Maybe I'm putting too much emphasis on Caddy's comment that this opponent likes to check-raise. That, to me, implies that a bluff/semi-bluff is more likely than a hand that I'm currently beat by.
I let the opponent bluff now, and re-raise him....getting more of my money in while I believe I'm ahead.
Your first paragraph here is exactly in line with my thinking. this type of player would love to semi-bluff this type of board with any type of big draw. The problem is that if we get the money in on the flop where he has some type of combo draw or nut flush draw + a pair he has pretty fair equity.
If we get it in on the turn his equity has gone from being pretty good to pretty shitty. I would rather get my stack in when 4-1 than when I am 2-1.
can you get your/his stack in 4:1 and what relevance are the folds or losses when the turn heart or paired board happens? (sincere question/comment..not snarkiness)
Maybe and maybe not but I don't think that I am missing a huge opportunity on this board. If I win a small pot or lose a small pot on this board I can live with it and I don't think it effects my winrate in the long term.
and what relevance are the folds or losses when the turn heart or paired board happens?
I think that he leads a set on this board because I can check a ton of my range behind so am not going to lose sleep over the board pairing. I have 4bb in the pot so I can fold here easy if the turn is a heart and he leads. If he checks I am taking a stab.
but aren't we back to El's plan being more profitable, esp since you're prepared to get it in on a non heart turn? I don't think you're 'wrong' nec. , or that your decisions are not profitable, I just think hers might be more so.
all of this is off the top of my undercaffeinated head. prove or disprove?
Since all the focus thus far has been pushing bigger edges vs. hearts on turn (losing small pots when 4th heart hits, and punishing draws with only one card to come)...what happens when he doesn't have a heart?
Ie:
a) How often is this opponent to steal the pot from us on a heart turn?
b) How often is the opponent to value bet/bluff weak non-heart hands on blank turns?
Assuming he would fold most of these hands to the flop bet (save decent queens), are we likely to extract more value from these hands by inducing bluffs/weak value bets? Or give up too much by occaisionally conceding the pot to utter trash?
I'm guessing b) probably outweighs a) for this opponent but I have no numbers to back that up...
I fire out a flop bet in the range of $4-6 (half to 2/3rd pot). This will like much like a standard cont bet and villian is known to get aggressive with CR's on flop.
He can easily make this play with a hand like TP, pair + flush draw, or simply some type of combo draw (flush + str, overs and flush dr etc.).
How we respond is more difficult. Reraising isn't out of the question, although now we are getting into heavy committment with a hand we have no redraws with (ie. our equity is decent, but not a monster vs. a lot of hands containing a heart). A more conservative line may be to flat call the CR and be prepared to make a bigger raise on the turn provided a heart doesn't come off.
Checking behind will almost always induce villian to make some type of bluff if he has no hand, or a semi-bluff/value bet with either a draw or a weaker made hand. I just hate giving naked hearts free cards, on that flop, although since we're pretty much folding to any heart turn anyways, this has the benefit of keeping the pot small.
b) How often is the opponent to value bet/bluff weak non-heart hands on blank turns?
I think we can get this opponent to bluff lots and we can get him to value bet a ton of hands that we are ahead. We are very well disguised on the turn here.
i'm not convinced the check followed by a raise on the turn maximizes ev of your hand.
anyone interested in exploring this further?
it all starts with what range he just calls the PF raise. can we assume somewhere between 10-15% of his hands? or is it more?
then which ones he leads with, check/folds, check/calls and check/raises on this flop.
finally compare that, after we check behind the flop, to the ones he bet/folds or bet/calls or bet/pushes. this would give us a concrete idea of the ev of checking behind on the flop vs betting (and not folding to the xx% likely check/raise)
it would take a bit of work but it might be worth the effort.
it all starts with what range he just calls the PF raise. can we assume somewhere between 10-15% of his hands? or is it more?
then which ones he leads with, check/folds, check/calls and check/raises on this flop.
finally compare that, after we check behind the flop, to the ones he bet/folds or bet/calls or bet/pushes. this would give us a concrete idea of the ev of checking behind on the flop vs betting (and not folding to the xx% likely check/raise)
it would take a bit of work but it might be worth the effort.
I'd love to look at this further... we just need to nail down some details...
a) his calling range... say 22-77 (OP says he's seen him 3-bet 88+), suited broadway cards, excluding AKs... I don't know about adding any more...
b) his bluff % for... 1) c/r with air... 2) c/r with heart draw... 3) c/r when he's ahead.
c) His ability to get away from a draw if/when we push...
We can compare 3 scenarios...
1) checking behind on the flop... then raising when he bets the turn
2) betting the flop... and pushing to a c/r here.
3) betting the flop... calling a c/r and then raise/push a safe turn.
Comments
Pretty sure something similar would be in PokerOffice and the various other ones...
Mark
Your first paragraph here is exactly in line with my thinking. this type of player would love to semi-bluff this type of board with any type of big draw. The problem is that if we get the money in on the flop where he has some type of combo draw or nut flush draw + a pair he has pretty fair equity.
If we get it in on the turn his equity has gone from being pretty good to pretty shitty. I would rather get my stack in when 4-1 than when I am 2-1.
Edit: DAMMIT! I was doing sooo good!
Maybe and maybe not but I don't think that I am missing a huge opportunity on this board. If I win a small pot or lose a small pot on this board I can live with it and I don't think it effects my winrate in the long term.
I think that he leads a set on this board because I can check a ton of my range behind so am not going to lose sleep over the board pairing. I have 4bb in the pot so I can fold here easy if the turn is a heart and he leads. If he checks I am taking a stab.
all of this is off the top of my undercaffeinated head. prove or disprove?
edit: TWOFER!
Ie:
a) How often is this opponent to steal the pot from us on a heart turn?
b) How often is the opponent to value bet/bluff weak non-heart hands on blank turns?
Assuming he would fold most of these hands to the flop bet (save decent queens), are we likely to extract more value from these hands by inducing bluffs/weak value bets? Or give up too much by occaisionally conceding the pot to utter trash?
I'm guessing b) probably outweighs a) for this opponent but I have no numbers to back that up...
Not much IMO. Look back at my play on the turn.
I think we can get this opponent to bluff lots and we can get him to value bet a ton of hands that we are ahead. We are very well disguised on the turn here.
it all starts with what range he just calls the PF raise. can we assume somewhere between 10-15% of his hands? or is it more?
then which ones he leads with, check/folds, check/calls and check/raises on this flop.
finally compare that, after we check behind the flop, to the ones he bet/folds or bet/calls or bet/pushes. this would give us a concrete idea of the ev of checking behind on the flop vs betting (and not folding to the xx% likely check/raise)
it would take a bit of work but it might be worth the effort.
I'd love to look at this further... we just need to nail down some details...
a) his calling range... say 22-77 (OP says he's seen him 3-bet 88+), suited broadway cards, excluding AKs... I don't know about adding any more...
b) his bluff % for... 1) c/r with air... 2) c/r with heart draw... 3) c/r when he's ahead.
c) His ability to get away from a draw if/when we push...
We can compare 3 scenarios...
1) checking behind on the flop... then raising when he bets the turn
2) betting the flop... and pushing to a c/r here.
3) betting the flop... calling a c/r and then raise/push a safe turn.
Thoughts?