$4 pre-flop is pretty damn standard. I dunno why so many of the PM's were concerned with a 4BB pre flop raise. My guess is that you are tourney players and are not used to playing 100BB deep or more.
So Q 8 5 all hearts hits the flop and our opponent checks.
I know he likes to 3 bet his medium pairs from the blinds and he would 3 bet QQ like always. That is the advantage of 3 betting medium pairs, people start to think you are full of shit because of your 3 bet frequency and then you get paid off when you have a premium hand.
I think AQ, AK 3 bets here too so I discount that.
Now 9T or JT are smack in the middle of his calling range as are AJ and AT.
If he has 9T or JT especially if he has a heart or a big draw like A or K or hearts with an offsuit X, I can see him willing to get his stack in the middle on the flop at any point where he feels he has fold equity.
Betting here can far too often lead me to folding the best hand against an opponent this aggressive. If I check behind I can under rep my hand and often win a nice medium sized pot (he is aggro and will likely lead turn with any pair or draw) or if he has a big drawing type hand and is horny to get his stack in the middle I saw his equity in half by waiting until the turn to re-open the action.
Turn action:
He leads for the pot and I am going to raise to about $35 and fist pump call a shove.
$4 preflop is pretty standard but ...
I don't like the $4 preflop bet size because it makes a bad stack to pot ratio that isn't good for top pair/overpair hands like this one.
What range does the villain have preflop?
Mid to low pair, Aces, two high cards, Suited connectors down to 76s.
What is your action? cbet
What is your bet size? 3/5 or 1/2 pot
What is your plan? i will raise the c/r, and fold to a push. thurs small cbet size.
Villains Range is? two face card, any suited connector. it's hard to tell without knowning his BB defend %
Not sure why you raised to $4 pre-flop with the best starting hand? Only looking for trouble. I likely go $10-$15 depending what has been standard at the table.
What is your action? Raise on flop to see where you stand.
What is your bet size? pot in case of flush draw, straight draw.
What is your plan? if lots of resistance, get away from the hand. If calls pot raise, and no dangerous card on the turn, likely bet $20 and if called the $20, slow way down on the river. If villian comes out with a decent raise on the turn, likely get away from the hand.
Villains Range is? with this small pre-flop raise, could be anything. suited connectors, pair, A+, K+.
Pot is $8.50. Live I bet $5.75. Online I bet $6.00 because the slider goes by $1 increments.
I flat a raise and re-evaluate on the turn, most likely putting him on a piece and the flush draw. On a non-heart non Q/8 turn card I bet 3/4 pot again. Anything remotely scary I check behind on the turn to control pot size.
If villain just calls my flop bet I put him on any pair or possibly flush draw. But if he bets out on a non-scary turn I put him on a slow-played bigger hand than that and fold unimproved. If he checks again I bet 3/4 pot again. Another call from him and I'm checking it down.
I would check the flop. Reaon being that your aces cannot stand a check-raise, which you indicate is a preference of this villain.
My plan is bet the turn if any non-heart falls, say for $5.00 - $6.00. Ace of diamonds and I bet the pot.
If he bets a 4th heart on the turn, I'm done. If the board pairs I'm willing to check it down. I feel the Aces have become a small hand with this flop, and so they are deserving of a small ball strategy.
His range: He did not try a re-steal, and you indicate tightness out of the blinds. So lets try this
AA - JJ, any lower pairs would, I think, bring a resteal attempt.
AKs down to AJs would fit a call, as would
AKo down to AQo
This has probably just solidified my donk status but, what the hell, lets see how close I get to the truth, right?
first of all, what is you image in HIS eyes? i'm assuming tight aggressive. so he's expecting you to have a decent hand most of the time but you could also be making a play from the button. he also expects you to continuation bet on the flop. and he expects you are unlikely to lay down an overpair?
his calling range PF would be something like: 22+, A7s+, A9o+, K9s+, KTo+, QTs+, QJ, J9s+, JTo, maybe a few lower connectors suited or not. note: he is unlikely to have the higher end of this range since he didn't 3-bet, so he is unlikely to 88+ or any big ace here.
