thoughts? lost value?
I am running 30/24 over 35 hands so far..shown a mix, but have had pretty solid cards. Villian is 19/8
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $30(BB) Pacific
SB ($5,787)
Hero ($8,703)
UTG ($6,860)
UTG+1 ($4,575)
UTG+2 ($5,930)
MP1 ($4,680)
MP2 ($4,910)
CO ($4,850)
BTN ($4,600)
Dealt to Hero K:spade: K:club:
fold, fold, UTG+2 calls $30, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $120, fold, Hero raises to $405, fold, BTN calls $285
FLOP ($855) Q:club: 4
Q:diamond:
Hero checks, looking to check raiseBTN checkslooking to check raise..
TURN ($855) Q:club: 4 Q:diamond: 4:diamond:
Hero bets $427, BTN calls $427bigger queens certainly in his range..
RIVER ($1,709) Q:club: 4 Q:diamond: 4:diamond: 2:spade:
Hero checks, BTN checks I decided to check call here but....is a value bet getting paid here with anything that isn't beating me? smaller pair maybe?
BTN shows T A
(Pre 33%, Flop 15.7%, Turn 6.8%)
Hero shows K:spade: K:club:
(Pre 67%, Flop 84.3%, Turn 93.2%)
Hero wins $1,709
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $30(BB) Pacific
SB ($5,787)
Hero ($8,703)
UTG ($6,860)
UTG+1 ($4,575)
UTG+2 ($5,930)
MP1 ($4,680)
MP2 ($4,910)
CO ($4,850)
BTN ($4,600)
Dealt to Hero K:spade: K:club:
fold, fold, UTG+2 calls $30, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $120, fold, Hero raises to $405, fold, BTN calls $285
FLOP ($855) Q:club: 4
Q:diamond:Hero checks, looking to check raiseBTN checkslooking to check raise..
TURN ($855) Q:club: 4
Q:diamond: 4:diamond:Hero bets $427, BTN calls $427bigger queens certainly in his range..
RIVER ($1,709) Q:club: 4
Q:diamond: 4:diamond: 2:spade:Hero checks, BTN checks I decided to check call here but....is a value bet getting paid here with anything that isn't beating me? smaller pair maybe?
BTN shows T
A(Pre 33%, Flop 15.7%, Turn 6.8%)
Hero shows K:spade: K:club:
(Pre 67%, Flop 84.3%, Turn 93.2%)
Hero wins $1,709
Comments
And I probably bet the river, definitely will get looked up by pps and A-high sometimes.
+1
check call is my play here
Well, actually I have him being pretty tight, so I am hoping something like AK, 1010, JJ.. again queens aren't out of the picture either..but, not that concerned..more thinking along the lines that, if I bet here, he just leaves without the Q...if I check raise, I gain a bet....I really expected a bet out of him when I checked the flop...or I would have just bet it..
Tourney is a 75 buck 50k guarantee, 400+ runners on 888. Mostly sat. players that are, for the most part, poor players.
Looking back over it...yeah...should have bet the river..as many pp's and A high might call as JD mentioned..but when he flatted the turn bet I immediately saw monsters under the bed (AQ in particular) instead of the rest of the possibilities..
this i think is the key to this hand.
As played, I value bet river. Something small thats callable, like 1/3 pot.
so if villain has a queen, you bet flop, then bet the turn, and call a re raise (no you didn't mean that), then check call the river bet?
If I KNOW villian has a Q then I check/fold flop. This may be a leak of mine, but if he's floating with AK high, JJ, TT, 99 etc. then we need to value bet turn as well. If he's willing to float the flop, he'll float the turn. You also can't assume that every time he raises the turn he has a Q. I never give him credit for a 4 so only a Q is beating us. Since we know 2 of them are out, He can ONLY have AQ or QQ. MAYBE KQs and QJs but thats stretching it. Either way there's a lot more combinations of hands that we beat that will call 2 bets then would beat us.
villains preflop play includes a wide range. kqo, qt, aa, and weird things to raise from button and call a raise when the limper folded, id do q8s and q9s every time (for this reason).
we don't know he has a queen but id like to protect myself a little from all that range. not look like a donkey when we bet half our stack off and call a river shove because we are commited and believe we are ahead of his range.
or maybe we fold because the villain realized we wouldn't bet out with a queen and stacks us at some point.
i think betting the hand up is throwing to much around while being totally in the dark.
