Strat needed on 2 hands
Is strategy still part of this forum? i hope so, 2 hands, first one is from a $5 rebuy on party, big field, deep, but just shy of the money.
not a lot of stats on villian, only 44 hands, and so far its 23 / 2
im otb with :as:qs, blinds are 750/1500 i start w/ 57k, villian covers (65k).
Villian in question limps utg followed by another lp limp, i make it 5125 otb, bb and both limps call.
flop :qc:ad:7d (pot 22,500), checked to me i bet 9,999 (for the lulz), only villian in question calls (utg)
turn :3h (pot 42,500) i have exactly 42k behind.
i feel like i shouldnt just be ripping it in here for a full pot sized bet, seems like it would be too much, i come up with a bet of 17,555 into 42k, leaving 24k behind, he flats.
river :5d (pot 77,000) he jams...... i kind of puke, is he doing this with a flopped set of 7's? possible as its unlikely i would have a flussh here, not sure if hes really thinking that though, it really looks like a flush, A7? maybe worse aces.........
second hand is from a $20 turbo 6-max sng on the bubble (3 handed)
blinds are 150/300, i have 2700, villian has 6030, and other has 3200.
villian in question has been liberally abusing me, probably shoved from the sb, into my bb, what felt like 10x straight and i never had better then 9 high to defend with so he probably thinks im playing way to tight, waiting for AA, or AK.
the other villian, not in the hand has star power on SS and is a huge winning reg, our villian is probably a winning reg but havent seen much of him before.
with 169 hands logged hes 29 / 27, pretty active and hes doing a good job of owning the bubble building a stack.
He ships the button and i have :ah:5s in the sb, call or fold?
im also not really getting a lot of oppertunites to GII even with any 2, i believe my :ah is definitely ahead of his range, but should i be tighening up more considering its the bubble, i know if i do double here the other opponent is now much more likely to bubble and we were close to having even stacks.
2nd pays $43, 1st $65
thanks
not a lot of stats on villian, only 44 hands, and so far its 23 / 2
im otb with :as:qs, blinds are 750/1500 i start w/ 57k, villian covers (65k).
Villian in question limps utg followed by another lp limp, i make it 5125 otb, bb and both limps call.
flop :qc:ad:7d (pot 22,500), checked to me i bet 9,999 (for the lulz), only villian in question calls (utg)
turn :3h (pot 42,500) i have exactly 42k behind.
i feel like i shouldnt just be ripping it in here for a full pot sized bet, seems like it would be too much, i come up with a bet of 17,555 into 42k, leaving 24k behind, he flats.
river :5d (pot 77,000) he jams...... i kind of puke, is he doing this with a flopped set of 7's? possible as its unlikely i would have a flussh here, not sure if hes really thinking that though, it really looks like a flush, A7? maybe worse aces.........
second hand is from a $20 turbo 6-max sng on the bubble (3 handed)
blinds are 150/300, i have 2700, villian has 6030, and other has 3200.
villian in question has been liberally abusing me, probably shoved from the sb, into my bb, what felt like 10x straight and i never had better then 9 high to defend with so he probably thinks im playing way to tight, waiting for AA, or AK.
the other villian, not in the hand has star power on SS and is a huge winning reg, our villian is probably a winning reg but havent seen much of him before.
with 169 hands logged hes 29 / 27, pretty active and hes doing a good job of owning the bubble building a stack.
He ships the button and i have :ah:5s in the sb, call or fold?
im also not really getting a lot of oppertunites to GII even with any 2, i believe my :ah is definitely ahead of his range, but should i be tighening up more considering its the bubble, i know if i do double here the other opponent is now much more likely to bubble and we were close to having even stacks.
2nd pays $43, 1st $65
thanks
Comments
2nd hand, no real valuable comment as I don't play 6max sng's, but with your read tho, call. I prefer a shove but since you are getting no chance....
The 2nd hand, not as much, I deal with these similar situations in them quite freq but just not sure if I should be calling or folding in these spots.
Just because u get 4-1 doesn't mean u just get it in and say on to the next one. I'd fold , get in the money and try and get deep . Cashing in any mtt is priority number 1, don't just punt it off even tho the price u are getting is very tempting.
Also, bad players in mtts like this aren't good enough to check flushes and potentially miss value, so that leads me to believe he donk shipped river with a stronger hand than you
Second hand is a snap call with any ace
lol, online reads? on 44 hands? Give me a break..
