What I felt he had up to that point is irrelevant.
Why, the hand doesn’t begin on the river?
Let’s say he checks top pair King kicker.
What is wrong with the play that he is hoping to check raise you on the flop and end it right there, but you didn’t obligate and checked. At this point he is 90% sure he has the best hand.
Turn brings 4 to the flush and he bets 80 to find out where he is at. You call and to the river we go.
Now it brings into play a runner runner flush for both players and a paired board. He may still think his AK is good because there is no way he thinks you are in the hand for runner runner so he doesn’t even consider you for the flush. Chance of you getting quads, he isn’t worried about that either.
The over bet suggests two things.
1) He still thinks his hand is best regardless of the paired board.
2) He decided he missed his hand like a King Queen and checked the flop. Turn comes now he begins to represent a hand, strength by checking the flop after pre raising. AK, K Qh Jh 10h and any pair JJ QQ , Jh 10h thinks he’s picked up a flush draw. The defensive bet on river he is hoping you fold or re-raise. If you re-raise and he doesn’t have the boat he is folding 100% of the time. If you call and he is wrong (AK, K Qh Jh 10h any pair) he tried and maybe is kicking himself for not getting a bet in on the flop to get more info on what you might be playing. 2000 chips left second level he still has room to play has room to play.
What is wrong with the play that he is hoping to check raise you on the flop and end it right there, but you didn’t obligate and checked. At this point he is 90% sure he has the best hand.
Turn brings 4 to the flush and he bets 80 to find out where he is at. You call and to the river we go.
Now it brings into play a runner runner flush for both players and a paired board. He may still think his AK is good because there is no way he thinks you are in the hand for runner runner so he doesn’t even consider you for the flush. Chance of you getting quads, he isn’t worried about that either.
The over bet suggests two things.
1) He still thinks his hand is best regardless of the paired board.
2) He decided he missed his hand like a King Queen and checked the flop. Turn comes now he begins to represent a hand, strength by checking the flop after pre raising. AK, K Qh Jh 10h and any pair JJ QQ , Jh 10h thinks he’s picked up a flush draw. The defensive bet on river he is hoping you fold or re-raise. If you re-raise and he doesn’t have the boat he is folding 100% of the time. If you call and he is wrong (AK, K Qh Jh 10h any pair) he tried and maybe is kicking himself for not getting a bet in on the flop to get more info on what you might be playing. 2000 chips left second level he still has room to play has room to play.
Bet sizing is ridiculous in both of your scenarios.
1) If he thinks hes good, why not vbet a sane amount that wont only get called by better hands.
2) You know how ridiculous this sizing is for a "defensive bet" right?
I see your logic on this hand but I would look at it in reverse. Villain with no history could play this anyway so look at his perspective of your play.
Arag on flop sp is possible along with set or A2 but so is a wide range of hands to let you catch up. Now turn pot bet sees where you're at and can be a semi bluff with flush draw, your call reps and ace, 2pair or 2nd pair and not as often a flush draw. River board pairing looks safe to villain especially with something like AK AQ here and is great if he semi bluffed fd to hit it. So why would a villain bet this much for no real value when he puts your range on a likely Arag. Honestly I fold this with anything less than your hand. With this line you have villain beat most of the time from his reads of your hand. Why not value bet on someone you don't know if you have a made hand? Monster, back door flush, A high kicker are the only answers. I'm putting villain on something like 50% AK-AQ, 10% fh, 5% bluff, 5% str and 30% flush. So I call it.
Early, half staring, short stack play is no problem anyway... .
Overbets are always polarizing and in this spot there is likely an 90%+++ chance that he has you crushed and maybe a 10%--- chance that he is bluffing or is betting a decent flush.
This bet oop on the river screams strength to me and I can't see him doing it that often even with a Qhi flush.
This is how I make lots of monies on the river in cash games...people just can't fold made hands even when there is a huge % of the time that they are beat (or they call off their stack with JT high Vegas).
river is similar, but Sig has a wider range which includes more bluffs given the wet flop and betting on all streets and likely hx between him and Ivey
Bet sizing is ridiculous in both of your scenarios.