Why would he be willing to float the turn just because he was willing the float the flop? this would be a major leak for our villain in that case. Also, given that he ended up showing down the a10o or whatever it was, you probably can't make too many assumptions about his range, he probably hates folding to 3bets
if he's me, he's very happy playing on the button against such a polarized big blind hand
Because in this situation whatever he has, either nothing has changed for him or his hand improved. Any A high hand is ahead or chopping any unmade hand, which might call another bet if he thought he was ahead on the flop. Any lower PP thought he was good on the flop here, so he would probably call or raise the turn. We might certainly bet an A high hand here too given our aggression so far, so sometimes he's correct.
Villian allready has a major leak calling a 3bet with AT and floating the flop when he missed, so why not exploit it more? Given that he has a small range of holdings, and I really dont put him on QT and Q9 because it's just a horrible play imo, I believe this is a hand where we get value from.
I would be much more scared of a flop like TT9 suited board. But this QQ4 is a nice flop for a hand, and I don't mind double barrelling this and c/c the river here.
he raised, from the button, to isolate the early limper in position was re raised and gets to play at a pot in position against JJ+, AKs which is what your representing i think. i'd say its standard and i think lots of players get in that spot with qts q9s etc.
No, we bet a second time which is a pretty big change from the flop situation
Gl making a profit playing against ppl with a nutted range with marginal hands. Its standard to snap fold those pre.
This sounds like a sweet way to get value towned by a Q. Fish are almost always going to slowplay flop, and raise or call turn, then bet river if checked to. You're not getting 3 streets of value in this hand unless someone's spazzing.
2 to 1 in position heads up and you know what his hand is? this is the whole concept of small ball no? ill admit its a little bit to big of a bet preflop....but its close enough to have the villain on a wider range i think.
i think its safe to say bb is generally going to give us all his chips if we hit....
meh.....profits are overrated:cool2:
Reverse implied odds anyone? <.<
not against his preflop range.
1. 2:1 odds mean nothing when all the chips aren't in pre-flop.
2. You might think you know what his range is, but you still can't just call with
whatever and hope to suckout, the fact is he has the best hand on the flop the vast majority of the time, the turn the vast majority of the time, and the river the vast majority of the time.
3. It's not at all safe to say you're going to get all his chips when you 'hit' with Q9 or w/e terrible hands you're calling with.
4. You're gonna hit 2 pair and still not be good sometimes.
5. You're gonna hit 1 pair and put some money in the pot behind before you find out you're behind.
6. You're gonna get barreled off the best hand some % of the time (say the flop comes T96 2 spades and he has AK of spades vs. your Q9 and bets flop and turn... where are you at?)
7. You're gonna still have to pull moves in some spots to get him off the best hand to make calling profitable... do you really think you can do that?
I could go on and on, but it's just not gonna be profitable for 99% of players. Just stick with hands that have the best equity when you're playing big pots.
Actually there still is...
well.....^-^......
anyways, i obviously can't argue but i just thought this hand was straight outa DN's small ball poker.
This is a pretty classic way ahead, way behind scenario.
18/9 button raising range to isolate a limper can be fairly wide, but when he calls your big 3bet he most likely has a big A, a pocket pair, probably 88+, and maybe KQ if he's really stubborn.
I hate check raising the flop. You're only really afraid of AA (unlikely, as he probably 4bets preflop) or Qx (most likely being AQ or KQ). If you check-raise, you're folding out all of his range you're beating and only being called by Qx.
Betting the flop will probably be called by Qs and all pocket pairs in his range, but it will be hard to distinguish which.
I like checking the flop to let him act. When he checks behind on the flop it seems more likely that you're way ahead and against a pocket pair.
I like your bet on the turn. A Qx hand probably raises you now, so the flat is actually good news.
Bet a little more than 1/2 the pot on the river and fold to a raise.
naw i liked it...