Comments wanted
Playing a live $125 SNG. 8 people remaining blinds are 100 200. I have 7K, with starting stacks of 5K. There are 2 largish stacks (the two who took out the two that went out) and a few short stacks. I have been able to steal some pots and have a reasonably tight image (I was getting respect for my raises etc). Villian here has played pretty ABC and has shown willingness to fold after the flop if he feels he's losing, he is 2nd in chips.
Villian raises UTG +1 to 700 it's folded to me on the button and I call with 7h 3h (not a great call but I have position) and villian has twice now folded to me after the flop with either a re raise or a bet if he checks.
Flop comes 5h 6C 9h. Villian bets out 1300, I re raise to 3500. He thinks and thinks and thinks before announcing all in and I insta call.
He shows Kd Ks and I get no help. The player beside me shakes his head and basically thinks I'm a donk for my play. After the flop I'm ahead and I assumed when he pushed he had a big pair. Yes I'm drawing but have a ton of outs to connect with.
I bust out but am sure I would have dominated the table by taking this hand down. Outside of possibly the very loose call comments are welcome.
If this was Wes and he had AA I know I win...... LOL
Villian raises UTG +1 to 700 it's folded to me on the button and I call with 7h 3h (not a great call but I have position) and villian has twice now folded to me after the flop with either a re raise or a bet if he checks.
Flop comes 5h 6C 9h. Villian bets out 1300, I re raise to 3500. He thinks and thinks and thinks before announcing all in and I insta call.
He shows Kd Ks and I get no help. The player beside me shakes his head and basically thinks I'm a donk for my play. After the flop I'm ahead and I assumed when he pushed he had a big pair. Yes I'm drawing but have a ton of outs to connect with.
I bust out but am sure I would have dominated the table by taking this hand down. Outside of possibly the very loose call comments are welcome.
If this was Wes and he had AA I know I win...... LOL
Comments
Four 4's, four 8's, and seven more hearts...Total outs 15
Villain makes a pot sized bet Total pot thus far is 1700. Hero raises to 3500. You have to put him on a high pair at this point regardless of his next move.
You do have a ton of outs with two cards remaining (chances of getting one of your outs I THINK is about 30% <15/50>). I believe I'm reluctantly calling here as well, but I'm praying to every higher being ever mentioned when I do. I would appreciate if someone sees an error in my logic to comment on it as well.
Other than the preflop call, I don't think you did anything wrong persay. You took a gamble that didn't pay off.
yes, you are potentially >50% (quite conceivable it was less, too) to win the hand but... that minish raise served no purpose. it committed you to the hand but gave you no fold equity and no escape route. in a cash game this play might make sense.
That's the best you can offer? Damn, Greg, this post has your name written all over it!
Enlighten us, oh Mighty Math Master.
Assuming he had AhKh (since he raise pre-flop and raised after the flop), you would have 14 outs. 8 for your double belly buster, 6 for any 7 or 3.
Assuming he had an over pair (which you did), you have 17 outs. 9 hearts plus 8 for your double belly buster.
I would fold on his pre-flop raise or maybe just call his raise instead of re-raising him after the flop since he could have had AhKh or better. The texture of the flop lured you in. Would you do the same in a live game?
Not a great call? Yikes. Position is ALL you have here. Implied odds? You're committing 10% of your chips with this cheese. Even IF you flop a monster draw like you did, you're still flipping and probably aren't getting much fold equity trying to get this guy off his overpair. He's an ABC player and raised UTG+1. With much deeper stacks, and a much better read on the player, you can think about making these ultra loose implied odds calls vs likely monsters, but not here. Just fold.
FWIW, your post flop play is fine, IMO. That's not where the mistake is made in this hand. You're the favorite here (albeit a small one), you're not folding, but just remember, calling off 10% of your stack preflop for the chance to race against a big stack when there's little to no pressure from the blinds makes little to no sense.
The player beside you doesn't understand that you were ahead even though you were 'drawing'.
You were the favourite and you got all the money in the middle with the edge. What's wrong? His lead out bet probably told you that he had some kind of hand (weak-tighties don't lead OOP) but you flopped a monster against him.
But Scooby, we don't play poker with our cards face up
Sorry to be harsh Joe but brutal pre-flop call plain and simple.
That said post flop you had lots of outs. I likely just call the flop bet and hope to catch the turn, if you don't hit you can get away from this and still be ok but you decide to commit your whole stack to a draw? You were slightly ahead on the flop, likely something around 55-45 or close to it so yeah I think after you're raise you pretty much have to call his all-in but why even get yourself into this position. Had you just called his post flop bet and got to see the turn you could get away from this...if a blank comes on the turn you drop to something like a 65-35 dog or worse. I don't think you were in a situation where you needed to basically coin-flip your stack? I think this is a bust out that could easily have been avoided and I think this is a good example of "gambling" versus good poker.
