For a $215 prize, I would never fold AA pre-flop.... Would I push with 23off in a $0.50 tournament....
It is a no-brainer for me to try to make the correct poker decision, whether it is a 50¢ game, a $11 unlimited rebuy, or the WSOP Main Event. In this case, if folding had a higher $EV than re-raising all-in with AA, then I would gladly fold AA. Unfortunately, I don't know of an ICM calculator that can handle 15 paid spots and more than one table to check the $EV (as smartly mentioned by ReefAquarium).
I am getting ~85% equity with AA against villain's range. If my chances of outlasting the three shorter stacks are greater than 85%, then I would fold AA. As mentioned by 88Fingers, another factor is the possibility of getting more than one caller (e.g., there are two players with 2.5-3.5x times my chips who can afford to call if they think they have a good enough hand), so my equity would drop down below what is required to make it +$EV compared to folding. In hindsight, I should have folded the best hand in poker.
However, with my remaining time bank beeping, I had to go with my "gut feeling" :redface: at the time. I went all-in, villain called with
:kh :8h
I have 83% equity. I was screaming "Hold! Hold! Hold!" like in Braveheart. Flop is safe with
:10d :qh :5d
I now have 92% equity. I will double up to over 44,000 chips and be safe with the satellite prize - unless he gets runner-runner.
:9d
:jh
for the runner-runner straight.
Did I say that online poker is not rigged?!
The buy-in should not make a difference in this discussion. It is about MTT Strategy and "satellite near bubble optimal play" with all the conditions set for in the OP.
granted the buy-in should not make a difference, but the advice should be tailored to the person asking the question.
Good call Buddy, unfortunate outcome. btw, if online poker was rigged, the 9 & 10 would have been hearts and you would have had :ah.
If you fold and EVEN IF ONE short stack doubles up, there are still a couple of other shorter stacks, so I believe I maximize my profit in the long run by folding AA.
If you fold and EVEN IF ONE short stack doubles up, there are still a couple of other shorter stacks, so I believe I maximize my profit in the long run by folding AA.
But for the guy who raise you isn't he pretty much guarenteed a spot if he folds every hand? So if you re raised him all in shouldn't he have to lay down anything less than Aces? And if he does call isn't he a huge underdog. I don't know if thats right but if it is I would shove.
Comments
I am getting ~85% equity with AA against villain's range. If my chances of outlasting the three shorter stacks are greater than 85%, then I would fold AA. As mentioned by 88Fingers, another factor is the possibility of getting more than one caller (e.g., there are two players with 2.5-3.5x times my chips who can afford to call if they think they have a good enough hand), so my equity would drop down below what is required to make it +$EV compared to folding. In hindsight, I should have folded the best hand in poker.
However, with my remaining time bank beeping, I had to go with my "gut feeling" :redface: at the time. I went all-in, villain called with
:kh :8h
I have 83% equity. I was screaming "Hold! Hold! Hold!" like in Braveheart. Flop is safe with
:10d :qh :5d
I now have 92% equity. I will double up to over 44,000 chips and be safe with the satellite prize - unless he gets runner-runner.
:9d
:jh
for the runner-runner straight.
Did I say that online poker is not rigged?!
granted the buy-in should not make a difference, but the advice should be tailored to the person asking the question.
Good call Buddy, unfortunate outcome. btw, if online poker was rigged, the 9 & 10 would have been hearts and you would have had :ah.
Loved the answer, shows the whole picture.
But for the guy who raise you isn't he pretty much guarenteed a spot if he folds every hand? So if you re raised him all in shouldn't he have to lay down anything less than Aces? And if he does call isn't he a huge underdog. I don't know if thats right but if it is I would shove.