it was still first level. therefore i don't really have a read on anyone yet (i think it was literally 3rd hand in).
Full Tilt Poker Game #3855479239: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (29354495), Table 1 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:15:09 ET - 2007/10/14
Seat 1: Big Dog Kujo (1,755)
Seat 2: spazm6666 (1,545)
Seat 3: papatop (1,500)
Seat 4: m_dolens (1,470)
Seat 5: rs19ls11 (1,500)
Seat 6: RDMJR (1,470)
Seat 7: masjas20 (1,500)
Seat 8: bullpen56 (1,500)
Seat 9: KiLlaCoSs (1,260)
m_dolens posts the small blind of 15
rs19ls11 posts the big blind of 30
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to m_dolens [As Ks]
RDMJR folds
masjas20 raises to 105
bullpen56 folds
KiLlaCoSs calls 105
Big Dog Kujo folds
spazm6666 folds
papatop calls 105
m_dolens has 15 seconds left to act
m_dolens calls 90
rs19ls11 folds
*** FLOP *** [2h 6d Qc]
m_dolens checks
masjas20 bets 450
KiLlaCoSs folds
papatop folds
m_dolens folds
Uncalled bet of 450 returned to masjas20
masjas20 mucks
masjas20 wins the pot (450)
what i'm curious about is how others would play this hand. should i be raising preflop? i am in worst position and therefore trying to take it down preflop is probably a good option. however, if i'm raising here i'm committing minimum 1/4 (most likely a 1/3) of my stack on the third hand with three potential callers. however, i didn't really feel like a call was a good play though. i'm leaning towards raise or fold. any opinions?
It looks like there are 2 lines;
Call the 105 and checkraise push to any A or K (aprox 1/3 of the time)
or
Raise all in preflop.
The way I usually play this is the passive wimpy call and cr the flop. But the push all in looks good too... I can't decide.
AKs is behind AA or KK.
Everything else is a coinflip or you're ahead if you get to see all the cards.
Even if they are tight.
Preflop raiser's range is probably looser than JJ+ AQ, AK+
But even if we pick a worse case scenerio.
There are only 3 A's and 3 K's left.
So there are 3 way to make AA
3 * KK
6* QQ
6* JJ
8 * AQ
6 * AK
You're 12% to win against AA and about 34% to win against KK.
Let's simplify and say you're even against other pairs and AK.
Against AQ you're 75% to win.
So...
AA .12 * 3 =.36
KK .34 * 3 =1.01
AK .5 * 6 =3
AQ .75 * 8 =6
QQ .5 * 6 =3
JJ .5 * 6 =3
Total of 34 hands you will win... 16.37 times..
So it's about even with the preflop raiser if he's tight. If he's loose then you're definitely ahead.
What's the range of the cold callers?
Well if they were smart they would not be cold calling with AA or KK since the last thing you want with AA or KK is to play in a multiway pot.
So I might simplify and say their range doesn't include AA or KK.
So you're at least even against them... 26 hands winning 15 times.
So it looks like raising here... now should you raise 1365 all in or raise something like 600...
The pot has 350 in it... your stack has 1470 in it...
I'm going to assume that if you get a big stack early you know how to dominate a 5.50 tourney so that it's +ev to take a shot at gambling to get that big stack.
If you raise 600 they will reraise you all in with AA or KK and you will have 870 and be looking at a 1550 pot...
Pushing eliminates your bad position on later streets.
thanks for the detailed breakdown reef. i agree that the two callers probably didn't have hands like AA or KK since just cold calling in that position would be not the smartest move (although granted they might not be smart). i also agree that raising anything but all in is debatable due to my position and the potential of 3 possible callers. if i'm going to raise i think it has to be all in at this point.
i'm starting to think that my major hang up on this hand is the fact that it's still very early in the tournament (3rd hand). if it was later i'd probably have no problem pushing here. however, as many have stated (and i personally agree), if i push and win i'm more or less guaranteeing a money finish.
Comments
And you LOVED it too
It looks like there are 2 lines;
Call the 105 and checkraise push to any A or K (aprox 1/3 of the time)
or
Raise all in preflop.
The way I usually play this is the passive wimpy call and cr the flop. But the push all in looks good too... I can't decide.
AKs is behind AA or KK.
Everything else is a coinflip or you're ahead if you get to see all the cards.
Even if they are tight.
Preflop raiser's range is probably looser than JJ+ AQ, AK+
But even if we pick a worse case scenerio.
There are only 3 A's and 3 K's left.
So there are 3 way to make AA
3 * KK
6* QQ
6* JJ
8 * AQ
6 * AK
You're 12% to win against AA and about 34% to win against KK.
Let's simplify and say you're even against other pairs and AK.
Against AQ you're 75% to win.
So...
AA .12 * 3 =.36
KK .34 * 3 =1.01
AK .5 * 6 =3
AQ .75 * 8 =6
QQ .5 * 6 =3
JJ .5 * 6 =3
Total of 34 hands you will win... 16.37 times..
So it's about even with the preflop raiser if he's tight. If he's loose then you're definitely ahead.
What's the range of the cold callers?
Well if they were smart they would not be cold calling with AA or KK since the last thing you want with AA or KK is to play in a multiway pot.
So I might simplify and say their range doesn't include AA or KK.
So you're at least even against them... 26 hands winning 15 times.
So it looks like raising here... now should you raise 1365 all in or raise something like 600...
The pot has 350 in it... your stack has 1470 in it...
I'm going to assume that if you get a big stack early you know how to dominate a 5.50 tourney so that it's +ev to take a shot at gambling to get that big stack.
If you raise 600 they will reraise you all in with AA or KK and you will have 870 and be looking at a 1550 pot...
Pushing eliminates your bad position on later streets.
Comments?
i'm starting to think that my major hang up on this hand is the fact that it's still very early in the tournament (3rd hand). if it was later i'd probably have no problem pushing here. however, as many have stated (and i personally agree), if i push and win i'm more or less guaranteeing a money finish.
i'm still not 100% sure of the best play here.