lol Scooby kinda beat me to it, but what makes you assume you can chip away slowly at a table
when you have an M of 10, which is presumably dropping very quickly?
I don't think there is any reason to put CL on a range as tight as AK, AA-QQ
And I'm sure something stupid like UTG having A-rag, CL having KK and an A flopping to
bubble you had to happen here...my condolences
No offense Lou but QQ+, AK? Are you serious? He wants to reraise to put the other guy in but but any reraise commits him to call your push anyways. He can have basically any hand that he thinks is ahead of the other guy's range. He's not concerned about the small chance we wake up with a hand, and he might even get us to fold the best hand with his isolation raise anyways.
GTA is right, and I think AJ and 77 are definitely in. Worst case this guy is overly tight and his range is like AQ+, TT+ and we're still way ahead.
None taken. Yes I'm serious -- it's just a hand range I put the guy on with very limited information -- he's a tag and hero is a tag. Harrington doesn't say to fold in this situation. He's more of advocate of the SB pushing to isolate with a pocket pair down to 77. So, if you're up against that type of player I believe a call is in order, which is what I recommended -- if the hand range goes down even as low as TT.
If you can narrow down SB to AK AA-QQ, with the JJ-TT more unlikely, then I think a fold is in order. It's all about what you narrow down SB's range. With your estimate, it's a clear call.Â
If you're not sure about how wide his range is, and you know he's not that strong of a player, I'm considering folding. Keep in mind that the weaker the player, the narrower his range.
i guess no one is interested in doing the analysis
OK, I don't have Pokerstove, so this is from hand...
Big stack range: AA-88, AQo+ AJs+
Vs big stack:
Vs AA-KK we're a 4.5:1 dog - 12 hands we win ~ 18% = 2.16 wins
vs AK we're a ~ 6:5 favourite. - 16 hands, we win ~ 55% = 8.8 wins
vs AQ-AJ we're ~ a 2.5:1 favourite - 12 hands ~ 0.70(6 AQo, 2 AQs, 4AJs) = 8.4 wins
vs JJ-88 we're a 4.5:1 favourite - 24 hands @ 82% = 19.68 wins.
So out of 64 hands (yes I'm ignoring the case QQ because it's EV neutral). We win 39.04 times and lose 24.96 times
So, we're roughly a 3:2 favourite over big stack's range.
So, 40% of the times we bust out to the big stack.
Of this 40%, some % of the time the short stack will also bust out. I would "think" (yes I don't have pokerstove so I don't know the exact EV breakdowns here) that a large % of the time we bust, it's because we ran into a big hand and short stack is also highly likely to bust. But for arguments sake, lets assume 2/3rds of the time we bust, we both bust (and hence finish third getting the $640). I think this is a probably a conservative estimate btw...
So, 60% of the time we win a BIG pot. Some % of the time when we win the short stack will survive however and we will hurt the big stack. Let's say 1/3 of the time we beat the big stack, the short stack survives.
So, short stack triples from 7k to 21k. We win a side pot of 12k and are roughly the same (1k less), chip wise as previously. The time we win both side and main pot (2/3 of the time we win), we now have 33K of the 40k in play. For argument's sake, let's say that based on the % of chips, we now have 33/40 (82.5%) of the equity of the 10K seat.
So the breakdown of outcomes:
A) 40% of time, we win big with short stack busting: Equity: 0.825 of 10k + .175 * 640 (we're guaranteed a rebuy) = $8362 20% of time we hurt the big stack, the short stack survives: with the stack sizes being 12k (us), 21k (short stack) and now the other 2 are on short stacks (wasn't given their stack sizes)
The difference in chips is that we have slightly less, but now we're a solid 2nd over the 2 short stacks. From an EV standpoint I'd argue that this is actually somewhat better, but let's say this change in EV is roughly equivalent to where we were before ($ wise). Let's call this EV "X" (where X is defined as the EV we had prior to the hand in winning the tourney).
C)26.7% of the time, we bust, but so does the shorty. We win $640 bucks. Yippee.
D)13.3% of the time we bubble, EV = 0
Total EV = $3515.68 + 0.2X
IF we assume "X" to be based on % of chips in play prior to hand then 13/40 * 10K = 3250.
Total EV is $4165.68 for sticking it in.
