I would say that it is a game of at least 90% luck and maybe 10% skill. Betting at the right time is the only thing that a poker player can do to increase their probability of wining, but once your chips are in the pot there is nothing that you can do ensure that you will win the hand.
You must play alot of freerolls then.
[sacasm]If it's 90% luck I know some lucky players (Mario excluded as he is truly a luckbox) [/sarcasm]
I believe that it is usually illogical to go all-in in a MTT right before you are about to finish in the money. ... I believe that it is always illogical to go all-in pre-flop in a MTT when you are within 10 players from the money, and you are 100% sure that you have enough chips to finish in the money. I hate gambling, but I do enjoy playing skill based games for money. That is why my first priority in a MTT is to finish in the money, and my second priority is to win the tournament.
You got those backwards.
1st priority is to win. That's where the money is.
You got those backwards.
1st priority is to win. That's where the money is.
Do you have any idea how unlikely it is for a player to finish in 1st place in a tournament with more than 100 entrants? A good player that plays in tournaments with 100 entrants might be able to finish in the top 10 on a regular basis, but there is no guarantee that the player will ever finish in 1st place. It is highly likely that they will get a 1st place finish eventually, but it is not a guarantee. And I think it is ridiculous for a player to believe that they will have a 1st place finish in a tournament with more than 1000 entrants.
If you fold AA pre-flop, you have almost NO chance of winning a 100 person + tourney
but, umm... we don't suck
Mark
I’m not going to argue with you. Keep playing the way you play. I depend on players you because every time a player is knocked out I am closer to the money. Just don’t get upset when more than one person decides to call your all-in and your 88% chance of winning drops dramatically. Don’t get upset if you get a bad beat after going all-in in 1000+ entrant tournament when you were just 5 players away from the money.
Do you have any idea how unlikely it is for a player to finish in 1st place in a tournament with more than 100 entrants? A good player that plays in tournaments with 100 entrants might be able to finish in the top 10 on a regular basis, but there is no guarantee that the player will ever finish in 1st place. It is highly likely that they will get a 1st place finish eventually, but it is not a guarantee. And I think it is ridiculous for a player to believe that they will have a 1st place finish in a tournament with more than 1000 entrants.
You misunderstand.
Playing to win allows the player to have a big stack heading into the money and positions them to push for 1st and with the top heavy payouts you don't need too win that often to make it worth it.
I’m not going to argue with you. Keep playing the way you play. I depend on players you because every time a player is knocked out I am closer to the money. Just don’t get upset when more than one person decides to call your all-in and your 88% chance of winning drops dramatically. Don’t get upset if you get a bad beat after going all-in in 1000+ entrant tournament when you were just 5 players away from the money.
Those that play "to make the money" are easy prey at the table. They will end up short stacked and wonder why there Aces got cracked when they pushed with 3BB left and got called by crap with 100BB. Or when they make the money they have so few chips left that they spent hrs grinding it out for SFA in winnings.
You misunderstand.
Playing to win allows the player to have a big stack heading into the money and positions them to push for 1st and with the top heavy payouts you don't need too win that often to make it worth it.
Those that play "to make the money" are easy prey at the table. They will end up short stacked and wonder why there Aces got cracked when they pushed with 3BB left and got called by crap with 100BB. Or when they make the money they have so few chips left that they spent hrs grinding it out for SFA in winnings.
A player should definitely try to accumulate a much chips as they can when the tournament begins, but I believe it is wise to become more conservative when you are close to the money.
Well, IHP's stance is one of a lot of players who think making it in the money is more important then trying for the win. That may be the case depending on the payout structure of a tournament (though that is rare).
IHP is also not trying to make that specific point, and I tend to agree with those that state that his approach may lead to a few more bottom rung in the money finishes but less money won overall since you are very unlikely to ever have a final table finish.
I did face a situation in a Stars sit and go a couple years ago that was very strange but illustrates a potential fold AA situation abit. There were 4 left to go, top 3 make money (I think it was a $20 one) as follows:
1st $90 2nd 54 3rd 36
I had 5500ish chips the chip leader had 6500 and the other two players both had about 500 chips.
I got AA raised and the chip leader shoved. He had KK (and he sucked me out, though that is not the point :P), but a mathematical point could be made that based on expected finishes a call or fold were both viable options in terms of EV. However, this was a very unusual situation.
Obviously folding AA in a satellite when you are going to make it is viable as well.
Folding to make the money is viable in fairly extreme situations. Maybe if you were in a Stars $10 rebuy with the bottom prize level being the by far biggest jump and you have such a tiny stack that winning an all in will not do much and you are hand for hand - maybe folding is viable EV wise. I have folded AK preflop once in a while in these situations.
Otherwise - folding AA preflop really makes no sense to me.
