Is online poker really worth it?
compuease
Admin
in Online Poker
As most of you know I've been around here a long time, have seen dozens of poker "prodigy's" come and go. There are quite a number on here that a lot of us admire for their results and perhaps aspire to emulate... but should we?
I'm not going to name any names but I have spent a few hours over the past few days compiling some MTT results (only from Stars and Tilt as they appear to be the easiest to gather) and analyzing as to hourly rates etc..
I basically went back to the beginning of 2009 only and it seems to me that no one really makes much per hour compared to a decent job. It appears to me that unless someone gets really lucky and makes a huge score (like Kirk Caldwell did live for example) then they would be much better off with a job and career that has a long term future.
It also seems to me that those that have full time jobs and play casually part time as a secondary income and taking shots, have it right.
This may be heresy to some of you but the more I look and think about it the more it makes sense to me.
Discuss......
I'm not going to name any names but I have spent a few hours over the past few days compiling some MTT results (only from Stars and Tilt as they appear to be the easiest to gather) and analyzing as to hourly rates etc..
I basically went back to the beginning of 2009 only and it seems to me that no one really makes much per hour compared to a decent job. It appears to me that unless someone gets really lucky and makes a huge score (like Kirk Caldwell did live for example) then they would be much better off with a job and career that has a long term future.
It also seems to me that those that have full time jobs and play casually part time as a secondary income and taking shots, have it right.
This may be heresy to some of you but the more I look and think about it the more it makes sense to me.
Discuss......
Comments
I like to play the game, and I truly like the people I have met through this site. I like to play the various events that come up because, for me, that is "taking my shot". But I have no illusions about winning a WSOP bracelet. And that's okay, because I have a nice bracelet that the wife bought me a few years back.
There's def a lot of truth to this, it's really no secret that a lot of "pro's" just went on a heater, or crushed hard 3 years ago, but now aren't even winning players. I agree that most people would be better off with a job, for a variety of reasons, but mostly variance is sick and you really need to understand how harsh swings can be in this game in order to make playing poker > working. You either need some really good life management, or very few requirements for how much you make in short-term (me). I have the luxury of still being a student, and still being young, and not having anyone who depends on me financially, and still being completely fine if I were to go completely busto (which would never happen anyways, but if it did!). I think that setting out to become pro or make a living is a bad idea, and if it's a good idea for you to do that, it will happen naturally. Obviously if you're making 2x more playing poker and you have your life straightened out and if you breakeven for 2 months you will be completely fine, then it's probably a good idea to run with it.
Although "no one really makes much per hour compared to a decent job" is a bit of a stretch. I don't know what my hourly rate is, but (pardon the upcoming thinly veiled brags), I'm up >250k in the past year, and I didn't play full-time from september-april due to school. I don't know what my hourly rate is, but I know that there's literally zero jobs I could get right now where I would have even made 1/4 of that in a year. Also, I'm not even in the top few hundred of most profitable tournament players in the past year, let alone SNG and cash game players.
Hopefully that helps a bit. Also you can never underestimate tournament variance, it's true that some "pro's" aren't really pro's at all anymore and can't beat the games anymore, but also 2-3k game breakeven stretches are common, and it's entirely possible that some players could be killing it on all sites other than stars/FTP, and breaking even on those 2. I've seen heaps of players with like 500k profit on stars and breakeven on FTP or visa-versa, and it's not because they play better on one, or their style suits one better than the other, it's just insane/weird variance.
Right now I am just the part time income from poker side of it, but I have been thinking if I really stayed with poker and things happened a lil different the last few years I would be a vekked without the cheating
But again doing the job and poker on the side is not bad either, it just depends on your situation etc etc.
Also you have to look at all the problems facing online poker nowadays.
95%+ MTTs, maybe some SNGs but I mostly stopped playing SNGs by last summer. Most profit is on FTP (~40-50%?), then Stars, then Ipoker, then idk about the other 4-5 sites I play on, lol.
Not claiming this is scientifically proven, just a suspicion based on a lot of thinking and reading. Nothing to do with sample rate....
lol... self ban for 8 hours, good night...
or am i crzy.....too...
I have looked at a few 99.1 percentile players and was floored when seeing huge winnings then finding ROI was quite low.
I don't think that this is true only of online, we just have more data pointing to the facts. I once put all the CPT prize pools into a spread sheet. I found the top 10% of the players made 90% of the money, but it also only averaged about 70k a year in winnings. This doesn't include any of what they spent to make it. of course, we can say the same about tournament poker in general, we have no idea if most Pro's are stuck or up in the big picture since live tournaments are very hard to get accurate numbers from.
Of course all it takes a few big wins or one huge score to make those ROI numbers change drastically. Enter the sick variance.
What I have found is exactly what Vekked said, if you can lay it all on the line and ride the swings, are fully dedicated to it, these guys live like kings at times and those that are smart position themselves nicely for the future.
I also find that most of these players have a solid support group, buddies that can help them out and vise versa in those times where things go for shit. even the best go on some bad downswings and if there isn't lifestyle leaks, usually guys back each other up.
Just my IMO. bottom line, young single willing to split a pad with 6 others of the same seems to be the ticket, though a broad stereotype. Obv some older gents out there that fade the white line together as well....
