What I mean, is that your J8o push later in the game is gonna get called a lot by K6, Ax, blah blah..junk. these guys aren't gonna fold enough to make those pushes profitable..
can accurately do a comparison here.
Sure, shoving J8o against the blinds when they are <10bb is probably profitable...
done in the right circumstances it can be 'never not profitable' and almost always profitable with respect to chipev which is all there is before the money.....
...but without chips to get to that spot it is irrelevant.
this references us doubling up....but we also don't have the chips if we lose the race aswell....its mute i believe...(but i don't really know the definition of mute....
It has been a while since I did any turbo playing or strategy reading, but if I recall, anytime the word turbo is mentioned...most agree that you need to gamble in spots to take these down.
i think the top players (not me) don't agree ....we never gamble we only take what we believe are +ev spots....
I think it being a turbo makes ALL the difference. Regular structure I would be very on the fence personally and probably lean towards fold. In a turbo, no way. You are gonna see probably less than half the hands you would in a normal tournament by the time it is over...you need to take every edge you can and gamble a bit as well. Chip stacks early are important for when others are short...which doesn't take long in a turbo environment.
this may be popular belief but its sideways thought to what poker is......\
im not trying to be rude, im just being blunt so you know how i feel about this...
for example seeing less hands does not change the math as far as ev.....all we can do is make the most +ev play we can.....turbo doesn't change this and its all we can do...
I think 51% is being very generous to the villain. I was thinking about this while out on the road this morning..I don't know how to do the math on this..and/or maybe I am way off base...
Lets say we are crushed by AA or KK 5% of the time, in turn I think we would be well ahead (A8s+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,ATo++ random donk shoves) 25% of the time, and we would be flipping 70% of the time..
5%= 18/100
25%=66/100
70%=51/100
I don't know how to put those numbers together...but I think it's enough?
you left out all pocket pairs......
but also its important to note villains range is weighted towards pairs and especially monsters.......
its more like TT+ ak aqs and a few random junk..... that gives a way different equity %....
So as you can see in most instances AK is profitable to shove....and you do see what they are calling you with so just from a simple sample size you can see the players aren't "thinking" players.
i think turbos are close to the same variance as normal and easier because people feel they have to 'rush' and take marginal plays....
it has no value compared to somone with half the stack.....this is important because this why we would consider not calling here....
done in the right circumstances it can be 'never not profitable' and almost always profitable with respect to chipev which is all there is before the money.....
this references us doubling up....but we also don't have the chips if we lose the race aswell....its mute i believe...(but i don't really know the definition of mute....
i think the top players (not me) don't agree ....we never gamble we only take what we believe are +ev spots....
edge is the fallacy here i think......we need to look at ev.....and this is either the most neglabile amount or its -cev
i could be off on that last point but i feel like this isn't a turbo snap call...
We will discuss this more on the way to Edmonton...lol
These are the numbers generated in my head, therefore 100% correct.
The buy-in / format make this a quick call.
I see Richards points, but I just feel you need to push edges on these, and I think that's where the difference lies (ie. I see a bigger edge here than you do). To be honest, I'm probably calling in a non-turbo as well at this level, although that's probably not quite as good.
we could sample hh's to find the range but were not gonna but i think its more weight towards monsters.....
again edge is somewhat myth, in this sense anyways....if its +ev we call if not we fold....but if the players are bad...the edge is not here....
and i do think you unknowingly agree turbo/non turbo ......same thing...
Looks good dennis, I guess there are valid points as well to not shipping your stack off when someone open ships but I think in most training literature and training videos the first thing people discuss is characteristics of player types at that level and by using that you get donk shoves a high percentage of time.
about the buy in level though, though worse the players the less you would need to do this.....
but the range is possibley wider of the villain.....
Usually to win or cash in single table games you need to get at least 3-4k in chips and hold till the final 5 or 6 where you use your edge.
cashing/placing first is not our goal, highest roi is.......because we have to remember we bust close to equal the amount we double.....
and as a side not, when we double up early we are the only stack with 2x the starting stack....meaning we are playing all our hands effectively with the starting stack.....