what could he have here that is beating you now? flush of course, maybe 55, 2 Page Ranking is very unlikely. so i have to conclude you are ahead at least 75% of the time. if you are behind, i don't think you are deep enough to get away from this so you are going to get your stack in one way or another.
assuming you are ahead, how many outs does he have? is giving a free card in your best interest? at best he hit a single pair (most likely the Q) or a flush draw. so he might have somewhere between 5 and 8 outs. i suppose he could have a pair and flush draw which could give him as many as 13 outs (and i suppose be nearly 50% against your hand.) so he has somewhere between 2 and 13 outs if you are ahead. i don't like giving a free card here. so bet at least 3/4 of the pot, all the way up to full pot, depending on past behaviour.
what if you get CRd? well, he'd do that with a flush (likely a weak one, prob leads with it though), set (maybe although maybe he leads with that?), TPGK, definitely with pair and flush draw, possible with flush draw.
your stack size is awkward compared to the pot so if you do get check-raised, it makes things much more complicated. he is unlikely to stack off with a hand much worse than yours (might with a pair + fd but like i said, that is pretty much 50/50).
he is aggressive and has a tendency to CR, you are ahead of his range so i can't see folding here. since he's likely to call your push to his CR with a strong draw, i think your best bet is to smooth call the CR and get it in on a non-heart turn. this means you are giving him a chance to hit his draw but since he's calling anyway, it may save you a bit of cash if he does hit on the turn.
so that is a long-winded way of saying: bet something close to pot on the flop, call any CR and get it in on a non-heart turn. and maybe 25% of the time you get stacked.
I bet like 6.50 on the flop. I would say villains calling range preflop is small/mid pairs and suited connectors... maybe a hand like AT or suited aces are in there too. There arent many draws he could have on the flop so a check raise is either a flush, a set or air. You say he likes to c/r flops so i would say air makes up a larger portion of his range then most players. If he does c/r I would call and see what he does on the turn.
Here's my take (I don't know all the stats provided...I don't use poker tracker)
What is your action? Bet.
What is your bet size? Size of the pot.
What is your plan? Based on your info that villian likes to checkraise, I plan to re-raise should that happen. The size of the reraise is dependent on the size of the check raise. Should villian just call, my turn action will depend on if the 4th heart comes.
Villains Range is? You stated that villian was tightish out of the blinds - since he called the bet, he must have something playable (i.e. not just random garbage). I'd say two high cards (but not super high, since an aggresive player would have reraised you preflop), a medium pocket pair, or suited connectors. The only scenario I'd be very afraid of here is the last, in hearts. I don't like playing very scared just because there are three hearts out there. If he's got two high cards, one of which is a heart - make him make the decision of playing for his stack on a draw.
The monotone board isn't what I wanted to see, but I wouldn't worry too much about a made flush. I'm more worried about the draw, so I'll be betting the pot (or slightly more, maybe $10) here to deny him odds. If he check raises me (given his tendancy) and
a) the reraise amount commits him to the pot or moves AI; I'll let it go. b) leaves himself room to fold with a reraise to something like $30-40; I'm not going to give him credit for the made flush (too unlikely) or a set (since he'd probably 3bet PF). Rather, I'd put him a top pair and/or a big heart (A or K but not AK) in which case I'm shoving.
If he calls and then
a) he checks the turn; I'll fire a second bullet 2/3 to 3/4 of the pot as long as the turn didn't bring a K,Q, or heart. If it did I'll check behind and try to show it down to the river b) he leads out on the turn; I'll min raise and fold to reraise.
If he just calls and then
a) checks the turn; I'll check behind, regardless of what comes. b) he leads out with anything pot size or less, I'll make the crying call. Otherwise, I'll fold.
BTW: Did I mention that I suck? If I didn't, now you know.
i'm going to throw out a continuation bet here. if he has the hearts and slow playing, this bet will let me know where i am. if he has nothing he'll most likely fold it, but i don't want to wait for another possible heart because that means i'm easily dead or it will kill my action anyway.
action: bet
bet size: $5
plan: see above
villian range: 22-66; J10+ (minus AK, AQ, AJ)
Plan: will call small raise... Will pray for no more hearts!
villian range: currently very wide... Will narrow when we see further action. Likely high suited connectors or low pockets.
