Interesting 200NL FR Hand
Villain is one of the best mass-tabling 200NL regs/SNE. He's 18/13 overall and 3-bets about 6% total. I have a loose image and there's some chance he 3-bets me slightly more often. I have some notes but not sure if they're relevant, and I'd like to hear thoughts without those reads.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) -
UTG+1 ($97.30)
MP1 ($88.08)
MP2 ($206.28)
MP3 ($132)
Hero (CO) ($204)
Button ($446.07)
SB ($409.46)
BB ($208)
UTG ($205)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 7
, 8
5 folds, Hero bets $5, Button raises to $15, 2 folds, Hero calls $10
Flop: ($33) K, 8
, 8
(2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks
Turn: ($33) 3(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $22, Hero calls $22
River: ($77) J
(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $409.07 (All-In), Hero ...? (the river jam is $167 effective btw)
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) -
UTG+1 ($97.30)
MP1 ($88.08)
MP2 ($206.28)
MP3 ($132)
Hero (CO) ($204)
Button ($446.07)
SB ($409.46)
BB ($208)
UTG ($205)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 7
, 85 folds, Hero bets $5, Button raises to $15, 2 folds, Hero calls $10
Flop: ($33) K
, 8, 8(2 players)Hero checks, Button checks
Turn: ($33) 3
(2 players)Hero checks, Button bets $22, Hero calls $22
River: ($77) J
(2 players)Hero checks, Button bets $409.07 (All-In), Hero ...? (the river jam is $167 effective btw)
Comments
I don't play online, but live he has most likely has JJ with that shove. Overall range would be KK/JJ/AA IMO.
It's obviously a polarizing bet, but isn't a bluff in his mind. I don't see AK shoving here unless he feels you have a weaker K which would have to be specifically KQ(/KT) if he thinks he can get a call, but the J on the river would halt all value polarizing shoves as KJ is easily a part of your range that is never folding to a shove.
Him having KJ does not seem likely given your description of him.
AA would be a value shove vs your AK/KQ/KJ/KT hands.
I fold as I think his range is strongly skewed towards JJ/KK. The action reallly makes me think JJ in this spot as most polarizing value shoves would be for disguised hands and hitting the J is pretty much equivalent of hitting a backdoor anything on the river and making a value shove the way the hand played out.
So given your analysis, what do you do if you're actually holding JJ OTR in this spot?
100bb deep I don't think I can ever find a fold there unless it's a super nit that I have known for a long time at a live table...even then I throw AA/AK in cuz live nits are terrible and call...I probably don't start thinking about a fold ever unless we are 200bb+ deep.
We are also cutting his range down to KK/88 that beats us with 88 probably being a less likely hand for him to 3bet pre given his stats and stack sizes. I think 88 flats some of the time 100bb effective in position to set mine vs risking getting blown off the hand preflop.
I forgot to mention that I think there are a range of suited 8s (A8, J8-68) that a good LAG player can 3 bet in this spot pre, but from your stats I don't see it from this player so I discounted all those from the analysis.
is villain going to have air here? its a simple overbet jam here with air and reps jj and kk very nicely but some even good players might not really use that line (or is that silly to question at this level?).
its seems like you still have to call given the way you played it,
is he GTO here?
I *sigh* call....
He bet the turn 2/3 pot and you just flat called. He has to think you have a King or an 8, but given that he is a reg, may dismiss the 8 as it is unlikely you flopped trips. And he may put you on a mid pp (99 - TT) as you may not put him on a King.
You have really under repped your hand in this spot and he may think his AA is good, hoping you have K-J and his two pair is bigger than yours. Maybe he thinks he can get a weak King to fold here, versus his QQ.
There are too many hands that he can have and that he thinks is ahead of your hand but is not. I cringe and call.
I don't know how true this is??...we don't know how many hands this 6% is over...and if he isn't 3betting other hands than tt+ aq+(which is less than 5% and is he really 3 betting aq?), especially against someone he may think is loose, he probably has a leak...and a sne at this level mass tabling...I don't know that this is one of them?? (I could be way off base here and maybe he is just straight up standard playing)
I too like this..
This makes a large difference...didn't realize you played so much cash online.
