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550 live hand....
final 30 just in the money payouts are flat pretty much till the ft.
my reads and numbers are all we get because apparently i can't even add three number together from playing online so much
theres 2 players late and there dead blinds will be posted soon.
hero is SB with 11 bbs after posting
2 folds
mp raises 3.5x
folds to hero QhTh
hero ?
mp is tightish and has at least 40 or 50 bbs and has no concept of the fact that he needs to snap call his entire range here.
assuming he only calls with aq+, JJ+ can his opening raise be reasonably wide enough to shove?
my thoughts are if i can get a fold or double up i will start taking the dead blinds and running the table over within 10 hands....
my reads and numbers are all we get because apparently i can't even add three number together from playing online so much
theres 2 players late and there dead blinds will be posted soon.
hero is SB with 11 bbs after posting
2 folds
mp raises 3.5x
folds to hero QhTh
hero ?
mp is tightish and has at least 40 or 50 bbs and has no concept of the fact that he needs to snap call his entire range here.
assuming he only calls with aq+, JJ+ can his opening raise be reasonably wide enough to shove?
my thoughts are if i can get a fold or double up i will start taking the dead blinds and running the table over within 10 hands....
Comments
Rich I know this guy is folding anything less than aqo, i really felt that at the time and I know it even more now. i had a guy raise from small blind with about 8bbs and fold to my shove. saw another guy call a preflop raise with about 5 or six bbs and fold to a continuation bet. still its a dicey play, but if he opens wide enough then he folds enough for sure....
....and ya obv im not stoked about the results of the hand but i wonder how far off i really was....
With this stack depths, it's a pretty trivial fold.
You assigned him a calling range of JJ+, AQ+....but realistically are you expecting a bad player to ever fold 99? AJo? KQo?
With your stack size and vs live opponents....it's a lot better/easier to open shove any two cards at the next available opportunity.
You're not in control of this situation. Even if he was raisefolding here a lot and that's a big if, you have no idea what kind of range he's making it 3,5x with. This is a 500 dollar tournament, don't just blindly assume you're the smartest guy at your table. Sounds to me like you just reshoved into a big hand and is trying to level yourself into thinking that you made a good shove. no offense meant
Edit: I mean if he's terrible I guess you can give yourself the illusion of a little bit of fold equity, but to rely on it doesn't feel like a good idea
ohhhhhh ya baby!:wink2:
While I am not agreeing with said play, I can honestly say that I guarantee these guys fold AJo and KQo. I was at another table with the same group/type of players and they were literally openfolding AQ, and folding AKs to shoves. I think they are the type of players that think they are good which in turn makes them bad...they congratulate each other (chipleader) on folding AKs to a small stack shove.."you don't need to waste 15k chips right now"..They literally call on the button with 5bb's and fold to a donk bet from bb.
When I was in the money in the 330, they were exactly the same..I expected play to loosen up, but nada. They were literally blown away that I would shove my small stack (9bbs?) with A4o from the sb... "what if he had a hand"? (this was an accidental show).
Tight folds can't describe a large portion of this crowd.
and shoving atc is not something im prepared to do at this point.
i wasn't at this point, it was final 3 tables and i had only 2 hands at the table, i could be sitting with a few sharks for sure....however this is a snap call for the mp raiser, and i knew that he didn't understand that.
online this would get snapped with villains entire range, live with 9 bbs effective he still gonna consider his hand vs my range which he feels is closer to qq+ ak.
we're talking about relying on the percentage he folds though right not wether he actually folds or not?
villain opens..
88+,A9s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,ATo+,KQo
4 x 9 suited
6 x 7 pairs
12 x 5 non suited non pairs
36 + 42 + 60 = 138
vilain folds TT-88,AJs-A9s,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AJo-ATo,KQo
4 x 7 suited
6 x 4 pairs
12 x 3 non suited non pairs
28 + 24 + 36 = 88
fold % 64
call % 36
hero win when called with JJ+,AQs+,AQo+ = 29.9
.64(23000) + .36(.29(88000) - .71(88000) )
.64(23000) + .36(-36960)
14720 + -13305 = +1414
1. There's always a chance you're wrong and he will call his entire range
2. If your math is correct you're taking a neutral ev spot rather than digging into the standard very +EV late position shoves in live games. If this math is correct, you're better off shoving ATC over and over again
i edited the numbers cause i didn't subtract the sb i paid this hand or the big i paid the previous...
hes not calling wider but he might not be opening wider, but i think thats unrealistic though....he might not be quite as wide as im suggesting. if it happens to be deemed neutral then i want this spot right now. there are four hands with dead blinds involved coming next and i wanted more than 8.5 bbs to deal with it.
