You do realize that even though all the good US regs are gone from all these tournies, so are all the rich US fish who constantly reloaded. May be a wash methinks..
While this might be true, I have some added strange sense of confidence...have made a couple of deeper runs (than normal) as of the past couple days on Stars...the spots just seemed easier...and besides, I think Stars is my only site with a neg. graph..lol Need to fix that.
-hmm..this might not be true...havent played on tilt for a long time..went through a terrible play bad spell there.
With first place now only paying about 170k...it's hardly worth it again.
Ok. I am in.
haha see Dennis is having a good time guys!:wink2:
I am just having a ball and being entertained by all of this, just sitting back and see what happens, just saying the good things that can come out of this, but yes also bad things and interested to see what comes of it.:)
Hey all. Lots of crazy stuff happening but I feel optimistic. I've been reading/following a lot of the debate on 2p2 since yesterday afternoon.
Stars and Tilt have both stated that player funds are safe. Time will of course tell. I just withdrew $500 from stars via instadebit tonight and will have to see what happens. Both sites also say that for non-us players its business as usual. I don't know about AP/UB but I dont think its smart to have a roll on those sites anywyas especially if you are not from the US and have so many more options.
It appears that most of the legal professionals offering their 2 cents in the legislation forums on 2p2 are of the opinion that the sites may actually have a solid defense against the indictments. The UIGEA does not explicitly define online poker as unlawful gambling. Many believe that the DOJ is going to have a difficult time proving that it is/ever was illegal beyond a shadow of a doubt. We all know that poker is a game of skill, and that this can be proven in any court given the chance to do so by competent counsel. Fortunately for Stars and Tilt, they have not offered any Casino games on their sites such as BlackJack. UB/AP on the other hand has and will likely suffer the consequences.
I believe Stars to be run by very smart business people and find it difficult to believe that they have played their cards out in the manner they have since the enactment of the UIGEA without a plan. Anybody can see that this day would eventually come and given that it is likely a safe bet to assume that they have a more than top notch team of legal advisors that they were well aware of the extent to which the DOJ could reach.
Like I said, I'm going to remain optimistic. Its unfortunate that everybody just couldn't get along and regulation/licensed ipoker couldn't happen years ago. The political influence that the land based casinos have in the US is huge and I believe that they are behind this. Drive out/shut down the competition and then set up shop with the entire American player base to themselves.
As for the state of the games, I don't think that they will get worse, but might actually get better. Any observations made this early will mostly be speculation but a lot of people believe that a larger portion of the American player base are better than average players simply because it takes much more dedication to get your money online there. Many would be fish believe online poker is illegal. Others try one deposit method, it gets declined in don't bother to persist. The regular grinders on the other hand, who have learned to etch out a living or even just a second income are obviously much more persistent. Not only that but the average grinder has a much greater presence on the sites than the average fish due to the number of tables played. Most fish/recreational players play like 1-2 tables while for the average grinder the minimum is probably 4 and the norm is probably like 6-10 with many mass tabling.
I think that I personally may benefit from this because I play most of my sessions during the day EST. American fish generally do not play during the day. They play when they get home from work or school. American grinders are much more common during day time hours. Most of the daytime fish for our time zone are actually from Europe and Asia imo. Now I won't have to compete with the American Regs for their money. It's really not much more than an educated guess at this point but again, I'm being optimistic.
I think that I personally may benefit from this because I play most of my sessions during the day EST. American fish generally do not play during the day. They play when they get home from work or school. American grinders are much more common during day time hours. Most of the daytime fish for our time zone are actually from Europe and Asia imo. Now I won't have to compete with the American Regs for their money. It's really not much more than an educated guess at this point but again, I'm being optimistic.
I was actually thinking of players like yourself when making this thread...do you think the volume with decent selection will be available to you to maintain your volume levels?
I was actually thinking of players like yourself when making this thread...do you think the volume with decent selection will be available to you to maintain your volume levels?
Yes. There are still plenty of tables running. For the most part, I just see less regs online. I haven't played today but yesterday I played for a few hours after US players were banned and shipped 12 buyins - mostly on Euro tables ( something I forgot to mention in my post). There are two kinds of players that play Euro tables. Europeans, and non-European grinders. A huge portion of the latter has just been eliminated.
