I'm the worst player in the history of poker
I'm pissed at myself for playing this hand this way..an absolute trainwreck.
I'm 99.9% sure this guy has two pr on the flop..either 10-9 or 10-6 but I'll allow for weaker hands if you want (yes I'm sure..I read good>>PLEASE DO NOT SAY 'SET' LATER, SETS DO NOT EXIST FOR THE DURATION OF THIS THREAD ...EXCEPT FOR ME TO RESUCK)
The over-sized flop bet is related to the HH, trust me there also..though if any of you fold to his 2pr for essentially a min raise there..you can brow beat me too.
***What I'm wondering is how you all play the turn?*** (esp. Step 2)
Step 1: Check/Bet
PokerStars Game #15697224764: Tournament #78841779, $25.00+$2.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/03/02 - 20:08:15 (ET)
Table '78841779 193' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: CallMeFishhh (3000 in chips)
Seat 2: lifeskills81 (3050 in chips)
Seat 3: taylobill (2950 in chips)
Seat 4: vinagre1977 (1820 in chips)
Seat 5: JimmyNoname (3030 in chips)
Seat 6: Shizman (2970 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 7: stjoemo (3070 in chips)
Seat 8: THE RAFSTER (2860 in chips)
Seat 9: Kristy_Sea (4240 in chips)
stjoemo: posts small blind 10
THE RAFSTER: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kristy_Sea [Ks Kc]
Kristy_Sea: raises 40 to 60
CallMeFishhh: calls 60
lifeskills81: folds
taylobill: folds
vinagre1977: calls 60
JimmyNoname: folds
Shizman: folds
stjoemo: folds
THE RAFSTER: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [6d 9c Tc]
THE RAFSTER: checks
Kristy_Sea: bets 220
CallMeFishhh: raises 280 to 500
vinagre1977: folds
THE RAFSTER: folds
Kristy_Sea: calls 280
*** TURN *** [6d 9c Tc] [Qc]
I'm 99.9% sure this guy has two pr on the flop..either 10-9 or 10-6 but I'll allow for weaker hands if you want (yes I'm sure..I read good>>PLEASE DO NOT SAY 'SET' LATER, SETS DO NOT EXIST FOR THE DURATION OF THIS THREAD ...EXCEPT FOR ME TO RESUCK)
The over-sized flop bet is related to the HH, trust me there also..though if any of you fold to his 2pr for essentially a min raise there..you can brow beat me too.
***What I'm wondering is how you all play the turn?*** (esp. Step 2)
Step 1: Check/Bet
PokerStars Game #15697224764: Tournament #78841779, $25.00+$2.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/03/02 - 20:08:15 (ET)
Table '78841779 193' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: CallMeFishhh (3000 in chips)
Seat 2: lifeskills81 (3050 in chips)
Seat 3: taylobill (2950 in chips)
Seat 4: vinagre1977 (1820 in chips)
Seat 5: JimmyNoname (3030 in chips)
Seat 6: Shizman (2970 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 7: stjoemo (3070 in chips)
Seat 8: THE RAFSTER (2860 in chips)
Seat 9: Kristy_Sea (4240 in chips)
stjoemo: posts small blind 10
THE RAFSTER: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kristy_Sea [Ks Kc]
Kristy_Sea: raises 40 to 60
CallMeFishhh: calls 60
lifeskills81: folds
taylobill: folds
vinagre1977: calls 60
JimmyNoname: folds
Shizman: folds
stjoemo: folds
THE RAFSTER: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [6d 9c Tc]
THE RAFSTER: checks
Kristy_Sea: bets 220
CallMeFishhh: raises 280 to 500
vinagre1977: folds
THE RAFSTER: folds
Kristy_Sea: calls 280
*** TURN *** [6d 9c Tc] [Qc]
Comments
I usually play 5-10$ tournament so I dunno what the players are like at 25.
I'd tend to go towards A10s.
I either become very rich up or very poor there... bet pot on turn, if he raise I push.
but then... I suck at poker :P
You are looking at hitting runner/runner cause even your K may not be good if he happens to be sitting on JQ.
Effective Stacks are almost 50 BB.
I think a strong draw is more likely than 2 pair here. Your overbet looks bluffy....nuts or air kind of thing. With you playing it this way there is no way you can fold the flop. I would likely 3 bet flop to about $1500 and call a shove.
As played you are in a tough spot. Don't know how likely KJ is unless it is clubs and we know he doesn't have that so I doubt his straight got there. Stacks are good for a CRAI but I still don't know if you have any fold equity but at least you have one out if he has the nut flush!!!
kc,ks win 30.61%: ties 1.52% ... to call 280 into 970ish with him sitting on about 2450. And knowing that there are a lot of pretty gross cards that can come for two pr. here.
