30/60 hand analysis
Just played an interesting hand at Stars, and I was curious to see what you guys thought about it. Rather than posting the hand history, I'll paraphrase.
I'm SB with Jh Qd.
MP calls, LP raises, I call, as do the BB and the MP limper. 4 of us to the flop, $240 in the pot.
Flop: 9c Ts 7c.
I check, BB bets, MP raises, LP re-raises. 3 cold to me, and I call. (Mistake? If so, why?) BB and MP call as well. 4 of us still in, $600 in the pot.
Turn: Jc.
Checked all the way to LP who bets, I call, as do BB and MP. I can't put LP on a flush (why would he 3-bet his draw on the flop, possibly driving out players who might pay him off), what I'm really afraid of is that BB or MP will check-raise. (Was calling here a mistake? What if it was 2 cold to me instead of one bet. And, does anyone like betting out on this turn card?) $840 in the pot.
River: Qs.
Results to follow.
On the river, do you bet out?
Do you call one bet?
Do you call two bets?
Any feedback appreciated, except about my preflop call, I know it was pretty bad out of position. It was a great, loose table though, and I was liable to get paid off if I hit, which almost justifies taking a flop against these opponents but not really.
I'm SB with Jh Qd.
MP calls, LP raises, I call, as do the BB and the MP limper. 4 of us to the flop, $240 in the pot.
Flop: 9c Ts 7c.
I check, BB bets, MP raises, LP re-raises. 3 cold to me, and I call. (Mistake? If so, why?) BB and MP call as well. 4 of us still in, $600 in the pot.
Turn: Jc.
Checked all the way to LP who bets, I call, as do BB and MP. I can't put LP on a flush (why would he 3-bet his draw on the flop, possibly driving out players who might pay him off), what I'm really afraid of is that BB or MP will check-raise. (Was calling here a mistake? What if it was 2 cold to me instead of one bet. And, does anyone like betting out on this turn card?) $840 in the pot.
River: Qs.
Results to follow.
On the river, do you bet out?
Do you call one bet?
Do you call two bets?
Any feedback appreciated, except about my preflop call, I know it was pretty bad out of position. It was a great, loose table though, and I was liable to get paid off if I hit, which almost justifies taking a flop against these opponents but not really.
Comments
Perfect example why not to play QJo in multi-way or any pot for that matter. You make a good, even great ( Top 2) hand and it can often be no good or conterfitted very easily.
What was the outcome?
So the call on the flop was fine, although any one of those players could've dropped out, turning the odds to unprofitable, so it would be better to only make the call once you know you're getting acceptable odds. On the turn, I'd probably fold. You could still make your straight, but with four players in after the flop, I have to think that one of them hit their flush draw.
If I am still in it on the river, I fold the hand here too. Now any K, any 8 or the flush has you beat. To me, 2 pair is a suckers hand here, the kind that gives you just enough hope to stay in the pot despite the fact that you're almost certainly beaten. There will be times of course where the two pair actually is the best hand, but not very often.
I don't see how you can call multiple bets on the river with a four straight and three flush on the board. There are straights, flushes and possible sets out there. Your read on all three of these opponents has to be "major fish lunatic". Even if it goes check,check,check, bet, you feel sick about the possible checkraise after your call.
Can't wait to hear the result.
So far we have one forum member saying I should call one river bet, and two saying I shouldn't call even one bet on the river. I'll post the results a little later on in the day, to allow for some more feedback.
So if there are times that two pair is good then folding is a major mistake in a large pot.
If there is $840 in the pot and you check with the intention of calling one more you only need to win that hand like....1 in 17 times to make a profit ($60 for $1020 assuming BB and MP check and LP bets). For me it really depends on the expectation of the check raise behind me.
If I don't think they have it in them then there is no way I lay this down for one bet.
I don't think I call two bets cold though. At what point does it have to be so obvious your beat and just throwing money away.
I'd put the LP on an overpair. Hopefully Aces for your sake. MP maybe 2 pr - T9? The BB is the wild card- he could have flopped a straight or he may have the flush. Or he also has a busted draw. Or he is a total fish?
On the flop I think you would expect roughly 20 small bets in the pot. Calling 3 cold gave you about 6:1 odds. Not terrible for a open-ended straight draw, although some of your outs may be tainted by someone drawing to a flush. So the call is borderline. It doesn't look like top pair would take this pot when you called.
The lack of action on the turn tells me either BB and MP are playing possum (why?) or they haven't hit their hands yet. LP's bet could just be an attempt to steal the pot or is it a value bet?
On the river, there would be at least 15BB in the pot if it is 1 bet to you. Worth seeing. If there's a chance for a re-raise, I'd be very cautious about calling here. There are a lot of cards that have you beat. Trips, straight or flush are all likely. Even the fish get lucky once in a while.
