Check or bet... $50/$100 LHE hand
To value bet the river or not to value bet the river... toughest question I'm faced with on a semi-regular basis.
#Game No : 4281684043
***** Hand History for Game 4281684043 *****
$50/$100 Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, May 16, 01:06:49 ET 2006
Table Love Shack (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: design26 ( $1720 )
Seat 3: oconnorwins ( $948.35 )
Seat 4: Spanish_Torero ( $3037 )
Seat 5: TanShuiWen ( $2888 )
Seat 7: theunit ( $2083.50 )
Seat 9: shibbidy ( $7593 )
Seat 10: LETZkickITup ( $4526 )
Seat 1: Aces_All ( $2863 )
Seat 8: IcebergSpoon ( $2250 )
Seat 6: buoys ( $2500 )
oconnorwins posts small blind [$25].
Spanish_Torero posts big blind [$50].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Aces_All [Â Tc Jc ]
TanShuiWen folds.
theunit raises [$100].
IcebergSpoon folds.
shibbidy folds.
LETZkickITup folds.
Aces_All calls [$100].
design26 calls [$100].
oconnorwins folds.
Spanish_Torero calls [$50].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8c, 2s, Jh ]
>You have options at The Catacombs Table!.
Spanish_Torero checks.
theunit bets [$50].
Aces_All raises [$100].
design26 calls [$100].
Spanish_Torero folds.
theunit calls [$50].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9h ]
theunit checks.
Aces_All bets [$100].
design26 calls [$100].
theunit calls [$100].
** Dealing River ** [ 9s ]
theunit checks.
Check or bet, and why?
What do these players have?
And who hates my play in this hand?
#Game No : 4281684043
***** Hand History for Game 4281684043 *****
$50/$100 Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, May 16, 01:06:49 ET 2006
Table Love Shack (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: design26 ( $1720 )
Seat 3: oconnorwins ( $948.35 )
Seat 4: Spanish_Torero ( $3037 )
Seat 5: TanShuiWen ( $2888 )
Seat 7: theunit ( $2083.50 )
Seat 9: shibbidy ( $7593 )
Seat 10: LETZkickITup ( $4526 )
Seat 1: Aces_All ( $2863 )
Seat 8: IcebergSpoon ( $2250 )
Seat 6: buoys ( $2500 )
oconnorwins posts small blind [$25].
Spanish_Torero posts big blind [$50].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Aces_All [Â Tc Jc ]
TanShuiWen folds.
theunit raises [$100].
IcebergSpoon folds.
shibbidy folds.
LETZkickITup folds.
Aces_All calls [$100].
design26 calls [$100].
oconnorwins folds.
Spanish_Torero calls [$50].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8c, 2s, Jh ]
>You have options at The Catacombs Table!.
Spanish_Torero checks.
theunit bets [$50].
Aces_All raises [$100].
design26 calls [$100].
Spanish_Torero folds.
theunit calls [$50].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9h ]
theunit checks.
Aces_All bets [$100].
design26 calls [$100].
theunit calls [$100].
** Dealing River ** [ 9s ]
theunit checks.
Check or bet, and why?
What do these players have?
And who hates my play in this hand?
Comments
I put "theunit" on pocket 10's, raising it pre-flop, continuation bet to see where he's at, and now sucked in for more because he's up-and-down on the turn.
I like your play all the way through...
Of course, sorry to say this but I think the preflop call is marginal at best. Perhaps playing this low(er) limit made you loosen up your game a bit
stp
I agree that theunit probably has 10s, but I figure the way design26 (button) has been calling down, his range is J10, JQ, or JK, for All_Aces sake, hopefully the former.
So, no... I do not value bet the river. The button isn't going to fold to one more bet even though you've played the hand like you've got AJ.
/g2
A guy can make one or two speculative late position loose calls/session, can't he?
I checked the river, and design26 (the button), checked as well.
theunit did indeed have TT.
design26 had KsQs.
I should have mentioned that my notes on design are "find this player and play against him". He could have easily been calling with 78o or A2o. He's not particularly aggressive though, so he could have had JQ or JK as well, and when I factored in theunit, I decided check and call the river was the best play.
I'm glad others would have done the same... every bet counts in LHE so I'm glad I wasn't indiscriminately throwing one or two away there.
It is pretty obvious from your flop raise that you do not respect the EP player's raise, so why not get the pot heads-up preflop with a reraise?
The fact that you do not get check-raised on the turn either means that your J is good or that the EP player is weak tight and afraid to bet a better J than yours fearing that you have a big overpair or a set.
Check the river as EP could have you beat with a big jack.
Absolutely correct. I don't make it a habit... just thought I'd peel off a flop with those little beauties.