I don't think folding is completely wrong, but I'm also not certain that calling is completely terrible...but I actually just want to get to step two.
and you're going to hate my 'exact reads'... it's all timing and intuition.
Hopefully by now I've got enough street cred to just say..I'm pretty sure.
*** TURN *** [6d 9c Tc] [Qc]
Kristy_Sea: checks
CallMeFishhh: bets 880
Kristy_Sea: raises 2600 to 3480
CallMeFishhh: calls 1560 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [6d 9c Tc Qc] [Ad]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Kristy_Sea: shows [Ks Kc] (a pair of Kings)
CallMeFishhh: shows [9h Th] (two pair, Tens and Nines)
CallMeFishhh collected 6130 from pot
For giggles here is the VERY next hand..same tournament
PokerStars Game #15697256727: Tournament #78841779, $25.00+$2.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/03/02 - 20:09:43 (ET)
Table '78841779 193' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: CallMeFishhh (6130 in chips)
Seat 2: lifeskills81 (3050 in chips)
Seat 3: taylobill (2950 in chips)
Seat 4: vinagre1977 (1760 in chips)
Seat 5: JimmyNoname (3030 in chips)
Seat 6: Shizman (2970 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 7: stjoemo (3060 in chips)
Seat 8: THE RAFSTER (2800 in chips)
Seat 9: Kristy_Sea (1240 in chips)
THE RAFSTER: posts small blind 10
Kristy_Sea: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kristy_Sea [Jc Js]
CallMeFishhh: folds
lifeskills81: folds
taylobill: folds
vinagre1977: calls 20
JimmyNoname: folds
Shizman: folds
stjoemo: folds
THE RAFSTER: calls 10
Kristy_Sea: raises 60 to 80
vinagre1977: calls 60
THE RAFSTER: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [4d 2h 3s]
THE RAFSTER: checks
Kristy_Sea: bets 200
vinagre1977: calls 200
THE RAFSTER: calls 200
*** TURN *** [4d 2h 3s] [3d]
THE RAFSTER: checks
Kristy_Sea: bets 260
vinagre1977: folds
THE RAFSTER: calls 260
*** RIVER *** [4d 2h 3s 3d] [Ad]
THE RAFSTER: checks
Kristy_Sea: HAD HONESTLY ALREADY CLICKED 'CHECK/FOLD' lol
*** SHOW DOWN ***
THE RAFSTER: shows [Qd 5d] (a flush, Ace high)
Kristy_Sea: shows [Jc Js] (two pair, Jacks and Threes)
THE RAFSTER collected 1360 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1360 | Rake 0
Board [4d 2h 3s 3d Ad]
Seat 1: CallMeFishhh folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: lifeskills81 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: taylobill folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: vinagre1977 folded on the Turn
Seat 5: JimmyNoname folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Shizman folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: stjoemo (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: THE RAFSTER (small blind) showed [Qd 5d] and won (1360) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 9: Kristy_Sea (big blind) showed [Jc Js] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Threes
or you may try 1/3-1/2 pot and if he comes over the top fold.
This is what I do well.
Finally a neat problem.
In that spot, played the way you did
a) you can afford to fold, and bitch that I should have raised more preflop
b) unless this is a bafooon that I have seen push TPTK
but really what else is going to give you resistance?
- given the position you likely would be up against 78, 9T, or nutflush draw maybe a set, but you would think that set would push scared of a flush draw and overs.
- what hands do you beat?
TPTK ? maybe, but very read dependent if I call/fold/raise
A flush draw? but I think I would rule this out a min raise is the most retarded line I have seen but it is a $27
QQ - JJ , a very weak line given the flush and str draws... again if a bad player then ofcourse, but do you really know anything?
What hands don't I beat?
AA - probably raises so lets rule it out
TT - very likely given preflop
99 - again very likely given preflop
T9 - yep yep PF
78 - yep yep pf
T6s - yah if the guy is an idiot
I just don't think I would want to get stacked here postflop, if it was preflop where the edge was bigger then I would love to get my chips AI.
So with the 3xbb open UTG how many callers did you want?
When I have aa,kk,qq ... especially on stars... I like to over-raise PF just to avoid getting ass-raped by that kind of hand.
sure you only win blinds sometimes but you also don't lose 3/4 of your stack :P
Thanks for the input Tyson! I really cannot explain the feeling that it is not a set or straight, but IS a real hand in any way that doesn't sound flimsy...but I trust myself.
I'm playing crazy farm league there..."Ladies and gentleman, I'll start the bidding at 3xBB" and react from there, sort of like poking small woodland animals with a stick. What do you like to open for?
