Should I fold AA preflop?
Situation: You are on the bubble of a 15-seat satellite to a Sunday Major. There is one shorter stack on your table, and two with almost the same stack as you in the other 8-player table.
NL Texas Hold'em $11 USD Buy-in
Blinds-Antes(2,000/4,000 -100) - Friday
Table $300K Gtd Sunday Qualifier Rebuy 15 Seats Gtd Table #2 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 7: VGrandioos ( 46,918 )
Seat 2: BLONDEFISH ( 18,808 )
Seat 5: VRugDoctor886 ( 8,256 )
Seat 4: VWinniPuuh ( 32,440 )
Seat 6: VjEpz_ ( 67,135 )
Seat 9: Vjoezeta ( 104,391 )
Seat 1: Vkralle574 ( 26,702 )
Seat 8: Vqiangsun ( 20,928 )
Blinds-Antes(2,000/4,000 -100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BLONDEFISH [ Ac As ]
Vjoezeta raises [8,000]
Vkralle574 folds
Your time bank will be activated in 6 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
What should you do?
NL Texas Hold'em $11 USD Buy-in
Blinds-Antes(2,000/4,000 -100) - Friday
Table $300K Gtd Sunday Qualifier Rebuy 15 Seats Gtd Table #2 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 7: VGrandioos ( 46,918 )
Seat 2: BLONDEFISH ( 18,808 )
Seat 5: VRugDoctor886 ( 8,256 )
Seat 4: VWinniPuuh ( 32,440 )
Seat 6: VjEpz_ ( 67,135 )
Seat 9: Vjoezeta ( 104,391 )
Seat 1: Vkralle574 ( 26,702 )
Seat 8: Vqiangsun ( 20,928 )
Blinds-Antes(2,000/4,000 -100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BLONDEFISH [ Ac As ]
Vjoezeta raises [8,000]
Vkralle574 folds
Your time bank will be activated in 6 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
What should you do?
Comments
And no, I haven't learned how to fold AA preflop yet..... Not sure I ever will..
OK, he edited it out... Obvious attempt to hide multi accounting.... Moose? lol..
This has got to be a test or something. Buddy, come one...what's the catch?
I guess if you're just playing to get a seat (top 15 get it, right? 16 players left?), then MAYBE post and fold, but I doubt very much if I would ever do it myself. A double up here ensures a seat most likely, and you can't get better than the hand you got to do that with.
but I might be a little biased since having my pocket A's cracked three times in my latest live tournament outing.
but really the chip leader is putting out a min raise here probably just trying to steal as he knows noone wants to bust out on the bubble, so I say PUSH ALL IN
So how bad was the suckout?
Shove...big stacks min raise is likely an attempt to get someone to shove so he can call with KK or QQ..AK..etc
Not sure why I am having to ask you (of all people..lmao..but I need to satisfy my curiousity)..but, what had he (big stack) been doing prior? buying lots or being a nit?
The seats are out of order but it looks like the small stack is the BB when you are the button. You control his fate.
2/3 an average stack to outlast those that are short and panic around bubble time I hear. Not a luxury you had.
Not a fan of folding AA preflop EVER if it isn't a sat on the immediate bubble with more than enough chips to watch it pop.
Looks like you had to do it here though, no doubt about it.
While I think this is very close to a fold, given the information provided, I would still opt for the all-in shove and pray here - knowing that the big stack raiser is certainly going to call you regardless of what he's holding.
If you shove all-in, it's extremely unlikely that anyone else will call or go over the top (and you're either tied with or crushing someone who goes over the top). Realistically, you only have to hope your As hold up against the original raiser's one random hand. If they do - you are virtually 100% guaranteed the ability to fold your way to the Sunday ticket.
If you fold, the blinds are going through you first before going through the short stack. The short stack has five hands to choose from (including this one) for his all-in shove. He could still find a half-way reasonable hand and it is not inconceivable for him to manage one double up. If he does, you are now the short stack and in huge trouble (along with the two at the other table).
There is some other info re: the exact layout of the other table that may play a small factor in my decision (ie. the position of the two small stacks to the blinds and to each other, is there a huge stack(s) who will definitely call when they shove), but all-in-all, I still think shoving is the right move here.
Seat 6: VjEpz_ ( 67,135 ) (Button)
Seat 7: VGrandioos ( 46,918 ) (SB 2000)
Seat 8: Vqiangsun ( 20,928 ) (BB 4000)
Seat 9: Vjoezeta ( 104,391 ) (raise to 8000)
Seat 1: Vkralle574 ( 26,702 ) (folds)
Seat 2: BLONDEFISH ( 18,808 )
seat 3: empty
Seat 4: VWinniPuuh ( 32,440 )
Seat 5: VRugDoctor886 ( 8,256 )
Blinds-Antes(2,000/4,000 -100)
This is not a cash game. This is not a tourney where the prizes increase as you increase up the ladder. It is a set amount of seats all worth exactly the same. 15th gets the same as 10th as does 1st. This makes it a special circumstance. You've gotten yourself to this point. One more bust out and every one gets a seat.
