DataMn;299598 wroteHere's the math...
MP2 could have been raising with the top 50% of hands
(33+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o+,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o)
and could then tighten up to the top 12.5% of hands
(77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+)
and still it would not be profitable for your shove.
The tighter they are making the initial raise, the worse it gets.
If they did the initial raise with the top 40% of hands
(44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T9o)
They could tighten up to the top 9% of hands
(88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo)
and still it would be right on the borderline for your shove.
(The more they tighten up, the better it is for you - the increased win% does not make up for the fold equity).
At the other end, they could start with the top 18.2% of hands
(66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+)
and tighten up to an absolutely nitty 3.3% of hands to your shove
(99+,AQs+)
and still would be spot on giving you the wrong odds for your shove.
NOTE - These calculations were done assuming the Big Blind was going to fold. You probably have to lessen them even more to account for the possibility of the Big Blind waking up to a monster too.
Just fold.
your calling ranges are way too loose i think, 99+ aq+ is better but still a little loose in this spot i think.
hes opening any ace any bw any pair i think at least..
the bb range is going to be an over over call too so i think will fold aqo lots and tank hard with jj
i can't do the math for this yet :-\