Not to nitpick, but basic reads of how tight/loose passive/aggressive your opponents are would help too. Ie. if you have a rock raising there in EP, and a constant LAG behind you you're going to be in bad shape a lot since EP has you destroyed and LAG is quite likely to make it 3 bets behind you.
As far as the hand, I agree you probably have EP beat (TT came to mind going through). The person to act behind you is tough to peg. He may have a top pair (better kicker) type hand but was afraid to make it 3 bets on the flop given the bet/raise in front of him with the pfr yet to act. He could also have some type of draw like T9, which obviously has cought up to you by the river. In general, I think LP has you beat, or has missed a draw, so I don't see you getting much value out of betting into him (whereas I think you have the pfr beat a lot). If he's aggressive enough to make a last ditch bluff on a missed draw, I prefer a check/call line here. I think a value bet is pretty thin here unless you have both your oppoents pegged as fairly loose callers.
This is a really easy river bet.
Why? I don't even care if I agree with your why, but please, throw me a frickin bone here...one line mindnumbing responses unfortunately do little to further the discussion (unless it manages to initiate a flamewar).
Sigh...this post sums up the forum as of late very succinctly for me... /* end rant */
Sorry, I know I haven't been holding up my end of the forum responsibilities for a month or two. Apologies.
Yeah right. Your hand would be shaking so hard as you pushed $100 onto the felt you'd lose your saturday night date for a few weeks.
The only hand you might get some river value from is exactly TT as far as I can see it. Don't let the fact that an opponent actually had this hand mess up the analysis.
Pre-flop call is...well...erm.....varying your play. Yeah, that doesn't sound too bad.
Re-raising pre-flop is better than calling IMO; e.g. if you feel this opponent is getting out of line with hands pre-flop. Folding JTs, a multi-way impied odds hand, against an EP raiser is the way to go unless you are playing the meta-game against this particular opponent. I'm not even totally in love with exactly JTs as a hand to play back at someone with, but it's better than average in this role.
ScottyZ
I would have played it similarly with a check/call on river..
A very foolish turn bet, and a very lucky river card.
After the two hands in this thread, tell me TcJc isn't the nuts.
#Game No : 4396279592
***** Hand History for Game 4396279592 *****
$50/$100 Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, May 30, 01:18:17 ET 2006
Table Kingfisher (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 4: ascvb ( $2763 )
Seat 5: jpv136 ( $4294.50 )
Seat 6: shibbidy ( $4610 )
Seat 7: nianmin ( $151 )
Seat 9: TheDrive7 ( $4674 )
Seat 10: Outlaw77 ( $2961.50 )
Seat 3: Aces_All ( $2780 )
Seat 1: psychicriver ( $2766.50 )
Seat 8: neednoviagra ( $2300 )
Seat 2: peelone ( $1400 )
jpv136 posts small blind [$25].
shibbidy posts big blind [$50].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Aces_All [Â Jc Tc ]
nianmin calls [$50].
neednoviagra calls [$50].
TheDrive7 folds.
Outlaw77 folds.
psychicriver raises [$100].
peelone calls [$100].
Aces_All calls [$100].
ascvb folds.
jpv136 folds.
shibbidy folds.
nianmin raises [$100].
neednoviagra folds.
psychicriver raises [$100].
peelone calls [$100].
Aces_All calls [$100].
nianmin is all-In [$1]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8s, Th, Jh ]
psychicriver bets [$50].
peelone calls [$50].
Aces_All raises [$100].
psychicriver raises [$100].
peelone calls [$100].
Aces_All raises [$100].
psychicriver calls [$50].
peelone calls [$50].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3h ]
psychicriver checks.
peelone checks.
Aces_All bets [$100].
psychicriver calls [$100].
peelone calls [$100].
** Dealing River ** [ Js ]
psychicriver checks.
peelone checks.
Aces_All bets [$100].
psychicriver calls [$100].
peelone folds.
Aces_All shows [ Jc, Tc ] a full house, Jacks full of tens.
nianmin doesn't show [ Kh, 6h ] a flush, king high.
psychicriver doesn't show [ Kd, Ks ] two pairs, kings and jacks.
Aces_All wins $1247 from side pot #1 with a full house, Jacks full of tens.
Aces_All wins $724 from the main pot with a full house, Jacks full of tens.
Game #4396286898 starts.
Actually, no "live" player in the hand had a flush on the turn, so I guess the turn bet wasn't that bad if you want to get all old school and results-oriented.
:fish:
:fish:
:fish:
I might have waited and raised the turn on a safe looking card instead of capping the flop. Any heart, 9, Q, 7 is going to look pretty ugly (but given the massive pot you probably have odds to chase your 4 outer anyways even if an ugly turn card hits).