This is pure guesswork on your part, and the biggest flaw in your logic
not sure if the formula is correct but i think his range could be
88+,A9s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,ATo+,KQo
the formula i attempted was:
percatage he folds time the amount of his bet plus the antes and blinds
+
perctenage he calls ((double my stack times my equity vs JJ+,AQs+,AQo) + (-double my stack times his range equity vs my qts)
i think j9s does a little better here which is funny because i said to myself i would snap shove j9s so i thought, 'man i have qts what am i thinking' and i jammed
I think it's a lot easier if you just used Pokerstove to estimate the % of hands.
Even with your math and knowing that it's a +EV shove in a vaccuum, I still will have to disagree with your decision in the hand.
Here is where I see the flaw in your logic:
A) From what I can tell, this is the third hand you've played with your opponent, and you've made a ton of assumptions with very little basis/reasoning. (From what I can tell you assumed he was folding AJ, because he tanked called AQ; but you wouldn't know he would fold AJ.....if he hadn't tanked and call with AQ).
What I mean by this is, that when you 3-bet shoved here you gain +0.4 bb edge. Now if instead you fold...and it gets to you in the CO in two hands...and you open shove 9 bets...and all 3 opponents will only call with say 1010+, AQ+....that only makes up 5% of all hands. I think this assumption is fair since, you're assigning a even tighter raise-calling range than just a straight out calling range.
So 0.95*.95*.95 = 85.74% of the time all three opponents fold.
14.26% of the time at least one will call.
ATCs shoving against AQ+, 1010+ has 27.579% equity.
Assume just the bb calls - it gives you a lower EV than if sb or button calls.
EV = .8574*(1bb+.5bb+.75bb) + (.1426)[(.27579)*(9bbs*2+0.5bbs+.75bbs)-9 bbs]
= .8574*2.25bbs + .1426(19.25bbs*.27579-9 bbs)
= 1.92915 bbs - .52634 bbs
= +1.4 bbs
I'm not 100% on the numbers as I'm playing...if the numbers are right, then I have found a spot that is almost twice as good as spot as yours. I gain +.7 bbs vs your +.4 EV spot....and I didn't even have to look at my cards.
If the table is tough and everyone is of the same skill...you really should take every +EV spot - if there's no icm considerations. For this particular situation, I think you're trying to make way too much happen....when there's better option around the corner.
*looked at it again...the math is wrong...for both yours and mine. The EV should be:
EV = (prob fold)(dead pot) + (1 - prob fold)[(Your Equity)(pot when called) - (Amount at risk when shoving)]
Holy shit. I think I actually understand this. I also think the game was much easier when I knew less.
now that i did a little math i know the ranges he needs about, so id need to decide if theyre resonable. you are correct i didn't know that, but i feel strongly about his folding range after the fact and after talking to him, i just don't know his opening range, but when i ran hands like ajo, kqo, 99 through my head i suspected he might fold enough for me to do this
yes this assumption would be fair i think, and i didn't see that until now. but i didn't know that at the time of course. and i think it would take too long to find out. but my open shove game is my strongest part (not 3 bet shoving yet though) but i felt that i needed chips immediately to realize that edge enough to make a dent in the game. also and this is kinda dumb but its something the helped make up my mind, i felt in that moment the table had me on qq+. I wish someone had seen it to comment on that. but i took that into account as part off my bluff.
yes you did, unfortunately i didn't quite know this.
i haven't folded a +ev spot (by my evaluation) out of icm considerarations yet..... since i knew about it. if i think its on the + side im taking it everytime but maybe i need to leave more room for erro. but i don't think there is icm here, Im to far from the ft payjumps....but thats my take on live play from the net....i had to guess at that kinda thing because its my first live game...i had no idea the table was this tight i just knew this guy doesn't snap me off, hes gonna consider the hand range equity but not that hes commited.