I think it matters because we aren't going to see as many big hands in this game as we would a standard game. in 30 hands, or 15 min. we go from having a 75bb to about 12-15bb without playing a hand.
the reason the play doesn't change though is because our opponents won't either.....we don't need a different edge because nothing has changed.....poker time is cacluated by your stack vs. the blinds/antes. the timer for the tourney or your real clock is no more a part of the dimension than your clock vs your kings quest computer game world.....you make desicisions on the moment...which is the info at hand....
of that 50% we are likely to make the money much more often than if we fold and try to grind our way to the top through the bingo fest known as a low limit turbo each time.
yes of that 50% we are....but putting the two together (which is real) we are no more likely....
the reason the play doesn't change though is because our opponents won't either.....we don't need a different edge because nothing has changed.....poker time is cacluated by your stack vs. the blinds/antes. the timer for the tourney or your real clock is no more a part of the dimension than your clock vs your kings quest computer game world.....you make desicisions on the moment...which is the info at hand....
yes of that 50% we are....but putting the two together (which is real) we are no more likely....
The 50% of the time we do double up, we should make the money 3.5-4 times out of those five.. so...3.5/10. Are we in the money 3.5-4 out of 10 when we nit our little stack to the final table and start shoving atc because it is/should be profitable? Then we get called by hands that should have folded thus losing our profitability in said shoves and just sending us to the rail anyway.
The 50% of the time we do double up, we should make the money 3.5-4 times out of those five.. so...3.5/10. ?
all this math was calculated out and the answer came out to be take all the +ev plays you can find...and again this maybe +ev but its as marginal as it comes....
Are we in the money 3.5-4 out of 10 when we nit our little stack to the final table
itm is a trackable stat and i think youd find those that fold here have a higher itm than those that call....which is part of the reason i feel this way....and its not nitting until the final table....just the first few orbits in a turbo....(maybe a few more)
Then we get called by hands that should have folded thus losing our profitability in said shoves
no no no......this is what i think vekked tied in a knot......we will never lose profitability shoving nash....we may lose the hand but the fields range is never loose enough....
Nope, but I would have started 2 more in the meantime
this is where i shudder when i hear some pros says, if not just start another and move on. making a play based on just starting another because its a lower limit pull our roi down....
Only reason i had 4 BB's was that I was shoving close to every hand before that XD I lost like A9 < QJ, Q9s < QQ < 88, kj < 68 as well as AJ < QK to bust in a 50k pot the hand after this when he runner runner flushed me with 23 players out of 500 left ^^'
This is why I seriously consider making that same call on the Merge Network.. 22 buck tourney, freezeout. 3rd level.. This kind of nonsense happens ALL the time and gives a lot of value to hands we wouldn't normally consider even playing in this spot...It also lends a lot of value to what Magic said about shoving monsters early...these guys will call with anything..normally shoving AA isn't the optimal play this early...but look what they will call with...
I think it is a lot about knowing the type of opponents you are playing in your particular game and I think, like the Merge network, 6.50 turbos are full of weak players.
NCstateFan919 Posts SB 15.00
dmart25 Posts BB 30.00
harryhubbard Folds
EricStoner Folds
DennisBSPT Raised to 105.00 (AJs)
Parligod8051 Folds
shhrtm2 Calls 105.00
jarusf2 Calls 105.00
Watupcdub Calls 105.00
NCstateFan919 All In 2085.00
dmart25 Folds
DennisBSPT Folds
shhrtm2 All In 1965.00
jarusf2 Folds
Watupcdub Folds
shhrtm2 Shows (K2s)
NCstateFan919 Shows (55)
NCstateFan919 Won 30.00 from Pot 2 with Three of a Kind Fives
shhrtm2 Won 4485.00 from Pot 1 with Flush King High
You're contradicting yourself. If the turbos are full of weak players our mid to lategame edge will be greater.