If u played any sort of volume online, you would know the feeling .. that feeling where time bank is going down, and hand combinations race thru your mind, and a feeling comes over you , to call or fold
That's a read , a feeling.
Bigger LOL. You mean gut feel?
lol live players
Raise 5x? Seems like a lot, I wouldn't want to raise this much if I was trying to isolate with a weaker hand like 10Js, 910s, etc, hands like this basically.
It's quite possible I'm not up against any big 'thinking' players, but I should be isolating the same amount with 10J or AQ.
2nd hand you are fist pump snapping.
1) I would raise bigger preflop, flop & turn. As played, I would make the crying call since I think there is > 19.2% probability that my top two pair is better than his range.
2) Without making ICM calculations, my "gut feeling" :-[ is to call with an Ace against villain's wide range.
Not to be a nit, which I most definitely am,
19.2 means you are doing it as 24/125. I have heard others doing it the way you do it as well but have always felt that was wrong.
Sorry for the derail and I know it really doesn't change things in this case.
BF is correct in calculating the entire pot once you make the call. 24/125 roughly seems right.
second hand, I likely fold, but I am prob too tight. I just don't enjoy calling my stack off on bubble... Also, I wouldn't let him shove bvb 10 times in a row
First hand now seems quite clear, shove turn (I like how you put it, make him make a big mistake), as played call.
Makes sense, it's much easier to analyze now with an unlimited time bank, where in game decisions are much more difficult, especially if there are also other tables beeping away requiring attention.
The second hand seems much easier to analyze as it can be a basic decision.
My problem is, if I fold here, what are the chances the bb calls it off, not entirely likely without something, he's also one of the biggest winners in these games so I don't expect him to make a ton of mistakes.
Now if I fold, and the bb happens to dbl through, now im the shortest by a fair margin and what is the likelihood I'll get a hand this strong to GII with very soon as stacks are shallow and blinds are likely to increase soon. They are both thinking players, if I start shipping any 2, they are more then capable to adjust and make correct calls with what may seem like weaker hands, but are ahead of my range.
Results:
1st hand, I used up my time bank and did end up folding. The worst part about this is when you bust shortly after, and wonder about this hand, and what could have been, and how I should have just called anyway.
2nd hand, I called, obv knowing any A is almost always going to be the best, especially when in these turbos, a lot of it is shipping it in knowing the majority of the time your opponent won't have a strong enough hand to call with.
I constantly see ppl shoving close to 90% of hands, knowing their opponents will only call x% of the time
I called and was ahead in this particular case.
Also what T8 alludes to I agree with, there is too much in the pot to fold, which is another reason why shoving the turn is preferable. If you have to call the river anyways you might as well shove the turn. And you have to call river because all the "bosses" would, if played this way. This is also another way of pointing out that you only get value from draws on the turn since if they miss then you can't get value on the river.
If you have a read villain floats flops with a "ton" of air and bluffs constantly with all their are you might check the turn and check call any river bet.
Also I guess we could bet slightly more on the flop, and try to consider creating an all in turn bet that is more like 80% of the pot and feels more comfortable.
Or would you think it's better to give this up, in lieu or getting in with practically any 2 on the next hand.
If I don't get it in myself, these 2 will continue to pile into me until I wake up with a much stronger hand and call, or blind away completely.
Here is how I set up the hand, not sure if I got everything correct (antes and payouts etc.):
If villain is pushing 50.8% we should be calling only 88+ ATs+ AJo+, and actually if Bu pushes atc then we are only calling ATo+, KJs+, A8s+, 66+
I think making a true income from the game might be difficult in this sense. Yet I think I could give some counter argument to your points. Online poker and poker do get more difficult over time because of such maths, but I do know many crushing and successful players that detest it. The same thing goes for "huds" many pros just don't use them.
Card sense may in fact be the most useful skill, even in today's game. Every one has the ability/access to a learn a little every time they play if they are interested in expanding their knowledge on the game. I suspect constant growth at any speed is enough to stay profitable for all time.
Logging into a poker forum to me would suggest one is ahead of the general curve
Also I wouldn't want such "advanced" maths to turn people off to the game in this way, I don't think we all need to learn it, but its nice to have a general idea where these decisions come from mathematically.
For example the above charts/ranges pics, simply seem to suggest (whether I am right or wrong) that we should play tight on the bubble in regards to calling of for our stack).
this guy is my new hero
chaimr tho