It is good to see that even at high limits, situations come up that aren't much different from the low limit games. I can't wait to hear how you took down the pot.
Fold to the raise...your in a terrible position with a very weak hand.
Okay, so you called preflop and now you get a pretty good flop. Unfortunately, it comes back to you 3 bets. Now if you think all three players complete bluffers or will push this hard with TPTK on this flop then it may be tempting. I think though that at least one player must have a set (which is ugly for you) and probably a flush draw and very possible late position has an overpair. I think your open ender is in big trouble even if it hits. With three bettors I think you need to pass here and watch the hand play out. DON"T BE AFRAID TO FOLD HERE. There are to many redraws against your made and you haven't even made your hand yet.
You have not said one word about a set? You have completely discounted 88? Why? Why are you only worried about LP? Why is it impossible to put BB or MP on a flush? I think you are getting pot odds to call here but I still don't think you should have gotten here and you may be drawing dead.
BARF!!! A card that tricks you into thinking you're good. BARF. I really think you're in bad shape but I may feel obliged to check call (but I suck!).
I really think you could have gotten away from your hand preflop...then again on the flop...then again on the turn (maybe, it was only one bet...two bets and I fold easily)...then the action should dictate your play on the river (check calling one bet max?).
Your read on your opponents may change how I would have played but in general against normal opponents I HATE the way you played this hand. But I still like you AA!
LoL...a little man flirting at the end... Q:-) I miss the Santa smilies (the Q is to represent a touque!)
The range of hands for an average player in LP is very wide and I think you have a hand that plays well against them, and the limpers.
I really prefer taking the lead in this situation. You don't want to get stuck being the monkey in the middle which is what will happen if it's checked to the raiser and what happened when BB bets out. For me, I like betting the draw here -- it's kind of like reverse positional advantage. What might happened is that it's three bets cold to LP and he must muck is AKo or AQo.
With the line you took, I think you should fold here or cap. Again, I want to take some control, or get out of the hand. The reason for the cap, is that you're getting 3 to 1 on a six outer to be conservative. But the implied odds are good, as you are trying to represent a made hand, which works if you hit the turn. Pay day baby.
I agree with LP assessment. Why not bet out? That way you'll know if someone hit the baby flush when it gets back to you. It just feels like you didn't want any reason to fold this hand -- i know that feeling btw.
You can't bet out the river because the players at this level are very capable of bluff raising at the river on a very big pot. I would call one bet from LP. If BB or MP bets out, I'm inclined to fold, but the simian in me would likely call.
Tell us you got paid off by an over aggressive LP holding AA, and a crying BB with JT, who made the second crying call!
Cheers
Magi
With the raise, wouldnt you be thinking set? or what about AKs? (He did raise preflop and didnt have a chance to get it higher.) But do you have a read?
The call goes either way right? just barely by the numbers but Im sure you have a feel for the posible hands here hence your 3Bet cold call.
LP bets the turn, straight , flush or set would do that, (possibly hoping someone else turned a str and is going to pay off) why call? unless you have some different read which makes it +EV in your mind that he doesnt anything but an overpair?
River Qs
So now what beats you, any king, any 8, a set and a flush. You have top two pair, are you hoping LP had AA? or two lower pair of the flop?
You have to have a 'feeling' that your two pair is good, problem is even if LP is a maniac and bet purely on position, this is the type of hand they hit and make huge cause no one trusts them. As for the other monkeys in the pot, any K and 8 etc beat you...
What were you thinking is my answer? By the numbers, it is a bad call on the turn.
But what did you feel? If you really thought two pair were good
;and they were good for you, Great.
;if they werent, then what thinking got you to that point.?
My guess is AKs took down the pot
You didn't want to talk about it. Okee-dokee.
Flop:
Assuming the worst case (that is, that the betting will be capped) you're facing pot odds of 6.3 to 1 going to the turn card. (Your actual pot odds turned out to be 6.6 to 1.) You've get 6 nut outs. Every other out you have wouldn't make me very happy to hit. Odds to hit one of the 6 outs on the turn = 7.8 to 1, so calling is fine but close.
Turn:
Quite possibly the worst card in the deck for you. The 2c is bad for you, but the Jc is bad for you and you are going to be more tempted to call some more bets.
The real reasons of course are that it is a club, and that your nut straight draw is counterfeited. There is now no river card that will give you the nuts. I'll conceed however that KQ is an unlikely holding past the flop, but the more important thing is that your straight draw is now to split rather than win if you are facing any Q at all in the field.