I need to rethink now..honestly..I didn't know you had this much history and now that we know he doesn't/wouldn't treat you as just some random that is playing out of his league, it certainly makes a difference.
If he takes QQ and JJ out of our range for the most part are we 4 betting these too often and not flatting enough?
Thing is..would he jam kk or jj here or make a reasonable size bet hoping you call him with KQ KJ 8x? He doesn't know we don't have 88 unless he has an 8 also..so he has to have that slight inclination that we might have 88?? .Does he 3 bet with A8? probably not...but 89, 78...maybe..
I could just be rambling...I have been in and out of bed sick for 3 days...lol Will reread later and see what kind of nonsense I come up with..
He definitely takes QQ out of my range, but JJ isn't completely out I don't think. I think he expects me to 4B QQ all day (and I do), and JJ he may or may not discount, I can't remember any super specific history for 3-bet/4-betting, but I don't think there was much particularly notable, I doubt I've gotten it in that light vs. him cuz I realize his stack-off range is so pretty tight.
As for your question about what he'd do with KK or JJ, that's kind of the question being asked here, haha. It's possible he has A8s, 87s, 98s, maybe some more 8s... I'd maybe discount 98s and 87s cuz he flats them, but he could easily have 86s or T8s. But remember we're probably at least slightly -EV vs. any range of 8s given that we never win the pot against them.
With this being said...then it's a *FML* fold...makes sense. We just aren't gonna be good enough times...
(I am probably still rebuying cause I don't think that fast...)
Personally, being a terrible player, I'm breaking my finger from mashing the call button. Having read all of your, and everyone else's, thoughts, I now have a headache but feel like a better player for having read this.
Yeah me too...well, maybe not the better part. Sometimes i read this board and i imagine all this strategy being explained this way (the first minute or so worth)
Fandango Skydiving Scene, Pt. 2 - YouTube
The big question for me is if he has a bluff, why doesn't he c-bet the absolute nut flop to c-bet? It seems a bit of a stretch to think that he would check back planning to bet small on the turn and shove >2x pot on the river as opposed to just c-betting and folding out a bunch of hands. It just doesn't seem like a likely line to take as a bluff unless he's turning QQ or TT into one.
Also if he has KK here, and I call his turn bet, my range is almost purely bluff catchers that are either not calling a river bet no matter what he bets, or are calling nearly any river bet. I think if he has KK here he played it pretty sick, it would maybe only be slightly better if he bet flop small, checked back turn, and jammed any river regardless of action, I think that maybe makes it more believable for him to have air, I just think 95% of players will c-bet a bone dry K-high flop with all their bluffs in position because they have so much FE and the flop is pretty great for his range given he only 3-bets 6%.
Yea it's possible, but are those hands to value shove 2.2x pot?
ARGHHHHHHHHHH!
:mad::mad::mad:
I folded.
Basically I think that his most likely hands to take this line are JJ, KK, and AA. I don't see any reason why he wouldn't c-bet 100% of his air that doesn't have some kind of showdown here, there's just no history of me check-raising this type of board with a bluff or floating OOP or anything, and he's fairly tight and aware of his own image, and probably thinks that although I'm not exactly a reg I'm a thinking player and am aware of his image as well.
So the fact that his checking back range consists of traps and hands with showdown value makes his bluff-shoving range on the river close to nothing. Unless he decides on the turn that he's going to take AQ, QQ or TT and bet turn/shove river as a bluff as a bluff, I don't really think he has many airballs. Given that he's a SNE/mass-tabler, I think that he's often going to play hands like that pretty straightforward, and try to check them down or go for 1 street of value.
On the other hand, I think that his KK/AA/JJ hands play like this a lot of the time. With KK vs. a wide flatting range there's very little reason to c-bet since I just have nothing 99% of the time, but on the turn he has to bet if he wants to get any value at all. JJ he 3-bets 100%, checks back 100%, and bets the turn for value a significant amount of the time, especially when he doesn't have a diamond. AA bets flop maybe 1/3-1/2 of the time, but when he does check flop he bets turn 100% of the time.