The other option is to fold (we commit nothing, so I guess we're assuming we have roughly the same shot of winning it. So EV is X= $3250.
So by folding, we're passing up on a little over $900 here (based on all of my ridiculous assumptions).
Now, if somebody (cough cough ScottyZ) want's to do a "real" calculation using fine tools like PokerStove go ahead. I'm curious as to whether my rough approximation is anywhere remotely close.
And I'm sure something stupid like UTG having A-rag, CL having KK and an A flopping to
bubble you had to happen here...my condolences
You're probably right Pinhead. This reeks of either a bad beat or a cold deck.
Remember, just because you may have run into AA or KK, doesn't mean you (necessarily) made the wrong decision.
Sometimes the range you'll put a guy on is correct, but unfortunately sometimes you'll run into the upper portion of said range...
This is a very important point. Many times someone will ask me what I thought they were holding. I normally say "it doesn't mater.....it's more about what you could have in that spot". I ususally get a look of puzzlement....much like my first post. Oddly enough, I'm agreeing with the folks who say to call becuase SB range is very wide -- if they're pretty sure of the range. My take is that the BB range is pretty narrow and I have a coin flip decision with 54% to fold and 46% to call -- note that even if his range is narrow it's still a coin flip decision because of the dead money in the pot from the other player. It's not about picking a better spot -- it's all about the range of the SB.
i guess no one is interested in doing the analysisÂ
I was hoping that Voodoo would follow up with more information before I did the analysis. Per Dan Harrington, the first step in making the correct poker decision is to calculate the pot odds. Putting myself in Voodoo's position, my pot odds or breakeven percentage is around 37% [12,100 / (1,200 + 400 + 4000 + 3000 + 12,100 + 12,100)]. The only thing I have to worry about is if the big stack (BS) has A-A or K-K. Just about any other combination that BS and the short stack (SS) has will result in +EV. For example, if BS has AKs and SS has a lower pair, then I have +EV to call:
Qc Qh  0.427
Ad Kd  0.395
9s 9c  0.178
I checked ScoobyD's calculations and given his simplifying assumptions, I agree with his analysis. My effective M is down to 3.4 [12,100 / 1,600 * 4/9]. The BS's effective M is not much higher, and a good strategy for the BS in this bubble situation is to fold or put maximum pressure on the shorter stacks by going all-in. He will have a wider all-in range than K-K+ Unless I have a read on him such that I assign a high probability that he has K-K+, I would maximize my equity by calling instead of folding.
With the second prize of a $1,200 seat being only 1/9 of the first prize, the correct decision is to go for the $10,300 win with Q-Q. Per Harrington, I would PLAY TO WIN!
i'm curious about the stacks. if the OP had 13k and the ss (small stack) had 7k, how much could the others have had if the total chips is 40k? OP must have been very close to the bs (big stack) and ss must have been very close to the other stack unless that guy was on life support. something doesn't add up.
what sort of range do you put the ss on? he's committed more than half his stack. if the OP calls, would he call behind with a crappy hand or fold with 3rd place a virtual guarantee?
does the bs realize the ss is committed to the hand? what kind of hand does he put the ss on? if he takes on just the ss, around half his stack (by the looks of things) is at risk. What kind of hand would he need to do that, especially considering the other big stack is yet to act? what kind of hand should the OP put him on?
all of these factors affect the analysis. i'll make some assumptions and try to crunch some numbers later to support everyone's conclusion. if anyone wants to give suggestions for the assumptions, please do so. (and i won't be dividing by the square root of negative infinity either.)
Sorry been offline a few days.. initially I thought it was next to impossible to lay the hand down but my read was he had a big hand (AA KK or AK) and I figured I was either a dog or in a coinflip situation and I could fold and outplay him if we got heads up. He had made the same move earlier 6 handed and I dumped 10's and he ended up having KK. This time around the UTG player had 10 9 suited and he had A J offsuit and took out the player with Ace high. (A king was the highest card on the board).Â
Hindsight is a great thing but I still believe even short handed I did the right thing because I acted on what was my read at the time (although wrong).Â
Just read some of the comments and there are some very good points and analysis, unfortunately and as any of you know that have played in the 640 you don't get alot of time to mull things over. In fact (and this pissed me off) the guy that wasn't even in the hand called "CLOCK" on me. Regardless I don't think it effected my decision. I didn't win the tourney as my AQ lost to 5 3 on a board of 10 3 Q A he pushed ALL IN and I called only to have him hit a 2 outer on the river as a 3 hit. I have since qualified for the main event so looking forward to that now.