Not sure exactly what justification you are looking for here but if you're going to make calls like this you're going to get into trouble?
other than that you only have 15 outs, someone said 17, they are double counting. you're about 55% to win on the flop, if you see the turn and river... the fact that this guy play ABC definately allows you to put him on a hand that he isn't folding right now. i mean he raised preflop and comes out with a pot sized bet on the flop... i know it hurts but with an average stack i'm not going to coinflip for it at this point when you know you're getting called by a made hand. i think taht you can fold on the flop.
It was live.
OOPS! my bad, thought it was online.
As I said he had previously folded to either a bet or re raise from me. Maybe he got tired of me doing this. Maybe this time he had a hand he couldn't get away from and KK sounds like it.
I posted this to create some discussion which obviously it did.
And given my cards fold preflop is the standard answer, altho in the cards/chips/position world of poker I do like playing position. A loss of this pot from him would damage him. I had never played with this guy before but did he consider I may have flopped a set and he was way behind.
Anyone who has ever played with me knows I do take shots like this. The next blind level is 200/400 so accumulating chips is important.
To those who said call, if I believe I'm ahead I don't call. Maybe if I push he lays it down, either way I get my money in when everything (to me) says I'm ahead.
I may be wrong...but I counted 9 hearts plus 8 for his double belly buster=17outs?
I understand why he was making the preflop call, I just don't think he was getting the right price to do it. If I'm calling off 10% of my stack preflop, I want to be like 99% sure I'll stack the guy if I hit. Not to mention the fact that what we're probably hoping for is a big draw with this hand, which isn't exactly a big favourite postflop (vs. say calling to flop a set with a small pair). Getting 10:1 here to stack the guy doesn't look that good to me given how lousy the hand is.
Now I know there are some other considerations here too:
a) Can we pick up the pot with a bluff on an A high flop (hoping we're up against a big pair and not AK)?
b) Can we bluff off AK if he misses the flop?
We're going to have some interesting decisions to make on whether to take stabs at pots and we don't have much of a read on this guy.
Looking at the chances of:
a) stacking him on the small chance we flop a monster
b) bluffing him off a pair on an A high flop
c) bluffing him off overcards on a rag flop
I don't think we flop that monster nearly enough to make a) work getting 10:1.
B and C require getting us out on a bluffing limb vs a player we don't have a completely solid read on yet. While I think we are sucessful bluffing him off a few flops, I think we also commit a lot in spots we're in rough shape on desperation bluffs.
I don't think the preflop call is anywhere close to being +EV. Change the stack sizes to 70000 and 100000, and I probably shut up.
stp
That said, I think you have to look at the rest of the table. Did you feel you had the ability to outplay the rest of table? You view your opponent in isolation, yet the table is still 8 handed. No need to swing for the fences this early unless you don't think you can win otherwise.
I always ask myself, "Do I need to win this hand to win the tourney?". You may have been 55% to win that hand, but if you think your chances of winning the tournament are good, then really overall, you are reducing your chances of victory, because if you get stacked your chance to win is zero and there was a 45% chance of that happening.
Math it like this:
a. Win the hand - 55% * say 80% to win tourney = 44%
b. Fold the hand - you have to consider yourself 44% or less to win to make this play worthwhile
Lets say you think you would be 75% to win the tourney:
55% * 75% = 41.25% on so on.
55% * 70% = 38.5%
See what I mean about actually reducing your chance to win?
/g2
/g2
So far it's been a very good discussion which is what I hoped to get.
Yes, excellent discussion!
stp
I believe the real question to be: Is it a good play preflop to call off 10% of your stack in order to pick up chips by outplaying your opponent postflop? They key is that you'll pick up a ton of chips from the weak-tighties when they miss. You aren't nescessarily looking to stack off the Villain, just gain some easy money.
Say you hit the double gut, he'd never see it coming and you'd most likely get all his chips in there, if you hit the flush, then maybe he'd get scared off but still your getting some bricks to ur castle, and if an A hits, you got him on a big pair so take the pot then and there from him, and if he's got enough instinct to call u, u still have a plethora of outs. Let's say the turn bricks and he's still firin' you can get out and still have chips to spare, unless he makes it too cheap like a $1000-$2000 bet then take the sweet odds given and cross ur fingers, however the A on the river may not scare him cuz by this point he'd prolly put 2 and 2 together ur draw missed or if he's slightly amateurish he'd call anything due to "pot commitment" or "had to call". That's my take n e way and woot 100 CPF post **who the hell cares, I know***
Umm...ok now I'm really confused. Can we get a description of our opponent again? Is he weak tight, or is he bad? Are we looking to stack him if we flop big, or are we looking to just bluff regardless what hits the board (and if so, what indication do we have that he'll lay down a hand). Do we really have a read here, or is this "I saw him raise once preflop then fold the flop" Maybe he missed, and he's not a complete LAG? It's easy to say "I'll outplay him postflop, I have position", but what is hero's PLAN for outplaying him post flop. Is it to stack him with a monster (because he knows the raiser is unable to fold), or is it to auto-bluff most flops and force him to lay down a hand? IF he is in fact weak tight as is suggested, your major problem here is that you're targeting a weak-tight player that raised UTG+1. He has a hand...have fun getting him to lay it down, especially if your image is the type to be taking shots with suited junk when you're in position.