So going into the river I'd say combinatorically I'll give him 3/3 KK combo's, 2/3 JJ combo's, and 3/6 AA combo's. I think he has the case 8 a small small % of the time, and pure bluffs a small % of the time (usually AQdd, but that's 1 combo and I don't think he 3-bets pre or checks flop 100% of the time), and I don't see KJ in his 3-betting range (I've seen him 3-bet low suited cards on the button before, so it looks like he's polarizing his 3-betting range). But for the most part I think it's a matter of whether we beat his value range. So if he gets to the river like this with KK, our hand looks like the case Kx a small % of the time, an 8 a slightly higher % of the time, sometimes diamonds or a hand like JJ-99. If he has JJ, I think our hand looks by far like Kx, then TT, 99, and some 8x. If he has AA, our hand looks like Kx, JJ-99, sometimes 8x. Overall my hand looks like a complete bluff catcher that won't call any size bet (TT, 99, maybe Ax diamonds?), Kx that will call a lot of river bets (especially if I hit the J), and sometimes the effective nuts like JJ or 8x that will usually call any sized bet.
Vs. this range, what's he going to think about his bet sizing vs. our river calling range? Well if he bets a normal 60ish, I'm folding anything worse than a K for sure, jamming JJ for sure, but he's probably aware that his line doesn't look too bluffy. He knows that most of his air would bet flop, and his line looks like almost purely slowplayed value hands, especially since hands like QQ won't be betting river for value. So it's definitely reasonable that I fold some of my dry Kx hands, and maybe just flat 8x since c/s'ing this river is a bit ambitious with most of my 8x. BUT if he jams the river, all of my <Kx are still folding, my JJ is still getting it in, but he almost certainly gets my 8x to put in more money, and although I might fold a few more of my Kx combo's, KJ is going to be super hard to fold when I back into that, and I don't have many Kx that aren't KQ or KJ anyways.
So with KK it seems like a pretty easy jam since my range is pretty clearly hands that will call nearly any bet, and hands that will fold to nearly any bet because he has all the K's. If he has JJ it seems like a pretty easy jam as well, since I only need to be hero calling Kx a small % of the time vs. his jam to make it better than value betting normal, and vs. a range of hands that are basically bluff catchers no matter what he does I think this is a good play, because it's fairly likely that I'll be going for a hero call some % of the time if I have top pair a lot. For the same reasons I think AA is a bit of a thin jam, but it's definitely possible. The thing is if he has AA, JJ is for sure in my range, 8x is in my range a small part of the time, and Kx is in my range but I never have top kicker. So I need to be calling with Kx vs. his shove almost always to make it a good shove given that I probably have at least 6 combo's of JJ/8x that he always loses to, 2 combo's of KJs (clubs and diamonds) that he always beats, so I need to have KQo in my flatting range pre 100% of the time, and check turn/call shove with it ~50% of the time to make it breakeven. It's possible that I could do this, or he could think that I'd do this, but it's VERY thin and maybe slightly -EV.
So RECAP:
I gave him 3/3 KK combo's going into the river, I think he shoves these nearly 100% of the time, let's give him 2.5 combo's to be conservative. I gave him 2/3 combo's of JJ, I think he shoves these 100% of the time on the river, definitely his most likely holding for a river shove. I gave him 3/6 combo's of AA going into the riv. Let's say he's a bit on the ambitious side and slams 2.5 combo's of this.
That's 4.5 combos we lose to, and 2.5 combo's we beat. We need to be good about 50% of the time when he jams river, so he needs at least 2 more combo's of bluffs or worse value in order to make it a breakeven call. I'm sure there can be some argument for a couple more combo's, but I also completely discounted the times he has 8x that beats us too.
So that's my short analysis :P. Obviously I didn't think of all of this when making my decision but most of it except the combinatorics went through my head. The biggest read that went into my decision is that villain is a frequent poster on 2p2, and I read him recommending an overshove for value with the nuts in a thread vs. a fish. I don't think he thinks I'm a complete random, but I'd guess it's more likely he thinks I'm a regfish than a good reg. I definitely don't think he respects my game that much (doesn't have reason to given lack of significant history), and certainly not enough to be taking a line that he usually takes for value vs. people he perceives to be weaker and taking it as a bluff line instead.
Just dont see me flatting pre and then taking this line to often...
