Why is this thread still going after dataman and vekked posts?
I love ya Darb more so your last few posts but your getting way to caught up in the math side of it and it may hurt your game more than help it and I don't want to see that happen to you.:(
How could 100% knowing the math and trying to get to the bottom of this possibly hurt anyone?
as i said, I don't think it makes as much of a difference as you are thinking it does
if i am correct it makes a dramatic difference on the way the game is played. So you can argue that my theory is wrong, but there is no question that if i am right...that it changes shoving across the board, in a big way.
Another point that I can come to is that we make no money on shoving aces...we only make money when we shove hands that are correct to shove that no one else does....
the last hands in a range are worth the most....and my theory extends the correct range.
You know Phillis presence in a thread like this is about equivalent to Godwins Law so I guess end thread?
u guys.
since you seem to have the most rock solid emotional intelligence here...I was really hoping you would be able to relate to my particular thought that possibly we can shoving -ev hands knowing we are securing a more profitable range than the rest of the field, who only shoves a tight range of +ev hands
there's only a handful here who can understand what im pointing at.
since you seem to have the most rock solid emotional intelligence here...I was really hoping you would be able to relate to my particular thought that possibly we can shoving -ev hands knowing we are securing a more profitable range than the rest of the field, who only shoves a tight range of +ev hands
there's only a handful here who can understand what im pointing at.
OMFG! I understand this all now.
Vekked
Wetts
BTP
You're begging for them to see it your way but they continue to scratch their heads at your theory.
I scratch my head, and I'm "berating" you and it makes me a moron, idiot and stupid without having the understanding needed to see it your way. But I don't have any 4+ digit scores or grind 1000's of on-line hands a day.
You are the 1% now Darb, and I am occupying you. I'd love to come camp out and shit on your lawn.
since you seem to have the most rock solid emotional intelligence here...I was really hoping you would be able to relate to my particular thought that possibly we can shoving -ev hands knowing we are securing a more profitable range than the rest of the field, who only shoves a tight range of +ev hands
there's only a handful here who can understand what im pointing at.
Is your stance that villain assumes we shove +ev ranges and therefore raise folds more often than proper so we can exploit with -ev ranges?
but shoving 42o is by far the better play even though its totally -ev
but most people will get stuck on 42o being -ev and they will fold it...
I know what you're trying to say but I don't think this is right, lol. Obviously 0EV > -EV, therefore folding K9o > shoving 42o... so saying shoving 42o is by far the better play is absolutely incorrect. Obviously you're trying to say "if you fold K9o you might be passing up on so many +EV spots that you'd show more of a profit long-run by shoving 42o+". Yes that's a point, but it's possible that shoving a range that doesn't include K9o shows more of a profit than shoving a range that includes 42o. It's also possible that neither show a profit.
I'm grunching a bit here because the last few pages hurt my brain, but I think it's kind of besides the point to argue that {bad range X} might be better than {bad range Y}. It's far more productive/practical to shove as many +EV hands as you can and fold as many -EV hands as you can. In general I would lean towards folding a bit too much than shoving a bit too much in THIS spot barring extraordinary reads, and shoving more in spots where there are more independent variables.
I know what you're trying to say but I don't think this is right, lol.
not sure you fully understand what im saying but you lol'ing make me lean towards that you do....
yes i am saying that we can take a penalty in ev in certain spots by shoving....because it increases our gbucks
where your argument, if you understand me, is going to be if we know a hand is -ev we should fold it....and mine will be... but folding -ev hands nets lower gbux and become a loss in roi (I'm not saying tho the adage that sometimes we need to take -ev shoves....thats a different thing for a different reason)
and you will wonder how the @#$# i came to this conclusion....
so to make sure you understand me...you should be like....wow thats PREPOSTEROUS .....and I'll say i laid out my supporting argument over the entire thread.....
really sux tho that everyone felt they had to try to shit all over it before we got to discuss the real question tho
Edit: its not fair or fun...if we both or a few of us don't know what im trying to say yet
If im understanding you correctly and I think I am, your making fairly big assumptions here and that makes this become less about game theory and more about meta game. Is this in case the fact?
If im understanding you correctly and I think I am, your making fairly big assumptions here and that makes this become less about game theory and more about meta game. Is this in case the fact?
you are starting to understand me....but you are not correct..we get paid on ranges...not our hand...
not trying to be condescending me saying that might help you get me...it won't help many others understand.
And that by meta game when you truly follow the math you actually mean gbucks... don't know if youll understand me here but i think V will
I do understand that but I dont think "our range" will really change the range of many online players. I know you would like to think it does but it doesnt.
We interrupt this derailment for a bit of the maths
Ok here are my results for the breakeven point of 42o vs. various opening ranges. I included the exact ranges I assigned, they could be weighted slightly different than a random's but w/e most of them have the same equity vs. 42o anyways.