Pot's currently $8.50. On that flop, I want to know where I stand ASAP, I bet out a bigger bet, 3/4 - full pot bet. I think $6 seems about right here.
As for my plan, I'm not in love with my hand if I get much play back at me. If villain calls, and then checks the turn, I likely check it behind him regardless of the card, and then hopefully call a modest bet (with the pot at $20.50), probably upwards of $10 on the river, or check behind.
If I get re-raised, I'm curious as to the amount - a min raise gets called, but probably call anything up to $12 on top just to see the turn / what he does. If he bets again turn, I'm going to give up on the hand, if he checks, I check a scary card and bet a blank. Same river play likely as above in this scenario.
Okay the board pairs on the turn, still a small pot hand for my Aces. Villain comes out firing a pot sized bet. Your indication of tightness out of the blinds leads me to think he's got AhQ?, or he made his flush on the flop and is trying to get something out of it after missing a chance on the flop. You've indicated strength PF and he probably does not think you have the flush, especially if he DOES.
I think you're ahead, and I'd raise $25.00. The reason is that if he has the Ace of Hearts you do not want to let him draw cheap, obv.
as played flop bet = $5ish most of the time..I'm giving this guy no credit at all unless something crazy drops.
turn as played, fold. I don't think calling the turn is a big mistake and I do it a reasonable % of the time, I just don't like that you'll be facing another big bet on the river... and you're not beating much that makes sense.. so it is not my preferred play by a very small margin.
I'd rather have invested less of my chips betting the flop than more calling the turn. This could have been a smaller pot with a clearer picture.
Betting here can far too often lead me to folding the best hand against an opponent this aggressive. If I check behind I can under rep my hand and often win a nice medium sized pot (he is aggro and will likely lead turn with any pair or draw) or if he has a big drawing type hand and is horny to get his stack in the middle I saw his equity in half by waiting until the turn to re-open the action.
Turn action:
He leads for the pot and I am going to raise to about $35 and fist pump call a shove.
wow, you were the only one who got this right. wader came pretty close though...
nh
Actually, it's at it's most interesting right now. The point now is to compare and contrast the various responses.
Do you pay someone to explain the world to you? "Who dresses you in the morning" ?
wow...ah...sorry for voicing my opinion? guess that's not allowed.
but anyway, in reference to the actual thread:
what are we supposed to do now exactly? comment on other people's comments? should i be changing the way i played the hand now that i know how the hand has played out? (i would think not). maybe at best someone's comments could be labeled as "better" than others', but that's not necessarily the comment that was closest to "correct" for the given hand.
i really don't get the point of this thread. i was excited about the idea as well, but now i'm questioning where it's going. sorry if some take offense to that.
A bunch of poker players sitting around discussing hands that have occurred... a civil discourse ensues and allows them to see the hand from differing POV's... There is sooooo much going on in any given hand that NOBODY considers everything.... Some people will mention pot control / odds / position / image / etc etc etc.... but only the BEST players remember to consider ALL of these things.
Someone mentioning a different approach because of a different reason should force you think about that next time you're in a similar spot, making you a better player.
Mark
P.S. In short, this thread is the ENTIRE POINT of internet forums.... . thank you to BBC for the suggestion, and to cadillac for starting it.
A bunch of poker players sitting around discussing hands that have occurred... a civil discourse ensues and allows them to see the hand from differing POV's... There is sooooo much going on in any given hand that NOBODY considers everything.... Some people will mention pot control / odds / position / image / etc etc etc.... but only the BEST players remember to consider ALL of these things.
Someone mentioning a different approach because of a different reason should force you think about that next time you're in a similar spot, making you a better player.
Mark
P.S. In short, this thread is the ENTIRE POINT of internet forums.... . thank you to BBC for the suggestion, and to cadillac for starting it.
I like the fact that there were tons of different ideas and approaches to the hand and the plan that people had for the hand. The whole idea is that usually when we discuss a hand there are a few differing opinions and then a flood of people jumping on one of the band wagons. This way people had to actually go out on a limb and stand on their own two feet
I dunno if my approach on the hand is the best or not. There are certainly different ways to go about playing it and I hope that we can discuss it as a group and define what is 'standard'.
