Math call with K8o... Do you think I'm an idiot?
Here's the situation. There's a $3/$6 player sitting at our $1/$2 table (it was late and all the $3/$6 tables had broken), basically raising and gambling with any two cards. He and his buddy were just screwing around, and I knew it was just a matter of time before one of them gambled at the wrong time.
The two of them decided to leave, and on the last hand one of them went all-in blind for about $100. I was on the button with two people to act behind me. The small blind didn't seem to have any intention of calling, and the big blind really wanted to call, but you could tell it would have been a gamble for him and that he didn't really have that good of a hand.
I look down and find K8o. Normally I would just throw this away in this spot, but knowing that the first guy went all-in blind, there's a very good chance I had the best hand. I knew if I called the big blind would fold, so it would be heads up, and I really felt comfortable making the call. I just felt that I was good.
I called, the blinds folded, and the 3/6 player showed Q6o, slightly worse then an average hand, which is exactly what I was hoping for. But he spiked a 6 on the flop and took all my chips. I actually felt really good about the call though, all things considered... and you can't do much more then get your money in with the best hand. Sure I -could- have waited for a better spot, but I was up for a bit of a gamble, and ultimately it came down to a math decision.
Usually when I go to the casino I'm there with a buddy of mine, and when he saw my cards he was basically completely sickened. Even though I explained that K8o is better then a random hand, and that I was roughly a 2:1 favorite, he still couldn't believe I made the call.
So, I ask you this... would -you- make that call? And why?
The two of them decided to leave, and on the last hand one of them went all-in blind for about $100. I was on the button with two people to act behind me. The small blind didn't seem to have any intention of calling, and the big blind really wanted to call, but you could tell it would have been a gamble for him and that he didn't really have that good of a hand.
I look down and find K8o. Normally I would just throw this away in this spot, but knowing that the first guy went all-in blind, there's a very good chance I had the best hand. I knew if I called the big blind would fold, so it would be heads up, and I really felt comfortable making the call. I just felt that I was good.
I called, the blinds folded, and the 3/6 player showed Q6o, slightly worse then an average hand, which is exactly what I was hoping for. But he spiked a 6 on the flop and took all my chips. I actually felt really good about the call though, all things considered... and you can't do much more then get your money in with the best hand. Sure I -could- have waited for a better spot, but I was up for a bit of a gamble, and ultimately it came down to a math decision.
Usually when I go to the casino I'm there with a buddy of mine, and when he saw my cards he was basically completely sickened. Even though I explained that K8o is better then a random hand, and that I was roughly a 2:1 favorite, he still couldn't believe I made the call.
So, I ask you this... would -you- make that call? And why?
Comments
Prophet22
Ps you may have to learn how to get let it go once in a while.
I see you met AcidJoe...;)
K8o against a blind allin is borderline in my book, but still, I think math wise it was good call.
You are likely in a coin flip or near to coinflip situation - you will have a slight advantage over random hands over the long run - but this hand is only happening once.
I don't mind the call - but realize it for what it is - a coinflip - where you have a slight head wind in your favour.
P.S. K8o vs Q6o is only a 5:3 fave, not quite 2:1.
/g2
I was a bit worried about that, but I was comfortable in my reads. The SB didn't seem interested in the hand at all, and the BB wanted to gamble but I felt there's no way he could call if I did (he's a relatively good player, so he would be aware of the gap concept).
Yes and no. Granted people don't usually go all-in blind like this, so it's definitely a rare situation, but it's impossible to say if it's going to be the only time you're ever going to be in that position.
With that reasoning, you could say that you're only going to get dealt the jack of diamonds and the 8 of spade once in the small blind at a 6 handed $1/$2 cash table when you're UTG... you simply don't know how often a situation is going to come up, you can only play it as if you're going to have that situation come up numerous times in your lifetime, which is part of the reason I called this.
I'm curious to know if people would answer the same way if the player looked at his cards first and pushed and you looked down at a pair of jacks? It is unlikely that you are dominated in this situation since he would be unlikely to push with aces, kings or queens, but you could easily be in a coin flip. Is it always about the math?
Completely different situation.
If he looks at his cards, you need a really good hand to play with him, and then it comes down to what hands this particular player would be moving all-in with in this spot (also depending on position, stack size, etc.).
In this particular case, he didn't look, so I don't need a premium hand to call. The average/random hand is Q7, and given that I had K8, I felt pretty good about my chances. Basically, if he doesn't have an ace or a pocket pair, I'm ahead... that's one of the biggest reasons I called.
Don't get me wrong, this -was- a marginal call, and I could've easily been crushed, but I felt good about my chances. I won't make this call all the time, as I usually like waiting for better spots to get my money in, but I was comfortable making this call and in the long run it would show a profit.
I just wanted to know what others would do in this situation, give the circumstances. I'm actually very surprised I haven't been called a donkey once, haha.
All depends on the player. Some people play solely based on the math, others play by gut feeling, and others (such as myself, and most other players, I would assume) use a combination of both.
You need a good foundation in math, if only for the basics of the game, but sometimes you're going to be put spots that math goes completely out the window. Say someone gives has a monster stack compared to you, and they put in a ridiculously big bet on the river, effectively putting you all-in. You might not have a hand good enough to make the call when it comes to the math of the situation, but your gut might tell you otherwise. That's why you see pros making calls with ace high on the river, enough though the odds are against them, they feel they're good and make the call.