1) If he thinks hes good, why not vbet a sane amount that wont only get called by better hands.
2) You know how ridiculous this sizing is for a "defensive bet" right?
On that board he doesn't know he is good. His bet is designed to take the play away from you. That's it. He only gets re-raised by the boat, any other hand that doesn't have the boat either folds or makes the crying call and they are either getting crushed or they are the one crushing. Up until the river you had know hand. So if you really believed the guy had a set to begin with, then the river pairing the board completing your flush is no good. I can see staying in the hand to try and make a play at the river, but if it isn't a heart and it doesn't pair the board, villian likely still makes the same bet. If he bets pot or less, he leaves himself wide open for the re-raise and then doesn't want to make a decision with top pair K kicker.
I REALLY disagree with this statement. This absolutely never happens on dryish boards.
Let's say then no heart no paired board. Can villain call any re-raise you make with only a pair? No!
Same scenario above. If the villain check the river it is an indication that he is given up the hand and you make a pot size bet good chance he is folding.
Let's say then no heart no paired board. Can villain call any re-raise you make with only a pair? No!
Same scenario above. If the villain check the river it is an indication that he is given up the hand and you make a pot size bet good chance he is folding.
1) A PSB and a 3x pot are entirely different things.
2) Doesnt a bet of 400 accomplish this as well
Youre failing to see the logic in the villains decision making
Its either 1 of 2 things, nuts or bluff. Its certainly not value.
Now we have to assign a % of range nutted vs. a % of range bluffing.
Do I think there are bluffs in his range - sure.
My arguement is I feel this bet sizing is very much in the nut range, all things considered - including the point in the tournament, the risk reward on the villains side, and the BI.
Im not sure what side of the argument youre trying to make.
LOL. If someone is betting and doesnt want to get called theyre bluffing.
Their hand is irrelevant.
In both those hands why not check/call if youre not betting for value?
I said in one of the first posts that if I got bluffed here, NH villain.
And I agree, but my point is that most people who are bluffing will always tend to overbet thinking they won't get called and if they get re-raised they fold without showing.
You should still have an answer though to what a reasonable size bet on that board be. If he had the boat and 3x the pot then he played it wrong right?
To add another 250.00 getting the call is better than scaring off his opponent with such a bad overbet to I guy that is only in the hand for 5 big blinds.
I have seen it go both ways, the point is you have to live with the decision you make. I don't think you can say there is a right or wrong play here with the information we have. Only you truly know what your gut was telling you. You feel you were beat. I am saying the overbet doesn't automatically make that so, only about 70% so.
Absolutely, I am trying to give a train of thought as to how the hand played out if he only hit the ace checked the flop hoping to check raise you. An then 3 bet the river as a way of disguise. If he has the boat he makes a bet to get you to call.
There are all kinds of reasons to fold, I was trying to give you a reason to justify a call.
my arguments for calling are way harder to convince people of then it is to fold lol. Considering its so easy to just reply with "he doesn't think like that" or "your giving him too much credit" yada yada BS lol
but ill give it a shot :P
Basically it comes down too, this board being ridiculously dry. In order for him to 2x pot for value he has to believe you have a calling range. I believe that he is more likely to put you on a 1 pair hand after the turn then recognize the flush draw. (66, 77, 78, 89, 56, 99).
Thats a little important but not really that important. On the river the board texture is way to dry to just bomb 2x pot for value with most hands, just because the fact you rarely have a hand here to call to pay him off. AA takes basically all hands you can call with. He could easily even do this with a smaller flush, I had thoughts at one point to reshove the river or CIB for value. Theres just no way I'm folding here vs some tard on such a dry board.
Comments
But doesn't he know this ? So his bet may get better flushes to fold.
This is the part where you say NH to the villain if this is the case, he turned his value hand into a bluff.
Why, the hand doesn’t begin on the river?
Let’s say he checks top pair King kicker.