I have since qualified for the main event so looking forward to that now.
Congratulations, Voodoo! Are you going to post a report on that win? I will probably play in at least three $300+ WPT satellites within the next 8 days, including the $640 satellite at Fallsview.
I have since qualified for the main event so looking forward to that now.
Congratulations, Voodoo! Are you going to post a report on that win? I will probably play in at least three $300+ WPT satellites within the next 8 days, including the $640 satellite at Fallsview.
So when are you playing the $640.? This Friday or next?
yes i'm still trying to come up with the model to analyse the decision. a big waste of time i know (most likely due to the large changes in payouts as you go from 2nd and 3rd to 1st) but it may be useful later in other situations.
i've figured out the likelihood of 1st and 2nd place for the players based on chip stacks as described by Harrington. I'm having difficulty working out 3rd place (right now I can't get them to sum to 100%). Can anyone give me a hand? If you are interested, PM me and I can provide the spreadsheet calculations I have so far.
Please PM your calculations so far. Can't you use Sklansky's method of approximating the probability of getting third place? I have gone through the exercise of calculating the probabilities and expected values of three players.
I'm having difficulty working out 3rd place (right now I can't get them to sum to 100%). Can anyone give me a hand? If you are interested, PM me and I can provide the spreadsheet calculations I have so far.
No offense Lou but QQ+, AK? Are you serious? He wants to reraise to put the other guy in but but any reraise commits him to call your push anyways. He can have basically any hand that he thinks is ahead of the other guy's range. He's not concerned about the small chance we wake up with a hand, and he might even get us to fold the best hand with his isolation raise anyways.
GTA is right, and I think AJ and 77 are definitely in. Worst case this guy is overly tight and his range is like AQ+, TT+ and we're still way ahead.
After playing a couple of these in the past two weeks, I must add I was way off base on my range. While I think it's more in the range of AQ+ TT+, even that range makes it a call. The key to the call is to have a hand which is at least one better than the range of the best hand -- which is the case here.
I don't know how to post my HTML table of calculations, but most posters' intuition of calling with QQ is correct.
Here are the prize equities after Hero folded and the Big Stack eliminated UTG.
BS: $6,386.10
Hero: $4,071.59
UTG: $0
Dealer: $1,682.31
If hero had called instead and won, his $EV goes up by +$5,110.75. If hero called and the BS wins the whole pot, hero's $EV goes down -$3,431.59, i.e., he will win the third place prize of a $640 satellite seat.
Hero has more to gain than to lose from an all-in call. The ratio of his potential loss to his potential gain is
$3431.59 / $5110.75 = 0.671
or around 2-to-3.
Hero is getting odds to call, i.e., he can be a 40-to-60 underdog against BS and still be in a profitable position. Even if you put BS's pushing range as unreasonably tight as {TT-AA, AK}, you still have the odds to call with QQ.
For example, if BS has AKs and UTG had T9s, the probabilities of winning are:
Qs Qc 0.404
Ad Kd 0.397
Th 9h 0.199
For the case where UTG wins the main pot, but hero wins the big side pot against BS, hero's $EV goes up by +$179.57.
With the actual hands of AJo and T9s, hero would have increased his prize equity by almost $2,000 had he called and would have been the favourite to win the $10,300 first prize seat.
$EV = 0.549 * $5110.75 - 0.247 * $3431.59 + 0.204 * $179.57
= +$1,994.83
Comments
when you have an M of 10, which is presumably dropping very quickly?
I don't think there is any reason to put CL on a range as tight as AK, AA-QQ
And I'm sure something stupid like UTG having A-rag, CL having KK and an A flopping to
bubble you had to happen here...my condolences
You're probably right Pinhead. This reeks of either a bad beat or a cold deck.
Remember, just because you may have run into AA or KK, doesn't mean you (necessarily) made the wrong decision.
Sometimes the range you'll put a guy on is correct, but unfortunately sometimes you'll run into the upper portion of said range...
