Live - CNE Casino $120,000 Final

Somebody was offering thousands of dollars to buy a Final entry for the CNE Casino ~$120,000 Championship (which is non-transferable and not allowed), and it gave me this idea of possibly offering a piece of the action. As stated in the link below posted by pkrfce9, the "seat is valued up to $6,400."
pkrfce9 wrote: »
...
http://cdncne.s3.amazonaws.com/assets/pdf/documents/2014_Casino_Poker_Tourn_Rules.pdf
:
I have no doubt 99% of the participants are complete degens. Buddy, you should have no trouble taking this down ...

Approximate prize payouts
~$120,000 Total
1st - 62.5% ~ $75,000
2nd - 17.5% ~ $21,000
3rd - 10% ~ $12,000
4th - 4% ~ $4,800
5th - 3% ~ $3,600
6th - 2% ~ $2,400
7th - 1% ~ $1,200

I believe that ~$6,400 is a reasonable estimate of my EV for the Final. I have ~30K chips, but I believe that I am the best player out of the CNE tournament players. I'm reasonably sure that I have the most cashes in Ontario casinos since I went back to playing live last year, e.g., I almost have a wheel in cashing in every single place in the Casino Rama final table, including three Top 2 wins. Since playing online again in May, I have 80% ROI and 97.4% rating in OPR (PM me for link).

The couple of decent players at the CNE that I have seen cash more than once in Ontario/Montreal MTTs have NOT made it to the Final. The blinds will be rolled back in the Final with 60-minute levels. :cool:

I'm thinking of doing this with no mark-up, at a discount of at least 0.9375, e.g.,
1% - $59
2% - $117
>= 5% - only $280 (or $56/1%)
0.5% - $30
0.25% - $16.

For example, if you invest for 5% and I win first place, then you will win ~$3,700, multiplying your $280 investment by 13 times. Posting your interest is fine for now, then I'll ask to send payment this Wednesday night through any of the following methods (deadline on Friday, Aug. 29, 11:59 PM):
- in person, e.g., this Friday at Bill's (or next time I show up)
- Paypal
- EMT
- partypoker.

Feel free to ask questions or to reserve interest. The investors can cheer me on at the CNE on August 30, then hopefully, we'll go for a celebration dinner after. Chocolate-infused fried chicken and liquid nitrogen sorbet FTW! :D

Payment List:
2% - ddmilcan (paid)
2% - JimmyHo (paid)
1.096% - UbetIfold (paid $64.69)
1% - kwsteve (paid)
1% - Milo (paid)
1% - Wolffhound (paid)
1% - payperview (paid)
1% - moose (paid)
1% - Hobbes (paid)
1% - non-forumer (paid)
0.55% - Colin408 (paid $33)
0.359% - pkrfce9 (paid $23)
10% - reserved
5% - paid
5% - paid
5% - paid
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Comments

  • How many players are in the final and do people have different starting stacks?
  • Interesting.

    Would be interested to know stacks at the table.

    And since I have some $ with you ....
  • How did u "qualify"?
  • Also, if you have access to blind structure and can post it, that'd be great too. Awesome that they're one hour levels.
  • Have they set the total prize pool at 120k? It is so fucked up the way they have done this.

    Can I BAP $23 worth?

    tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU
  • so 20 people in the final if I am correct? Where do you stand chip wise?
  • Yes, you may BAP $23. I'll give another option to people I know of $16 for 0.25% for sweat equity. Electronic devices are not allowed in the tables, but I can try to give updates via Facebook or Twitter.

    There were only a few unsold stacks in the first two semi-finals, so I expect the prize pool to be close to the $128,000 maximum. I'll reply to the other questions after I'm dealt excitement at Casino Rama today.
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    Have they set the total prize pool at 120k? ...
    Can I BAP $23 worth?
  • The hardest part IMHO was the winner-take-all super hyper turbo satellite with hard-to-beat 17% rake. Only one in ten move on, while one in eight (5/40) in the semi-finals move on. I noticed a player who was a WPT first runner-up for over $250,000 (+ 15 worldwide cashes in GPI) keep grinding the Bingo satellites, but never won once; he has used his huge bankroll to buy an entry to all the semi-finals spending several thousand dollars, but has not made it to the Final.