It appears that most of the legal professionals offering their 2 cents in the legislation forums on 2p2 are of the opinion that the sites may actually have a solid defense against the indictments. The UIGEA does not explicitly define online poker as unlawful gambling. Many believe that the DOJ is going to have a difficult time proving that it is/ever was illegal beyond a shadow of a doubt. We all know that poker is a game of skill, and that this can be proven in any court given the chance to do so by competent counsel. Fortunately for Stars and Tilt, they have not offered any Casino games on their sites such as BlackJack. UB/AP on the other hand has and will likely suffer the consequences.
It's really not much more than an educated guess at this point but again, I'm being optimistic.
You are being far too optimistic. The issue is not whether or not poker is a skill game or not. Or whether or not it is illegal gambling. Those DOJ warrants are federal Interpol warrants for money laundering, bribery of US banking officials, etc. The owners named are as good as cooked. Now whether or not the Stars and Tilt player pool survives as entities in some form is another question and if money is returned is also in question. My opinion is the US players money may be confiscated, however if a deal is worked out they still may get lucky. For us here in Canada we will more than likely be re-imbursed but it will be a long wait. My gut feel is that all three sites will be down completely by mid week. The long arm of Interpol is pretty powerfull..
Copied from the DOJ statement:
**************************************
Arrest warrants have been issued with Interpol and international law enforcement. Bank fraud is extraditable, which makes up over half of the indictment.
***************************************
I have to agree with the Ole Boy here.
Lawyers posting crap on a poker forum site, especially US lawyers.
look at what the US lawyer who is running the NHL has done. I rest my Case.
I think they are pretty much cooked and we will not be playing on any of them for a long time.
Good news is that Ont will have it's site (PROBABLY BOT INFESTED AND RIGGED TO THE NINES) by next year.
Pretty much Stars, TILT and UB are totally PHUKED
Funeral on Friday....:o
Perhaps I am being overly optimistic, but if that is the case so are many practicing lawyers piping in on 2p2. I'm nowhere near competent to formulate my own arguments on this subject but I am reasonably competent when it comes to judging the 1000's of posts I've read written by practicing lawyers who are also PPA members over the past couple of years. Yes, I'm definitely optimistic, no doubt about that but to say that I am overly optimistic assumes that the sites have zero outs here and that is imo overly pessimistic.
The question of the illegality of online poker is very relevant here because money laundering implies money acquired from illegal activity. Since the UIGEA does not explicitly define online poker as unlawful internet gambling, the DOJ will have to establish this in court, and it is not necessarily going to be an easy thing to do so. Part of the charges include 'bets and wagers' which Pokerstars or Full Tilt never engaged in. They merely provided a p2p environment for bets and wagers to take place. Yes, they did misrepresent their business actions via the payment processors - ie deposits onto stars looking like purchases for golf balls or phone cards - however, it is not so far fetched that they get around this by saying they were unaware of how the payment processors were operating.
WRT the player accounts, Poker Stars adheres to the regulations of the Isle of Man Gambling Commission which states that player funds are held in trust, in segragated funds which are immune to seizure, and I seriously doubt that the nation(s) where these funds are held are going to agree to hand them over to the US govt when it is clear that they belong to the players.
It won't be an easy win for either side but I am willing to place a little bet that Stars and Tilt will still be running this time next month - business as usual. It's been estimated that litigation will probably ensue over the next 1-3 years, which gives the American land based casinos plenty of time to set up shop and monopolize the US player base. Its important to remember that this is the real reason all this is happening now. Its no coincidence that legislation is very close to go to going through congress in the coming months/year. The big casinos have a lot of politicians in their pockets and a lot of political muscle that they are merely flexing to get what is best for them. Let's be honest, if legislation passed a year ago, Harrah's would be way behind Stars/Tilt in terms of player base.
Anyhow, try not to be so negative. I say run it twice.
Well we'll see won't we, however the US DOJ conviction rate in federal court is between 80 & 90% so I don't like the odds... They don't frivolously throw out charges unless they are awfully sure of conviction. Don't get me wrong, I really hope you are right but I have a bad feeling...
Oh, and I'm reading those same threads and you have to remember these are people who have a vested interest in the survival of said poker sites.
US is finished with Stars Tilt and UB/AP . It's not coming back.
We shall also be done very soon.
They will chase them to the ends of the universe.
People on P2P are talking about launching a class action civil suit.
Who is gonna pay for that?
Maybe the can hire My Cousin Vinny to do it Pro Bono . LOL
US DOJ conviction rate in federal court is between 80 & 90% so I don't like the odds...