As well maybe we can kill the cat fight in this thread. Maybe there is some other off topic thread that can get filled up with a bunch of "fuck you!" "Noooo, fuck you!"
Here is something about this I would like to discuss:
Almost everyone wanted to include pretty much any suited connector in our villains range here. I think I tend to discount those types of hands against typical TAGs in the blinds unless really deep because of how difficult those hands play OOP.
You flop the nizzles with these hands very seldom. Usually the best you can hope for is to flop a draw and they will be costly to play OOP against the pre-flop aggressor who is going to bet the flop pretty much always. You can get paid nice when you draw and hit your straights but most people won't pay you off when the flush comes anyway so your implied odds are just not there.
He is 20/17 pre-flop. His Attempt to steal is 63% and he is tightish out of the blinds. His total aggression is 3.2. WTSD% 27 and W$SD 52%
20/17 - 20 is the number of hands/100 VPIP (Voluntarily Put $ In Pot) that he calls or raises with pre-flop. 17 is the number of hands/100 that he raises with pre-flop PFR (Pre Flop Raise). So basically in pre-flop situations he folds 80% of the time, 17% of the time he raises and 3% he limps or flat calls a raise.
He is Tight-AGGRO pre-flop.
Attempt to steal 63% - This means that from the steal positions, cut off, button or SB he will open the pot 63% of the time when it is folded to him.
He understands position and is opening a wider range from position.
Total Aggression is 3.2 This means that he will bet or raise 3.2 times for every time he calls.
He is AGGRO not Passive
WTSD% 27 - This means that he goes to showdown 27% of the time when he pays to see the flop.
He is pretty middle of the road as far as showing down hands. Maybe a little bit high but he clearly understands hand values and is likely not calling real thin bets on the river without a good reason.
W$SD 52% - This means that 52% of the time that he goes to showdown he wins $$$$.
Almost everyone wanted to include pretty much any suited connector in our villains range here. I think I tend to discount those types of hands against typical TAGs in the blinds unless really deep because of how difficult those hands play OOP.
so, to look at this a different way, what percentage of hands should he defend with? if he's only defending with JJ+, AQ+ then he is going to get run over in the blinds. in other words, if not suited connectors, what other hands would be good candidates?
also, i go back to your image at the table (which you did not discuss). what is your steal %? if he thinks you are full of shit, he should be playing a lot of hands, prob raising back with a lot of them too.
also, suited connectors play fine against some opponents, especially those that can't give someone credit for beating their AA...
20/17 - 20 is the number of hands/100 VPIP (Voluntarily Put $ In Pot) that he calls or raises with pre-flop. 17 is the number of hands/100 that he raises with pre-flop PFR (Pre Flop Raise). So basically in pre-flop situations he folds 80% of the time, 17% of the time he raises and 3% he limps or flat calls a raise.
Slightly off-topic. Do you find most players have these stats (or close to them) at 100NL?
Here is something about this I would like to discuss:
Almost everyone wanted to include pretty much any suited connector in our villains range here. I think I tend to discount those types of hands against typical TAGs in the blinds unless really deep because of how difficult those hands play OOP.
You flop the nizzles with these hands very seldom. Usually the best you can hope for is to flop a draw and they will be costly to play OOP against the pre-flop aggressor who is going to bet the flop pretty much always. You can get paid nice when you draw and hit your straights but most people won't pay you off when the flush comes anyway so your implied odds are just not there.
Thoughts?
I don't think there is much difference in playing JTs and 56s OOP.
From a simple equity comparison: let's say you open raise from the button with any top 10% hand... {88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo}
JTs has 35% equity and 56s has 34%... not too much difference there, I don't see it being any harder to play the small suited connectors compared to the bigger ones.
Now what I find interesting is that most people bet the flop. You make a interesting (not ready to say valid... yet) argument for checking, but you're definitely ahead of any range here... You're worrying about the check-raise too much here in my opinion. He can't c/r with air here... (i believe that's clearly spewing chips long-term) so he needs at least a piece... and he can't raise too much, so as to pot-commit himself... so I feel you can safely call a small c/r here.... hoping for a blank turn.
