When to fold AK?
Ok so I know it's not the easiest hand in the world to fold. I've heard even the great ones will fold it so as to not get knocked out on the first day of a tourney on a coin flip.
I've resently consultant a Poker Coach and he was coaching me at a PStarts $6.50 18 player Turbo SNG. First round in the tourney, 3rd hand dealt I pick up AKo UTG+1. Player UTG goes all in for 1,500 blinds are 10/20. I'm thinking, idiot this is poker not bingo. Just as I was about to fold because I don't like risking my whole stack on a coin flip suck out 3 hands in, my poker coach told me to call. Then he proceeded to inform me that if I fold AKo I might as well quit playing poker. Needless to say I haven't called him back. I don't necessarily look at it as a conservative play, but more of a "don't call the donk" play. True I could have doubled up, but also true I'm putting my tournament at riskin just 3 hands in the hands of the poker Gods. I prefer, especially in the early stages of a tourney, to play skillful poker and earn my big stack, not gamble on it. I save that for when my M is low.
Thoughts and opinions?
I've resently consultant a Poker Coach and he was coaching me at a PStarts $6.50 18 player Turbo SNG. First round in the tourney, 3rd hand dealt I pick up AKo UTG+1. Player UTG goes all in for 1,500 blinds are 10/20. I'm thinking, idiot this is poker not bingo. Just as I was about to fold because I don't like risking my whole stack on a coin flip suck out 3 hands in, my poker coach told me to call. Then he proceeded to inform me that if I fold AKo I might as well quit playing poker. Needless to say I haven't called him back. I don't necessarily look at it as a conservative play, but more of a "don't call the donk" play. True I could have doubled up, but also true I'm putting my tournament at riskin just 3 hands in the hands of the poker Gods. I prefer, especially in the early stages of a tourney, to play skillful poker and earn my big stack, not gamble on it. I save that for when my M is low.
Thoughts and opinions?
Comments
Guess I should add to this.. First off, it's a turbo...you need to build your stack when you can. Coin flips are a big part of the turbo game. He doesn't have aces, or he wouldn't shove...likely 77-jj, AK or AQ (from my exp. here).
It is a 6 buck game..many of the players at this level are not optimal players (hence the stack shove at this level) and you need to win flips with turbos...
These online games are a lot different than a live tourney where stacks are deep and time is abundant... where a pro will fold to avoid a coin flip early.
Edit: btw, If I'm not mistaken the value of doubling up in an 18 man tourney isn't too great, even in a turbo?
I don't think an "edge" counts for much in a low limit turbo game...I could be wrong..but that is my thought..double up or move on.
they are possible, I completely agree...but I just feel that even the worst players out there aren't often shoving them here...more likely a min raise or a limp trying to be tricky.
Again..I may just play too "go big or go home" with this type of game, for my own good...
Your coach was correct. You are looking for winning plays for the long term and unless you have some history you aren't going to get much of a better spot to put yourself into a good position in a tournament that early on.
Now with that said, if you want to exploit these games, play your big hands fast. I shove AA and KK most times there because I know people are calling light and they think I am doing a donk move.
I guess I don't see the logic here. Sure you can steal the blinds with your J8o, but if you get called here you are at best probably 40%. (not saying I wouldn't shove here either) And how long are you gonna wait for that spot?
We know we are showing our hand with the AKo and with my personal gut/exp. on what he is gonna flip we are 51%..good enough for me in these turbos. By the time we get around to getting a good hand in position we maybe only have 10 bb's ourselves.
As Magic also said...shoving our big hands in these tournies is golden...if you have a read this player is one of the people that understand/know that, sure..you can fold..but blind...I am still calling.
Thanks guys for you input. BTW, I can't remember what the guy had but I did lose the hand. Kind of tough to take your coaches advise when that happens.
I think it being a turbo makes ALL the difference. Regular structure I would be very on the fence personally and probably lean towards fold. In a turbo, no way. You are gonna see probably less than half the hands you would in a normal tournament by the time it is over...you need to take every edge you can and gamble a bit as well. Chip stacks early are important for when others are short...which doesn't take long in a turbo environment.