Opening range/Calling range that 42o is ~breakeven:
9.5% (66+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo) /
4.2% (99+,AQs+,AKo) [Note: if he calls AQo here it takes the play from breakeven to about -1200 chips]
If villain doesn't fold any hands in the breakeven range, then we should not be shoving. Villain has to fold MORE than that to be +EV, obviously making breakeven shoves makes no sense if we have any edge whatsoever.
Basically I found (this might be kind of captain obvious) the tighter they open, the more confident we have to be with them folding at least everything outside of the breakeven range. In the last example even if he also calls AQo only 25% of the time it ruins our EV because of how big of a difference it makes on his calling range (AQo alone accounts for a 25% increase in the times you get called). In general they don't have to fold very much for shoving to be +EV, but it's always slightly over half of the time.
I do understand that but I dont think "our range" will really change the range of many online players. I know you would like to think it does but it doesnt.
I'm not seeing how this relates so im wondering if your not understanding me still
why dont you spell it out in plain english then, What is forboon trying to accomplish by shoving 42os here. Explain, because it cant be short term it has to be long term vs the same villians.
We interrupt this derailment for a bit of the maths
Ok here are my results for the breakeven point of 42o vs. various opening ranges. I included the exact ranges I assigned, they could be weighted slightly different than a random's but w/e most of them have the same equity vs. 42o anyways.
Opening range/Calling range that 42o is ~breakeven:
9.5% (66+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo) /
4.2% (99+,AQs+,AKo) [Note: if he calls AQo here it takes the play from breakeven to about -1200 chips]
If villain doesn't fold any hands in the breakeven range, then we should not be shoving. Villain has to fold MORE than that to be +EV, obviously making breakeven shoves makes no sense if we have any edge whatsoever.
Basically I found (this might be kind of captain obvious) the tighter they open, the more confident we have to be with them folding at least everything outside of the breakeven range. In the last example even if he also calls AQo only 25% of the time it ruins our EV because of how big of a difference it makes on his calling range (AQo alone accounts for a 25% increase in the times you get called). In general they don't have to fold very much for shoving to be +EV, but it's always slightly over half of the time.
Can you quantify the blinds going up while chips are in the air?...
why dont you spell it out in plain english then, What is forboon trying to accomplish by shoving 42os here. Explain, because it cant be short term it has to be long term vs the same villians.
no...this is our misunderstanding....we get paid on what other players would do in the same spot as us....you....are shoving pure +ev hands in this spot...because your so good you never shove a -ev hand......
but you miss 30% of hands that are +ev
i shove 10% hands that are -ev...i knowingly shove -ev hands....but i also am making sure i am shoving all 30% +ev hand you are not
in spots like this you are folding 30% of profitable hands and i am shoving ALL of them....plus a small hit from my -ev hands that make sure i never miss....
(not saying YOU do this or that..just using you as an example)
this is a big assumption again haha you have no clue what my shoving ranges are. I do understand what your going for here I just dont see it working long term....becoming -ev for you...period. I think you giving to little credit to a 6bb stack in a 180 man. Still has good FE
no...this is our misunderstanding....we get paid on what other players would do in the same spot as us....you....are shoving pure +ev hands in this spot...because your so good you never shove a -ev hand......
but you miss 30% of hands that are +ev
i shove 10% hands that are -ev...i knowingly shove -ev hands....but i also am making sure i am shoving all 30% +ev hand you are not
in spots like this you are folding 30% of profitable hands and i am shoving ALL of them....plus a small hit from my -ev hands that make sure i never miss....
(not saying YOU do this or that..just using you as an example)
This is what I said in my post about an hour ago. It just is worded a bit different. So I feel you.
I just feel youre overestimating villains ineptitude - significantly.
But assuming youre 100% correct - then your theory is sound.
But assuming youre 100% correct - then your theory is sound.
ok but my assumption have nothing to do with anything...
if a correct range is 70%....and in a certain spot everybody grossly undershoves it....by like 25%.....then i will overshoot it....and still have a better return on the shove....
so i shove 80%.....
then if you understand....you will say thats silly ....just shove 70%......
and im saying thats wrong...you need to take the negative hands.
Comments
hahaha
Nazi aliens
Yes common sense has entered the building, thank you.:)
How could 100% knowing the math and trying to get to the bottom of this possibly hurt anyone?
I find this thread fascinating tbh
I have seen it before, if you focus just on one thing in poker, the other skills take a hit.
Another point that I can come to is that we make no money on shoving aces...we only make money when we shove hands that are correct to shove that no one else does....
the last hands in a range are worth the most....and my theory extends the correct range.
..
there's only a handful here who can understand what im pointing at.
