Analysis of a strange situation
$20 sit and go. 4 people left, prizes for top 3.
Table '2829709 1' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 2: melodie (2300 in chips)
Seat 4: Monteroy (6810 in chips)
Seat 7: stakha (4245 in chips)
Seat 8: Equis (145 in chips)
melodie: posts the ante 25
Monteroy: posts the ante 25
stakha: posts the ante 25
Equis: posts the ante 25
melodie: posts small blind 200
Monteroy: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Monteroy [6h 4c]
stakha: folds
Equis: calls 120 and is all-in
melodie: calls 200
Monteroy: raises 2000 to 2400
melodie: folds
*** FLOP *** [7c Ad Tc]
melodie said, "what a dum play here"
*** TURN *** [7c Ad Tc] [8d]
*** RIVER *** [7c Ad Tc 8d] [8h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Monteroy: shows [6h 4c] (a pair of Eights)
Monteroy collected 560 from side pot
Equis: shows [9s Th] (two pair, Tens and Eights)
Equis collected 460 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
The other two gave me a very hard time for this play after, though I still think it is valid given my chip position. I knew the sb would fold pre flop unless he had a super premium hand and I would go heads up vs the micro chip guy and even if I lost (which I did) , I would end up ahead for the hand.
They thought it was stupid that I didnt get help eliminating the micro chip person, but as I said after, with 7000 chips I did not care if he was still around with 500 chips. In fact the micro chip guy allowed me to bully the other two for blinds for a bunch of hands.
What do people think of this play in this situation?
Oh, and as an ironic footnote, the following happened shortly after. Stakha was still steaming as this hand happened and I think it is safe to say that he did not play the hand perfectly
Table '2829709 1' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: melodie (1750 in chips)
Seat 4: Monteroy (6120 in chips)
Seat 7: stakha (4985 in chips)
Seat 8: Equis (645 in chips)
melodie: posts the ante 50
Monteroy: posts the ante 50
stakha: posts the ante 50
Equis: posts the ante 50
Monteroy: posts small blind 300
stakha: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Monteroy [2c Kc]
Equis said, "heyas lady"
Equis: folds
melodie: folds
Monteroy: calls 300
stakha: checks
*** FLOP *** [Ts Ks Kh]
Monteroy: checks
ladyluck00 [observer] said, "how ya doing today friend"
stakha: bets 1200
Monteroy: raises 1200 to 2400
Equis said, "chips look bad right now"
stakha: calls 1200
*** TURN *** [Ts Ks Kh] [8c]
Monteroy: bets 2400
ladyluck00 [observer] said, "ya see if u can get 3rd"
stakha: calls 1935 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [Ts Ks Kh 8c] [2d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Monteroy: shows [2c Kc] (a full house, Kings full of Deuces)
stakha: shows [Tc 3s] (two pair, Kings and Tens)
Equis said, "score!"
Monteroy collected 10070 from pot
In the end I did win the sit and go, and the micro chip guy did finish second. Go figure.
Table '2829709 1' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 2: melodie (2300 in chips)
Seat 4: Monteroy (6810 in chips)
Seat 7: stakha (4245 in chips)
Seat 8: Equis (145 in chips)
melodie: posts the ante 25
Monteroy: posts the ante 25
stakha: posts the ante 25
Equis: posts the ante 25
melodie: posts small blind 200
Monteroy: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Monteroy [6h 4c]
stakha: folds
Equis: calls 120 and is all-in
melodie: calls 200
Monteroy: raises 2000 to 2400
melodie: folds
*** FLOP *** [7c Ad Tc]
melodie said, "what a dum play here"
*** TURN *** [7c Ad Tc] [8d]
*** RIVER *** [7c Ad Tc 8d] [8h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Monteroy: shows [6h 4c] (a pair of Eights)
Monteroy collected 560 from side pot
Equis: shows [9s Th] (two pair, Tens and Eights)
Equis collected 460 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
The other two gave me a very hard time for this play after, though I still think it is valid given my chip position. I knew the sb would fold pre flop unless he had a super premium hand and I would go heads up vs the micro chip guy and even if I lost (which I did) , I would end up ahead for the hand.
They thought it was stupid that I didnt get help eliminating the micro chip person, but as I said after, with 7000 chips I did not care if he was still around with 500 chips. In fact the micro chip guy allowed me to bully the other two for blinds for a bunch of hands.
What do people think of this play in this situation?
