Folding AK pre flop? Insane move?
1 table sng. 6 player remain and I am very slightly the large stack.
I raise 3 BB after 1 caller in early position. The mid position goes all in with 2/3rds of my stack. The BB calls with 2/3rd of my stack.
I have never folded AK preflop before (although I am new to the game) I figured at best it was a coin toss and I was in good shape to make it all the way I am by no means a passive player (IMO) but I didn't like the feeling of this one. I would have called one all in.
Not that it matters but I would have won the hand and I took 2nd overall.
I raise 3 BB after 1 caller in early position. The mid position goes all in with 2/3rds of my stack. The BB calls with 2/3rd of my stack.
I have never folded AK preflop before (although I am new to the game) I figured at best it was a coin toss and I was in good shape to make it all the way I am by no means a passive player (IMO) but I didn't like the feeling of this one. I would have called one all in.
Not that it matters but I would have won the hand and I took 2nd overall.
Comments
But I am plenty good with a fold here..One all in, maybe, two ahead of you, nah, AK just isn't that good. Need QQ+ for me to call there for that many chips..(again read dependent)
When we bash the shit out of PokerJah, it's for the latter not the former.
Look at it another way, you "would" have won in this spot this time based on the result you stated, but more often than not, you're doubling somebody up in this spot.
Too bad you didn't post the hand history up here, it would make the analysis a little easier.
Congrats on the second place finish though.
PS - Any chance you COULD post the hand history on this one? I think all the others that responded before I did would love to see it as well.
+1.
Two unknowns that just shoved their stacks in...so we need to presume top 5%(from at least one of them), no?
I presume this is about 1/3rd of the way through the tournament with 6/9 or 10 left..so...still early/mid stage...and, did mention depending on reads..but from info given, to me this is still a fold...I want QQ+ here..
not sure what you mean by this comment.
Alright, lets assume the possibility of this. I punched into pokerstove (if youve never heard of this program, i strongly suggest downloading to anybody whos remotely interested in poker. it shows how hands perform against a range of hands that you give to opponents) and gave our hero AKs or AKo while giving both our opponents the worst possible range of hands for our hero...that is the top 4% AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo. Against that range, we have about 30% equity...33% being break even. If we assume that there is already a fair bit of dead money in the pot...mucking is clearly -EV.
Lets also assume that since this is your typical STT that is probably 3-4 levels in...a big stack is probably going to be only about 30 or so big blinds. So with one BB, one SB, one limper, our 3x raise...and a shover going to 20BB (2/3rds of our stack) and the other caller having 20BB... its going to cost us 17BB to get into a pot of 45.5BBs. Thats getting a 2.76 to 1 price to call when were probably just under a 2.33 to 1 dog in EV.
Once again, this is assuming the WORST CASE scenario for our opponents hands....if one of these guys is a remotely bad player...we can throw in AJ, smaller pairs...and sometimes even complete garbage into their ranges, making a call that much more profitable. Its not that far fetched given the quick nature of STTs that pressures ppl into playing hands (nevermind if its a turbo) Like I said, as a standard, without a read...against two unkowns...this is probably a shove...in my humble opinon.
Like I said in my example...even if I give them BOTH the top 4% its still a shove
In 2005 on sites like Partypoker, players were much worse than in 2009.
To get another poker perfect storm, we need another Cinderella donkey like Moneymaker to win the main event and another hockey strike. Plus the Americans trained not to think were plentiful, and could easily reload with Neteller.
I did that once with QQ and saw AA and KK turn over.
I certainly am not the most experienced here... but here's how I'd look at it.
Just looking at some possibilities...
AK vs AK vs lower pockets = 2.3% to win, 30% to tie (possible)
AK vs 2 lower pockets = 36% to win (possible)
AK vs AK vs AA = 1.3% to win 4.8% to tie (possible)
AK vs AQ vs JJ = 32% to win (possible)
AK vs KK vs AQ = 17.6% to win (possible)
AK vs AQ vs AJ = 46% to win (unlikely)
AK vs AQ vs AQ = 65% to win (unlikely)
So you are getting pot odds on just 2 of the 5 most likely scenarios.
I can justify folding here if I think these are tight players who have decent hands here. You could also consider the more unlikely hands as well and also consider you won't be leaving if you lose and shove.
As a rule you can't play scared... but there are times you can fold AK.
Definitely something to think about, well written. What I should have said in my last post was, I would probably fold, but there are times where I will shove as well. It all depends on my read of my opponents and my position.
I will try and find that application and give it a run. Still, this blog would be even better conversation if the person had posted the particulars of the Sit&Go they were playing in.