Being a low limit turbo SNG on stars....enter that into the equation as well. Obviously I am not shipping AK in a 109.00 or a 215.00 buy 6.50 and under all day. Here are some examples:
PokerStars - $1.50+$0.25|15/30 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: PokerTracker - Online Poker Software, Player Stats Tracking & HUD
BTN: 1,935.00
SB: 960.00
BB: 2,105.00
UTG: 1,440.00
Hero (UTG+1): 1,070.00
MP: 1,175.00
CO: 1,645.00
SB posts SB 15.00, BB posts BB 30.00
Pre Flop: (45.00) Hero has Ks Ah
UTG raises to 105.00, Hero raises to 1,070.00 and is all-in, MP calls 1,070.00, fold, BTN calls 1,070.00, fold, fold, fold
Flop: (3360.00, 3 players) Jh Kh 8h
MP bets 105.00 and is all-in, BTN calls 105.00
Turn: (3570.00, 3 players) Th
River: (3570.00, 3 players) 5d
MP shows 8c Jc (Two Pair, Jacks and Eights) (PreFlop 33%, Flop 44%, Turn 10%)
BTN shows 5s 5h (Flush, King High) (PreFlop 30%, Flop 7%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows Ks Ah (Flush, Ace High) (PreFlop 37%, Flop 50%, Turn 90%)
BTN wins 210.00
Hero wins 3,360.00
PokerStars - $3+$0.40|15/30 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: PokerTracker - Online Poker Software, Player Stats Tracking & HUD
SB: 3,212.00
Hero (BB): 1,880.00
UTG: 1,336.00
UTG+1: 1,436.00
MP: 826.00
MP+1: 1,720.00
CO: 1,470.00
BTN: 1,620.00
SB posts SB 15.00, Hero posts BB 30.00
Pre Flop: (45.00) Hero has As Kd
UTG raises to 60.00, fold, MP calls 60.00, fold, fold, BTN calls 60.00, SB calls 45.00, Hero raises to 1,880.00 and is all-in, UTG calls 1,276.00 and is all-in, MP calls 766.00 and is all-in, fold, fold
Flop: (3618.00, 3 players) Qs Ac 7s
Turn: (3618.00, 3 players) Kh
River: (3618.00, 3 players) 7d
Hero shows As Kd (Two Pair, Aces and Kings) (PreFlop 35%, Flop 82%, Turn 95%)
UTG shows 5d 5c (Two Pair, Sevens and Fives) (PreFlop 43%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
MP shows Ad 6d (Two Pair, Aces and Sevens) (PreFlop 22%, Flop 10%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins 3,618.00
PokerStars - $1.50+$0.25|25/50 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: PokerTracker - Online Poker Software, Player Stats Tracking & HUD
SB: 1,555.00
BB: 1,260.00
UTG: 3,915.00
Hero (UTG+1): 1,450.00
MP: 2,505.00
CO: 1,390.00
BTN: 1,425.00
SB posts SB 25.00, BB posts BB 50.00
Pre Flop: (75.00) Hero has Kd As
UTG calls 50.00, Hero raises to 1,450.00 and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1,210.00 and is all-in, fold
Flop: (2595.00, 2 players) 9d Jh Ah
Turn: (2595.00, 2 players) 9h
River: (2595.00, 2 players) Jc
BB shows Tc Th (Two Pair, Jacks and Tens) (PreFlop 57%, Flop 17%, Turn 25%)
Hero shows Kd As (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks) (PreFlop 43%, Flop 83%, Turn 75%)
Hero wins 2,595.00
PokerStars - $3+$0.40|25/50 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: PokerTracker - Online Poker Software, Player Stats Tracking & HUD
MP+1: 1,555.00
CO: 1,115.00
Hero (BTN): 2,310.00
SB: 2,235.00
BB: 1,380.00
UTG: 1,450.00
UTG+1: 1,700.00
MP: 1,755.00
SB posts SB 25.00, BB posts BB 50.00
Pre Flop: (75.00) Hero has Ks Ah
fold, UTG+1 calls 50.00, fold, MP+1 calls 50.00, fold, Hero raises to 250.00, fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 1,555.00 and is all-in, Hero calls 1,305.00
Flop: (3235.00, 2 players) 8s 2s 7s
Turn: (3235.00, 2 players) 8c
River: (3235.00, 2 players) Qh
MP+1 shows 4c 3c (One Pair, Eights) (PreFlop 41%, Flop 13%, Turn 9%)