On a blank turn... and the majority of cards will be blanks... is he going to feel secure enough to bet out? On a blank turn... he's got no fold equity... and you get checked to here a lot.
Pkrfce - With such a small gap between his VPIP and PFR (20-17=3%) I think he is 3 betting any pair over 88 and flating pairs less than 77 looking to set mine, ATs and AJ I think he may call and AQ+ he 3 bets, JTs and T9s are hands that I think a lot of players over value at this level and I think it makes up part of his range as well.
My image is likely TAGGY to this guy. I abuse position until people really play back at me a lot and steal in the 65% range when the blinds will allow it.
Most people I find will start to 3 bet a bit light if you get too carried away with stealing but they aren't willing to stack off light when they try and play back.
What I mean by that is that I make a ton of money by calling 3 bets made by the blinds when I have opened on the button, calling the c-bet on the flop and taking away the pot when they check the turn.
Mickey - I see what you are saying about the equity being close with these SC types of hands but that it is really only relevant when the hand makes it to show down isn't it? When you are OOP with this type is it not really a reverse implied odds type of situation? You will lose big pots and win small ones right?
As far as the check/raise on the flop of the hand we are discussing he can check raise air here too IMO. As well he can check raise both made hands and big draws. Since I still crush his range but I am flipping against any big draws he may have I like the check behind on the flop because of how I kill his equity by taking a street away from him to draw to.
You say he has no fold equity on a blank turn and I agree but he doesn't know my hand and he may over-estimate his fold equity here. Alot of the big exploitable mistakes made by competent players are made on the turn. I think a lot of so-so players who flop a big draw in this spot will be pissing their pants to get the money in and even if they miss their opportunity on the flop they will still take it on the turn when they are like 4-1 instead of flipping. Just look at the hand Chriswinsor posted recently if you don't believe me. Some people are still thinking about the flop when they are stacking off on the turn.
What hand would call this flop but fold this turn? He can't think the 8 helped me....
Thinking more about this hand checking behind on the flop might actually be best because of the fact that this player is likely to check raise... against an unknown though i would bet the flop and call a check raise and likely fold to a turn bet since I don't think he bluffs many hands on the turn. If you check behind the flop you have to call the turn bet... raising is really bad.
Also the point about calling out of the blinds with suited connectors is a good one. I dont think calling a raise from a competent player who opens in late position with a suited connector is a winning play and I think is a mistake a lot of regulars make. We still need to include suited connectors in the opponents range unless we have reason to do otherwise (ie we have seen him 3 bet with them from the blinds)
I'm probably out of my depth here, but that's never stopped me from splashing around before, so why start now.
I check behind on the flop for two reasons. I'm nitty enough that I do not want to risk a C/R and, if I am ahead (likely), Villain will STILL have little idea of the strength of my holding. Thus, when he bets the paired turn, I feel MY C/R is more likely to be called, getting me more of a pay-off.
As for the suited connectors OOP from the Blinds, I would also discount this as more of a "mixing up my play" kind of move. But that is probably why you would all win $$$ off of me in the short, medium, and long term. I enjoyed this thread very much. I think I have learned a couple of things beyond how much I need to think about this game.
That's exactly why I would bet. Don't you want him to check raise you when you have what is likely the best hand?
Get him to commit more chips with an inferior hand....
He is check raising pretty much all hands that beat AA here as well as some bluffs/semi bluffs so getting check raised isn't something that we want since it will put us in a difficult spot on the turn. Checking behind controls the size of the pot and gives our opponent a chance to bluff at the pot. We don't want to play a big pot on this flop and checking behind still gives our opponent a chance to bluff at it in a spot that we won't be folding and allows us to lose much less when we don't have the best hand.
He is check raising pretty much all hands that beat AA here as well as some bluffs/semi bluffs so getting check raised isn't something that we want since it will put us in a difficult spot on the turn.
Yes, but how many of those hands are there (that beat AA) right now, as opposed to hands that have the potential to beat AA on the turn/river.