Ya this has already been discussed a fair bit over at 2p2 and you have to keep in mind that the vast majority of convictions never go to trial due to plea bargaining and individuals who simply cannot afford competent counsel. In the case of the sites, it doesn't look like there will be any plea bargaining happening and they can afford very competent counsel.
I would be so bold as to guess that the 10-20% that actually beat the DOJ in court would be big companies with the means to put up a very good fight in the courts and Stars/Tilt no doubt fall into that category.
Oh, and I'm reading those same threads and you have to remember these are people who have a vested interest in the survival of said poker sites.
Quite true, however I've been reading for a couple of years and many of the most respected posters have been very realistic with regards to the future of online poker and if/when legislation passes.
US is finished with Stars Tilt and UB/AP . It's not coming back.
We shall also be done very soon.
They will chase them to the ends of the universe.
It's not quite that simple you know... There are legal guidlines and laws the DOJ has to follow as well... It's not like they can send the marines to confiscate funds. It may actually take a while and may even (I hope) end in a deal.
I just don't see these guys up and shutting the doors because they have a lower player base now. They are still reaping the profits from everyone else..Sure, the income has dropped, but not enough to shut the doors and find a new business. Without this going down in court (1-3 years as has been figured?) they won't shut permanently...and even then I doubt it.
Reading through that paperwork some of the indictments were put through in the middle of March..(March 10th)..you don't think these guys saw this coming? I am sure they didn't expect the man from down under to flip and make it easy..but still, I am betting they had accounts in place for just this thing happening.
I think the fact that they are letting the non US players continue to withdraw and deposit and play says enough about the near future for them. They need to keep making their rake. This is way too easy of money...they just have to avoid the US market.
I reeeally hope things get sorted for us and we can play Stars/FTP as normal without u.s. players. From a small sample playing yesterday/today, games are better than they've been for a while.
I reeeally hope things get sorted for us and we can play Stars/FTP as normal without u.s. players. From a small sample playing yesterday/today, games are better than they've been for a while.
You just have to get by the Romanian/ Czech and Polish shove monkeys.
Stars lowered their guarantees for Sunday tourneys - Sunday million is back to being 1 million guarantee (only 160K right now from registration), Sunday warmup is now 500K guaranteed (only 60K from registration)
I reeeally hope things get sorted for us and we can play Stars/FTP as normal without u.s. players. From a small sample playing yesterday/today, games are better than they've been for a while.
This x 1 million, seriously I was roaming around full tilt last night and it looked like 2005-2006 all over again!
I actually have to agree, games seem MUCH better the past two days. I have made a few deep runs which hasnt happened in forever. Maybe just coincidence though...
I reeeally hope things get sorted for us and we can play Stars/FTP as normal without u.s. players. From a small sample playing yesterday/today, games are better than they've been for a while.
ya like i played 4 tables and no one said a word.......no douchbags lol.....f*ck america!
ya like i played 4 tables and no one said a word.......no douchbags lol.....f*ck america!
lol...one table I was on yesterday, someone commented to the effect of "F*cking donkey c***sucker"...three other players piped up.."I thought the Americans were gone?"
Stars lowered their guarantees for Sunday tourneys - Sunday million is back to being 1 million guarantee (only 160K right now from registration), Sunday warmup is now 500K guaranteed (only 60K from registration)
Might be overlay city today.
I'm not certain but I have a hunch that Stars will hit them. I dunno how they do but they seem to have a knack for hitting guarantees. We'll see I guess!
I play almost exclusivley 1 table S n G's and the biggest difference so far is time waiting for 9 playes to sit down (on stars). It now takes up to 7 or 8 minutes for a $20 game to start, a little longer for a $30 game. Otherwise, not as many familiar names on the tables, but still about the same amount of fish, I'm hoping to see more today : )
I cancelled my pending cashout after the initial panic. I hope it'll be ok, I just didn't want my bankroll off the site, I need it to play obviously. Re submitted a smaller amount to cashout to save a bit if things go bad in the next little while. Hopefully all will be well for us Canadians.
I cancelled my pending cashout after the initial panic. I hope it'll be ok, I just didn't want my bankroll off the site, I need it to play obviously. Re submitted a smaller amount to cashout to save a bit if things go bad in the next little while. Hopefully all will be well for us Canadians.
I did the same. Figured since they still hadnt processed it by Saturday morning, that it wasn't going to make a difference if I withdrew now anyways.
Comments
While this might be true, I have some added strange sense of confidence...have made a couple of deeper runs (than normal) as of the past couple days on Stars...the spots just seemed easier...and besides, I think Stars is my only site with a neg. graph..lol Need to fix that.