While Omaha is supposed to be the version of Holdem where you're worried about nut draws, this is one of those times in Texas Holdem (with four players in and every single one of your opponents making an aggressive bet on the flop) where the fact that your draw has significantly weakened matters a great deal. You've got 6 outs to the 2nd highest possible straight (though, I'd say that KQ is rather unlikely to face that flop heat, unless it's Ks Qs exactly), any club will kill your hand, and you are possibly drawing dead.
On the other hand, you're offered a whopping 14 to 1 on your money to see the river. A very tricky and close (I think it's still close even though the pot odds are humungo) decision. Even a check-raise would not make calling wrong assuming you do actually have 6 outs (to win). It's not the odds that might make calling wrong. It's the assumption.
What turns the close decision to a call from my point of view is that the turn action suggests that probably none of your opponents has a (non-nut) flush. Either the BB or MP would go ahead and collect value bets now with a baby flush before everyone has drawn out or failed to draw out. The LP player could have just about anything from an overpair to a flopped set to Ac Kc.
On the other hand, there are good arguments for folding too:
1. You may be drawing to the 6 outs for half the pot.
2. You may be drawing dead in terms of both the two pair draw and straight draw. Yikes.
River:
I would check. There is not nearly a great enough chance that your hand is good to bet the river for value. Nobody is likely to fold to your bet holding better than top two with this giant pot.
If it comes one bet back to you, again you have a tough decision. It depends who the bettor is. I think you have to make a crying call for one bet here. You might have just cracked LP's AA, or flopped two pair. I'd easily call LP. If one of the other players, it's a closer decision. I'd still be inclined to call one if the BB or MP led out on the river, particularly because in this case you have already witnessed the LP call so that a raise is now pretty unlikely (or impossible).
If it's two bets to you, that means either the BB or MP player (or both) has woken up with a bet on the river. If I may be so bold as to completely disrespect your opponents, one of them may have rivered the straight. Much more plausible is that one of them was slowplaying a monster (that is, the nut flush) on the turn, and has now decided that they need to value bet the river (instead of going for a check-raise) because the river card is so scary looking to their opponents. The point is that the initial bettor (in either case) has you beat. The player who raises this player, unless they are way out to lunch, also beats two pair. Fold if it's two bets back.
If it's a check-raise back to you (LP the initial bettor), I think I'd still have to call one more bet back. One crying call deserves another, right?
Seriously though, a check-raise seems a little suspicious on the river. It seems pretty bizzare to slowplay a real turn hand (that is, a flush) right through to checking the river assuming the LP will fire another bet. There are simply too many hands the LP player might be willing to check down on the river for BB or MP to risk losing value bets going for a river check-raise with a big hand.
Since it's fun to guess hands, here it goes:
LP: KK (with Kc)
MP: Ac Th
BB: 2c 3c (Doesn't agree with my analysis--- it's just a fun guess)
ScottyZ
I don't want to over think this situation but with a combination of resonable hands, here is my take.
BB has a pair with a straight draw. (T8)
MP has a set of sevens
LP has AK or AQ suited in clubs.
Now i don't actually think they have all those hands, but if they did you're in HORRIBLE shape. So many of your outs are dead possibly. In reality the range of hands are likey muck more diverse, including overpairs (AA or KK with a club in the hand for LP)
I think you have to look at your odds on the cold calling of three bets very carefully, because of the presence of the 2 clubs on the board. It means that two of your outs are contaminated. The problem here is with the pot getting bumped to three bets, i'm surprised that no one bumped it upto 4. My experience is that often people who bet the draw, will go ahead and cap it for the last bet, because it may slow other bettors down on the turn.
The cost to see the turn is high. Now that i'm on the turn i would actually bet. The reason is you're raising to represent the flush, it may drive out some people but also to figure out exactly wher eyour hand is. You likely still don't drive anyone who HAS the straight or flush out, or anyone with a big club. If you get popped back though on the turn, my belief is that only a person with a made flush could do it and despite raising you should fold.
Played out with a raise on the turn (and you not getting re-raised) I likely call 1 bet with the Q on the end, but not two.
Scotty, that was the key point for me on the river, too. This hand is comprised of close calls, tough decisions, and wishful thoughts. I will be the first to admit all of these things. After trying to determine what the hell my opponents were holding throughout the hand, it was mostly who bet the river that would influence how I'd end it.
And I also agree that the action on the turn suggests that a non-nut flush is unlikely.
Sorry for coming off so harsh in my earlier post...again sarcasim lost in the type.
So yes, I know the preflop call was a bad one. Why did I make it? My opponents were weak, and I was crushing the game. Is this a good reason to make a mistake? Probably not.