Oh, being willing to wager one's entire bankroll as a 6-1 favorite is also a bit insane as well
Ha ha. Mark's b/r is about $1.98 + a 25 cents off Ex-Lax coupon. Not much of a challenge dude. Now if we wanted to put up say all of the empty beer bottles in Zithal's garage...well now there would be something on the line.
The fact that you're not okay with putting your BR on AA is crazy
Mark
You seem to be assuming that I want to take the other hand in a gamble your bankroll situation, so let me try to explain this "complicated" concept again using well placed all cap words as an aid.
- If I HAD to wager my ENTIRE bankroll on ONE hand of holdem preflop then obviously it would be on AA.
- I think anyone who would CHOOSE to wager their ENTIRE bankroll on a SINGLE hand even as a 4-1 to 9-1 favorite (depending on opponents hand) is very, very foolish, unless that person is a constant heavy loser at the game with no chance to ever improve and vows to quit after that single hand. Or perhaps if his bankroll is very, very tiny. If either of these conditions apply to you then I can understand why you would not have an issue with the gamble
Basically if you have a 50% advantage.
You would put up 50% of your bankroll.
that is a little oversimplified. You seem to forget that you never really know your odds of winning. You can estimate that but can never really be sure. Of course you can always go with a half kelly or any fractional kelly system for your bank roll. A 3/4 kelly will give you about 90% of the value of a full kelly system.
The way I might phrase it would be, "bet such that you if you win, you win a percentage of bankroll equal to your percent edge." So just as on your example. If you have an edge of 5% and are betting at +165, you'd bet 3.03% of bankroll to win 5%. Similarly, if you have an edge of 5% and are betting at -200, you'd bet 10% of your bankroll to win 5%. And of course this only applies to the single asset model for win-only (no push) bets.
Tough break. The only way to confirm your suspician is play live poker for at least 20 hours a week and you will be suprised the patterns you will notice. I find Poker Stars very similar to live game patterns. I frequently played a various poker rooms with suffle masters using alternate decks I would identical hands 5 -6 times in a row ! Last week at Niagara on 1 -2 NL with a 2 deck shufller, I received suited 7 - 2 8 times in a row and red pckt AA 3 times in a row. I play 3 times a week averaging 8 - 24 hr sessions and see this quite often. Don't give up. Play more often and have faith
The way I might phrase it would be, "bet such that you if you win, you win a percentage of bankroll equal to your percent edge." So just as on your example. If you have an edge of 5% and are betting at +165, you'd bet 3.03% of bankroll to win 5%. Similarly, if you have an edge of 5% and are betting at -200, you'd bet 10% of your bankroll to win 5%. And of course this only applies to the single asset model for win-only (no push) bets.
Comments
You must play alot of freerolls then.
[sacasm]If it's 90% luck I know some lucky players (Mario excluded as he is truly a luckbox) [/sarcasm]
You got those backwards.
1st priority is to win. That's where the money is.
Girl on girl doesn't count as gay porn
Ummm... well, I guess it doesn't? Does a MFM 3 some count?
Mark
Do you have any idea how unlikely it is for a player to finish in 1st place in a tournament with more than 100 entrants? A good player that plays in tournaments with 100 entrants might be able to finish in the top 10 on a regular basis, but there is no guarantee that the player will ever finish in 1st place. It is highly likely that they will get a 1st place finish eventually, but it is not a guarantee. And I think it is ridiculous for a player to believe that they will have a 1st place finish in a tournament with more than 1000 entrants.
If you fold AA pre-flop, you have almost NO chance of winning a 100 person + tourney
but, umm... we don't suck
Mark
I’m not going to argue with you. Keep playing the way you play. I depend on players you because every time a player is knocked out I am closer to the money. Just don’t get upset when more than one person decides to call your all-in and your 88% chance of winning drops dramatically. Don’t get upset if you get a bad beat after going all-in in 1000+ entrant tournament when you were just 5 players away from the money.
You misunderstand.
Playing to win allows the player to have a big stack heading into the money and positions them to push for 1st and with the top heavy payouts you don't need too win that often to make it worth it.
Those that play "to make the money" are easy prey at the table. They will end up short stacked and wonder why there Aces got cracked when they pushed with 3BB left and got called by crap with 100BB. Or when they make the money they have so few chips left that they spent hrs grinding it out for SFA in winnings.
Read a book or something.... in the meantime.. enjoy your 2x your buy-in "profit"
Lame
Mark
And that's only IF he makes the money 100% of the time.
A player should definitely try to accumulate a much chips as they can when the tournament begins, but I believe it is wise to become more conservative when you are close to the money.
