darbday;299839 wrote
[ATTACH]1081[/ATTACH]
Darb, it's like you're assuming I've never done reshove calcs in my life or something. I didn't do them here because I'm still at fallsview and on a mac so I don't even have pokerstove let alone any other software that would help, but I've done heaps of calculations on reshoves and there's rarely a spot to reship >30% of hands. It's obvious why you're coming to the conclusion that reshipping might be +EV here, because you went down the list of reasons why I said you shouldn't, and said none of them are true. Clearly if this was correct then it would be a reship, but I don't think it's correct at all, no math in the world is going to be able to show you that 90% of people just aren't folding AJ/77+ to a 9BB shove, and many will call looser. You can't just look at the tightest range someone will show up with and assume that's their range, you have to make some sort of average that has a balance of the times people fold AQ and the times people call A5 here.
Re: ICM suicide. In any situation where we're making a -cEV play when ICM is a consideration (even in a flat payout structure ICM is at least going to make all breakeven cEV plays -$EV, and slightly +cEV plays breakeven, therefore we shouldn't take them) it's ICM suicide. Like I said I can't provide exact math right now, but I can provide this (and it's probably all that's needed to prove your play is -EV). Your calculations in the above prove that jamming 42o under those assumptions is ~breakeven if we're reshipping 9BB on someone with those ranges without the shorty all in. The fact that we have to show down with the micro stack and only have 33% equity in the main pot vs. ATC reduces our EV in the pot by almost a full BB (1400 chips). So not only are we making a hugely -EV shove (losing a full BB just from cEV is obviously really bad in a spot we're only risking 9BB, and many people argue over whether we should even be taking +cEV plays if they're much less than +cEV by 1SB), but when you throw ICM on top of it you're just burning money.
So basically if you do your calculations like you did above and come up with a range that you're actually winning 1BB on average when you jam 42o, your play becomes breakeven with the shorty, and still not one you would take. I'm not sure what ranges would achieve that, would be interested to see though.
