Blinds are about to go up...

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DataMn;299609 wroteYes - because as I stated earlier, the more they tighten up, the better it is for you.

In the one example I started with 18% of hands and went to 3.3% as the break-even point, so for them to go from 30% to 3.3% means that they have tightened up to the point where it is profitable for you.

so then someone has to argue that he opens less or calls wider?

and im guessing we can have him opening like 28% and calling 4.5%....but I think I can argue for 30/3.5 nonetheless.

Richard~

I think you're wasting your time. A 3,5% calling range cannot possibly be accurate

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Richard~;299611 wroteI think you're wasting your time. A 3,5% calling range cannot possibly be accurate

how far off do you think it is for a weak player

compuease

darbday;299612 wrotehow far off do you think it is for a weak player

Their aren't THAT many weak players...

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compuease;299614 wroteTheir aren't THAT many weak players...

but we know hes not a winning reg...its likely hes a weak player...very likely

compuease

darbday;299615 wrotebut we know hes not a winning reg...its likely hes a weak player...very likely

So are you claiming that 96.5% of the time he's folding? Really? Do you believe that?

Just fold, much better spots, almost all of them... :)

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compuease;299618 wroteSo are you claiming that 96.5% of the time he's folding? Really? Do you believe that?

I think i loosely suggested 4/30 so about 90%

we have to put ranges up and let the math say tho, so how wide do you think a weak player calls?

and do you think any bw, any pair, and any ace is too loose for an opening range? I think it could be a little looser possibley

compuease;299618 wroteJust fold, much better spots, almost all of them... :smilie:

im going to take all of them too

Richard~

I think 3,5% is far off, like really far off. I don't think you can make him fold J10s here ever

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Richard~;299622 wrote I don't think you can make him fold J10s here ever

you think hes min raise calling jts?

Wetts1012

By your very definition you're getting called here.

Weak players dont min raise iso hands like j10 and jq.

They min raise iso hands that call you almost always.

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Wetts1012;299652 wroteBy your very definition you're getting called here.

...maybe not tho

Wetts1012;299652 wrote
Weak players dont min raise iso hands like j10 and jq.

They min raise iso hands that call you almost always.

I think that changes when the player beside them is all in with less than a bb.

qj and jt are debatable but i think hands like a7s and 66 he generally min raises

so then you think his opening range is more like 10 percent or less?

Richard~

you just said you believed he might be minraising 30% and calling only a couple so if he's minraising most of his range it should contain a lot of j10 hands.

again, not sure if it's been said enough in this thread but frankly you have to be a pretty bad spewy player just to consider trying this

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Richard~;299657 wroteyou just said you believed he might be minraising 30% and calling only a couple so if he's minraising most of his range it should contain a lot of j10 hands.

here he only has 4 combos... range is like 28percent or something, but i picked a wide range so we could eyeball the math and see if its conceivable. I wonder if 20 percent is profitable...
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Richard~;299657 wroteagain, not sure if it's been said enough in this thread but frankly you have to be a pretty bad spewy player just to consider trying this

thats the weird thing tho because I am considering it, and im admittedly not the best and maybe not very good but i have one of the higher roi's for a 24 tabler in this field.
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Richard~

those are really good results and better than mine for sure. But until I see some math I'll definitely think you're outleveling yourself greatly. my guess would be that this guy won't call you tighter than any pair and decent suitec connector or any suited ace

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Wetts1012;299652 wroteBy your very definition you're getting called here.

Weak players dont min raise iso hands like j10 and jq.

They min raise iso hands that call you almost always.

Richard~;299661 wrote. my guess would be that this guy won't call you tighter than any pair and decent suitec connector or any suited ace

these two quotes are contradictory....

Vekked

please god god god don't shove here.

firstly being forced to win a showdown for part of the pot vastly reduces our equity.

secondly you would need a read so insanely good that they're never r/c'ing here.

thirdly their range should be tighter than usual since they're forced to showdown here.

fourthly we have the nut worse hand to shove here.

fifthly we barely have any fold equity.

sixthly when they call we're drawing so dead.

seventhly we'll never be able to reship light again.

eighthly your read would have to be SO SO SO SO accurate to do this. I'd start with shoving whatever's profitable given his PFR + a calling range of AJ+/77+ and go from there. if you see him only showing up with better hands when he calls then jam more. basically you don't want to make -EV reshoves and find out that they're -EV and tighten up, you want to make +EV reshoves and widen up as your read gets better. Not only will you burn heaps of money vs. a lot of people doing it the other way around, but if someone sees you jam 42o, they start calling way looser, so then 76s becomes -EV, or A2s or hands that would otherwise be +EV. So you'll have to tighten up heaps just to get to the point where you're making +EV reships, and probably just punt equity in the process.

seventhly icm suicide.

I'm 99% sure that you're assigning yourself wayyy too much fold equity if you're saying like AQ+/99+ is too loose 9BB effective. Sure a couple people might muck TT and AQ here, but some people will call A8 and 44 here. You can't just jam because it's +EV vs. the nittiest players on the face of the internet, absolutely lean towards being slightly cautious if anything in these spots because it's just such a big mistake when you're wrong, and barely +EV when you're right.