A solid support group is def pretty key but I'd probably suicide living with 6 other poker players LOL. I usually grind with a couple other guys from time to time, but I think it's best in moderation. The less distraction the better when you're playing 15+ tournies at once imo. I basically had 1 other guy who I played with/talked hands with coming up, it wasn't until calgary last year that I started meeting more guys and building a bigger network of poker friends. Most of my development/improvement as a poker player has been just through my own playing/studying (obviously with the help of books/videos/forums/coaching).
Put the crack pipe down.
I agree w/ this completely, a wetts-esque lifestyle is a lot more realistic of a goal, and probably more intelligent in most cases (although I have no doubt wetts could play full-time if he wanted). I think the goal for most people should just be to improve and gradually move up stakes if you want to get to the point that you're making good money. The goal shouldn't be to make money, it should be to keep improving; the money will come if you keep doing that.
Kinda my attitude on it all, love the game, try to make enough for some toys or trips I otherwise wouldn't have taken. Event $5000 profit over a year is still not bad when you consider it's fun and how many hobbies cost money.
To me poker reminds me of being a kid (comp is old enough to remember this) and trying to find the winning liners under the caps. You might spend hours finding "please try agains", but every score feels awesome and you feel like you got something for nothing.
I often have to remind myself to look at hourly vs ROI though, as often some good old fashion work is most profitable. Money won playing always seems to be worth twice as much.
On a bit of a side note, home games seem to be juiciest as you get to know same players and how to exploit. Not biggest money available, but best ROI IMO.
I will agree with Comp. There are verrryyy few people out there, relative to the number of online poker players, that can make a living successfully playing online MTT. Here is what I know. I consider myself a decent MTTr. Not great, but decent. I met Awice and Vekked at COPC last year and I will tell you that these guys think and talk about the game on a level that nobody on this forum, bar maybe Watts, can comprehend.
These are the people that will have a $ev in poker that is greater than a $ev at a normal career.
For the rest of the good not great players - I do think that what I am currently doing is ideal. I have a stable career and essentially have a variable part time salary.
Ive averaged about 40k a year take home from poker over the last 3 years playing part time. So, it depends. It depends on whether you are comfortable living on 40k a year. Personally, I missed the bus and already had a mortgage, etc when I started playing. If I was single, no mortgage, and was more risk averse (IE 10 years ago) ABSOLUTELY I would be giving it a shot.
That said, I will never advocate poker as a career. There are too many unknown variables about the industry that make it a grey area for future lifeEV, because I'll tell you that if we ever go "USA" here in Canada I would hate to be the online pro with a 5 year gap in my resume.
So is it worth it, it depends.
It depends on your game intelligence. Are you one of the top 1% in the world?
It depends on your life status.
It depends on why you play.
It also depends if you can see the cards like Vekked.
Hope it was a joke, if so, good one.
Hope it was a joke, in not, please gain some perspective and accept reality.
i was never sure if i can do it but i will keep playing until i know otherwise...its a lot longer path than it looks at first but i think once you play full time you can grow pretty fast if you have the discipline.
i have found out one thing though...you have to love the game not the money...
edit: also that most people would hate the idea if they knew what it really took
I graduated uni in October 2010 and told myself I wanted to play full time for a year or two and see how well I could do, with the eventual plan being law school. I did pretty well playing solely on UB, and this continued into 2011. In January + February I had made around 23k (mtts + cash, had my biggest score). Since I felt I had a head start on the year and had never had such a nice cushion of $ irl, I barely played in March, and then BF happened in April, so I also didn`t play much then. Now I`ve finally decided to only focus on mtts on pokerstars because I never liked playing both forms of poker at the same time. However I have a hard time putting in any sort of decent volume with mtts (not sure whether I am sort of bored with it, or I`m just being lazy, or just that fishy thought that I could be glued to my chair for 8 hours and lose money tonight, instead of thinking about the long run). EX: tonight I should be grinding, but my friends wanna go out for sushi, so I`m going out for sushi. When I played cash, my life was easier to manage, because I could play a couple hours pretty much any time, and then go out. But I think MTTs are more profitable and more fun in the long run.
Anyways, I do know, in the back of my head, that if I ever want to be successful at mtts, I need to work harder and commit myself more, and eventually put in Vekked-like volume on a smaller-stakes level lol.
Anyways, as of right now, I`m making more money playing online poker than I would be working the sort of job I could have had right now. But for now, until my results improve + I move up stakes, the thought of doing this for a living 5 years from now is not really in my head. The goal is really just to make some decent money and save up for law school if I decide on that within the next 1-2 years, and other things that I`d like to do in the near future.
(Also, I realize that switching from being a lazy poker player to studying for lsats/putting in some more volunteer work/in general getting in won't be easy, and lots of ppl tell me it's hard to go back to school once you've been out of it for a while, but when the time comes I think I'll manage)
project yourself out 5-10 years.. What do you see yourself doing as a career? Or doing to earn a living? Surely not poker?
I've heard life is about finding a way to make money doing something you love (and not just teaching). i never that math could be one of them...don't know how far ill take it...don't know how good i can get.