What is wrong with the play that he is hoping to check raise you on the flop and end it right there, but you didn’t obligate and checked. At this point he is 90% sure he has the best hand.
Turn brings 4 to the flush and he bets 80 to find out where he is at. You call and to the river we go.
Now it brings into play a runner runner flush for both players and a paired board. He may still think his AK is good because there is no way he thinks you are in the hand for runner runner so he doesn’t even consider you for the flush. Chance of you getting quads, he isn’t worried about that either.
The over bet suggests two things.
1) He still thinks his hand is best regardless of the paired board.
2) He decided he missed his hand like a King Queen and checked the flop. Turn comes now he begins to represent a hand, strength by checking the flop after pre raising. AK, K Qh Jh 10h and any pair JJ QQ , Jh 10h thinks he’s picked up a flush draw. The defensive bet on river he is hoping you fold or re-raise. If you re-raise and he doesn’t have the boat he is folding 100% of the time. If you call and he is wrong (AK, K Qh Jh 10h any pair) he tried and maybe is kicking himself for not getting a bet in on the flop to get more info on what you might be playing. 2000 chips left second level he still has room to play has room to play.
Bet sizing is ridiculous in both of your scenarios.
1) If he thinks hes good, why not vbet a sane amount that wont only get called by better hands.
2) You know how ridiculous this sizing is for a "defensive bet" right?
Arag on flop sp is possible along with set or A2 but so is a wide range of hands to let you catch up. Now turn pot bet sees where you're at and can be a semi bluff with flush draw, your call reps and ace, 2pair or 2nd pair and not as often a flush draw. River board pairing looks safe to villain especially with something like AK AQ here and is great if he semi bluffed fd to hit it. So why would a villain bet this much for no real value when he puts your range on a likely Arag. Honestly I fold this with anything less than your hand. With this line you have villain beat most of the time from his reads of your hand. Why not value bet on someone you don't know if you have a made hand? Monster, back door flush, A high kicker are the only answers. I'm putting villain on something like 50% AK-AQ, 10% fh, 5% bluff, 5% str and 30% flush. So I call it.
Early, half staring, short stack play is no problem anyway...
This bet oop on the river screams strength to me and I can't see him doing it that often even with a Qhi flush.
This is how I make lots of monies on the river in cash games...people just can't fold made hands even when there is a huge % of the time that they are beat (or they call off their stack with JT high
Fold.
NL Texas Hold'em $22 USD Buy-in Trny: 74431715 Level: 1 Blinds(10/20)
Table $4,500 Gtd (2827527) Table #10 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 9/10
Seat 9: BeautifulGoddes ( 2,970 )
Seat 6: MIHCK ( 2,490 )
Seat 4: TAANILA ( 3,450 )
Seat 5: Vomani ( 2,920 )
Seat 7: bearhobb ( 3,160 )
Seat 8: can626 ( 3,000 )
Seat 3: ssibal ( 3,000 )
Seat 1: Wetts1012 ( 3,000 )
Seat 2: tneuwill ( 3,030 )
Trny: 74431715 Level: 1
Blinds(10/20)
There is no Small Blind in this hand as the Big Blind of the previous hand left the table.
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Wetts1012 [ 6h 7c ]
tneuwill raises [40]
ssibal folds
TAANILA folds
Vomani folds
MIHCK folds
bearhobb folds
can626 folds
BeautifulGoddes folds
Wetts1012 calls [20]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7s, 5c, 6s ]
Wetts1012 bets [60]
tneuwill calls [60]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jh ]
Wetts1012 bets [100]
tneuwill calls [100]
** Dealing River ** [ 7d ]
Wetts1012 bets [590]
tneuwill calls [590]
Wetts1012 shows [ 6h, 7c ]a full house, Sevens full of Sixes.
tneuwill doesn't show [ Jc, Qc ]two pairs, Jacks and Sevens.
