All-in on the bubble
Situation: Final table of a Skill Level 6 tournament with a $250 buy-in. Six players remain standing, with the top five getting paid. You are third in chips with $105,000 of the ~$600K chips in play.
Blinds: $3,000/$6,000
Only the small blind calls. You have classified him as a LAG.
Your Hand: :qc :jd
On the big blind, you raise another $16,000. SB calls.
Flop: :ks :2h :3d
You both check.
Turn: :qd
Action to you: SB goes all-in for $64,000.
Question: Do you fold or call?
Blinds: $3,000/$6,000
Only the small blind calls. You have classified him as a LAG.
Your Hand: :qc :jd
On the big blind, you raise another $16,000. SB calls.
Flop: :ks :2h :3d
You both check.
Turn: :qd
Action to you: SB goes all-in for $64,000.
Question: Do you fold or call?
Comments
FOLD
WHY?
You are third in chips....got slow played on the flop.....by small blind who could be on any number of hands.
YOU CHECKED THE FLOP AFTER RAISING PRE FLOP.......
Without a continuation bet on the flop you lose your grip on the hand, and have to lay it down to any number of hands....Maybe small bling woke up with a big King (hence his preflop call). Maybe he called pre flop with a must call hand like Pocket 3's or 2's.....
what ever the case, you checked the flop....(no feeler bet, no continuation bet) you played it weak and must fold......and if SB is bluffing....this is not the time make your stand and check him out......
I am not a poker teacher, except in my own mind....but did it occurr to you that the lion share of any continuation bets.....ever.....when they are made, are made with nothing!!......made simply because of a follow up to a pre flop raise.....a pre flop raiser isnt going to hit the flop all the time......not even some of the time.......A pre flop raiser almost has a responsibilty to protect his pre flop raise by following up on the flop.....taking it down, or at least getting some info on other players in the hand.
What does a pre flop raise do??? to other players it tells them to watch out for a big hand, it is a pot builder, a warning of sorts......with that said.....a check on the flop after your raise sends 2 messages.......You either hit and have a big hand (slow play)......or you missed and your pre flop raise that gave you an image...just fizzled....in my opinion either scenario is weak......you pass the advantage you gained by pre flop raising......right back to your opponents.
Considering the 2 messages I discussed above about hte pre flop raise.......in this case you can send any message you want but the truth is......you missed the flop.....the only way to win the hand once youve missed the flop is bet at it......and you didn't.
Now you got pushed all in.....how could you call.....even if SB is on a move, there are 2 many hands that would allow hime to call your pre flop raise......(AK, 22,33,44,55,66,77,88,99,10 10, JJ, QQ, or AA.) He might have even been a donkey and called just to protect his blinds at an attempt to outplay you post flop (which he has done by the way).....that adds to the potential calling hand for him including (A5, 23 suited, 45, A3 or anything really)
It is usually alot easier to narrow down a players potential hands, but in the case because he had a small amount pre invested he could have called you with 1. ANYTHING....or 2. A good hand........
Either way you are probably losing......FOLD.
even if he is on the blow and making a move, or attempting to outplay you....do you want to start guessing on the bubble....NO
You were out played.....move on and be thankfull you have chips to take a more calculated run at the money!
your thoughts??
Josh, you got far too hung up on a lack of a continuation bet. Maybe Hero does lose this hand because he didn't make one.. but if Villian is going to start open pushing turns, why bother cbetting? Isn't that more exploitable?
I HATE THIS LINE OF THINKING
You call BlondeFish weak-tight all through this post, then you make the most absolutely weakest statement ever. This is a $250 level tournament. I expect even the most cluelessly laggiest of Lags to understand that Fold Equity increases on the bubble.
I was merely trying to simplify the situation. Hero can get away from the hand if the "C" bet as you put it gets smacked back and re raised. The worst has happened here though and the Hero now must decide for a lot more than a value feeler bet. Thats all I was trying to say. It's just easier to fold when the villian re raises you, than if you check and he simply pushes all in.
End result agree though???? it is a fold right??
my logic and wording might be debatable in some arenas.
I just viewed the post as soemone seeking an opinion or assesment. Given the parameters of the situation described, I just thought I had to comment/critisize.
I personally find a weakness in my game clamming up on the bubble and not having the intestinal fortitude to play anything but tight in such a delicate part of the tourney. I am constantly fighting the demons that tell me to sit tight and pick the right spot. I admittedly should be more agressive and not be afraid to bubble out. I find myself lacking the ability to prey on others fear and tightness around the bubble.
2 schools of thought I guess.
1. Prey on others tightness.......force others descisions and say "I am in the money if youre not going to step up and put your chips at risk..."
or 2. sit tight and let some other hot head fulfill his own destiny because he chose number 1 above and knocked someone out, or himself.
Still in Blondefish's hand......a bet on the flop was missed. If she really wants to know sincerly whether to call the push or not, My belief is she would have found out with a flop bet.......now however in the current spot shes in, she has no real info. Thats all I mean...
He's a LAG.
You checked an obvious c-bet situation.
You hit.