That's not a bad way to play it, although I don't mind jamming the flop here either. The turn was a mistake. "peelone" looked like he was drawing to something, and it very easily could have been a flush. I should have checked behind. Fortunately, he must have had KQ, and been drawing for a straight.
The reason my post was so succint was because this is not a topic that deserves much debate. It is an incredibly easy river bet. Learning to value bet the river relentlessly is the biggest move you need to make to crush loose limit games, online or live. Many players fear river value bets, thinking they have done all they need to to protect their hand on the flop and turn, but the truth is your opponents make many, many loose river calls and are often correct to do so, due to the pot odds offered.
Let's examine the action in a little more detail and attempt some hand reading. With no reads this is a little difficult, but still not that hard.
the unit raises preflop (range in a 10 handed game UTG + 1 maybe 66+, KQ, A10+, say 15% chance of suited connectors / smaller pair / random hand)
Aces All cold calls (note, this is almost always a mistake, read SSHE and the preflop explanation for why)
design cold calls (wide range, pocket pairs, suited connectors, suited aces, suited broadway)
spanish_toreo defends his blind (huge range)
So on the flop theunit c-bets. This is probably 95% of the hands he raises preflop with. Aces_All raises, usually a pocket pair above eights, any jack, any better hand, maybe 109s if he's feeling frisky.
Design cold calls, which generally means a weak made hand, a draw, or a hand he's slowplaying til the turn.
theunit just calls :
here we can eliminate pocket pairs above jacks, any strong jack, or a powerful hand, unless he's looking for a turn check raise for value
On the turn, when you bet and both opponents just call it should be blatantly obvious that your hand is best. Any stronger hand (AJ, KJ) is going to be three betting the flop or at the very least putting in more turn action.
On the river, the only thing that has changed is that 109 beats you. Anything else you are still ahead of. Unless your opponents are extremely passive (which is not my experience with the 50/100 game your hand is best here, and you are throwing away money by not betting.
Good luck all.
Thanks for the feedback! I don't think it's as clear-cut as all that, but I certainly welcome different responses, including yours.
Best of luck,
Devin
No worries! Dissenting opinion drives the internet after all and if you are beating the 50/100 over > 100k hands I'd advise just playing exactly how you are, as clearly something is working! : )
Agreed. In a loose LOW limit game, I'd bet here for value too. However, this is a 50-100 game. All_Aces hasn't given much of a description of the table, but in general I'd venture that everyone here isn't a donk. It's certainly possible that's the case though. If the players are loose passive, then I 100% agree this is a value bet.
That's not the point. I agree that it seems likely AA has the best hand. But that certainly doesn't make betting automatic.  The question to ask is what is AA going to bet for value that he's going to get CALLED by and still be ahead. TT, A8s maybe, 77. Overcards aren't calling, neither is a busted straght or flush.  Now, as you say if they're loose passive, they'll call here with a MUCH bigger range (small pairs, any 8, J-little, maybe even A-high).
If you're assuming them to be aggressive, I'm checking here even more so. Why? Because they might assume you have a busted draw and try to steal the pot. They may try to "represent" a 9. If they're aggressive, their range of betting (ie. bluffing) hands is bigger than their range of calling hands, and it's probably more profitable to check here and induce a bluff from your opponents. At least that's how I see it.Â
So, in essence the way I see it, is if your opponents are: LP calling stations - value bet. LA bluffers - value check and hope to induce a bluff (or a thin value bet from a worse hand like an 8 ).
Also, overcards, especially AK, call this river a fair % of the time; not so much three handed, but still a fair %. Also, checking top pair is horrible from a metagame perspective, because if your opponents know you will give them free showdowns they can do more 'call the turn, fold the river' with a middle pair gutshot combo, or even a weak pair, and this means you can't two barrel as much, which is very important iin a game w/ players who have excellent hand reading.
Backdoor heart draws, with overcards. AQ, AK, KQh. I'll concede that busted straight draws are unlikely (with the exception of KQ which had 2 overs plus a gutshot on the turn). Any other straight draw on the flop has caught up (T9, 97, Q9, QT).
Explain this to me, because I'm not following what you're trying to say. If you're saying they can safely fold to a river bet, then this sets up bluffing the whole way with a hand like AK if they're going to call the turn/fold the river with a weak hand. If they're not going to call the river with a weak pair, where's the value in betting? This also sets up that just because you check the river, doesn't mean they can automatically assume you've missed a draw and bluff you out on the end. Again, I think whether you bet or check is highly dependent on your opponents.