Wetts1012 wins 1,580 chips from the main pot with a full house, Sevens full of Sixes.
fold
Folding here is outrageous.
unreg pre imo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K90LpATmf8s&feature=watch-vrec
Lagtard lol
u haz some splainin' to do
river is similar, but Sig has a wider range which includes more bluffs given the wet flop and betting on all streets and likely hx between him and Ivey
Risk reward tho.
Im open to be convinced this isnt a fold. Let's hear some ranges of random players that do this in level 2 of a midstakes (highstakes on Party?) MTT.
On that board he doesn't know he is good. His bet is designed to take the play away from you. That's it. He only gets re-raised by the boat, any other hand that doesn't have the boat either folds or makes the crying call and they are either getting crushed or they are the one crushing. Up until the river you had know hand. So if you really believed the guy had a set to begin with, then the river pairing the board completing your flush is no good. I can see staying in the hand to try and make a play at the river, but if it isn't a heart and it doesn't pair the board, villian likely still makes the same bet. If he bets pot or less, he leaves himself wide open for the re-raise and then doesn't want to make a decision with top pair K kicker.
I REALLY disagree with this statement. This absolutely never happens on dryish boards.
Let's say then no heart no paired board. Can villain call any re-raise you make with only a pair? No!
Same scenario above. If the villain check the river it is an indication that he is given up the hand and you make a pot size bet good chance he is folding.
1) A PSB and a 3x pot are entirely different things.
2) Doesnt a bet of 400 accomplish this as well
Youre failing to see the logic in the villains decision making
Its either 1 of 2 things, nuts or bluff. Its certainly not value.
Now we have to assign a % of range nutted vs. a % of range bluffing.
Do I think there are bluffs in his range - sure.
My arguement is I feel this bet sizing is very much in the nut range, all things considered - including the point in the tournament, the risk reward on the villains side, and the BI.
Im not sure what side of the argument youre trying to make.
Its OK, I just dont get why villain would 3x pot as a blocker.
2. He has taken the lead of the hand and (0ver betting the pot) is going to make you pay for information.
3. He is a tool and doesn't know how to play and is trying.
Seriously, it has been a good discussion. I assumed you folded?
In your mind.
AK doesn't want to give it up but doesn't want a call either with his 2 pair, what is the bet have too be?
mid level flush say J high again doesn't want the call what does the bet have to be?
Because I believe pretty much anything less, he gets the call.
Off to school, it's friday! Check back when I get home.
LOL. If someone is betting and doesnt want to get called theyre bluffing.
Their hand is irrelevant.
In both those hands why not check/call if youre not betting for value?
I said in one of the first posts that if I got bluffed here, NH villain.
And I agree, but my point is that most people who are bluffing will always tend to overbet thinking they won't get called and if they get re-raised they fold without showing.
You should still have an answer though to what a reasonable size bet on that board be. If he had the boat and 3x the pot then he played it wrong right?
To add another 250.00 getting the call is better than scaring off his opponent with such a bad overbet to I guy that is only in the hand for 5 big blinds.
I have seen it go both ways, the point is you have to live with the decision you make. I don't think you can say there is a right or wrong play here with the information we have. Only you truly know what your gut was telling you. You feel you were beat. I am saying the overbet doesn't automatically make that so, only about 70% so.
Maybe. Define blocker bet.;)
OMG. Then you agree with me that this is a very clear fold, correct?
There are all kinds of reasons to fold, I was trying to give you a reason to justify a call.
but ill give it a shot :P
Basically it comes down too, this board being ridiculously dry. In order for him to 2x pot for value he has to believe you have a calling range. I believe that he is more likely to put you on a 1 pair hand after the turn then recognize the flush draw. (66, 77, 78, 89, 56, 99).
Thats a little important but not really that important. On the river the board texture is way to dry to just bomb 2x pot for value with most hands, just because the fact you rarely have a hand here to call to pay him off. AA takes basically all hands you can call with. He could easily even do this with a smaller flush, I had thoughts at one point to reshove the river or CIB for value. Theres just no way I'm folding here vs some tard on such a dry board.
you guys all be cray