None taken. Yes I'm serious -- it's just a hand range I put the guy on with very limited information -- he's a tag and hero is a tag. Harrington doesn't say to fold in this situation. He's more of advocate of the SB pushing to isolate with a pocket pair down to 77. So, if you're up against that type of player I believe a call is in order, which is what I recommended -- if the hand range goes down even as low as TT.
If you can narrow down SB to AK AA-QQ, with the JJ-TT more unlikely, then I think a fold is in order. It's all about what you narrow down SB's range. With your estimate, it's a clear call.Â
If you're not sure about how wide his range is, and you know he's not that strong of a player, I'm considering folding. Keep in mind that the weaker the player, the narrower his range.
Cheers
Magi
OK, I don't have Pokerstove, so this is from hand...
Big stack range: AA-88, AQo+ AJs+
Vs big stack:
Vs AA-KK we're a 4.5:1 dog - 12 hands we win ~ 18% = 2.16 wins
vs AK we're a ~ 6:5 favourite. - 16 hands, we win ~ 55% = 8.8 wins
vs AQ-AJ we're ~ a 2.5:1 favourite - 12 hands ~ 0.70(6 AQo, 2 AQs, 4AJs) = 8.4 wins
vs JJ-88 we're a 4.5:1 favourite - 24 hands @ 82% = 19.68 wins.
So out of 64 hands (yes I'm ignoring the case QQ because it's EV neutral). We win 39.04 times and lose 24.96 times
So, we're roughly a 3:2 favourite over big stack's range.
So, 40% of the times we bust out to the big stack.
Of this 40%, some % of the time the short stack will also bust out. I would "think" (yes I don't have pokerstove so I don't know the exact EV breakdowns here) that a large % of the time we bust, it's because we ran into a big hand and short stack is also highly likely to bust. But for arguments sake, lets assume 2/3rds of the time we bust, we both bust (and hence finish third getting the $640). I think this is a probably a conservative estimate btw...
So, 60% of the time we win a BIG pot. Some % of the time when we win the short stack will survive however and we will hurt the big stack. Let's say 1/3 of the time we beat the big stack, the short stack survives.
So, short stack triples from 7k to 21k. We win a side pot of 12k and are roughly the same (1k less), chip wise as previously. The time we win both side and main pot (2/3 of the time we win), we now have 33K of the 40k in play. For argument's sake, let's say that based on the % of chips, we now have 33/40 (82.5%) of the equity of the 10K seat.
So the breakdown of outcomes:
A) 40% of time, we win big with short stack busting: Equity: 0.825 of 10k + .175 * 640 (we're guaranteed a rebuy) = $8362
The difference in chips is that we have slightly less, but now we're a solid 2nd over the 2 short stacks. From an EV standpoint I'd argue that this is actually somewhat better, but let's say this change in EV is roughly equivalent to where we were before ($ wise). Let's call this EV "X" (where X is defined as the EV we had prior to the hand in winning the tourney).
C)26.7% of the time, we bust, but so does the shorty. We win $640 bucks. Yippee.
D)13.3% of the time we bubble, EV = 0
Total EV = $3515.68 + 0.2X
IF we assume "X" to be based on % of chips in play prior to hand then 13/40 * 10K = 3250.
Total EV is $4165.68 for sticking it in.
The other option is to fold (we commit nothing, so I guess we're assuming we have roughly the same shot of winning it. So EV is X= $3250.
So by folding, we're passing up on a little over $900 here (based on all of my ridiculous assumptions).
Now, if somebody (cough cough ScottyZ) want's to do a "real" calculation using fine tools like PokerStove go ahead. I'm curious as to whether my rough approximation is anywhere remotely close.
This is a very important point. Many times someone will ask me what I thought they were holding. I normally say "it doesn't mater.....it's more about what you could have in that spot". I ususally get a look of puzzlement....much like my first post. Oddly enough, I'm agreeing with the folks who say to call becuase SB range is very wide -- if they're pretty sure of the range. My take is that the BB range is pretty narrow and I have a coin flip decision with 54% to fold and 46% to call -- note that even if his range is narrow it's still a coin flip decision because of the dead money in the pot from the other player. It's not about picking a better spot -- it's all about the range of the SB.
