Using the prize structure and an Independent Chip Model calculator, my tournament equity if I fold my pair of Queens would fall to $1,080 (83K chips out of 600K) while my opponent's would rise to $1,309. If I call and win, my opponent would be eliminated and my equity would rise to $1,956, for a gain of +$876. If I call and lose, my equity would fall by -$753 to $327 (only 19K chips left).
Using ICM analysis a la Dan Harrington, my probability of winning would have to be 46% [753 / (753 + 856)] in order to make calling profitable. I told my opponent that I wanted to call because I think I was beating him and he replied nervously, "I hope not." My read was that I was probably beating him unless he was slowplaying a monster. I will be conservative for my calculations and assume that there is a 40% chance that he is winning, a 30% chance that he hit with a worse hand, and a 30% chance that he is bluffing.
1) 30% chance that he did not hit at all, e.g., Jx, Ax, flush or straight draw. He has 0-9 outs and my probability of winning is ~93%. 30% * 93% = 27.9%.
2) 30% chance that my pair of Q is beating his hand, e.g., QT-Q4, 3x, 2x. He has 3-5 outs and my probability of winning is ~87%. 30% * 87% = 26.1%.
3) 40% chance that he has a better hand, e.g., Kx, 33, 22, Q3, Q2, AQ. I only have 2 or 3 outs and my probability of winning is ~5%. 40% * 5% = 2%.
My estimate of my total winning probability is 56% (27.9 + 26.1 + 2), which is greater than the 46% required, so calling is the correct decision.
$EV = 56% * +$876 + 44% * (-$753) = +$159.
I would have to be more than 50% sure that he was winning to make folding the better option.
I did call, and he showed K-2 for 2 pair on the flop! River was not a Q and IGHN on the bubble. :redface:
Nice analysis,
What ICM calculator did you use?
In the future it would help if you posted the payout structure if you use that in your calculations.
Comments
Nice analysis,
What ICM calculator did you use?
In the future it would help if you posted the payout structure if you use that in your calculations.