Also, if you put in stacks AJ v K3 v 55 with 1500 chips each you gain like 200-250 chips. Sure that's a good edge but it's not more than that
I wouldn't say it is contradicting..they are full of weak players..which in turn makes the play at hand more profitable than it appears. Yes, it also means our edge is greater later on..but also increases variance...which we can compensate for by having a big stack..
I think what it really boils down to, is that the optimal play on paper might not be necessarily correct given the circumstances of some games..it is the same as making a call or fold based on a read. What looks good on paper may not necessarily be true in this particular circumstance. My read is different than yours in these type games obviously, so our play is going to vary.
I wouldn't put AJ there...it was just an example of knowing what to expect from pushes and calls in a certain circumstance....AK I might consider..just because I see this all the time on these sites...I am not afraid of busting here (with AK) because I know..if I double up here (and I think it's better than 50%), I go deep and into the money.. If I don't double up..so be it.
You're contradicting yourself. If the turbos are full of weak players our mid to lategame edge will be greater.
yes this is important because the lategame is where doubling up matters...roi wise......having a deepstack or small stack early has little bearining on our roi
Also, if you put in stacks AJ v K3 v 55 with 1500 chips each you gain like 200-250 chips. Sure that's a good edge but it's not more than that
thats not edge...actually maybe sit and go wizward call it edge but i think people get confused here when they call it edge....its ev and its important i think because my opinion is that doubling up (by flipping or just better than) early gives little to no edge.....
I wouldn't say it is contradicting..they are full of weak players..which in turn makes the play at hand more profitable than it appears. Yes, it also means our edge is greater later on..but also increases variance...which we can compensate for by having a big stack..
im not saying im right...im really not....but im looking forward to wetts or vekked replying here....
I saw this yesterday morning in the 2 45 runner sng's I played on tilt.
It all depends on what position I am in and if anyone else makes the call.
6 players pre flop BB shoves first hand 3 callers by the time it gets around to me. I am sitting with A-K os. I think for a minute. I want to call but figured the BB has the bullets. I decide to fold
SB Calls along with another SB K-K BB A-A 3 BTB 8-8
Flop 8-A-8 turn J river 2 lol
I would rather see a flop with this hand or maybe I make the call later if my stack can take a hit.
One thing I have realized is that in most cases a SS hits almost every time they shove regardless of what's in their hand.
Quad 8's felted me on the other table. after I Hit a Flush on the flop.
Ah-Kh Flop Jh-8h 10h Buddy hit is 8 on the river. FML
Everybody is different . You are going to find bingo douche bags regardless of what stakes you are playing....
Comments
What I mean, is that your J8o push later in the game is gonna get called a lot by K6, Ax, blah blah..junk. these guys aren't gonna fold enough to make those pushes profitable..
done in the right circumstances it can be 'never not profitable' and almost always profitable with respect to chipev which is all there is before the money.....
this references us doubling up....but we also don't have the chips if we lose the race aswell....its mute i believe...(but i don't really know the definition of mute....
i think the top players (not me) don't agree ....we never gamble we only take what we believe are +ev spots....
edge is the fallacy here i think......we need to look at ev.....and this is either the most neglabile amount or its -cev
i could be off on that last point but i feel like this isn't a turbo snap call...
im not trying to be rude, im just being blunt so you know how i feel about this...
for example seeing less hands does not change the math as far as ev.....all we can do is make the most +ev play we can.....turbo doesn't change this and its all we can do...
you left out all pocket pairs......
but also its important to note villains range is weighted towards pairs and especially monsters.......
its more like TT+ ak aqs and a few random junk..... that gives a way different equity %....
We will discuss this more on the way to Edmonton...lol
again edge is somewhat myth, in this sense anyways....if its +ev we call if not we fold....but if the players are bad...the edge is not here....
and i do think you unknowingly agree turbo/non turbo ......same thing...
All the pocket pairs are in the flipping range (3rd) and if we use QQ-TT,ATs+,AKo we are still at 51% add in random junk and AK only looks better.