Yes i do however have a problem with putting my chips in the pot.
Youre comments and evaluation is much appreciated thx.
And even when you don't have to consider ICM, it's a mistake to take every +EV spot. Why take one +0.1 BB EV spot now, when you can find 10 +1.0BB EV spots later?
ive certainly been taking every +ev spot i can find.....
I spoke of this in some of my COPC article as far as number of players/ITM/Average cash and countinue to point it out regarding the prairies in general:
(Manitoba has the majority of big average finishes for all 3)
Here is a what my buddy found: "
I looked through top 100 guys Canada all time. There is nobody near doug. Ryan and couple Random are in top 20.
So many guys with no consistent cashes or results
Ontario has 75% of the top 100
Bc-12%
Montreal 12%
1% for sask, mb and Ab
How do these %'s compare to population?
On 38.7
Qc 23.2
Bc 13.3
ab 10.9
MB 3.7
SK 3.1
BC and AB are very close but the percentage of top players isn't by far. Ontario has triple the people but the ratio is still way off.
More so I notice that in every circle of top live players there are very good online players and players who use cardrunners or similar training and areas with less live poker produce better players as they are forced to learn in the tougher online fields
That and live players who believe they are doing alright play far less games and tend to shun online, while those forced to play online get in so much more experience if they are willing to tackle leaks and get on the winning side.
For example darbday and Dennis both cashed without knowing the players from before and both are from interior BC. How many medium limit tourneys have they had a chance to play? Good luck first time out?
Almost all the other top guys over this series either play tons online or ar travelling players who get more events in and have friends who play tons online that they learn with. Some just have more money than brains and still stuck after all the rentries and The majority of the rest are locals and percentage wise I would bet the average cash is miles apart, especially when you factor in ratios.
(I know this derails the Original post a bit, but a good portion of the thread seems to center around skill/playable range)
no worries i'd beat the o. post to death anyways. i hope i didn't imply that i thought the feild was bad though even if actually said that. I just didn't understand what to expect from live play and i just didn't think each cash table would have 3 or more guys reaching in there wallets every 5 mins.
I cashed in the top 10% in one but it doesn't make me think im that good. i'm just happy i feel i can play those profitabley (not including drinks).
i did however get called by bottom pair when i gave a tell that i had ak aq and i re raised shoved the flop
Don't think your coming across as implying the field is bad and your far from the first who comes from online to find live a much softer game theory wise. Timex said it flat out while in Calgary last. It's the very reason to play live tournaments, more dead money (like mine)
As far as the cash tables go, our pre series post both t8urmoney and I said there would be a ton of shooters and those looking to gambo gambo. Tourney series cash games can be hugely profitable if you can stay on the good side of it and not get run over to much. Best yet was 1700 in one hour (the wife) and I have seen guys rack as much as 4k in the same time on a 1/2 game. It's ridiculous play, but hey take it while you can get, cause the week after it's a grind to squeeze 8 bucks out of a guy in the same rooms.
The top guys, think you will find some of the names in the pre series thread also consistent. Dennis picked them out easily and yes as was said in this thread, it would be foolish to assume that everybody was soft. Like everywhere else, 10% of those guys are bloody beasts and have been slaying the game for years. Some are almost exclusively live players, but they know all the math and concepts just as well as online. There just isn't as many.
There was one I would love to introduce you to, he is funny as hell to listen to him spew out the online jargon than put it in simple live terms, eg, "his VPIP is x balh blah...what I think is this nit is tight as fuck and if I raise he'll fold". Or "I don't give a shit what the ICM says, the way I see it is I am going to take this above average stack and gonna keep shoving into all your asses until I am happy with my payday.". he is not fondof the words inelastic, vacuum or blockers run into one sentence as an excuse for making a completely wrong call and 3 outing
him either, lol.
Long story short, darbday, keep playing these and you'll prob make a ton of money. It's too bad you didn't final table as I think your impression of the players ranges would have changed when it got deeper stacked ITM.
Come the last event, guys are usually looking to get something going fast or go home or are clamed up tight trying to get unstuck, not to mention feeling the effects of the booze and long nights.