Pot is 102K ....
I assume you are playing for 1st and don't care about getting some piddly little 6th place prize.
You induced the LAG to bet, you hit ...
See if you can beat him to the centre with a call.
but are you guys forgetting that BB called an extra 16000...pre flop.
even a LAG doesnt want to protect his big blind that badly....
Can we not put him on a hand of some sort.....you guys have just assumed the Blondefish goated him into this amazingly stupid pre flop call. The LAG is allowed to have an actual Calling hand!! like K10, K9 suited or something worth a look see 6 handed. Just cause hes a LAG (at that is just an observation afterall), doesnt mean he will play at every pot...doesnt mean he wont wake up with a hand....
While further posts have me wondering about the call and I am a little curious....I still have to LAY it down and pick a better spot, where more information was gotten.....like from that Missing c-bet that everyone seems to agree was the play.
Yes, but it's more likely that he missed/can't beat queens.
I expect to see something like JJ- with no set.
Seriously, why would you bump it preflop and then not c-bet?
/g2
Simple answer based on the above = a must call. I can not see a way to justify a fold unless you almost certain you are beat.
Josh, there is no way you can fold here. The missed c-bet is a definite error but if anything it tied you to the hand unless you are sure you are beat. The range of hands the LAG could have here is just way to large to fold!
When he called my pre-flop raise out-of-position, I put him on a better hand than mine since he had previously folded to me in blind vs. blind situations. I was closely observing him when the dealer showed the flop and he checked, and my spidey senses were telling me to also check and get a free card. I have position, so he will have to make the first move on fourth street, giving me a little extra information.
In addition, he was one of the two loosest players in the final table that were most likely to call a continuation bet. A continuation bet of 22,000 or half the pot would have committed almost half of my stack, and I would probably be forced to call a check-raise all-in with nothing but Q-high (42K/172K = 24% breakeven).
To summarize, while I love making continuation bets, in this particular hand, I put my opponent on a better hand before and at the flop; I felt that I did not have enough fold equity against this type of player to make a continuation bet with the worse hand a +EV action. When the Q hit on the turn and he made the all-in overbet, I was faced with a difficult decison. I will post my analysis of my decision later.
It was quite possible he had a King, he might have checked the flop to check-raise you on the flop. Going all-in on the turn when the Q came seems alot like he wanted you to call, hoping the Queen helped your hand.
It is obviously the Q could have helped you much more than hurt you, so I believe folding was a good decision.
If this hand was played out in different positions I may agree but...this was a battle of the blinds. Hand ranges can be so huge for both the villian and the hero. Sure it is possible that the villian has KK but it is also very possible to have 72o as well.
Using ICM analysis a la Dan Harrington, my probability of winning would have to be 46% [753 / (753 + 856)] in order to make calling profitable. I told my opponent that I wanted to call because I think I was beating him and he replied nervously, "I hope not." My read was that I was probably beating him unless he was slowplaying a monster. I will be conservative for my calculations and assume that there is a 40% chance that he is winning, a 30% chance that he hit with a worse hand, and a 30% chance that he is bluffing.
1) 30% chance that he did not hit at all, e.g., Jx, Ax, flush or straight draw. He has 0-9 outs and my probability of winning is ~93%. 30% * 93% = 27.9%.
2) 30% chance that my pair of Q is beating his hand, e.g., QT-Q4, 3x, 2x. He has 3-5 outs and my probability of winning is ~87%. 30% * 87% = 26.1%.
3) 40% chance that he has a better hand, e.g., Kx, 33, 22, Q3, Q2, AQ. I only have 2 or 3 outs and my probability of winning is ~5%. 40% * 5% = 2%.
My estimate of my total winning probability is 56% (27.9 + 26.1 + 2), which is greater than the 46% required, so calling is the correct decision.
$EV = 56% * +$876 + 44% * (-$753) = +$159.
I would have to be more than 50% sure that he was winning to make folding the better option.
I did call, and he showed K-2 for 2 pair on the flop! River was not a Q and IGHN on the bubble. :redface:
I knew he wanted to tempt you into calling by going all in.
The preceding post was made a fucking goof with nothing more creative to say than that single line above. For all his bashing and bitching, he has yet to post anything worth of value on this forum. Even the spammers are more worthy and creative than this brain dead goofball.
Percentages......pershmentages!! you are on the bubble and there will be better opportunities t oknock people out or gather chips. The fact that you needed to create an entire quadratic equation on whether to call or not just means that it was a marginal descision at best. You proved it by only having a 10% edge on the EV (56%) as opposed to the 46% needed as you put it.
The right descision....maybe mathematically....but over all, I wished you had not revealed that you called.....because I would have simply reminded you of this after all the math was worked out............YOU ARE ON THE BUBBLE.....the chance was too marginal. Tournaments are not INTELLIGENCE CONTESTS....they are money contests....you need to make the money, and being that close....you were clouded by the logic, and let the opportunity pass. You turned our beloved game which we all agree is more skill than people depict, into a guessing game.....and on the bubble to boot.