I posted the hand, as Chugs mentioned, to discuss what the heck I should have done when I was in it, and I've received some great feedback so far, including yours. I think we're revisiting the whole 'if you make a mistake calling preflop can you make up for it by playing according to pot-odds post-flop' theme from Magithighs' 'What If?' thread, but it's a topic that merits a lot of thought, IMO. Basically, in limit hold'em, when do 'pot-odds calls' go out the window because you KNOW you're beat?
I think it's safe to assume that your behind with Q high on the flop with a nut open ender. Now the problem here is that it is likely be up against made hands and other drawing hands that give you a lot of trouble.
I would be interested to see the numbers on the open end vs a set vs flush draw. My guess is that the open ender is in world of trouble against both. Now put into the equation you could have been up against a flush draw, set, and some other sort of made hand with redraws (ie 88).
Again, I can't imagine that your JQ in this situation is a long term winner...but I would love to see some numbers...cues the number guys
River bet size divided by expected total river bet size = how often you need to win this hand to justify your river call. So we're looking at being good 7%ish of the time in the long run to make the call profitable. To call two, 14%ish.
So the question becomes.. Are you good? Well the bizarro boom-boom-boom by 3 players on the flop is interesting. No Cap? Hmm.. LP has an overpair, but what do the other two guys have? They both shut down on the turn when the straight and the flush were made but there was no CR of LP.. You probably give one of them TPTK and the other some bizarre 2nd pair hand (you said the table was loose)..
Anyway, I think you are probably good here a bit better than 7% of the time, so I'd call one and fold to two.
You kidding me? QJo loves a lot of players? Yikes!
The game had a percentage to the flop of less than 30% on a full table. What was likely more true about that table was that people would pay you off on your hands, ie people fell in love with there hands and saw them to the end, which does tend to happen when you only have say two or three on the flop and then down to two by the turn.
A big factor in this hand depends on whether or not you give any of your opponents credit for a flush draw and/or made hands. A flush draw combined with any other big hand (ie a set or overpair) just murders you.
So if you put at least two of your opponents on big hands (either drawing (flush) or made (set/overpair)) I don't think you were getting odds call the flop (about one in ten). If you only put one opponent on one of those hands then you (about one in 5?) will come out a head (again looking at the flop).
What you think?
River: Qs. CHECKED AROUND. I showed my hand first because of my position, and then I watched in amazement as BB and MP mucked their hands. And then I had to... wait... for... it... and LP finally mucked his as well.
So, that made my river decision pretty simple.
These results do not take away from any of the points that have been made about this hand. I just couldn't believe my two pair was good. After the first two opponents folded, I was on my feet, staring at the screen, WILLING LP TO MUCK HIS HAND.
I got the hand history, of course, and here's what they were holding:
BB: 7s Qc, for bottom pair on the flop. Improved to an open-ended straight draw and a queen-high flush draw with one card to come. Ended up with a worse two pair than me.
MP: Js Tc, for top pair and a gutshot straight draw on the flop. Improved to top two pair on the turn, with a gutshot straight draw, a gutshot straight flush draw, and a flush draw using his Tc with one card to come. Ended up with a worse two pair than me.
LP: Ah Td, for top pair, best kicker on the flop. Didn't improve on the turn at all, unless you count the fact that an eight on the river would put a jack-high straight on the board.
Truth is indeed stranger than fiction.
I still got it!
Ok dammit... what poker universe do you get to live in?
So that being said do you think it was the right play?
As for the analysis we all gave, does that make us all wrong ?
What does everyone ethink the RIGHT play was, regardless of outcome? I'm not sure that the 1/7 call vs Ev is right? If it is then I have to take a new approach....who am I kiding everyone knows Im a calling station.
The sun shines, there are no rocks on the beaches, and the beer is always cold.
I'm still very interested to know where you had your opponenets through out the hand. I'm mostly interest on the range of hands you thought your opponenets were on, on the flop.
Nice pot. BTW, you owe my employer about 5 hours of wages since I have been pretty useless all day refreshing this thread.
I love threads that don't post results right away. They are by far more interesting then copying the whole hand history.
Cheers
P.S. I bet it would of sucked to watch these guys cap the river and turn up their cards after not wanting to put in a second bet. :eek:
Once again you're twisting my words and the tale of the tape proves me right.
I said
What that means is that LP makes the raise with enough hands that AA is in half decent shape against him. Also, this is a loose aggressive game, and if MP has ANYTHING he's raising as the first person in the pot. So, he's likely playing some trash hand that is looking to catch and get paid.
Lets go to the tale of the tape -- LP has ATo . Hmmm. QJ is in decent shape against that hand. MP has JTo, trash as an opener in that game, and he's dominating that hand. BB has Q7, another hand AA dominates.
Magi dominates BBC Z once again!
Cheers
Magi -- that
All we are saying is give man flirting a chance.....