Maybe I'm putting too much emphasis on Caddy's comment that this opponent likes to check-raise. That, to me, implies that a bluff/semi-bluff is more likely than a hand that I'm currently beat by.
I let the opponent bluff now, and re-raise him....getting more of my money in while I believe I'm ahead.
Yes, but how many of those hands are there (that beat AA) right now, as opposed to hands that have the potential to beat AA on the turn/river.
Maybe I'm putting too much emphasis on Caddy's comment that this opponent likes to check-raise. That, to me, implies that a bluff/semi-bluff is more likely than a hand that I'm currently beat by.
I let the opponent bluff now, and re-raise him....getting more of my money in while I believe I'm ahead.
Yes, but how many of those hands are there (that beat AA) right now, as opposed to hands that have the potential to beat AA on the turn/river.
Maybe I'm putting too much emphasis on Caddy's comment that this opponent likes to check-raise. That, to me, implies that a bluff/semi-bluff is more likely than a hand that I'm currently beat by.
I let the opponent bluff now, and re-raise him....getting more of my money in while I believe I'm ahead.
Well i don't think that there are many hands that will have many outs against us that he check raises... if he had say 77 with a heart or 87 with a heart i dont think he is check raising. Basically he is check raising a pure bluff, a set/flush or KQ/QJ with a heart type hand. I guess he could have just the ace of hearts but i dont think there are many Axo hands in his calling range preflop. So by betting and shoving over a check raise we are never folding out a hand that has us beat, getting all his bluffs to fold and getting it in against KQ/QJ with a heart type hands which is pretty close to a 50/50 if im not mistaken. So shoving over the check raise is basically turning your hand into a bluff.
If we play a big pot with AA on this board we are very often crushed so we need to play pot control... yes we have the best hand a lot of the time on the flop but the hands that will give us action either crush us or are flipping against us.
i'd love to see some analysis with real $$$ (a la blondefish...) showing whether a check or a bet (to induce a likely CR) is more profitable. it would take a bit of work to establish your opponent's range and likely actions and reactions.
i'm not convinced the check followed by a raise on the turn maximizes ev of your hand.
Sorry, but I'm off to our friendly neighbourhood casino with some KY Jelly to kiss my $460 satellite chips goodbye and say, "See you in hell, b*tches."
Comments
$4 pre-flop is pretty damn standard. I dunno why so many of the PM's were concerned with a 4BB pre flop raise. My guess is that you are tourney players and are not used to playing 100BB deep or more.
So Q 8 5 all hearts hits the flop and our opponent checks.
I know he likes to 3 bet his medium pairs from the blinds and he would 3 bet QQ like always. That is the advantage of 3 betting medium pairs, people start to think you are full of shit because of your 3 bet frequency and then you get paid off when you have a premium hand.
I think AQ, AK 3 bets here too so I discount that.
Now 9T or JT are smack in the middle of his calling range as are AJ and AT.
If he has 9T or JT especially if he has a heart or a big draw like A or K or hearts with an offsuit X, I can see him willing to get his stack in the middle on the flop at any point where he feels he has fold equity.
Betting here can far too often lead me to folding the best hand against an opponent this aggressive. If I check behind I can under rep my hand and often win a nice medium sized pot (he is aggro and will likely lead turn with any pair or draw) or if he has a big drawing type hand and is horny to get his stack in the middle I saw his equity in half by waiting until the turn to re-open the action.
Turn action:
He leads for the pot and I am going to raise to about $35 and fist pump call a shove.
All right. Here are all the PM's I got.
nh
btw, this thread got boring fast. i was actually looking forward to it originally.
Actually, it's at it's most interesting right now. The point now is to compare and contrast the various responses.
Do you pay someone to explain the world to you? "Who dresses you in the morning" ?
Any thing to add? Or are we just taking today?
wow...ah...sorry for voicing my opinion? guess that's not allowed.
but anyway, in reference to the actual thread:
what are we supposed to do now exactly? comment on other people's comments? should i be changing the way i played the hand now that i know how the hand has played out? (i would think not). maybe at best someone's comments could be labeled as "better" than others', but that's not necessarily the comment that was closest to "correct" for the given hand.
i really don't get the point of this thread. i was excited about the idea as well, but now i'm questioning where it's going. sorry if some take offense to that.