Oh, and as an ironic footnote, the following happened shortly after. Stakha was still steaming as this hand happened and I think it is safe to say that he did not play the hand perfectly
Table '2829709 1' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: melodie (1750 in chips)
Seat 4: Monteroy (6120 in chips)
Seat 7: stakha (4985 in chips)
Seat 8: Equis (645 in chips)
melodie: posts the ante 50
Monteroy: posts the ante 50
stakha: posts the ante 50
Equis: posts the ante 50
Monteroy: posts small blind 300
stakha: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Monteroy [2c Kc]
Equis said, "heyas lady"
Equis: folds
melodie: folds
Monteroy: calls 300
stakha: checks
*** FLOP *** [Ts Ks Kh]
Monteroy: checks
ladyluck00 [observer] said, "how ya doing today friend"
stakha: bets 1200
Monteroy: raises 1200 to 2400
Equis said, "chips look bad right now"
stakha: calls 1200
*** TURN *** [Ts Ks Kh] [8c]
Monteroy: bets 2400
ladyluck00 [observer] said, "ya see if u can get 3rd"
stakha: calls 1935 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [Ts Ks Kh 8c] [2d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Monteroy: shows [2c Kc] (a full house, Kings full of Deuces)
stakha: shows [Tc 3s] (two pair, Kings and Tens)
Equis said, "score!"
Monteroy collected 10070 from pot
In the end I did win the sit and go, and the micro chip guy did finish second. Go figure.
Comments
i myself wouldnt be able to push all in with that hand fearing maybe that the other guy might have a marginal-half decent hand that will call and i wouldnt want to double him up as well......
i would probably (if the hand permits) push over the top AJ- and better, pocket 9's and higher.... but i like how u bullied out the other guy to benefit yourself
as the chip leader , its not YOUR responsibilty for elminating every1, who want to coast into the money
J, I think this reply warrents a detailed explaination.
What do you do when the SB calls your crap play with a great hand and you lose your chips?
I agree with everything Pigga said except for the 'like and dislike' part.. Theres no need to risk doubling up a contender so you can play heads up with someone who will bust shortly anyway. Being the table marshall is a great way to finish not 1st.
So, let me ask you, would you risk your 2,000 chips even as a 2-1 favorite. If you lose you win 0. If you fold you are pretty much going to win 3rd place +.
You seem to be focussing primarily on whether being all in with 4 6 is good or not. I am not debating that, nor would I have called an all in from the SB.
I do know that I got about 2000 chips from the 2 other people as I kept shoving all in whenever the micro guy folded.
So to answer your question, if the SB takes the risk and doubles up then I have to struggle with the 5000+ chips I have left
Perhaps even a "bad" play can be good in the right context.
..and when they call you with their great hands, you give them back all those chips plus more.
Winning a SnG at the risk of finishing in 4th lands up being a good play as long as doubling up gives you a great chance of winning.
Pushing in 2000 chips to win 145+blinds with a garbage hand is no example of that theory.
On further consideration, I *really* like it.
In terms of risk-reward, there's nothing unusual going on here. He's betting 2,000 chips to steal 560. That's a considerable overbet, but nothing crazy. People under normal circumstances would raise to 2*Pot (or 1,100 in this case) on a blind steal. What's wrong with overbetting on a steal attempt where you don't want to get called?
Also, he believes that the steal has a very high probability of success due to the fact that the other player in the pot will probably be very averse to playing against the chip leader during this particular hand. It's nothing more than a good steal attempt.
It has already been montioned that a huge chip leader has no incentive to go out of his way to bust the short stack. I might even carry this idea further and propose that a huge chip leader to some degree prefers the ultra-short stack to remain in the tournament. Why? Probably the 2nd and 3rd stacked players are easier to run over with a short stack around since their fear of bubbling out (when they could simply "wait out" the short stack instead) makes them play sub-optimally in terms of stealing or defending blinds themselves.
Nice play.
ScottyZ
This play works and works often. It works best when you have the others covered but will work even when your even them. On the bubble players with meduim stacks will raise their premium hands because they do not want to fool around with anyone that can take all their chips.
If he posted the exact same hand history, but instead it was titled 'What did I do wrong?' and it had the SB calling him with AA, theres no way in hell you'd call that a nice play.. You'd post a response along the lines of 'Oh, when the SB Limped, I smelled aces from a mile away'..
It looks like a great play because it worked on that instance. I seriously doubt that it's a great strategy to employ in the long term.
To trap the overagressive bettor that the original poster was being. He said he stole about 2000 chips, so I assume his opponents would be looking for trap opportunities.
I think that the SB limping here indicates he is thinking something more along the lines of "I want to eliminate the short stack so I'm going to invite the BB to play along for free and hopefully we check it down".
Thinking that the SB is going to wake up with a hand he will call with (e.g. AA) so often in the long run that this steal (2,000 to steal 500) would be unprofitable is a tad on the pessimistic side.