So, I'm about to sign up for a 180 on stars.. get in there IHP
Mark
IHP is also not trying to make that specific point, and I tend to agree with those that state that his approach may lead to a few more bottom rung in the money finishes but less money won overall since you are very unlikely to ever have a final table finish.
I did face a situation in a Stars sit and go a couple years ago that was very strange but illustrates a potential fold AA situation abit. There were 4 left to go, top 3 make money (I think it was a $20 one) as follows:
1st $90 2nd 54 3rd 36
I had 5500ish chips the chip leader had 6500 and the other two players both had about 500 chips.
I got AA raised and the chip leader shoved. He had KK (and he sucked me out, though that is not the point :P), but a mathematical point could be made that based on expected finishes a call or fold were both viable options in terms of EV. However, this was a very unusual situation.
Obviously folding AA in a satellite when you are going to make it is viable as well.
Folding to make the money is viable in fairly extreme situations. Maybe if you were in a Stars $10 rebuy with the bottom prize level being the by far biggest jump and you have such a tiny stack that winning an all in will not do much and you are hand for hand - maybe folding is viable EV wise. I have folded AK preflop once in a while in these situations.
Otherwise - folding AA preflop really makes no sense to me.
Oh, being willing to wager one's entire bankroll as a 6-1 favorite is also a bit insane as well
Let' do it!
The fact that you're not okay with putting your BR on AA is crazy
Mark
You seem to be assuming that I want to take the other hand in a gamble your bankroll situation, so let me try to explain this "complicated" concept again using well placed all cap words as an aid.
- If I HAD to wager my ENTIRE bankroll on ONE hand of holdem preflop then obviously it would be on AA.
- I think anyone who would CHOOSE to wager their ENTIRE bankroll on a SINGLE hand even as a 4-1 to 9-1 favorite (depending on opponents hand) is very, very foolish, unless that person is a constant heavy loser at the game with no chance to ever improve and vows to quit after that single hand. Or perhaps if his bankroll is very, very tiny. If either of these conditions apply to you then I can understand why you would not have an issue with the gamble
And he won that in a beauty pagent.
(Who here is old enough to get that)
Mark did also have a 50 cent coupon for Trojans in his roll too but sadly, it expired before being needed.
What is the Kelly Criteria?
Basically if you have a 50% advantage.
You would put up 50% of your bankroll.
With that mindset of folding AA preflop, even if you do make it to the money, chances are you are only going to finish in the lower spectrum anyway.
that is a little oversimplified. You seem to forget that you never really know your odds of winning. You can estimate that but can never really be sure. Of course you can always go with a half kelly or any fractional kelly system for your bank roll. A 3/4 kelly will give you about 90% of the value of a full kelly system.
The way I might phrase it would be, "bet such that you if you win, you win a percentage of bankroll equal to your percent edge." So just as on your example. If you have an edge of 5% and are betting at +165, you'd bet 3.03% of bankroll to win 5%. Similarly, if you have an edge of 5% and are betting at -200, you'd bet 10% of your bankroll to win 5%. And of course this only applies to the single asset model for win-only (no push) bets.
For more on Kelly go here: http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Articles/BETTING/3376/a-quantitative-introduction-the-kelly-criterion.aspx
Overestimating your odds always leads to ruin when using a kelly system.
Thanks Joe!
This is a much better than what I said.
Seat 2: donkey1 (2610 in chips)
Seat 3: donkey2 (3315 in chips)
Seat 4: donkey3 (1525 in chips)
Seat 5: donkey4 (2030 in chips)
Seat 8: donkey5 (1700 in chips)
Seat 9: donkey6 (2320 in chips)
donkey2: posts small blind 50
donkey3: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
donkey4: folds
donkey5: folds
donkey6: calls 100
donkey1: calls 100
donkey2: calls 50
donkey3: checks
*** FLOP *** [7c Ts Th]
donkey2: checks
donkey3: checks
donkey6: bets 100
donkey1: folds
donkey2: folds
donkey3: calls 100
*** TURN *** [7c Ts Th] [6c]
donkey3: checks
donkey6: bets 500
donkey3: calls 500
*** RIVER *** [7c Ts Th 6c] [Tc]
donkey3: bets 825 and is all-in
donkey6: calls 825
*** SHOW DOWN ***
donkey3: shows [Kd Td] (four of a kind, Tens)
donkey6: shows [8c 9c] (a straight flush, Six to Ten)
donkey6 collected 3250 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3250 | Rake 0
Board [7c Ts Th 6c Tc]
Seat 2: donkey1 (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: donkey2 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: donkey3 (big blind) showed [Kd Td] and lost with four of a kind, Tens
Seat 5: donkey4 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: donkey5 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: donkey6 showed [8c 9c] and won (3250) with a straight flush, Six to Ten
This "hand" reminds me of those Texas Hold'em Scratch-&-Win cards