-hmm..this might not be true...havent played on tilt for a long time..went through a terrible play bad spell there.
haha see Dennis is having a good time guys!:wink2:
I am just having a ball and being entertained by all of this, just sitting back and see what happens, just saying the good things that can come out of this, but yes also bad things and interested to see what comes of it.:)
Stars and Tilt have both stated that player funds are safe. Time will of course tell. I just withdrew $500 from stars via instadebit tonight and will have to see what happens. Both sites also say that for non-us players its business as usual. I don't know about AP/UB but I dont think its smart to have a roll on those sites anywyas especially if you are not from the US and have so many more options.
It appears that most of the legal professionals offering their 2 cents in the legislation forums on 2p2 are of the opinion that the sites may actually have a solid defense against the indictments. The UIGEA does not explicitly define online poker as unlawful gambling. Many believe that the DOJ is going to have a difficult time proving that it is/ever was illegal beyond a shadow of a doubt. We all know that poker is a game of skill, and that this can be proven in any court given the chance to do so by competent counsel. Fortunately for Stars and Tilt, they have not offered any Casino games on their sites such as BlackJack. UB/AP on the other hand has and will likely suffer the consequences.
I believe Stars to be run by very smart business people and find it difficult to believe that they have played their cards out in the manner they have since the enactment of the UIGEA without a plan. Anybody can see that this day would eventually come and given that it is likely a safe bet to assume that they have a more than top notch team of legal advisors that they were well aware of the extent to which the DOJ could reach.
Like I said, I'm going to remain optimistic. Its unfortunate that everybody just couldn't get along and regulation/licensed ipoker couldn't happen years ago. The political influence that the land based casinos have in the US is huge and I believe that they are behind this. Drive out/shut down the competition and then set up shop with the entire American player base to themselves.
As for the state of the games, I don't think that they will get worse, but might actually get better. Any observations made this early will mostly be speculation but a lot of people believe that a larger portion of the American player base are better than average players simply because it takes much more dedication to get your money online there. Many would be fish believe online poker is illegal. Others try one deposit method, it gets declined in don't bother to persist. The regular grinders on the other hand, who have learned to etch out a living or even just a second income are obviously much more persistent. Not only that but the average grinder has a much greater presence on the sites than the average fish due to the number of tables played. Most fish/recreational players play like 1-2 tables while for the average grinder the minimum is probably 4 and the norm is probably like 6-10 with many mass tabling.
I think that I personally may benefit from this because I play most of my sessions during the day EST. American fish generally do not play during the day. They play when they get home from work or school. American grinders are much more common during day time hours. Most of the daytime fish for our time zone are actually from Europe and Asia imo. Now I won't have to compete with the American Regs for their money. It's really not much more than an educated guess at this point but again, I'm being optimistic.
I was actually thinking of players like yourself when making this thread...do you think the volume with decent selection will be available to you to maintain your volume levels?
Yes. There are still plenty of tables running. For the most part, I just see less regs online. I haven't played today but yesterday I played for a few hours after US players were banned and shipped 12 buyins - mostly on Euro tables ( something I forgot to mention in my post). There are two kinds of players that play Euro tables. Europeans, and non-European grinders. A huge portion of the latter has just been eliminated.
You are being far too optimistic. The issue is not whether or not poker is a skill game or not. Or whether or not it is illegal gambling. Those DOJ warrants are federal Interpol warrants for money laundering, bribery of US banking officials, etc. The owners named are as good as cooked. Now whether or not the Stars and Tilt player pool survives as entities in some form is another question and if money is returned is also in question. My opinion is the US players money may be confiscated, however if a deal is worked out they still may get lucky. For us here in Canada we will more than likely be re-imbursed but it will be a long wait. My gut feel is that all three sites will be down completely by mid week. The long arm of Interpol is pretty powerfull..
Copied from the DOJ statement:
**************************************
Arrest warrants have been issued with Interpol and international law enforcement. Bank fraud is extraditable, which makes up over half of the indictment.
***************************************
Lawyers posting crap on a poker forum site, especially US lawyers.
look at what the US lawyer who is running the NHL has done. I rest my Case.
I think they are pretty much cooked and we will not be playing on any of them for a long time.
Good news is that Ont will have it's site (PROBABLY BOT INFESTED AND RIGGED TO THE NINES) by next year.