ScottyZ
However, this point:
is one I haven't considered before. Maybe because the situation just doesn't come up that often... a micro-stack is so micro that you're not worried about busting him out, because he poses little to no threat to you. This is a tough one. Do the benefits of keeping him around (being able to push around 2nd and 3rd place players) outweigh the dangers (having him double up, even just twice, and getting back into the game with 4 players, when it could have been a game of 3, with all of you in the money)?
Hell, I don't know.
Regards,
all_aces
In Sit'N'Goes this often comes up and the chip leader should be taking advantage of it. I do think that the original poster bet too much but said that they would have easily folded if reraised. This is always key when being very aggressive. You must be able to lay a hand down if reraised.
I really don't think that medium stacks will risk having their premium hands busted at this point of a Sit'N'Go (whatif it's the one time the big stack sees a free flop?). Even when they know the chip leader is being over aggressive I cannot see the medium stacks slow playing premium hands (at least I wouldn't not until we're in the money). The medium stacked player's main concern should be to just make the money by eliminating the short stack.
Jamie.
Yes, I knew it was a SNG... and you're right, it goes without saying that situations where it's advantageous for a big stack to push around the others near the bubble do come up all the time. The part I was referring to was a situation where a shortstack is so short that you don't want to bust him out with 4 left. Keeping someone in a game when only the top 3 are paid is risky, regardless of the player's stack sizes. In NL, anything can happen, as I'm sure you know, and that means that a micro-stack could double to a short-stack, and then he could double to being a stack that could actually do some damage to you.
I'm not sure that a big stack should go out of his way to avoid busting a small stack, though. By keeping him in, the big stack has a 1 in 4 chance of winning. By busting him out, it's 1 in 3. I think what we're talking about here isn't whether or not a big stack should push the others around when it's bubble time. He should, it goes without saying. I think we're talking about whether the risk is worth the reward by intentionally keeping the microstack in.
Regards,
all_aces
I'm starting to regret mentioning that the big stack may benefit from keeping the micro-stack alive. I consider this mainly to be a quirky side effect. The main aspect of this play is stealing the side pot I think.
The important thing is that there was an extremely good chance here to pick up the 560 in the side pot with a steal, regardless of the chances of busting or not busting the micro-stack.
Don't forget that you're not only getting those chips yourself, but also taking that 560 (plus possibly avoiding losing future bets in the worst cases) from a different player who is even more of a threat to you.
ScottyZ
Of course you still need to pick your battles, let them fight for the bubble and play smart. Take the steals and fold when they push (unless you wake up to a monster). Again I think that the original poster overbet and I think a standard raise is more than enough.
To respond to the poster who asked:
"If he posted the exact same hand history, but instead it was titled 'What did I do wrong?' and it had the SB calling him with AA, theres no way in hell you'd call that a nice play.. You'd post a response along the lines of 'Oh, when the SB Limped, I smelled aces from a mile away'..
It looks like a great play because it worked on that instance. I seriously doubt that it's a great strategy to employ in the long term."
I used the theory that AA and KK hands are not dealt that often. If AK calls then I am a 2-1 underdog, which I was willing to take the risk on given my chip situation.
Don't forget, there was always the chance of beating the microchip guy for themain pot, and I certainly had a better chance of doing that heads up then trying to beat 2 people with that hand.
Completely unrelated note. When I click on a thread it is showing the most recent posts first instead of last which is sort of annoying. Feels like I have to read them backwards. I fiddled with the various options but cant seem to get it to work. Any suggestions? I promise not to reraise all in...
You can go to User CP a the top of your screen, edit options, near the bottom you will be able to sort the threads any way you want.
Agreed. Furthermore, the SB is pretty likely to limp in with just about *any* two cards with the hopes of getting an extra opportunity to bust the micro-stack if the big stack BB decides to go the "checking it down" route.
On a note not unrelated to the unrelated note, I've recently done the opposite and changed to "most recent post at the top" viewing after a long stretch of reading the forum the other way. I wanted to avoid the page jumping problem, where sometimes I was missing reading Post #10 after Post #11 arrives. My jury is still out on which way I like better.
As was mentioned already, you can set this however you want in your User CP.
ScottyZ
Wrong. The medium stack player should be looking for his best opportunities to try and win the SnG. 1st pays 5x the entry fee, 2nd pays 3x, 3rd plays a measly 2x. Your goal in a SnG is to win, not to limp into 3rd.
...or 77 or better and you are a massive dog and basically just gave away your chips.. and players LOVE their pocket pairs to death.
As for aces TPFAP point about keeping the shortstack alive, I think it's applicable to a multi table tournament when the short stack truly is ULTRA short (because you started the tourney with 100+ stacks of equal size). You'll rarely get an opponent into that kind of shortness in a SnG where 2 wins in a row will get you average.
Anyway, the way I see this entire hand is that you tossed a lot of chips into the pot with complete rags against an SB who said he's got enough of a hand that he'd like to showdown with the shortstack and might even want to show down with you.