That being stated, I can think of three options:
A) If you are willing to post and fold until a) the short stack busts or b) doubles up than you can fold here. They have M=<1.5 so you know they have to move soon. If they do double up than you must be willing to open shove any two cards when the time is right. If this happens and you bust with 7-9o you must accept that fate.
3) If you are not willing to do that, then push for all the reasons LanterneRouge stated. But again, you need to accept when you get burned by 7-3o.
Under these particular circumstances I fold 100% of the time, coose option "a" as I stated above and wait for 'a better spot' (sounds counter-intuitive I know). I have ~0 chance that the original raiser is folding based on his/her stack size. I may be a giant favourite preflop but odds are odds and there are 5 cards to come. This is a semi regular occurance in sats on/near the bubble (Do I fold the best hand preflop to live another day when I know Im playing for all my chips if I call/push?).
Usually with these tournies when a short stack goes all in most people behind smooth call and check down the board. I'm not saying to encourage it or suggest it but it happens. With the short stack being 2BB, this is more likely to occur, esp. with others having such big stacks in relation. This adds value to a fold and looking at the stacks behind actually lessens the value of a push.
qiangsun is close enough in chips to me that I am not the only one feeling the heat at this table. You stated two others at the other table are about your chip stack so they are also looking for help. Also, as Moose stated, if all stacks remain relatively the same you are on the button when the short stack is on the BB. WinniPuuh will also be hesitant to call a SB push from you if its a battle of the blinds. This adds value to your position even with your chip stack.
The preflop min. raise messes up a beautiful thing. I fold quietly. I hope that this parlays me into a seat and I cash well.
Would it make a difference if it was a $110 sat. into the WSoP ME?
His cards don't matter at all. Either he has enough chips or he doesn't. If he does, he should fold.
yes, it would make a difference; its $11. If you lose, skip lunch and try again.
Maybe the other similarly short stacks double up while he is folding Aces preflop in order to fade one player.
I am just saying that I would rather control my own fate, especially with AA. You have the best hand at that moment, why not BE the "buster" instead of the "bustee" ( I make new words up, on the side . . .).
There are NO guarantees, PERIOD. If you have the best hand, why not play it for what it is? If I'm moving on, it's either going to be WITH my shield, or ON it.
When I ran the numbers for 9/10 places playing I get that you will move up in equity from 9.7% to 10.7% if you double up. So the odds you're getting is 9.7 to 1.
Since AA isn't more than an 8 to 1 vs crap hands like 27o you would fold , even if shown 72o..
If you extrapolate these results to the 15/16 place payout does it make it worse or better to fold?
Does anyone know of an ICM calculator that pay more than 10 places???
I dont like skipping meals
$xxxxxxx reg MTT with me on the bubble I push AA every day and thrice on Sundays. This one I fold.
You find it strange that someone would want to continue with their "A game" right to the end instead of throwing away a $215 prize on the bubble with (what they consider may have been) a "B game" move? I find that strange. After a couple hours of play and with only a hand or three to go, I'd want to make the most strategically-correct play every single time - even if the prize was $2.15.
So BlondeFish, what happened? Did you fold and get into short stack troubles or shove and get cracked by ... mmm, I'll guess 66 or K9o?
Somebody needs to use the search function for "folding Aces pre-flop" before getting snooty. It was a gag post, Redlight . . .
I know folding here is also considered appropriate considering its a satellite bubble, but I just don't think it should be done with AA.
But then again, I'm a donk, what do I know
no, I find it strange that someone who just played in a $10k US tournament would actually consider folding aces pre-flop in a $11US satellite.
There is nothing in either of JAH's posts in this thread that clearly indicated any sarcasm or joking to me (such as a
Either way, I don't see anything snooty about my response and, despite your overboard recommendation, I will not be doing a search of every past post before posting myself unless I see very specific reason to do so.
Try analyzing the situation for what it is, a decision in a tournament, and ignore what the monitary value it could lead to.
Does it mean if you were in the same situation at a $1K satellite bubble to a $10K WSOP ME seat, you will come to a different decision with how to play this hand compared to this where you are in a $11 satellite into a $215 tournament?
yes, my time is worth money. For a $215 prize, I would never fold AA pre-flop. If I happen to lose the hand, so be it. Would I push with 23off in a $0.50 tournament.... I will let you answer that one.
I do undersand your point; $0.50, $11.00 - meh, whatever. But if I enetered a sat. for whatever buy-in I would think I entered it to win a seat. If that is true, then I still am looking to win a seat.
The buy-in should not make a difference in this discussion. It is about MTT Strategy and "satellite near bubble optimal play" with all the conditions set for in the OP.
I'm wondering if some peoples opinions would differ if no monetary info was given by BlondeFish. I'm also wondering if this was the intended point of the post.