I know as poker players we all have egos and we all KNOW how well we'll outplay all of our opponents when we have position and in NL we can justify making ridiculous plays like this with "reads" and "implied odds" yadayadayada...but every now and then sometimes the simpler play is the better one.
I've already stated that I don't think you have the right price going in for this to work.
Now I'm going to ask how specific your read is here. Is it:
a) he's weak-tight - I'll push him off a hand regardless
b) he can't fold hands, I'm going to stack him.
c) somewhere in between?
The problem with a) is his range is probably AA-QQ and AK here. Pick a better fight.
If it's b) again, I don't like the price you're being offered.
If it's c) How solid is our read to begin with?
Good topic though guys, keep it coming.
Granted there are other things to consider then just the cards....but you also cannot ignore the cards. Especially when calling and not raising....So ask yourself again....Do you call off 10% of your stack when you are not desperate to an EP raise from an ABC player who can take you out hoping to outplay him post flop with any two? Not me.
I'd be more inclined to open with any two cards looking to steal then call a raise from someone you have pegged as ABC opening for a raise from early position?
If you truly try to classify the players then trust your damn read on him and fold this trash.
The mistake was made pre-flop, you made a bad call then you caught enough that you were priced in to race and hoped to hit your draw. I think that's completely at the opposite end of the 'out play your opponent post flop' spectrum.
I picture him holding a "pick-up 4" Uno card and 1988 Topps Jose Canseco ^-^ .
As far as the pre-flop call I have a hard time making a case for it. This is not a suited connector or even a one gapper so he is very unlikely to hit the flop hard. The price in terms of stack percentage is simply too high.
He could take the hand down after his opponents miss but the price to find that out is just too high. The call is 10% of his stack and a reasonable c-bet is another 20-30%. He would be risking nearly half of his stack to make this play. Your stack = power in a tourney. Don't go donking if off with such a marginal play.
Personally I wouldn't play this hand with 100BB with out a really good reason.
Now that the flop hit him between the eyes I think the correct play was to push the flop.
Combo draws are ridiculously +EV for the following reason: You can push your chips in and take down the pot a large %age of the time without a fight. The times that you do get called you have a high %age chance to hit your hand. It is the combination of these two results that give this play its value.
Joe missed the boat IMO because the flop bet he made didn't give him any fold equity. It just sweetened the pot. He is probably getting no one to fold an over pair with this bet. So in effect he pot committed himself to a coinflip.
This play is pretty thin.
Joe has said that he is not at all interested in what his cards were, he is playing position and opponent. Okay, then let's look at that.
Position: Fantastic (good)
Opponent: Decent read, know him to be able to fold to playback on the flop. (good or bad)
Discounting your cards then, let's look at the facts:
Chip stack: He has you covered (bad)
Villain's action: He raised - UTG - probably has a decent hand. (bad)
History: You've been able to push him off pots previously (see below)
Flop: The texture is pretty good to bluff, not likely that he hit the 9 high board
New info:
Villain bets again (showing strength, but could be a continuation bet) - bad
YOUR IMAGE - REASONABLY TIGHT... means you've probably not hit either - bad
Your HISTORY: You've pushed him off several hands - he's probably tired of this and if he has a hand he's willing to go to war with - he will (VERY BAD)
Villain pushes all in after your re-raise (bad)
Now, what's going on... we're back to cards - completely against what your plan was.
The (biggest) problem with this hand is that although you had the intentions of outplaying your opponent, it boiled down to who had what cards - which is a battle that 73 is going to lose against KK more often than not. Further, if you''re "playing the player", you have to account for the player's current mental state as well, not just his overall deameanor of "tight ABC" player, he is now "ABC player who's sick of this s#$t".
Sure, mathematically you were ahead due to your outs, but only about 55%... Sure, mathematically it's the right play, but this is a tournament, your lifeline is your chips.
Ask yourself this, if someone pushed all in in front of you, had you covered, and you *KNEW* they had KQs, would you call with A2o?
Mark