When he checks the flop I think his range is mostly showdown hands, separated into traps (AA, AK, KK) and weaker showdown like (QQ-TT, AQ). I can definitely lead turn and riv but I think often I get 2 streets of normal value vs. AA/AK, or 1 street against QQ-TT, fold AQ. Obv get stacked by KK but that's w/e cuz I'm stacking most of the time to it regardless. I think this is probably the worst/least value line.
2nd least value is c/r turn. I think his perceived range hits this board so much higher, and it's obvious that he has a ton more hands that hit this board than I do, so when I c/r it's just so obvious to a good hand reader that I have something. I don't think we have the history to take a super strong line with strength in order to look weak kind of thing. He might peel a turn c/r sometimes which makes it slightly better than lead/lead but probably folds river a lot because it just looks too strong.
The last 2 lines are both close. First is lead turn, c/r river. This is an alright line for sure, but it depends if he thinks I always will lead FD's and some other bluffs into his turn range. The thing is his hand looks like JJ-AA, some AK, basically stuff that's not going to fold the turn. So it probably doesn't make much sense for me to be leading too lightly into his turn range that looks like obvious showdown hands. He might just think I'm kind of dumb and could do it with Kx or flush draws, but then if I c/s the river I think it solidifies that I was trying to build the pot. I don't think he would believe that if I was trying to make him fold AK/AA I would start by leading the turn.
The last line (the one I was going for) was c/c turn, c/s river. I think I can reasonably rep the widest range here since a lot of Kx are bluff catchers vs. his value range and I wouldn't lead them for value anyways, and I'd probably do this with diamonds, maybe JJ-99 as well some % of the time. I just don't think I can rep a ton of air on this board vs. his range either way, so I might as well try to rep a weak value range. This way on a lot of rivers he'll value bet thinking he's clearly ahead, and I have a lot of hands that I can probably deduce aren't strong enough to call, so a lot of hands I can turn into river bluff shoves, and he has a lot of hands that are at the top of his range in order to call with, basically any hand he bets the river with is going to be reluctant to fold to a river c/s since I'm repping only 8x.
The only rivers I planned on check/deciding instead of def shoving were A, Q, and J since those cards give him more boats, and the J not only improves his JJ, but improves my perceived JJ, so either a J river gives him a boat, or gives him more reason to talk himself into folding AA thinking I hit a boat (or slowplayed something), or even more so talk himself into folding AK since there's the off chance I get frisky with KJ if I'm bad.
My plan on these rivers is to maybe shove if I think I can deduce he's betting thinly, or just call if I can't distinguish his hand strength (I still beat all his 2 pairs even tho I lose to his boats, so even if jamming isn't profitable calling should be). I didn't expect him to jam often on A/Q/J rivers, but when he does I think it's often just the nuts given his flop check, not to mention the J could possibly be the worst river for him to shove thinly because I never have AA/QQ on A and Q rivers, but I do have JJ in my range. He jammed pretty fast too, so it's like he didn't even consider I might have boated with JJ. I think the only hands he doesn't think about that with are hands that don't have to think about that (the nizz).
Agree, KK is pretty close though because it takes the flop/turn line 100%, whereas JJ doesn't always bet turn. Even though KK takes up a bunch of the Kx hands, I think it strengthen's my turn calling range (it makes the chance that I fold soooo much higher with only 1 K in the deck, so when I do call I have more legit hands) and might make shoving river better because 8x becomes a way bigger part of my river calling range given how much narrower my turn calling range is when he holds 2 of the kings. When he holds JJ I have like infinity kings in my range, but this isn't necessarily good unless I'm calling his shove with Kx a lot.
Buuut, highly unlikely he deduces that shoving KK might be better than shoving JJ in the actual game, so it's unlikely he actually shoves KK 100% and value bets JJ normally some % of the time. (Sidenote: it'd be cool to always shove at least the JJ's with the J of diamonds given that it reduces flush draw combo's I could have and gives me more even hands that can call a river jam).
Perfect post, you have convinced me that fold was right here, and I cant believe it haha. Yeah the J river is a weird one for him to snap shove on. He also may think your a donk if you were playing as loose and seeing that he doesnt think your a reg. Therefore his shove makes a little more sense, as Id only shove this river (the way the hand was played) vs someone I believe to be a donk. I dont know if you think the same way, but I dont expect many regs to call a shove here with any hand that you repped to be in your range.