I haven't really messed with ICM calculators before but, these calling ranges seem wayyyy to tight, and if they know that's what my calling ranges are, it can be incredibly exploitable. They will happily shove 23o every hand into me knowing I won't call.
On the flip side, my equity with that calling range is greatly improved over there shoving range, I'm likely to win a very high % of the time.
But in these turbos, those types of hands can be a rarity when stacks are around 10bb and under, and shove fold game begins and seeing flops is out.
I would personally think that I need to be constantly pushing very small edges, as at times that's all that's left nowadays. Now A5's equity against a random hand will run fairly close, but I would imagine there is a small edge in there.
Or is there....? The whole reason for this post, open my mind up to other ideas, opinions, and the Math behind calling / shoving etc.
I haven't really messed with ICM calculators before but, these calling ranges seem wayyyy to tight, and if they know that's what my calling ranges are, it can be incredibly exploitable. They will happily shove 23o every hand into me knowing I won't call.
At first glance the ranges might seem tight (and its possible I am mistaken which always sucks) but if we really look at the spot I think we'll find them somewhat intuitive. And whats more, these ranges are the unexploitable ranges in regards to the payouts. So truly if you call with these hands you have no worry of being exploited. Villain might decide to push 100% but its not ideal for them so we should worry about such aggression because if they are good enough to know our strategy they will be good enough to not play that way anyways.
Another factor to consider is the bb might likely call too wide, either when you call (he can overcall too wide), or if you fold...and this would work in your favor since he busts more often than the ICM calculator is "predicting" (you could simulate this and expect the calculator to reflect this).
On the flip side, my equity with that calling range is greatly improved over there shoving range, I'm likely to win a very high % of the time.
Yes and the factor here is the bubble. We don't really care if we finish 6th 5th 4th or 3rd, in any particular order...we aren't even so concerned about 1st vs 2nd...what we really obviously prefer is 2nd over 3rd, so we are really adverse to calling off in marginal spots especially if we are not by far the shortest stack.
But in these turbos, those types of hands can be a rarity when stacks are around 10bb and under, and shove fold game begins and seeing flops is out.
We can expect/assume the ICM calculator accounts for this.
I would personally think that I need to be constantly pushing very small edges, as at times that's all that's left nowadays. Now A5's equity against a random hand will run fairly close, but I would imagine there is a small edge in there.
With respect to "pushing" I think you are correct the difference here that we are calling and so forcing a showdown. Putting our tournament life on the line 100% of the time, which happens here, is something that needs great justification on sng bubbles.
Or is there....? The whole reason for this post, open my mind up to other ideas, opinions, and the Math behind calling / shoving etc.
ICM calculator are not "god" but they should be considered close to. We can always ask others for sanity checks, but in general most peoples concerns about the decisions in a hand are not valid "on top" of the calculator results-but rather the calculator results are the answer to those concerns.
I don't know if people feel that range is too tight, it seems right too me, which is always interesting to me because I'm generally known for being loose/aggressive or a spewtard i think.
At first glance the ranges might seem tight (and its possible I am mistaken which always sucks) but if we really look at the spot I think we'll find them somewhat intuitive. And whats more, these ranges are the unexploitable ranges in regards to the payouts. So truly if you call with these hands you have no worry of being exploited. Villain might decide to push 100% but its not ideal for them so we should worry about such aggression because if they are good enough to know our strategy they will be good enough to not play that way anyways.
Another factor to consider is the bb might likely call too wide, either when you call (he can overcall too wide), or if you fold...and this would work in your favor since he busts more often than the ICM calculator is "predicting" (you could simulate this and expect the calculator to reflect this).
Yes and the factor here is the bubble. We don't really care if we finish 6th 5th 4th or 3rd, in any particular order...we aren't even so concerned about 1st vs 2nd...what we really obviously prefer is 2nd over 3rd, so we are really adverse to calling off in marginal spots especially if we are not by far the shortest stack.
We can expect/assume the ICM calculator accounts for this.
With respect to "pushing" I think you are correct the difference here that we are calling and so forcing a showdown. Putting our tournament life on the line 100% of the time, which happens here, is something that needs great justification on sng bubbles.
ICM calculator are not "god" but they should be considered close to. We can always ask others for sanity checks, but in general most peoples concerns about the decisions in a hand are not valid "on top" of the calculator results-but rather the calculator results are the answer to those concerns.
I don't know if people feel that range is too tight, it seems right too me, which is always interesting to me because I'm generally known for being loose/aggressive or a spewtard i think.
