Analysis of a strange situation

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Comments

  • with medium stacks you can cruise because you will still have plenty of time to win after the smaller stacks bust

    Here's the key point that everyone is forgetting about.. We're giving the SB credit for knowing what he is doing and assuming that he realises he probably doesn't want to dance in this situation.. I've sat in plenty of SnG's where big chip leaders duel to the death with the crappiest cards you've ever seen..
  • I am not entirely sure I see how a raise of 1100 would be better. After blinds and ante the sb had 1900ish chips left, so if I raise 1100 and he shoves I am then looking at whether to call with 800 chips for a 460 main pot + 4400ish side pot. So that's a 800 call for a pot of about 4800+ or 6-1 odds. Even AA is only a 5-1 favorite.

    ok, I admit I'm not really keeping track of the exact stack sizes, but my point is that the entire reason for the bet is to get the SB to fold. You want to put in the absolute minimum number of chips to accomplish that task. Putting him all-in is too many because you'll pay him off when he has a real hand.. 1100 may be too much in this situation because you will probably be forced to call anyway.. What about a raise of 600-700 ? He comes over the top, you toss it away but it's enough of his stack that he's not going to want to tangle without something good.. In that case, you lost 600 instead of 1800 with the same reward.
  • he idea of that post (but I don't know what post you're refering to) might have been that when it's early in the tournament, you may be willing to accept a small EV edge which is high variance because you are more willing to take a little extra risk to build a big stack aiming for 1st place instead of 3rd. (I'm not saying I agree with that idea myself, but I don't really disagree with it too strongly either.)

    Actually, it was a post about bubble play... The jist was that you shouldn't try and hang around/blind down to scrape into 3rd because the payoff for 1st is so substanitally better.
  • What about a raise of 600-700 ?

    Maybe, but then you run the risk of the bet being small enough that the SB may just flat call you with moderate hands.

    My intuition is that you'd just be giving the SB an extra chance to play the hand, which is not what you want when you're on a pure steal.

    ScottyZ
  • IF

    this guy monteroy is a good player that can think on those levels that great players think on, then it is a Johnny Chan play. It is called the set up with a possible bubble making bounty op. He is not donating that much to the shortstack who is clearly still screwed. He is forcing the pot heads up giving himself a chance, and lastly, putting the table on tilt... Setting them up for what is about to come...dominance... gear changes are the shit everyone. The only problem is if the limper is slowplaying. A good player though, would likely know the limper to be limping with non callable junk before risking a large portion of his stack.
    Looks like the play, although losing the hand, did put the table on tilt.

    IF
    this guy monteroy is in the long run a losing player, well, then his play stands for itself.


    peace
    hg :club:
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