Furthermore, I'll assume you're bet/folding here to a check-raise from EP? You save yourself a bet as well when LP bets and EP raises... I know this sounds weak... but somehow assuming that BOTH opponents somehow have some dream weak hand like J-rag or an 8, or a tiny pair, or an unimproved AK and will call, seems highly optimistic.
Now time to catch up on reading what others posted about this hand (man...I am behind)
What I mean by my meta game comment is that if you are routinely checking hands like TP ok kicker on the river against your opponents then the following situation occurs :
Loose player limps, you raise from the SB, expert calls with 86s in the big blind, loose player calls.
Flop is 1062 rainbow, you bet, expert calls, loose player folds.
Turn 9.
Now, the expert player has a decent made hand and a decent draw (up to 9 outs if he is behind). He may be winning at showdown or may improve, but his hand only has showdown value if it actually goes to showdown. Since you are checking the river with your bluffs / moderate made hands like pair of 10's here he doesn't have to pay you off all the time while behind, allowing him to make a few marginal turn calls with hands like these.
Also, if you intend to be betting AK high on all streets (generally a bad idea, as turn calls are almost always either decent draws
or made hands that will call the river) it is especially bad to be checking top pair on the river, as you are now putting in money with no hand and not putting in money with a decent hand, an extremely exploitable strategy.
Generally, when your opponents put in almost no aggression on all streets (excepting the flop continuation bet) and you have a decent made hand (top pair) you hand is usually good. Since it is usually a mistake to fold the river for just one bet your opponents will be calling you with a wide variety of hands and since your hand crushes their hand range it is important to bet.
You're making a giant assumption there that I already conceded. If your opponents are loose-passive, then yes, their calling range is bigger and a bet is likely +EV. The tighter they are, the less hands that are calling that you beat (and there also a lot of hands that will check raise you costing you 2 bets). I believe in HPFAP you need to be something like 55% sure you have the best hand IF CALLED. And that's with one opponent. Here you have 2.Â
If your opponents are more aggressive though, their betting range is often wider (since they'll bluff) than their calling range. The other benefit is that you eliminate the possibility of being checkraised and having to call 2 bets when you're almost certainly beat.
For fun, let's run some hands opponents might have (assuming they're fairly loose):
Hands that will call that we beat: 33-77, TT, A8, A2, K8, 78, T8, 86, J8s-J2s = 121 hands
Hands that will call that beat us: AJ, KJ, QJ (I'm going to leave out AA, KK, QQ since I'd assume an overpair would have reraised) = 24 hands
Hands that won't call: AK, AQ, KQ, 76, AT, KT - 88 hands
Hands that will (check) raise us: T9, 89, QT, T7, Q9, K9, A9, 97 - 68 hands
So... we collect 121 bets - 24 -68*2 = -39/301 = -0.1BB
And yes...that range is fairly big (since I'm assuming we're dealing with loose players here). If you tighten their calling range I assume this gets uglier (although you might be able to eliminate some of the potential check raising hands as well)
Assuming the same range... Now let's assume they're aggressive - and this is a very simplistic approach, but let's assume they will bet any hand they'd call with, any hand that would check raise us, as well as the other hands that won't call (ie they're betting everything in that range). We win 121 - 24 + 88 - 68 = 117/301=+0.38BB if we check call.
This is assuming we're bet/calling a raise. Bet/folding vs. a passive opponent might be a better line, but if they're aggressive, check-calling looks pretty good to me...  And I just went though that "range" quickly, leaving out obvious monsters like overpairs and sets. The fact there's 2 opponents somewhat complicates things too, but I think the chance of having the best hand when called with 2 opponents is even less.
If anything...I don't see how betting here is "a really easy river bet". Just my 2 cents though...
Also, most of the time a nine is going to 'donk' the river, ie. lead out. Since your opponent has not down that, it limits these hands from their hand range. Also, most opponents are not raising A9o, K9, T7, 89, QT, T7, Q9, or 97 from E.P. further reducing his range. It is also unlikely that the opponent would call 2 back with A9 on the flop, or cold call with any of these hands, aside from A9s, Q10s, 89s if they are loose.
I agree if your opponent is especially passive bet folding may be considered, but not without 1000 hands on them or very good reads, neither of which were provided in the OP.
Your opponents are very unlikely to bet a made hand on this river. They may bluff, but that is also unlikely since the pot is three way and all players have shown interest all the way through. The river is also a very 'safe' river and so your opponents are unlikely to bluff at.
Believe it or not, this is an incredibly easy river bet, simply because your opponents have shown absolutely no aggression throughout the hand, and the 50/100 is a very aggro game. I can assure you that ace high does call here a decent % of the time and that giving up river value in this spots is a huge leak.