Fallsview 640 Satellite play.. What would you do?
This happened this past friday night and although I think I made the right play would like some opinions.
4 players left in the $640 and I am 2nd in chips with 13,000 (40k total chips in play) . Blinds at 400/800 with 100 ante. I am BB and get QQ, UTG raises to 4k with only 3k more behind him, button folds and SB (chip leader) pushes ALL IN. UTG had played a range of hands all night raising with weak Ace's out of position at times, the SB on the other hand played a tight aggressive style from the start.
Would you fold QQ and virtually guarantee yourself at least 3rd place and a rebuy into the $640 or call and possibly get eliminated in 4th should the original raiser fold?
4 players left in the $640 and I am 2nd in chips with 13,000 (40k total chips in play) . Blinds at 400/800 with 100 ante. I am BB and get QQ, UTG raises to 4k with only 3k more behind him, button folds and SB (chip leader) pushes ALL IN. UTG had played a range of hands all night raising with weak Ace's out of position at times, the SB on the other hand played a tight aggressive style from the start.
Would you fold QQ and virtually guarantee yourself at least 3rd place and a rebuy into the $640 or call and possibly get eliminated in 4th should the original raiser fold?
Comments
Leader's range is likely 77/88-AA, AJ/AQ+
/g2
I also had pocket queens at last night's NL captain's table at Royal Cup II. I was chip leader when Pinhead went all-in, and I called. Unfortunately for me (and probably you), the opponent had
:ac :as
You're joking right?
Two senerios come to mind:
I can't imagine Joe ever laying down QQ when he can go all-in with any two cards blind.
He might lay it down when someone is all-in for 36 chips instead of the 30 he thought he heard called. Â Now that it is 36, he has to fold.
Do you believe that you can out play the table? (This is where reads of the players would come in handy.)
If so then you may want to fold and take a chance else where.
This hand could costing you the game even though you have the best hand right now, one player could have A-Rag the other King-10 if the board comes A-K-rag you're out.
But with my history of QQ, it would take me a minute or two to say it. Still, play to win.
So, you would fold QQ to A-rag or K-rag -- WOW, you must be the best poker player in the world to give up that edge. What about folding to 98 suited, I mean he could outdraw you as well.
Welcome to pokerforum.ca.
Once again, WOW.
No I would call again unless I had some kind of read on the players....I was only saying it would be a nightmare to see a flop of A-K-Rag and the chip leader is holding King-Rag, the other A-Rag.
I suspect you are a head of the chip leader because why would he push with Aces or Kings?
Would you call with pocket Jacks? How about 10's?
Being it is a satellite you soon or later to win you are going to have to go against the chip leader pushing the queen is a pretty good spot to go for it.
What are the odds of an A hitting when you are all in with QQ vs 2 players with Acrap? 150%.
Even if chip lead had AA... you'd get 3rd b/c you had more chips and get your buy-in again anyways. There's two hands that beat you and one that's even strength. PUSH!
Mark
LOL I didn't have QQ there.
This type of satelite you play for first only. I would say Jacks or lower fold. Too many overcards can hurt.
I'll put up CPF$40 for the person who posts the best analysis of folding vs calliing here. Note that you'll have to do a bit of research on the prize structure (i.e. maybe read another post..) and compute the EV in real $$$ of each action. You can make some assumptions about the other stack sizes since this wasn't in the post, I think...
I hope someone takes up the challenge. I'd do it myself if I wasn't so freaking lazy. There is an excellent example of what I'm looking for near the end of HOH3. If you have to ask what that means, never mind. Best of luck.
Two questions come to mind:
1) What's the hand range of the SB in that spot?
2) What is the skill level of the SB?
1) Without being there I'll take a stab. The guy is a TAG. I'm assuming your image is also a TAG. So, he's not going to get out of line to isolate the wacko on something like AJ or 77 -- remeber you can really damge his stack as well. I can narrow down his range to AK, AA--XX? Based on your two images I'm going with QQ as the lowest. So, 16 combinations for AK and 18 combinations for the pairs.
You're a 54% favourite over AK, and a 17% dog to KK-AA and even vs QQ -- notwistanding goofball UTG. Even with the dead money, I believe the math (greg you work it out!) will show QQ is in a -EV position here. In Sklansky's NL book he says you should only call an all-in bet with a hand that's one hand better than the range of your opponent.
Ok, so based on some loose assumptions I believe calling with QQ is -EV here.
2) What is the skill level of the SB? The higher his skill level the more inclined I'm going to call in this spot. I took the worst case scenario in answering 1). If I'm up against someone like Siedel (ok not likely but you get the picture) I'm going to be more liberal here as I think they will be more likely to isolate the UTG guy and really want me out. So, the range goes a bit deeper and even down to something like 88 -- especially after reading harrington's 3'rd book.
Also, if they are less skilled, I know I will have position on them. I know I can chip away at their stack -- that's my particular style as I don't go for the kill in one hand -- I'm more about chinese water torture. So, this begs a third question. What's your preferred style? Big pots? Small pots? If it's Big pots, then I think calling here is necessary.
My personal bias would be to fold here -- but it wouldn't be clear. It is really a coin flip with it weighted to 54% fold and 46% call. Folding alows you to be wrong and still win. I'm not thinking about winning third -- I'm thining winning the tournament. This pot will not decide the tournament unless you call. Calling offers no room for error.
Cheers
Magi
Excellent points. I'd like to see this taken further. I'm hoping someone will come forward and assign a range of hands to the opponents and work out the EV in terms of real $ for folding vs calling. If not, I'll throw something together one of these days...
GTA is right, and I think AJ and 77 are definitely in. Worst case this guy is overly tight and his range is like AQ+, TT+ and we're still way ahead.
UTG has shown himself to be a loose raiser and is short stacked.
Assuming the chip leader is a TAG, he knows this as well and can afford to gamble with him, but wants to isolate vs the wacko, and he'll use his stack appropriately to do so.
QQ is ahead of both ranges here, and with an M of 10 it's not like the stacks are that deep to consider waiting around, avoiding confrontation and stealing blinds. We're going to have to confront the chip leader at SOME point to win this, is this not a good spot to do so?
For the advocates of folding QQ and waiting for a better spot, please enlighten me:
Are we really waiting for AA or KK to get our chips into the pot?
Or are we just assuming that any open raise we make once it gets down to 3 will NEVER be met with any resistance and we can happily run all over the chip leader and the other guy with steals?
And since we don't want to confront the chip leader with QQ here, I'm assuming we're always folding to any raise from him unless we pickup AA or KK?
Oh, and whoever brought up the point about likely picking up the 3rd place rebuy is pretty valid too. Our QQ would need to be beat by both the the big stack and UTG for us to completely bubble, and the chances of that are fairly slim IMO.
Get your chips in as a big favourite and be happy to do so...
Voodoo, time to end the madness buddy, what did Mr. Big Stack have?
MY GOD...IS THAT EVEN POSSIBLE??
Seriously, Lou, I have read and reread your points...I just can't seem to fully comprehend what you're saying. With so little available to beat you, and with so much to gain from it, I would have thought this was a no brainer, but reading your post has me seriously considering re reading Harrington again. I must have missed something there.
All the respect for your opinion Lou, but I can't say I agree with you here.
BTW, how did the hand finish?
And miss an oppurtunity like this one?? Nope, couldn't do it. I'm nowhere NEAR disciplined enough...YET!!
Please explain "chip away slowly" to me...