate that we learn that the correct actions are. If you want a yes man response, please, don't read anything I post because I say things you dont want to hear.
getting back on the topic: Magi posts stating that he folds hands even though he has pot odds. I tell him he's wrong. He comes back with 'The most profitable play for a low limit player is to fold', I tell him he's wrong. I get accused of being too negative.
Give me a BREAK!
Thats a very weak-tight view of poker. Poker isn't a game of minimizing costs, it's a game of maximizing returns.
ha, ha, ha. What John suggests is part of my thinking, and I'd love for you to ask my friends who play with me regularly, if they percieve my play as weak-tight.
Cheers
Magi
This is the stupidest thing I have ever read.
Folding is the single most profitable play for low limit players.
ScottyZ
Are you recommending never playing a hand? There are cheaper activities out there that dont require 1.5BB/10 ..