A bunch of poker players sitting around discussing hands that have occurred... a civil discourse ensues and allows them to see the hand from differing POV's... There is sooooo much going on in any given hand that NOBODY considers everything.... Some people will mention pot control / odds / position / image / etc etc etc.... but only the BEST players remember to consider ALL of these things.
Someone mentioning a different approach because of a different reason should force you think about that next time you're in a similar spot, making you a better player.
Mark
P.S. In short, this thread is the ENTIRE POINT of internet forums.... . thank you to BBC for the suggestion, and to cadillac for starting it.
It's tough maintaining this image.
...so the thread is done then?
I like the fact that there were tons of different ideas and approaches to the hand and the plan that people had for the hand. The whole idea is that usually when we discuss a hand there are a few differing opinions and then a flood of people jumping on one of the band wagons. This way people had to actually go out on a limb and stand on their own two feet
I dunno if my approach on the hand is the best or not. There are certainly different ways to go about playing it and I hope that we can discuss it as a group and define what is 'standard'.
As well maybe we can kill the cat fight in this thread. Maybe there is some other off topic thread that can get filled up with a bunch of "fuck you!" "Noooo, fuck you!"
Only if you have no interest in improving your game whatsoever.
Mark
Almost everyone wanted to include pretty much any suited connector in our villains range here. I think I tend to discount those types of hands against typical TAGs in the blinds unless really deep because of how difficult those hands play OOP.
You flop the nizzles with these hands very seldom. Usually the best you can hope for is to flop a draw and they will be costly to play OOP against the pre-flop aggressor who is going to bet the flop pretty much always. You can get paid nice when you draw and hit your straights but most people won't pay you off when the flush comes anyway so your implied odds are just not there.
Thoughts?
20/17 - 20 is the number of hands/100 VPIP (Voluntarily Put $ In Pot) that he calls or raises with pre-flop. 17 is the number of hands/100 that he raises with pre-flop PFR (Pre Flop Raise). So basically in pre-flop situations he folds 80% of the time, 17% of the time he raises and 3% he limps or flat calls a raise.
He is Tight-AGGRO pre-flop.
Attempt to steal 63% - This means that from the steal positions, cut off, button or SB he will open the pot 63% of the time when it is folded to him.
He understands position and is opening a wider range from position.
Total Aggression is 3.2 This means that he will bet or raise 3.2 times for every time he calls.
He is AGGRO not Passive
WTSD% 27 - This means that he goes to showdown 27% of the time when he pays to see the flop.
He is pretty middle of the road as far as showing down hands. Maybe a little bit high but he clearly understands hand values and is likely not calling real thin bets on the river without a good reason.
W$SD 52% - This means that 52% of the time that he goes to showdown he wins $$$$.
also, i go back to your image at the table (which you did not discuss). what is your steal %? if he thinks you are full of shit, he should be playing a lot of hands, prob raising back with a lot of them too.
also, suited connectors play fine against some opponents, especially those that can't give someone credit for beating their AA...
kudos to all those who contributed to this thread
Slightly off-topic. Do you find most players have these stats (or close to them) at 100NL?
I don't think there is much difference in playing JTs and 56s OOP.
From a simple equity comparison: let's say you open raise from the button with any top 10% hand... {88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo}
JTs has 35% equity and 56s has 34%... not too much difference there, I don't see it being any harder to play the small suited connectors compared to the bigger ones.
Now what I find interesting is that most people bet the flop. You make a interesting (not ready to say valid... yet) argument for checking, but you're definitely ahead of any range here... You're worrying about the check-raise too much here in my opinion. He can't c/r with air here... (i believe that's clearly spewing chips long-term) so he needs at least a piece... and he can't raise too much, so as to pot-commit himself... so I feel you can safely call a small c/r here.... hoping for a blank turn.
On a blank turn... and the majority of cards will be blanks... is he going to feel secure enough to bet out? On a blank turn... he's got no fold equity... and you get checked to here a lot.
Thoughts?