Cheers
Magi
I was hoping that Voodoo would follow up with more information before I did the analysis. Per Dan Harrington, the first step in making the correct poker decision is to calculate the pot odds. Putting myself in Voodoo's position, my pot odds or breakeven percentage is around 37% [12,100 / (1,200 + 400 + 4000 + 3000 + 12,100 + 12,100)]. The only thing I have to worry about is if the big stack (BS) has A-A or K-K. Just about any other combination that BS and the short stack (SS) has will result in +EV. For example, if BS has AKs and SS has a lower pair, then I have +EV to call:
Qc Qh  0.427
Ad Kd  0.395
9s 9c  0.178
I checked ScoobyD's calculations and given his simplifying assumptions, I agree with his analysis. My effective M is down to 3.4 [12,100 / 1,600 * 4/9]. The BS's effective M is not much higher, and a good strategy for the BS in this bubble situation is to fold or put maximum pressure on the shorter stacks by going all-in. He will have a wider all-in range than K-K+ Unless I have a read on him such that I assign a high probability that he has K-K+, I would maximize my equity by calling instead of folding.
With the second prize of a $1,200 seat being only 1/9 of the first prize, the correct decision is to go for the $10,300 win with Q-Q. Per Harrington, I would PLAY TO WIN!
i'm curious about the stacks. if the OP had 13k and the ss (small stack) had 7k, how much could the others have had if the total chips is 40k? OP must have been very close to the bs (big stack) and ss must have been very close to the other stack unless that guy was on life support. something doesn't add up.
what sort of range do you put the ss on? he's committed more than half his stack. if the OP calls, would he call behind with a crappy hand or fold with 3rd place a virtual guarantee?
does the bs realize the ss is committed to the hand? what kind of hand does he put the ss on? if he takes on just the ss, around half his stack (by the looks of things) is at risk. What kind of hand would he need to do that, especially considering the other big stack is yet to act? what kind of hand should the OP put him on?
all of these factors affect the analysis. i'll make some assumptions and try to crunch some numbers later to support everyone's conclusion. if anyone wants to give suggestions for the assumptions, please do so. (and i won't be dividing by the square root of negative infinity either.)
Hindsight is a great thing but I still believe even short handed I did the right thing because I acted on what was my read at the time (although wrong).Â
Voodoo
i've figured out the likelihood of 1st and 2nd place for the players based on chip stacks as described by Harrington. I'm having difficulty working out 3rd place (right now I can't get them to sum to 100%). Can anyone give me a hand? If you are interested, PM me and I can provide the spreadsheet calculations I have so far.
Ryan
After playing a couple of these in the past two weeks, I must add I was way off base on my range. While I think it's more in the range of AQ+ TT+, even that range makes it a call. The key to the call is to have a hand which is at least one better than the range of the best hand -- which is the case here.
Cheers
Magi
15,000 chips - $4,389.31 equity
14,000 - $4,140.56
7,000 - $2,273.25
4,000 - $1,336.88
Total 40,000 chips & $12,140 prize pool.
Here are the prize equities after Hero folded and the Big Stack eliminated UTG.
BS: $6,386.10
Hero: $4,071.59
UTG: $0
Dealer: $1,682.31
If hero had called instead and won, his $EV goes up by +$5,110.75. If hero called and the BS wins the whole pot, hero's $EV goes down -$3,431.59, i.e., he will win the third place prize of a $640 satellite seat.
Hero has more to gain than to lose from an all-in call. The ratio of his potential loss to his potential gain is
$3431.59 / $5110.75 = 0.671
or around 2-to-3.
Hero is getting odds to call, i.e., he can be a 40-to-60 underdog against BS and still be in a profitable position. Even if you put BS's pushing range as unreasonably tight as {TT-AA, AK}, you still have the odds to call with QQ.
For example, if BS has AKs and UTG had T9s, the probabilities of winning are:
Qs Qc 0.404
Ad Kd 0.397
Th 9h 0.199
For the case where UTG wins the main pot, but hero wins the big side pot against BS, hero's $EV goes up by +$179.57.
$EV = 0.404 * (+$5,110.75) + 0.397 * (-$3,431.59) + 0.199 * (+$179.57)
= +$738.14
With the actual hands of AJo and T9s, hero would have increased his prize equity by almost $2,000 had he called and would have been the favourite to win the $10,300 first prize seat.
$EV = 0.549 * $5110.75 - 0.247 * $3431.59 + 0.204 * $179.57
= +$1,994.83