Hero shows Ks Ah (One Pair, Eights) (PreFlop 59%, Flop 87%, Turn 91%)
Hero wins 3,235.00
And because I am not biased:
PokerStars - $1.50+$0.25|15/30 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: PokerTracker - Online Poker Software, Player Stats Tracking & HUD
BTN: 5,385.00
SB: 1,420.00
Hero (BB): 1,635.00
UTG: 1,460.00
UTG+1: 1,400.00
MP: 2,200.00
MP+1: 365.00
CO: 1,225.00
SB posts SB 15.00, Hero posts BB 30.00
Pre Flop: (45.00) Hero has Ac Kh
fold, UTG+1 calls 30.00, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 30.00, fold, Hero raises to 1,635.00 and is all-in, UTG+1 calls 1,370.00 and is all-in, fold
Flop: (2845.00, 2 players) 3c 7h Jc
Turn: (2845.00, 2 players) 3h
River: (2845.00, 2 players) Qh
Hero shows Ac Kh (One Pair, Threes) (PreFlop 6%, Flop 6%, Turn 0%)
UTG+1 shows As Ah (Two Pair, Aces and Threes) (PreFlop 94%, Flop 94%, Turn 100%)
UTG+1 wins 2,845.00
PokerStars - $3+$0.40|75/150 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: PokerTracker - Online Poker Software, Player Stats Tracking & HUD
Hero (SB): 4,995.00
BB: 1,260.00
UTG: 3,345.00
CO: 4,829.00
BTN: 1,550.00
Hero posts SB 75.00, BB posts BB 150.00
Pre Flop: (225.00) Hero has Kd Ac
fold, CO raises to 600.00, fold, Hero raises to 4,995.00 and is all-in, fold, CO calls 4,229.00 and is all-in
Flop: (9808.00, 2 players) Ad 9h 7s
Turn: (9808.00, 2 players) Th
River: (9808.00, 2 players) 7c
Hero shows Kd Ac (Two Pair, Aces and Sevens) (PreFlop 74%, Flop 87%, Turn 93%)
CO shows Ah Qs (Two Pair, Aces and Sevens) (PreFlop 26%, Flop 13%, Turn 7%)
Hero wins 9,808.00
So as you can see in most instances AK is profitable to shove....and you do see what they are calling you with so just from a simple sample size you can see the players aren't "thinking" players.
Are you being sarcastic?
J8o is a much worse hand to shove than AK.
j8o is worse but the value of doubling up is less than later in the tourney...
ako doesn't crush any range is all.....
hmm, am I? This is probably a good exercise for you to do. Find yourself an icm calculator and calculate both the cEV as well as the $EV for every player in the tournament for the two spots (calling with AK and shoving J8). I don't really know the results myself
Can the value of a big stack early in a turbo tournament be calculated? I don't think we will find anything out there that can accurately do a comparison here.
Sure, shoving J8o against the blinds when they are <10bb is probably profitable...but without chips to get to that spot it is irrelevant.
It has been a while since I did any turbo playing or strategy reading, but if I recall, anytime the word turbo is mentioned...most agree that you need to gamble in spots to take these down. The slightest edge is a good one...a big chip stack is a nice edge...as is 51%.
Everyone keeps saying there's value in having a big stack but I don't see it, this is not an mtt, you're not gonna be opening QJs UTG and firing twice on bords just to prove your penis is long enough to do that
Also, 51% is not a good edge, it doesn't beat the rake and it's not even close to something I'd aim for when calling off 75 BBs with nothing invested
I appreaciate all your remarks. I truly gives me a better understanding of When to fold AK.
You are correct, this isn't an MTT..we don't have time to wait for hands and good situations..this is a turbo sng. The big stack gives us room to breathe. Double up or fire up a new game..if 6.50 is the end of your roll, and you can't just reload...you are doing it wrong.