Wait for a better spot next time, a more readable situation......and maybe A HAND before you think your way out of a tourney and out of a cash.
I know you were playing to win, and went about trying to win the way you knew how.......but there is another school of thought about cashing.....winning is important if you are at it for sport, and as long as you have a shot why not take it.......BUT.......for others....me included....cashing means you did whatyou set out to do. You entered to win money.....youhad a chance to back in....and then take an aggressive shot.....no you have no shot at all.
In closing I must say your math was impressive, and has convinced me that the call was not such a bad descision. I would have no problem making that call in a cash game......or early on in the tourney for a sizeable pot. but simply....(and this is what tourney life is about) NOT FOR ALL YOUR CHIPS, AND NEVER SHOULD SUCH A MARGINAL CALL BE MADE ON THE BUBBLE.
YOUR OUT.....do ya get it. No one was waiting with your grand prize and falling balloons and confetti if you happened to be right, instead "LETS SHOW EM WHAT HES WON!!""
Nothing......
I hate to be dramatic, but you used your own poker prowess to kill yourself in this situation. You overthunk it!! The logic gets pretty simple down near the bubble......DONT FUCK UP and dont TAKE UNNESSESARY RISKS. You did.
I can tell you are a superb well thought out player. I wish to sit with you one day in a tourney, if I havent already. I think there are parts of a tournament where you just gotta dumb it down, and use your super powers in safer situations.
When do you dumb it down?? well to give an example.......a rebuy tourney, early on.....where you look down at JJ and have to call several all ins, and you know you are up against QQ or KK or even AA. Math....Shmath.....You call because Pot Equity is high, and you stand on the cusp of being chip leader, or the prospect of a rebuy......
Another example.....you have AA and someone pushes all in.....then another. then another.....you begin to realize that you could lose the hand....the math says you might....but you call,,,why wouldn't you. The same math you used on the bubble now offers you another marginal call.....but thats not why you call.....you call cause theyre Aces......
Dumbing it down is a nessesary part of it all. If we let math govern all descisions than we lose the humanity factor....the logic.....the reads...and the tells.........You should have dumbed it down on the bubble the same way you'd dumb it down and get out of the way of an all in called by others on the bubble to back in.
All that being said it is just my opinion for what thats worth.
I hope through all the time and novel sized postings on the matter...someone read it all and says.....hey Josh.....not bad.......see you at the tables.
http://www.pokerforum.ca/showthread.php?t=13011
Brent
PS Does the price of the buy in change your decsion making?
This forum is such jokes.
Where the fuck is haddon!!?!??!?!?!
/g2
Ya I gotta play my heads up match
I knew you were a knob.
The buy in does not change the equation......
Sometimes you dumb it down and call with the AA....
Your are there to get those dream hands.....
they say AA is not favourite once 3 hands call. I would make the descision situation specific.
My point to Blodefish was to leave the math at the door when common sense prevails. At the WSOP with AA on the bubble......themath may tell you to fold......but dumb it down they are aces......call.
Common sense. This example seems pretty easy....
plug in Blodefish's examply hand, and I gotta ask, what the hell are you guessing at, calculating.....NO KING...NO CALL. if it was his intention (I think Blondfish is a guy byt he way) to make a move ont he hand.....he messed it up by missing c-bet.
250$ tourney or WSOP......use common sense. I would rather make a move on a guy who limps, checks, then bets.......rather than calls a raise checks then pushes.......the whole situation does not seem safe from the get go........especially in such a tight spot in the tourney...
I think we have exhausted this thread....
NEXT SCENARIO!
/g2
Str82Ace.
Start using the ignore user function. It was made for him.
Thought about that...but to be honest, I'm hoping one of the mods steps in and does something.
This has gone on for long enough...and just ignoring this idiot won't do. So until a mod bans either him or me, I'm going to keep bashing the little shit.
AA is an equity favourite here ALWAYS.
FWIW, I like the call based on the thought process of vilian's range here. It's +EV, thus it's good. Don't let anyone tell you it's the wrong decision simply because it's an "unnecessary risk". Poker is always a balance of risk/reward, and if you passing up the rewards becuase it's too risky for you then you're leaving money on the table (this is applicable in both cash and tourney situations).
Too many people here seem to be hung up on the fact that Hero is calling off his stack (as opposed to betting/raising with it). Why is this SOOOOOO bad? Because too many people are still inclined to think that it's ALWAYS better to be the aggressor (regardless of the situation). Step back, look at villian's tendencies and you'll realize that we inspire him to bluff off his stack here a LOT with worse hands. Sure in THIS instance Hero trapped himself, but in many circumstances villian just bluffed off his stack and is often drawing very thin. NH, tough result, that's poker.
The right move would have been to fold, and Blondfish did not make the move.
I also think Blondfish is a dude, pretending to be a chick. What a messed up personality.
Yet another reason why the great poker players don't post here any more. Thank-you sir!
ROFLMAO....oh Skully, you priceless little bitch...talk about a messed up personality. You MUST be twins using the same account...one person cannot possibly be that stupid.
But that's just me and how I play, but I can see why you called.