FWIW if I make it to the turn and pick up that many outs I shove first and put the decision on him. No donkey can fold 2pr after committing another 800 chips to the pot and how do you get paid if he checks behind on the turn and the river flush completes?
I
wow... now I even have my own comic strip!!!
I'm slowly becoming a star!!!
Lets say we agree that he is 99% two pair.
My first thought is to raise here.... How much I don't know.
We are a slight dog to 2 pair but the question is, "Do we have enough Fold Equity to push?"
About 1000 in the pot with 2500 effective stacks...
If your 2 pair read is right..
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s Td 25 56.82 19 43.18 0 0.00 0.568
Ks Kc 19 43.18 25 56.82 0 0.00 0.432
Then we will win 43% of the time we get called.
.43*3500=1505 .... we need to make up about 995 in fold equity to make pushing even money.
Plugging CallMeFishh into OPR yields:
Full Tracking Prizes Profit ROI ABI AFS R/A ITM ITM
Hold'em No Limit $2,921 <$0 -46% $78 3024 27% 6/70 9%
In other words he's a crap player.
What kind of bad player would cold call an UTG raise with T9 or T6?
Very loose ones.
How much fold equity do we have by betting our 2nd nut flush+gutshot plus overcard pair?
Not much.
Conclusion: Pushing isn't right.
What about making a blocking bet?
Has he seen us make blocking bets before?
If we bet say... 300-500... and he just calls we will have correct odds to draw..
What's the chance that he will come over out blocking bet?
Is he aggressive? Will he be scared that the Qc completes a flush/straight?
If he comes over the top I'd fold.
Might want to check your math... you dont need any fold equity for a shove to to profitable against a range of T9, T6
Open limp hoping to reraise UTG, and bitching to fold to aggression on the flop like above.
Most people have no idea of position until midlevel, so 4-5x isnt bad either as it will camo your LP steal esp if you get a chance to show down those monsters.
You have such an edge preflop thats when you money should be going in...as well you know it is hard to fold KK even AA
unless it is a table at bristol, then I would overbet like 6x utg
Humm yes you're right ... duh I forgot he would put in 2500 too ... duh .43 * (1000 in the pot + 2500 + 2500 ) = 2580
yes... shoving is slightly profitable.... shove away...
thanks for the correction!
How do we KNOW he has two pair?
If you can put him on two pair, then how do you not put him on a str?
Or how about a set?
Am i missing something here? how do you narrow the range to two pair?
Like I said you'll have trouble dealing with this, it sounds flimsy but I trust myself.
he was one tabling and his timing was off, he hesitated (but not long enough to be considered hollywooding) then proceeded to raise. At this level and from the way he had been playing thus far- he was NOT a good enough player to do this with a set. (Which he legally weds the second it flops and he protects thereafter with a bigger re-raise) I rule out weaker hands because the raise wasn't enough.. he paused too long to be contemplating my 7/8 potential (which 3x utg is not) and then decided he was good. =top pr +??? 9/6.. the next most likely is a-10s and then 9-6
And when all that fails to convince you, just trust me, or ask someone who's watched me play. You think this is a crazy read, you should see me do POF profiles for guys I know...I'm such a shipper at that.
I'm not being over the top when I say; this is where I'm good. My range is better than your range and I'm able to make better decisions because of it.
I just re-read the HH and realized you were 4 to the flop. Oops! Your flop bet of $220 makes more sense to me now and this changes the way I look at the hand.
His re-raise in a 4 way pot is much less likely to be draw an more likely to some type of made hand. I probably call the flop and CRAI on the turn. You have enough equity to get it in here.
FWIW I can see a player hesitating before their action on that 4 way flop like always. You putting him on 2 pr and not TPTK, Set, or overpair or possibly a big draw is just Voodoo IMO. But if it works for you my hats off.
Interesting hand. Thanks for posting it.
This is similar to pokerJAH's thread. Given his assumption that he knows what his opponent has and that the player is so bad that he will call an all-in on the flop or turn, the best EV-maximizing play becomes to check first then save the all-in bet for a later street when you know that you have the best hand and will be called.
not with all that money already in the pot
Yes it is - Pushing is more profitable than a FOLD, but not a check.
If there is no fold equity at all, then you are only going to win an average of 43% of the money that goes in on the turn, but the less amount of money you put in on the turn the better your equity.
But, if you check or bet small and they shove, you definitely have the right odds to call.
The only reason to push here would be to gain fold equity - so if we are saying that no fold equity can be gained, then shoving is definitely the wrong choice
Do you still like it better than a shove or c/r on the turn? (I can't decide if that sounds sarcastic -so I'm just going to tell you I'm sincerely looking for input)