Of course it doesn't always work out, but you have to follow your gut. Math can only get you so far.
what does 100 bucks mean to you? if it means not making the rent, then you would be an idiot to call. if you blow that on shots on a slow night, fill your boots.
almost anyone would flip a coin for a buck. make it 1000 bucks and you don't get as many takers. make it 100 grand and not nearly so many. even if someone gave you favourable odds...
plus you need to factor in one of the guys behind may just decide to call with a big hand. the 1-50% of the time you read them wrong, you just blew 100 bucks, quite possibly more.
You are a bad player.
Go play 2/4 Limit.
66% of the time YOUR cards miss the board.
$100 is barely a pair of shoes...who cares?
Seriously. You made the call, GAMBLING, hoping to double up the EASY way. Why do you give a shit what your friend thinks? You wanted to make a quick $100, you didn't. If you thought you were a good player you would have waited for a better spot. I can deduce that you like to talk the odds game etc, but any solid, math playing person I know would not make that call. You gambled, you lost...end of it.
Don't come on here and ask if it was a good move. You know the answers.
Math wise - yes in theory.
Poker wise - no.
Roll wise - no.
Risk management wise - no.
Gut wise - no.
Semi long term variance wise - no.
WISE??? - NOPE!
Why?
You called it a rare situation. Unless you come across this exact 'rare' situation x more times and you are lucky enough to have your variance be EXACT (which it is not) AND you have the same stack, versus a stack the same or larger and you both hold the SAME cards...*breath*...you will make money in the very very very long run making this donkey ass move.
Play craps if you want to gamble. Don't be a bad player trying to get a quick double up and then come on here and talk about the math in your decision. Waiting to play post flop poker is a much better way to win money. But why do that when you could just get it all in with *best case* a small edge and K8o when two players are left to act?
The Donktor is a fish.
But I KNOW the play is high variance and my roll can support it.
I JUST HATE THE WHINING. It's poker, do it and live with it.
Don't ask people you don't know if it was right. If you are comfortable enough with your game to make the call, you should be comfortable enough to lose and move on. It is 100 bucks.
Essentially I made my post harsh and will continue to be harsh in the future to deter the whining threads. I'm not sorry you are losing sometimes when you are ahead...shut up about it.
(And I said the math is right.)
Plus, he could be in a 3-4 handed pot. It is silly and high variance. Sure he probably has the 'edge' but wait for a better spot if you aren't comfortable enough with your game to suck it up and shut up.
EDIT:
An msn conversation that made me analyze my thoughts clearly...
Josh Haddon says:
I thought I wasn't really that mean
but I dunno
Greg says:
that post doesn't bug me
Josh Haddon says:
I hate it all
Greg says:
it was kinda dumb is all i think
you think he was whining?
Josh Haddon IS says:
whining....asking people he doesn't know...whatever it was
if you care when you lose don't gamble
play small ball preflop
I don't need to hear it
I have seen 100's of thousands of hands
I don't care to read some donkeys fucking questions about math when it isn't about math
he knows the answer
he needs personal validation
Greg says:
i guess he's not getting it from you
Josh Haddon IS free and therefore has nothing left to lose. says:
if you need the validation of others when you make 'correct' plays, then you shouldn't play poker.
Greg says:
what if he had 100k bankroll?
Josh Haddon IS free and therefore has nothing left to lose. says:
then he wouldn't post such useless shit.
Greg says:
likely true
Josh Haddon IS free and therefore has nothing left to lose. says:
100% true
/g2
That post right there deserves an award
Did I say that mine can't support it? It's $100, not my life savings.
Who the hell's whining? I just wanted to know who else would make that call. The extent of my whining was "But he spiked a 6 on the flop and took all my chips." Wow, I'm such a crybaby aren't I?
Again, where's all this whining you're talking about?
Were you dropped on your head as a child? How do you see this as needing personal validation? I could care less if someone thinks I'm an idiot for making this call, I just wanted to know who else would have done it.
This entire thing has taken such an amusing turn. A simple question has been flipped around on me and now I'm a whining donkey that needs personal validation. Too funny.
I couldn't agree more!
- A whiner
- A bad player/donkey/fish
- I need personal validation from other people
It's amazing that from one simple question everyone knows everything there is to know about me and how I play poker. Even though I've been a winning player for over 2 1/2 years, I now see that asking a question about a marginal call (which I was in the lead on) is simply not acceptable, and that I really do suck at poker.
The fact that some of you have taken this so seriously shows just how pathetic your lives are. I was looking for some feedback about what YOU would do in a situation like this, I wasn't looking to hear about how bad of a player you think I am.
Also, I already mentioned in my original post that I was up for a gamble, so thanks for pointing that out sherlock.
The egos that some of you have is ridiculous. Get a grip.
K8 MAKE... LAME ARGUMENTS!
/g2
That's one of the things that's so amusing. They make that call any day, yet I'm a whiner and a bad player for making it myself. Pot, meet Kettle.
I don't think it was a joke, just an overreacting ego.
/g2
And ranting to a friend on MSN trying to prove your point that a freakin' forum post is dumb, that's a joke? Sounds like someone with issues that has too much time on their hands to me.
When I see a forum post I don't care about I move on to the next post, not spend my time trying to prove the person that posted it is an idiot and calling them names. Gee, what a funny joke.
/g2
This is hilarious. Doesn't matter what I say, it gets twisted.
I said I'd move on to the next post if it wasn't something I had an interest in. However, it's been my experience that it's hard to read the feedback people have left for you when you ignore your own thread and just move on to the next one.
/g2
"When I see a forum post I don't care about I move on to the next post."
"I said I'd move on to the next post if it wasn't something I had an interest in."
/g2