Pretty much Stars, TILT and UB are totally PHUKED
Funeral on Friday....:o
On-line poker will return in a legalized format, probably in 2-3 yrs., with Partypoker being a leading player in the New Order.
On-line bookies will be next, given the current DoJ stance.
This is what happens when you give governments the finger . . . they generally get the last laugh.
The question of the illegality of online poker is very relevant here because money laundering implies money acquired from illegal activity. Since the UIGEA does not explicitly define online poker as unlawful internet gambling, the DOJ will have to establish this in court, and it is not necessarily going to be an easy thing to do so. Part of the charges include 'bets and wagers' which Pokerstars or Full Tilt never engaged in. They merely provided a p2p environment for bets and wagers to take place. Yes, they did misrepresent their business actions via the payment processors - ie deposits onto stars looking like purchases for golf balls or phone cards - however, it is not so far fetched that they get around this by saying they were unaware of how the payment processors were operating.
WRT the player accounts, Poker Stars adheres to the regulations of the Isle of Man Gambling Commission which states that player funds are held in trust, in segragated funds which are immune to seizure, and I seriously doubt that the nation(s) where these funds are held are going to agree to hand them over to the US govt when it is clear that they belong to the players.
It won't be an easy win for either side but I am willing to place a little bet that Stars and Tilt will still be running this time next month - business as usual. It's been estimated that litigation will probably ensue over the next 1-3 years, which gives the American land based casinos plenty of time to set up shop and monopolize the US player base. Its important to remember that this is the real reason all this is happening now. Its no coincidence that legislation is very close to go to going through congress in the coming months/year. The big casinos have a lot of politicians in their pockets and a lot of political muscle that they are merely flexing to get what is best for them. Let's be honest, if legislation passed a year ago, Harrah's would be way behind Stars/Tilt in terms of player base.
Anyhow, try not to be so negative. I say run it twice.
Oh, and I'm reading those same threads and you have to remember these are people who have a vested interest in the survival of said poker sites.
We shall also be done very soon.
They will chase them to the ends of the universe.
People on P2P are talking about launching a class action civil suit.
Who is gonna pay for that?
Maybe the can hire My Cousin Vinny to do it Pro Bono . LOL
Ya this has already been discussed a fair bit over at 2p2 and you have to keep in mind that the vast majority of convictions never go to trial due to plea bargaining and individuals who simply cannot afford competent counsel. In the case of the sites, it doesn't look like there will be any plea bargaining happening and they can afford very competent counsel.
I would be so bold as to guess that the 10-20% that actually beat the DOJ in court would be big companies with the means to put up a very good fight in the courts and Stars/Tilt no doubt fall into that category.
Quite true, however I've been reading for a couple of years and many of the most respected posters have been very realistic with regards to the future of online poker and if/when legislation passes.
I guess we will be Playing at party poker now..
Not sure I want to play on any of the other sites.
Reading through that paperwork some of the indictments were put through in the middle of March..(March 10th)..you don't think these guys saw this coming? I am sure they didn't expect the man from down under to flip and make it easy..but still, I am betting they had accounts in place for just this thing happening.
I think the fact that they are letting the non US players continue to withdraw and deposit and play says enough about the near future for them. They need to keep making their rake. This is way too easy of money...they just have to avoid the US market.
I am reading that Americans think they can just come up here and rent an apartment to play poker and access their accounts. LOL
uh, not possible, unless they get citizenship.
You need to verify your accounts to cashout.
You need ID to verify your accounts.
You need citizenship to get ID.
LOL indeed.
You just have to get by the Romanian/ Czech and Polish shove monkeys.
get by?? no no use them, they are helping my bankroll
Might be overlay city today.
This x 1 million, seriously I was roaming around full tilt last night and it looked like 2005-2006 all over again!
KAAAAAAACHING!!!!!! $$$$$$$
lol...one table I was on yesterday, someone commented to the effect of "F*cking donkey c***sucker"...three other players piped up.."I thought the Americans were gone?"
I'm not certain but I have a hunch that Stars will hit them. I dunno how they do but they seem to have a knack for hitting guarantees. We'll see I guess!
I cancelled my pending cashout after the initial panic. I hope it'll be ok, I just didn't want my bankroll off the site, I need it to play obviously. Re submitted a smaller amount to cashout to save a bit if things go bad in the next little while. Hopefully all will be well for us Canadians.
I did the same. Figured since they still hadnt processed it by Saturday morning, that it wasn't going to make a difference if I withdrew now anyways.