Analysis: Flop top set out of position vs sh!te board.
This was the topic of a drunken discussion between a friend and myself, a conversation which lasted from 3am to 5am on the casino floor of the Wynn, and resulted in me coming to the conclusion that he was right - I did in fact donk out on this hand.
I will post what actually happened later... in the mean time, here's a "what would you do" scenario for the way the hand started out:
$1-$3 NL Hold Em at the Wynn, Las Vegas
Seat 9: BFillmaff - Stack $800 (Small Blind)
Seat 3: Maniac - Stack $500
Seat 6: Tourist - Stack $350
Table Notes:
BFillmaff - Seeing many cheap flops given the favorable table conditions. A few good showdowns and up a few hundred at this point.
Maniac - is a true gem. Gone through four buyins in the past hour at $500 a pop. Past two buy ins he is visibly tilting. Examples include re-raising multiple streets all the way to show down with K5o for top pair (losing to two pair) in a recent hand.
Tourist - relatively new to the table and hadn't been involved in many pots. Not a lot of information on this guy, but confirmed he was vacationing in Vegas.
Pre Flop
6 Limpers Call $3
BFillmaff looks down at KK and raises to $23
Maniac Calls $20
Tourist Calls $20
Flop
Q J K (rainbow)
POT: $78
BFillmaff is first to act. What do you do here?
I will post what actually happened later... in the mean time, here's a "what would you do" scenario for the way the hand started out:
$1-$3 NL Hold Em at the Wynn, Las Vegas
Seat 9: BFillmaff - Stack $800 (Small Blind)
Seat 3: Maniac - Stack $500
Seat 6: Tourist - Stack $350
Table Notes:
BFillmaff - Seeing many cheap flops given the favorable table conditions. A few good showdowns and up a few hundred at this point.
Maniac - is a true gem. Gone through four buyins in the past hour at $500 a pop. Past two buy ins he is visibly tilting. Examples include re-raising multiple streets all the way to show down with K5o for top pair (losing to two pair) in a recent hand.
Tourist - relatively new to the table and hadn't been involved in many pots. Not a lot of information on this guy, but confirmed he was vacationing in Vegas.
Pre Flop
6 Limpers Call $3
BFillmaff looks down at KK and raises to $23
Maniac Calls $20
Tourist Calls $20
Flop
Q J K (rainbow)
POT: $78
BFillmaff is first to act. What do you do here?
Comments
Betting around 40$ and re-evaluating the turn, and so they could have something like j-9,q-9,j-10 and 9-10 ts hard to continue if an A or 10 come on the board and I don't think they'd limp with A-10. anyway i'd bet flop and see what the turn is.. the only hand that beat you that is possible is 9-10 which you are beating 34% of the time. I'm betting every street if no A or 10 comes on board..
I agree we have to bet the flop to give the wrong odds to the draws.
how often do people limp with A-10?
in a 1-3 game, more than should.
Very
I think its the opposite and your range is too tight.. just my opinion, if ur gonna consider every raise to be A-j+ and TT+ ur folding 92% hands pre or ur hand is -EV (pretty irrational)
As it actually played out:
BFillmaff: Bets $45
Maniac Calls $45
Tourist Raises to $145
BFillmaff: $100 to call. What do you do here?
As played, I am either going to shove or fold. Don't think you can call, because what do you do when the maniac shoves?
Me? I am likely shoving and praying I hit my boat . . .
Truth be told, I would be on the rail, after cashing out with my winnings.
raise it up another hundred and see how the maniac reacts. if a T comes on the turn you won't get any more from you opponents if you are ahead. the same may be true for an A.
OK it was supposed to be *your opponents but stupid android doesn't cooperate with this forum. and tapatalk annoys me
Bfillmaff All in
Maniac tanks, then folds.
Tourist Calls. Shows 9-10 for the straight.
Turn and river are blanks, tourist wins a handsome pot.
It was a cooler of a hand for sure and it feels a bit better knowing that you guys would have played it the same way. ($35 pre does sound like a good idea, as after Maniac calls $20 of course 9-10 is coming in)
Knowing now how the hand played out, what are your thoughts on a Check-Call on the flop with this hand?
Speaking of, I was fortunate enough to redeem myself in the exact same spot the next day. QQ against 9-10, same board. Check, call, make boat, shove, paid
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Q10
J10
KQ (less likely but possible)
KJ ""
JJ
Hands in range that beat me:
9-10
Unlikely hands possibly in range:
A10
QQ
QJ
Looking more like I just got unlucky to run into the 9-10.
I will do the math when I get home... On a phone right now but loving the discussion. This was the same logic I went through during the hand and like I said it's nice to know i am thinking along the right line.
And I can't wait to tell my buddy he's wrong... (Again!)
Tourist Stack size $350 at start of hand - i think its shove or fold when he raises the $100. Calling may give odds to Maniac if he has a 10, 9, or A in his hand - were playing pretty deep. (He claimed afterwards to have folded JJ, but could have easily been J10 etc.)
For sure the tourist isn't folding with about half his stack already in. I'm thinking more if we can get some $ from the maniac or is it not worth it.
Good discussion. Bout time we had one on this site.
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They aren't raising with AT but they'll play it.
A LOT!
Me, about 50% of the time.
K this is pretty crude, but I just ran through some quick math in excel. Both plays (check/call vs all in) actually come up similar in terms of EV according to this, however for simplicity's sake I did operate under the assumption that Maniac was going to fold his hand. I'd actually like to play around some more when I have time and see what the #'s look like in true multi-way calculation based on both of their ranges, but for now, that was a fun exercise!
Thoughts?
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(Still love working out poker spots in excel ... Like I said its a bit crude, but I think there's some value in doing it "the long way")
(..... Although maybe less value when I notice my numbers are wrong 5 minutes after posting....)
Will definitely be checking that out, thx.
Let me see what you come up with and there may be more to discuss. This could get interesting.
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tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU
Ha, yeah for sure - I was definitely rushing a bit on that one... Hard to justify keeping the wife waiting while I do poker math with strangers on the internet
Looking forward to dicking around with this hand some more when I get home -
And if you learn something, even better!! (Assuming the math checks out... No guarantees on that.........)