    All the CNE players are much worse than him, and having played against him at Brantford/Rama/GBH, I know I'm better than this "feel" player.
    OHTNCTRHM wrote: »
    How did u "qualify"?
  • I'll take 2%
    Give you the $$ at Bill's

    Milton Slim
  • How many players are in the final and do people have different starting stacks?
    There will be 20 players, with total chips of 800,000.
    Also, if you have access to blind structure and can post it, that'd be great too. Awesome that they're one hour levels.
    400/800 + 100 ante; there were never any antes before, so most of the CNE players may be unfamiliar playing with antes. :smile:
    500/1000 + 100; small increases for more skill-based play! :cool2:
    600/1200 + 100
    800/1600 + 100
    1K/2K + 200

    Members who have read my CNE threads now know more about the Final structure than most of the finalists! Over 12% of the BAP has now been reserved. I'll probably want to keep 50%-80% for myself.
  • Why do some people get more chips than others? Are stacks from the second round carried forward?
  • Why do some people get more chips than others? Are stacks from the second round carried forward?



    correct, they get carried over.
  • Hobbes wrote: »
    Interesting.

    Would be interested to know stacks at the table.

    And since I have some $ with you ....
    cns187 wrote: »
    so 20 people in the final if I am correct? Where do you stand chip wise?

    Also interested but would like to know relative chip stacks first. Are you avg, less than avg, more than avg?

    Avg M is 18, what's yours?
  • compuease wrote: »
    Also interested but would like to know relative chip stacks first. Are you avg, less than avg, more than avg?

    This +1. Also possibly interested.

    How many total runners In the final, (20?) and how many spots paid, which each place receiving what exactly?
  • UBetIFold wrote: »
    This +1. Also possibly interested.

    How many total runners In the final, (20?) and how many spots paid, which each place receiving what exactly?

    he posted payout in the first page, 20 players 7 places paid.
  • RookieC tho

    Gl bf !

    Tid.
  • compuease wrote: »
    Avg M is 18, what's yours?
    M is 13. I think the majority of the finalists will have an M of 20 or lower (Yellow/Orange Zone) for at least three hours. I think a couple may be in the AIOF zone (though they may not know it).

    Thanks to cns187 for answering the other questions.
  • if you come in 4th place, this BAP still loses money? Am I reading this correct? And you are only starting with 3.75% of the chips in play? Tournament is really top heavy.
  • Only looking at an outright win for BF.

    With his track record it's realistic.
  • Hobbes wrote: »
    Only looking at an outright win for BF.

    With his track record it's realistic.

    1% after this confirmation.
  • Would be interested to know how you determined your EV? You're playing a tournament of M15 poker and less than average stack but an EV of finishing 3/4.

    I could also be underestimating how terrible the competition is, but my thoughts are they have to be reasonably competent to have made it this far?
  • Some of the finalists do have a clue about the absurdity of 62.5% for ONE player (and even the poker manager agrees), but in the event that the remaining players cannot agree on a less insane split, the idea is to make a small bet (~$59) on a player who has a proven track record of top finishes, as opposed to surviving to make a min-cash ala Allen Kessler. Since 8th is the same as last place, ideally, you want to find a horsey whom if he makes the money, he is more likely to finish in the top two or three where 90% of the money is:

    - Two cashes at GBH earlier this year, and they were back-to-back wins (1st 1 chopped; PM for link).
    - I didn't make ITM at Rama today, but when I do cash, I've had a couple of "Congratulations on your WIN!" photos.
    - I also had back-to-back Top 2 finishes in Brantford and Rama on two consecutive days.
    - There were over 1,000 players in the online $200,000 Gtd last month, and instead of just min-cashing, I made it all the way to the final table.
    Hobbes wrote: »
    Only looking at an outright win for BF.
    With his track record it's realistic.
  • Are deals allowed to be made? Would you want to play HU for $50k?
  • It's just a rough estimate. If poker regs pick out the decent tournament players in our area, none of them have made it to the Final except me afaik.

    I asked Popkorn why he goes all the way to the CNE instead of staying at his home casino, and he told me the bad losing players that he no longer sees suddenly show up at convenient CNE. The final two tables that I see at GBH/Brantford/Rama/Bill's are much better than what I've seen from these CNE players who luckboxed from Bingo satellites.

    If you take a winning player whose poker profits are in the 6 figures, while similar profitable players are everywhere else BUT the CNE Final, then the EV may be a lot higher than the average.
    Wetts1012 wrote: »
    I could also be underestimating how terrible the competition is, but my thoughts are they have to be reasonably competent to have made it this far?
  • Like other Ontario casinos, deals are unofficial and won't be enforced by staff. For example, the final 2, 3, 7, etc. may TRY to make a deal. As always, I will try to make the $EV-maximizing +ICM decision.

    I've had hundreds of heads-up (or final 2) matches, so I believe I have an edge if I get to play for the $54,000 difference heads-up, but especially if the blinds are high, I will make a +$EV offer that would make pkrfce9 and compuease proud. >:D
    UBetIFold wrote: »
    Are deals allowed to be made? Would you want to play HU for $50k?
  • I look at it this way: it costs $120 to enter a satellite, from which, not only do you have to finish first but then you also have to make it out of a semi final as well. For roughly half that cost I have a far better chance to make money off this shit show.
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