Ok look at the action, forgetting pokerstove and anything else that will give you stats, based on experience I can tell you right now BB COLD CALLING is QQ+, mid position shoving is Ax at least....
You can run pokerstove all you want but at the end of the day if you know exactly what hand ranges they are holding you can easily see you are in a bad position without doing the math. 2-1 calling odds is great when you are short stacked but when you are in a good chip position and the action is clearly transparent, why call?
If I am big stack I want to be shoving with AK not calling with it, in 80% of the situations I am in.
He might have raised 3bb, but have only 7bb behind. My chips are in there.
This might be a double or nothing sng. Fold here
This might be a low/micro stake sng. My chips are in there, as the caller's range is most likely a lot greater than 4%.
I understand this...im not sure what it means in regards to my post. Is this comment meant to say I dont understand the nature of games today?
While there are less scenarios where we win then lose, that isnt relevant without noticing the fact the pot is laying us almost 3 to 1 on our money. Yes were going to lose more then we win, but when we win, were going to make more then the times we lose.
See, the problem with your thought process is that we are holding one Ace and one King as blockers. So the actual probabilities of us being in a bad scenario is much less likely. Consider that there are only 6 possible combination of hands (3 combination of AA, 3 combinations of KK) that have us in trouble while there are about 5 times as many combos in good shape... 30 (6 combos of QQ, 6 combos of JJ, 6 combos of AK, 12 combos of AQ) So really, the favorable scenarios are way more likely then you think.
Thats what I was trying to point out...you dont know if their tight or not...they could be bad. Everybody just assumed they were tight and doled out advice from there. If this is a small stakes STT, odds are, one or neither of these players are tight but highly unlikely both and highly unlikely are they so tight that they only play the top 4%.
My point is you cant possibly know their ranges given they are unkowns. Doling out fold advice based on the fact you MIGHT be playing ridiculously tight or smart players doesnt make much sense. And ignoring the math of the stack sizes would be a pretty big mistake since it pretty much makes all the difference in the world when it comes to whether you should be in the pot or not.
I think everybody is getting the wrong impression of my post. Im NOT saying call/shove ALWAYS. Im saying, the way it is presented...we cant say GOOD FOLD. Because as a standard, folding AK shouldnt be the play. Especially without reads, stack sizes, what level it is in the STT, how much time left in this level, blind structure, without knowing if our hand is suited...etc etc.
Either way like you said we require further information to see in this specific reference AK is a correct fold or push.
Cheers!
Well...then Im saying over my years of experience and large sample size of BBs, unknowns in this situation wake up with all sorts of crap.
Im not trying to make light of your experience but the problem with that sort of comment is that it makes these discussions degenerate into a comparison of resumes and credentials. And that isnt a very effective way to talk poker strategy.
I punched the same things into pokerstove last night, and got the same results...30% best possibility...but, where I failed was accounting for the pot odds..I know..silly...so, I guess, yeah, without the reads, and them truly being "unknowns"..I can understand the call.
Appreciate all the quality input to this thread...it definitely makes me think harder. This is a situation I have been in myself...and the discussion here was valuable to me.
So you are effectively saying that BB's out of position call off their stacks light?
thanks, i just throw out my opinons when i think ive got something to offer.
I wouldnt say "Light" but definitely looser then the top 4%.
In my games BBs are most always OOP...
And if it was a blind vs. blind battle BB would be in position
LOL
In a cash game, its an easy fold for me (depending on the stacks pushing vs my stack). Did it a couple weeks ago on the very first hand facing QQ and KK, although I had $200 behind. If facing a short stack, I may re-raise to protect if it is my turn to decide after the all-in player or if I am the short stack, I would likely call. Against a short stack, I don't mind a race and I want to see all five cards.
I see players call off their entire stacks all the time with AK and personally I don't understand it. I have wiped out a few players recently with AK vs AA as they couldn't get away from AK. Personally, I think this hand is overvalued.
Case in point, in your situation, you raise, someone pushes, and someone else over-pushes... even on someone pushing / re-pushing light, what if someone had say AQ / AJ for the re-push, but the original all in guy had pocket pair.. normally this is a 50/50 situation, but if the other guy has an A, or even something like KQ, you're missing an out, reducing your 50/50 to a dog hand.
Of course, if the AQ dude has more cash, it's still a good play, but I found myself in this situation in a MTT a little while ago, I raise to 3x the BB, get a caller, and another tight(ish) player pushes. I'm now in the middle of a pusher and caller, figured the caller had an A, and would call (he was a bad player), so I folded and watched 99 win.
Mark