My image is likely TAGGY to this guy. I abuse position until people really play back at me a lot and steal in the 65% range when the blinds will allow it.
Most people I find will start to 3 bet a bit light if you get too carried away with stealing but they aren't willing to stack off light when they try and play back.
What I mean by that is that I make a ton of money by calling 3 bets made by the blinds when I have opened on the button, calling the c-bet on the flop and taking away the pot when they check the turn.
Mickey - I see what you are saying about the equity being close with these SC types of hands but that it is really only relevant when the hand makes it to show down isn't it? When you are OOP with this type is it not really a reverse implied odds type of situation? You will lose big pots and win small ones right?
As far as the check/raise on the flop of the hand we are discussing he can check raise air here too IMO. As well he can check raise both made hands and big draws. Since I still crush his range but I am flipping against any big draws he may have I like the check behind on the flop because of how I kill his equity by taking a street away from him to draw to.
You say he has no fold equity on a blank turn and I agree but he doesn't know my hand and he may over-estimate his fold equity here. Alot of the big exploitable mistakes made by competent players are made on the turn. I think a lot of so-so players who flop a big draw in this spot will be pissing their pants to get the money in and even if they miss their opportunity on the flop they will still take it on the turn when they are like 4-1 instead of flipping. Just look at the hand Chriswinsor posted recently if you don't believe me. Some people are still thinking about the flop when they are stacking off on the turn.
What hand would call this flop but fold this turn? He can't think the 8 helped me....
Also the point about calling out of the blinds with suited connectors is a good one. I dont think calling a raise from a competent player who opens in late position with a suited connector is a winning play and I think is a mistake a lot of regulars make. We still need to include suited connectors in the opponents range unless we have reason to do otherwise (ie we have seen him 3 bet with them from the blinds)
That's exactly why I would bet. Don't you want him to check raise you when you have what is likely the best hand?
Get him to commit more chips with an inferior hand....
I check behind on the flop for two reasons. I'm nitty enough that I do not want to risk a C/R and, if I am ahead (likely), Villain will STILL have little idea of the strength of my holding. Thus, when he bets the paired turn, I feel MY C/R is more likely to be called, getting me more of a pay-off.
As for the suited connectors OOP from the Blinds, I would also discount this as more of a "mixing up my play" kind of move. But that is probably why you would all win $$$ off of me in the short, medium, and long term. I enjoyed this thread very much. I think I have learned a couple of things beyond how much I need to think about this game.
so we read all the comments again? great!...um... yeah.
He is check raising pretty much all hands that beat AA here as well as some bluffs/semi bluffs so getting check raised isn't something that we want since it will put us in a difficult spot on the turn. Checking behind controls the size of the pot and gives our opponent a chance to bluff at the pot. We don't want to play a big pot on this flop and checking behind still gives our opponent a chance to bluff at it in a spot that we won't be folding and allows us to lose much less when we don't have the best hand.
Yes, but how many of those hands are there (that beat AA) right now, as opposed to hands that have the potential to beat AA on the turn/river.
Maybe I'm putting too much emphasis on Caddy's comment that this opponent likes to check-raise. That, to me, implies that a bluff/semi-bluff is more likely than a hand that I'm currently beat by.
I let the opponent bluff now, and re-raise him....getting more of my money in while I believe I'm ahead.
samesies
Well i don't think that there are many hands that will have many outs against us that he check raises... if he had say 77 with a heart or 87 with a heart i dont think he is check raising. Basically he is check raising a pure bluff, a set/flush or KQ/QJ with a heart type hand. I guess he could have just the ace of hearts but i dont think there are many Axo hands in his calling range preflop. So by betting and shoving over a check raise we are never folding out a hand that has us beat, getting all his bluffs to fold and getting it in against KQ/QJ with a heart type hands which is pretty close to a 50/50 if im not mistaken. So shoving over the check raise is basically turning your hand into a bluff.
If we play a big pot with AA on this board we are very often crushed so we need to play pot control... yes we have the best hand a lot of the time on the flop but the hands that will give us action either crush us or are flipping against us.
i'm not convinced the check followed by a raise on the turn maximizes ev of your hand.