Heh, you don't have to tell me about how people play hands like 77. I swear some see any pair and see AA.
Still, despite the pair love, the situation makes it very hard for a person that close to the edge to call. You keep talking about how I will likely lose if I get called. Sure, but I was counting on not getting called which will almost never happen in that situation. Seriously, even if I showed my hand beforehand I bet people would fold better hands still in that case.
I still remember another sit and go with 4 people left. I had 6,000ish chips another guy had 6,500 and the other 2 had less then 500 each. I had AA and raised to 600 and the chip leader shoved all in. There I was with AA staring at 2 micro chip people praying I called (which I did), though I did think of folding since I was pretty certain to get 2nd. I called and lost to KK. I don't think I made the wrong play in that case, but I seriously gave thoughts to folding as well.
A better goal is maximizing your expected payout I think.
Calling 200 more from the SB into an 820 (total) 3-way pot says this? It suggests "any two cards" to me.
Many players will call here expecting to get all the way to the showdown for free via the chicken race because there is a short stacked player all-in. In fact, if you were 100% sure it will be checked down, it's correct to call with pretty much any two cards because you will be getting over 4 to 1 on your money. You can play any hand that you believe has at least a 20% shot of winning at the river.
I don't see the SB needing anything even close to strong values to call pre-flop here.
ScottyZ
I totally agree with Scotty... As an example.... Suppose the small stack pushes with any K or A... knowing the BB has a random hand... the small blind can "almost" correctly call with 72o.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7c 2d 272028 19.85 1095067 79.89 3659 0.27 0.199
Ac 6h 555709 40.54 811386 59.19 3659 0.27 0.406
Js 8d 539358 39.35 827737 60.39 3659 0.27 0.394
The two medium stacks will play their big hands with raises and limp with marginal hands hoping to eliminate the micro stack. There is absolutely no reason for the medium stacks to mess with the big stack and risk bubbling out. I completely disagree. When playing in a Sit'N'Go your first objective should be to make the money. From there your goal should be to win. Saying that, you should always prefer 1st to 2nd or 3rd but to make profit you first need to make the money. Playing only to win will often have you bubbling out or busting out well before the money. This is an important stategy that I needed to learn before becoming profitable in Sit'N'Go tourneys which is where I have made most of my poker profits. I don't mean to sound like mister know-it-all but I really disaggree that you should be playing to win a Sit'N'Go right from the start if you want to be a profitable player longterm.
Jamie.
I believe I read it on either an RGP post or a 2+2 post (no time to check, sorry) that your profit in SnG play comes from those 1st places. Sacrificing 3rds in order to get more 1st is actually a more profitable play than getting into the money with a shortstack and burning out in 3rd.
To finally close off discussion on this thread (or atleast my side since everyone is telling me I'm wrong), I think if you want to run this play you don't need to risk all 2K chips. A smaller raise of 1100 or so would have the same effect (idea straight from TPFAP)..
I agree completely. A smaller raise will have the same result from your oppenent.
Here's where I think the line is drawn. I agree you don't won't to play so tight that you have no chance of winning and only placing but there is a balance of risk to reward in Sit'N'Go's. If you have a short stack as you get closer to the money you will need to pick a hand and go with it, with medium stacks you can cruise because you will still have plenty of time to win after the smaller stacks bust, and with a large stack there is no reason not to try and win chips in every good situation (such as the one discussed in this thread). Chip stacks will drive the way you play throughout the course of the Sit'N'Go and they will be different every time.
The best way I think to gain a longterm profit is by winning the most you can out each Sit'N'Go you play.
Jamie.
Seems you have to call a reraise no matter what with an 1100 raise, so may as well shove and force the 3rd place person to make a tough choice.
This kind of thing is going to depend on the exact situation.
The idea of that post (but I don't know what post you're refering to) might have been that when it's early in the tournament, you may be willing to accept a small EV edge which is high variance because you are more willing to take a little extra risk to build a big stack aiming for 1st place instead of 3rd. (I'm not saying I agree with that idea myself, but I don't really disagree with it too strongly either.)
However, it may be better (i.e. maximizes your expected win) in some specific situations (in both MTT's and SNG's), usually based on stack sizes and/or the way your opponents are playing, to try to coast up the ladder instead of aiming for the big cheese.
Maximize your expected win. Going for 1st place at all costs may or may not be the best way to acheive this. In any case, you should re-evaluate your goals as a tournament progresses. Don't get married to any particular overall plan.
Is the idea to automatically push all-in on any flop if the 1,100 is called? The SB has only 1,875 chips at this point.
ScottyZ
Now realizing that the SB only has $275 more than my normal raise I will raise "All-in" which for all intents and purposes is the same as Monteroy.