OMFG! I understand this all now.
Vekked
Wetts
BTP
You're begging for them to see it your way but they continue to scratch their heads at your theory.
I scratch my head, and I'm "berating" you and it makes me a moron, idiot and stupid without having the understanding needed to see it your way. But I don't have any 4+ digit scores or grind 1000's of on-line hands a day.
You are the 1% now Darb, and I am occupying you. I'd love to come camp out and shit on your lawn.
Mark was right.
I love you too reibs!:)
Hope your still doing well in your games.:)
Is your stance that villain assumes we shove +ev ranges and therefore raise folds more often than proper so we can exploit with -ev ranges?
I havent really read the last 4 pages.
Youre probably right.
I stopped when villain raisefolded 88.
Will go back - hold tight.
I know what you're trying to say but I don't think this is right, lol. Obviously 0EV > -EV, therefore folding K9o > shoving 42o... so saying shoving 42o is by far the better play is absolutely incorrect. Obviously you're trying to say "if you fold K9o you might be passing up on so many +EV spots that you'd show more of a profit long-run by shoving 42o+". Yes that's a point, but it's possible that shoving a range that doesn't include K9o shows more of a profit than shoving a range that includes 42o. It's also possible that neither show a profit.
I'm grunching a bit here because the last few pages hurt my brain, but I think it's kind of besides the point to argue that {bad range X} might be better than {bad range Y}. It's far more productive/practical to shove as many +EV hands as you can and fold as many -EV hands as you can. In general I would lean towards folding a bit too much than shoving a bit too much in THIS spot barring extraordinary reads, and shoving more in spots where there are more independent variables.
yes i am saying that we can take a penalty in ev in certain spots by shoving....because it increases our gbucks
where your argument, if you understand me, is going to be if we know a hand is -ev we should fold it....and mine will be... but folding -ev hands nets lower gbux and become a loss in roi (I'm not saying tho the adage that sometimes we need to take -ev shoves....thats a different thing for a different reason)
and you will wonder how the @#$# i came to this conclusion....
so to make sure you understand me...you should be like....wow thats PREPOSTEROUS .....and I'll say i laid out my supporting argument over the entire thread.....
really sux tho that everyone felt they had to try to shit all over it before we got to discuss the real question tho
Edit: its not fair or fun...if we both or a few of us don't know what im trying to say yet
not trying to be condescending me saying that might help you get me...it won't help many others understand.
And that by meta game when you truly follow the math you actually mean gbucks... don't know if youll understand me here but i think V will
Ok here are my results for the breakeven point of 42o vs. various opening ranges. I included the exact ranges I assigned, they could be weighted slightly different than a random's but w/e most of them have the same equity vs. 42o anyways.
Opening range/Calling range that 42o is ~breakeven:
25% (22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,A7o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo) /
12.2% (44+,A8s+,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KQo)
20.4% (22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo) /
9.2% (66+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo)
15.8% (22+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo) /
7.2% (77+,AJs+,AJo+)
12.4% (55+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,ATo+,KJo+) /
5.6% (88+,AQs+,AQo+)
9.5% (66+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo) /
4.2% (99+,AQs+,AKo) [Note: if he calls AQo here it takes the play from breakeven to about -1200 chips]
If villain doesn't fold any hands in the breakeven range, then we should not be shoving. Villain has to fold MORE than that to be +EV, obviously making breakeven shoves makes no sense if we have any edge whatsoever.
Basically I found (this might be kind of captain obvious) the tighter they open, the more confident we have to be with them folding at least everything outside of the breakeven range. In the last example even if he also calls AQo only 25% of the time it ruins our EV because of how big of a difference it makes on his calling range (AQo alone accounts for a 25% increase in the times you get called). In general they don't have to fold very much for shoving to be +EV, but it's always slightly over half of the time.
but you miss 30% of hands that are +ev
i shove 10% hands that are -ev...i knowingly shove -ev hands....but i also am making sure i am shoving all 30% +ev hand you are not
in spots like this you are folding 30% of profitable hands and i am shoving ALL of them....plus a small hit from my -ev hands that make sure i never miss....
(not saying YOU do this or that..just using you as an example)
This is what I said in my post about an hour ago. It just is worded a bit different. So I feel you.
I just feel youre overestimating villains ineptitude - significantly.
But assuming youre 100% correct - then your theory is sound.
this is the reaction you would more give if you understood me...but i would never expect YOU to agree
the man with the most gbucks wins....your lucky you came by that naturally ^-^
if a correct range is 70%....and in a certain spot everybody grossly undershoves it....by like 25%.....then i will overshoot it....and still have a better return on the shove....
so i shove 80%.....
then if you understand....you will say thats silly ....just shove 70%......
and im saying thats wrong...you need to take the negative hands.