You guys seem to know a lot of theory about poker.My question:D is do you really play poker or just talk about it?? LOL
Be 90 years old
Final table the mill ball once when 80fucking5 (comps age)
Smoke weed
Use emoticons
Talk shit to unknowns
U looking for a grandson sir? We can be best friends
+1 this guys pretty cool to say the least. Plus he shows up at Bills game with the rest of them probably shutting the place down leaving at sunrise.
One last thing about this hand..
Here's a very real hypothetical.
Say we fold the sb in this spot, next hand the villain with now over half the chips in play is in the bb, we're the btn, we get dealt 93, 106, Q4 etc, I'm assuming this is a fold, especially into the big stack.
Sb also folds, next hand
I'm now the bb, I'm about 90% sure one of them will be shoving, now I'm at the point where I'm dwindling and may now have no Fold equity and desperately need a strong hand to dbl through as I'm getting called, which may not come in time.
Also if I am the shortest stack, it is very unlikely the other medium stack will be making a mistake by getting it in to light here, and will likely wait for me to blind off and get ITM.
Btw, thanks for the discussion, very thought out detailed replies, very stimulating.
Google it is there.I also have converted the poker one to EPUB so you can read it on your Kindle or similar.i can Email it to anyone who would like it.thanks for your help MR.Mod
Comments
On the flip side, my equity with that calling range is greatly improved over there shoving range, I'm likely to win a very high % of the time.
But in these turbos, those types of hands can be a rarity when stacks are around 10bb and under, and shove fold game begins and seeing flops is out.
I would personally think that I need to be constantly pushing very small edges, as at times that's all that's left nowadays. Now A5's equity against a random hand will run fairly close, but I would imagine there is a small edge in there.
Or is there....? The whole reason for this post, open my mind up to other ideas, opinions, and the Math behind calling / shoving etc.
Another factor to consider is the bb might likely call too wide, either when you call (he can overcall too wide), or if you fold...and this would work in your favor since he busts more often than the ICM calculator is "predicting" (you could simulate this and expect the calculator to reflect this). Yes and the factor here is the bubble. We don't really care if we finish 6th 5th 4th or 3rd, in any particular order...we aren't even so concerned about 1st vs 2nd...what we really obviously prefer is 2nd over 3rd, so we are really adverse to calling off in marginal spots especially if we are not by far the shortest stack. We can expect/assume the ICM calculator accounts for this.
With respect to "pushing" I think you are correct the difference here that we are calling and so forcing a showdown. Putting our tournament life on the line 100% of the time, which happens here, is something that needs great justification on sng bubbles.
ICM calculator are not "god" but they should be considered close to. We can always ask others for sanity checks, but in general most peoples concerns about the decisions in a hand are not valid "on top" of the calculator results-but rather the calculator results are the answer to those concerns.
I don't know if people feel that range is too tight, it seems right too me, which is always interesting to me because I'm generally known for being loose/aggressive or a spewtard i think.
Final table the mill ball once when 80fucking5 (comps age)
Smoke weed
Use emoticons
Talk shit to unknowns
U looking for a grandson sir? We can be best friends
+1 this guys pretty cool to say the least. Plus he shows up at Bills game with the rest of them probably shutting the place down leaving at sunrise.
One last thing about this hand..
Here's a very real hypothetical.
Say we fold the sb in this spot, next hand the villain with now over half the chips in play is in the bb, we're the btn, we get dealt 93, 106, Q4 etc, I'm assuming this is a fold, especially into the big stack.
Sb also folds, next hand
I'm now the bb, I'm about 90% sure one of them will be shoving, now I'm at the point where I'm dwindling and may now have no Fold equity and desperately need a strong hand to dbl through as I'm getting called, which may not come in time.
Also if I am the shortest stack, it is very unlikely the other medium stack will be making a mistake by getting it in to light here, and will likely wait for me to blind off and get ITM.
Btw, thanks for the discussion, very thought out detailed replies, very stimulating.
Good read...
Being a compassionate mod, I thought that. However, said nothing.
Restraint Sir.
Tho.
:mad:
I'm in a pissy mood. BB down $.06 today..:mad:
Not sure about on-line, but it would DEFINITELY explain my rungood at Bill's . . .
And +1 for the silliness of getting a read on ANYONE anywhere after 44 hands.
More funny is that some of it is coming from the mods.
Couldn't you have thrown at least one line of strat? "no money in turbo's, everyone's always flipping. "