You are only getting 10? (115hph on a turbo?) hands per blind level..when do you want to play your big hands? 30 hands, and 3 blind levels later we are missing a sig. portion of our stack at 50/100 if we haven't seen a big hand..
I think 51% is being very generous to the villain. I was thinking about this while out on the road this morning..I don't know how to do the math on this..and/or maybe I am way off base...
Lets say we are crushed by AA or KK 5% of the time, in turn I think we would be well ahead (A8s+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,ATo++ random donk shoves) 25% of the time, and we would be flipping 70% of the time..
5%= 18/100
25%=66/100
70%=51/100
I don't know how to put those numbers together...but I think it's enough?
Usually to win or cash in single table games you need to get at least 3-4k in chips and hold till the final 5 or 6 where you use your edge.
I didn't mean that we had 51% equity in this pot if called, I just said that 51 wasn't enough in to call off in my eyes if it were indeed that. You said it was a decent edge for you
I don't really know where you got the numbers in the bottom from but there's a pretty important flaw there in that when we're "flipping" for stacks we're not winning 51/100 but rather somewhere between 43 and 48 depending on the pair we're up against with AKo
Given the type of game (ie:low limit turbo), it is enough for me to get it in..
When I did this number I included the AK's we are chopping, and the AQ's as well as I feel those are valid in both sets of ranges (QQ-77,AQs+,AQo+)
I think the numbers would be more like this:
KK+ = <5%
Randoms we're crushing or beating = 65%
Pairs we're flipping = 30%
These are the numbers generated in my head, therefore 100% correct.
The buy-in / format make this a quick call.
I see Richards points, but I just feel you need to push edges on these, and I think that's where the difference lies (ie. I see a bigger edge here than you do). To be honest, I'm probably calling in a non-turbo as well at this level, although that's probably not quite as good.
1. Why does it matter that it's a turbo when we're 75 BB's deep?
2. Your numbers are strange, can't really check them or give UTG any sort of range at all with the info we have
3. Saying that AK call here is whatever or folding AK is not about being poor or lowering your varience, it's a matter of what we think will yield the most money in the long run, calling or folding
Edit: I feel there are MAJOR edges to be had in these just by putting it in with the worst hand over and over again later on and wearing everyone down with some intense nash plays
See, edges ^^' I just reshipped my 4 BB stack with 84o and my opponent probably disconnected, bet you can't do that with your AK
OnGame - 1500/3000 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com
CO: 24,217.00
BTN: 9,690.00
SB: 9,274.00
Hero (BB): 11,562.00
UTG: 22,218.00
UTG+1: 28,949.00
MP: 10,505.00
MP+1: 16,242.00
LP: 12,620.00
SB posts ante 300.00,
Hero posts ante 300.00,
UTG posts ante 300.00,
UTG+1 posts ante 300.00,
MP posts ante 300.00,
MP+1 posts ante 300.00,
LP posts ante 300.00,
CO posts ante 300.00,
BTN posts ante 300.00,
SB posts SB 1,500.00,
Hero posts BB 3,000.00
Pre Flop: (7200.00) Hero has :4h :8d
fold,
fold,
fold,
fold,
LP raises to 6,000.00,
fold,
fold,
fold,
Hero raises to 11,262.00 and is all-in,
fold
Hero wins 16,200.00
I think it matters because we aren't going to see as many big hands in this game as we would a standard game. in 30 hands, or 15 min. we go from having a 75bb to about 12-15bb without playing a hand. We have given him 3 ranges..that include about the top 20ish % of hands. Want to open his range even wider? We are looking even better.
The OP asked if this was our last 6.50 would we do the same...hence the reference to the b.r.
I personally feel that if we double up here, we increase our long term yield much more than if we wait. just for numbers...let's say we double up here 50% of the time..of that 50% we are likely to make the money much more often than if we fold and try to grind our way to the top through the bingo fest known as a low limit turbo each time.
Our profitable Nash pushes later in the game are gonna get called by better junk way too often in these games I think.
The fact that it is a low limit turbo MUST be taken into consideration.
lol..no, I am the one getting disconnected!
You wouldn't be stuck shipping 4bb if you had of doubled up earlier