[deleted]

Just have to say before this entire thread goes to hell, that we were hoping you would provide us insight on the 3bet shove math. Especially what range you think is +ev to shove here

Vekked;299831 wrotefirstly being forced to win a showdown for part of the pot vastly reduces our equity.

1/10 of a bbs tho vs atc., i don't know the math on that though

Vekked;299831 wrotesecondly you would need a read so insanely good that they're never r/c'ing here.

see this isn't fair because its a total exaggeration isn't it?

Vekked;299831 wrotethirdly their range should be tighter than usual since they're forced to showdown here.

I don't think showing down changes their min open range, if it does its very very slight

Vekked;299831 wrotefourthly we have the nut worse hand to shove here.

ya i wish i didn't post the hole cards, but having the worst hand doesn't matter vs a lot of min/calling ranges

Vekked;299831 wrotefifthly we barely have any fold equity.

this is largely the same thing as point 3

Vekked;299831 wrotesixthly when they call we're drawing so dead.

haha you said this already

Vekked;299831 wrote seventhly we'll never be able to reship light again.

i think this is the least valid point of all these....nobody is adjusting in the entire field....its a negligible amount of people...the best regs are non note taking multitablers...the rest will never understand how

Vekked;299831 wrote eighthly your read would have to be SO SO SO SO accurate to do this.

I don't think this is right to say either, well i have to see the math exactly but there are many different combos of min opening/calling that would make this > 0 ev.....they may not be plausible but i don't think we need "accuracy" here....and I think this point confuses people into thinking that villain needs to not show up with aces to shove correctly here

Vekked;299831 wrote I'd start with shoving whatever's profitable given his PFR + a calling range of AJ+/77+ and go from there. if you see him only showing up with better hands when he calls then jam more. basically you don't want to make -EV reshoves and find out that they're -EV and tighten up, you want to make +EV reshoves and widen up as your read gets better.

yes but we aren't talking about a certain player...we are talking about a 'player profile' and ive shoved +ev ranges on this profile for like 16k games

Vekked;299831 wroteNot only will you burn heaps of money vs. a lot of people doing it the other way around, but if someone sees you jam 42o, they start calling way looser, so then 76s becomes -EV, or A2s or hands that would otherwise be +EV. So you'll have to tighten up heaps just to get to the point where you're making +EV reships, and probably just punt equity in the process.

this doesn't apply to this hand at all, no one is watching, and the likely hood of having another light 3bet jam spot in this game is almost nil....it also assumes other regs adjust and they don't

Vekked;299831 wrote seventhly icm suicide.

we are at a flat part of the payout structure, although there is some slight icm effect, my understanding is it can't be called icm suicide. However the icm presence of being close to the ft will def effect villains calling range.

Vekked;299831 wroteI'm 99% sure that you're assigning yourself wayyy too much fold equity if you're saying like AQ+/99+ is too loose 9BB effective. Sure a couple people might muck TT and AQ here, but some people will call A8 and 44 here.

but in general, they call really tight and at the final two tables almost NEVER with a8s and 44

Vekked;299831 wrote absolutely lean towards being slightly cautious if anything in these spots because it's just such a big mistake when you're wrong, and barely +EV when you're right.

but right about shoving or about the ranges we've assigned our opponent?

This is the best I could do I might mess around with some math before my grind

this doesn't account for antes, and the calling range is way too wide at 66+, a9s+, kq+, ato+

but it also doesn't account for the bb whos range I think is JJ, AK+. It may be slightly wider sometimes, but he may fold ako sometimes too.

with an opening range of 20% 42o is breakeven

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Richard~

darbday;299839 wrote
but in general, they call really tight and at the final two tables almost NEVER with a8s and 44

this is such bs, all you're doing right now is trying to mold the villain to fit the play instead of the play to fit the villain, Sherlock Holmes would never talk to you again

Edit: I've said this in many ways but shoving here is like crossing your fingers and going "please be the worst player on the planet, please be the worst player on the planet"

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Richard~;299842 wrotethis is such bs, all you're doing right now is trying to mold the villain to fit the play instead of the play to fit the villain, Sherlock Holmes would never talk to you again

edit: i see that part about contradicting wasn't really correct i misunderstood what wetts was sayin

however I will accept the fact that mtt players won't min fold here and 180 turbo rec player do

edit: but i like how your still making jokes....we aren't anywhere near done the math here and i hope we can still have a conversation before people just start calling me stupid

Richard~

poker is poker, 180 mans are extremely similar to mtts in structure and payouts. There's really no math to be done, you claim people will fold non nut hands and I claim they won't, not sure how math changes that

Edit: Also, it's not really contradictory, if I were to accept that villain isn't raisecalling marginal hands as in "villain is not raising marginal hands in the first place" then I don't see what we're hoping to fold out at all

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