Exactly what makes AKo more valuable here.
edit- FTR...I am quite enjoying this discussion
but the range is possibley wider of the villain.....
cashing/placing first is not our goal, highest roi is.......because we have to remember we bust close to equal the amount we double.....
and as a side not, when we double up early we are the only stack with 2x the starting stack....meaning we are playing all our hands effectively with the starting stack.....
i think i got all this from Tony Guerrera...
yes of that 50% we are....but putting the two together (which is real) we are no more likely....
not sure what your refering too but this is our edge
not a fact though....>:D
The 50% of the time we do double up, we should make the money 3.5-4 times out of those five.. so...3.5/10. Are we in the money 3.5-4 out of 10 when we nit our little stack to the final table and start shoving atc because it is/should be profitable? Then we get called by hands that should have folded thus losing our profitability in said shoves and just sending us to the rail anyway.
Definitely a fact that it is a turbo
Nope, but I would have started 2 more in the meantime
itm is a trackable stat and i think youd find those that fold here have a higher itm than those that call....which is part of the reason i feel this way....and its not nitting until the final table....just the first few orbits in a turbo....(maybe a few more)
no no no......this is what i think vekked tied in a knot......we will never lose profitability shoving nash....we may lose the hand but the fields range is never loose enough....
the times we hit the rail were in the calculation that said the nash shove is going to be profitable.....
this is where i shudder when i hear some pros says, if not just start another and move on. making a play based on just starting another because its a lower limit pull our roi down....
3 minute turbo's are awesome
I think it is a lot about knowing the type of opponents you are playing in your particular game and I think, like the Merge network, 6.50 turbos are full of weak players.
NCstateFan919 Posts SB 15.00
dmart25 Posts BB 30.00
harryhubbard Folds
EricStoner Folds
DennisBSPT Raised to 105.00 (AJs)
Parligod8051 Folds
shhrtm2 Calls 105.00
jarusf2 Calls 105.00
Watupcdub Calls 105.00
NCstateFan919 All In 2085.00
dmart25 Folds
DennisBSPT Folds
shhrtm2 All In 1965.00
jarusf2 Folds
Watupcdub Folds
shhrtm2 Shows (K2s)
NCstateFan919 Shows (55)
NCstateFan919 Won 30.00 from Pot 2 with Three of a Kind Fives
shhrtm2 Won 4485.00 from Pot 1 with Flush King High
Also, if you put in stacks AJ v K3 v 55 with 1500 chips each you gain like 200-250 chips. Sure that's a good edge but it's not more than that
I wouldn't say it is contradicting..they are full of weak players..which in turn makes the play at hand more profitable than it appears. Yes, it also means our edge is greater later on..but also increases variance...which we can compensate for by having a big stack..
I think what it really boils down to, is that the optimal play on paper might not be necessarily correct given the circumstances of some games..it is the same as making a call or fold based on a read. What looks good on paper may not necessarily be true in this particular circumstance. My read is different than yours in these type games obviously, so our play is going to vary.
I wouldn't put AJ there...it was just an example of knowing what to expect from pushes and calls in a certain circumstance....AK I might consider..just because I see this all the time on these sites...I am not afraid of busting here (with AK) because I know..if I double up here (and I think it's better than 50%), I go deep and into the money.. If I don't double up..so be it.
thats not edge...actually maybe sit and go wizward call it edge but i think people get confused here when they call it edge....its ev and its important i think because my opinion is that doubling up (by flipping or just better than) early gives little to no edge.....
It all depends on what position I am in and if anyone else makes the call.
6 players pre flop BB shoves first hand 3 callers by the time it gets around to me. I am sitting with A-K os. I think for a minute. I want to call but figured the BB has the bullets. I decide to fold
SB Calls along with another SB K-K BB A-A 3 BTB 8-8
Flop 8-A-8 turn J river 2 lol
I would rather see a flop with this hand or maybe I make the call later if my stack can take a hit.
One thing I have realized is that in most cases a SS hits almost every time they shove regardless of what's in their hand.
Quad 8's felted me on the other table. after I Hit a Flush on the flop.
Ah-Kh Flop Jh-8h 10h Buddy hit is 8 on the river. FML
Everybody is different . You are going to find bingo douche bags regardless of what stakes you are playing....