Fwiw, I think Datamn had the best post in the thread so far, when I get home I'll try to do a similar thing with some ranges I think are accurate and see what I come up with. I'm not sure whether he accounted for the micro stack being all in or not either.
Disagee. Haven't you ever seen someone make a call/play that seems absurd? Let alone a call that is completely standard, lol. I wouldn't say they call >50% with those hands, but I think 55 calls like 1/3 of the time, and JTs 1/5 of the time or something. Even old live nits call reshoves with stuff like 55 every once in a while because a certain % of players just over value specific hands, small pairs and suited broadways are exactly some of those hands.
Marginal means the play could be +EV or could be -EV, I highly doubt that taking all spots that you're not sure whether they're +EV or not is what is required to have a top roi. Probably just taking all +EV spots and passing on marginal ones is optimal. Unless you're using marginal in the sense that it's very slightly +EV, in which case I don't think marginal is the right word (a lot of people do use marginal in this sense though and it tilts me to no end, lol, +EV =/= marginal).
Fwiw, I think Datamn had the best post in the thread so far, when I get home I'll try to do a similar thing with some ranges I think are accurate and see what I come up with. I'm not sure whether he accounted for the micro stack being all in or not either.
this im looking forward to because ill learn from it
no i didn't miss it i read it and pm'd you to say i meant no disrespect by attempting to post my explanation of my 3bet calcs
but i can't really comment on the rest until i see what kind of numbers you come up with
the calcs i posted or the image you quoted that i posted don't include antes and don't have a tight enough calling range for villain imo
The most important part was how significant of an effect an all-in stack has on our EV, even when it's only a fraction of an SB. Since we have to still beat him to win the ~2100 in the main pot, that takes around 1400 out of the pot/our EV when we shove, which is relatively huge.
Whatever his normal calling range would be getting 2/1. I assume he sighcalls alot of those hands.
i don't think there is any way a rec player/non reg, min/sigh calls a marginal hand on any consistent basis in a 3 bet pot near a final table bubble with 9ishbbs eff
i guess i'm being repetitive in this respect and that my logic breaks down if thats how we feel...but i didn't even think it was near a question of whether or not his min raise range is wide and his calling range tight
i do agree like vekked said tho that he sigh calls some % of some marginal hands
The most important part was how significant of an effect an all-in stack has on our EV, even when it's only a fraction of an SB. Since we have to still beat him to win the ~2100 in the main pot, that takes around 1400 out of the pot/our EV when we shove, which is relatively huge.
ah ....i didn't realize that just a thought then....can we simulate that by taking out the antes?
Keep in mind ive played 1/10th of turbos in my life that youve played this month.
IMO the r/f ranges applied in this thread are completely fucked. But life could be different in turbo world.
I mean non regs in a standard MTT with 13 BB stacks are r/f here almost never. So their opening range almost exactly mimics their calling range. Take into account they have to showdown and the effective stacks behind....
If there is that much difference in non regs ranges (ie they frequently r/f 8bb effective? How about 6?) in turbos then Im open to being sold here.
I wonder if you'll agree his min raise range is wider than ever here, and his 3bet calling range is tighter than usual because of the ft bubble and his "hand in cookie jar reaction"....
Maybe cookie jar is the metaphor....he sees the cookie jar, looks down at a5s ....min raises hoping to take down a bunch of dead money....and snap folds to a shove.....
its lame to use this vs. hs regs like you and vekked but i think it should hold some merrit-that I have almost 20k games in this field...
and the ranges we can debate....but him folding to a 9bbs shove is STD!
And ya still more interested in seeing the math because when I posted it I thought my ranges could be a little off but never that he has a small folding range.
Edit: Also I think that really its regs that will have nut heavy polarized ranges here....shoving all there marginal stuff and min-ing their nuts and a few weak hands.
and the ranges we can debate....but him folding to a 9bbs shove is STD!
No doubt you've played these more than I have but I have dabbled a fair bit lately and I could not disagree more with this. With the relative parity in those stacks no one is min raise folding.
No doubt you've played these more than I have but I have dabbled a fair bit lately and I could not disagree more with this. With the relative parity in those stacks no one is min raise folding.
the first thing you have to consider is whether or not youre talking about different kinds of spots or the same kind where an uber short stack is all in and the first to act with a reasonable raise fold stack, who is not a reg, min raises near but not on the ft bubble.....and im serious because if you don't filter your past hh's for this then its not the same imo....
2ndly this hh below contradicts what you are saying esp since sicklo is a winning reg and he still folds a similar stack size and he has a bigger stack to start and its nowhere near a bubble....
just to show we do have fold equity with this stack size.... sicklo is one of the best at these stakes....
PokerStars Hand #75416859524: Tournament #515210896, $2.28+$0.22 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level X (300/600) - 2012/02/11 12:44:53 ET
Table '515210896 4' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: verdasko4444 (1263 in chips)
Seat 3: REEBS77 (4996 in chips)
Seat 4: Cursed Poker (7370 in chips)
Seat 5: giannakis83 (4872 in chips)
Seat 6: SmallKindB (5590 in chips)
Seat 8: sicklopedia (17450 in chips)
Seat 9: halkidiki (9141 in chips) is sitting out
verdasko4444: posts the ante 50
REEBS77: posts the ante 50
Cursed Poker: posts the ante 50
giannakis83: posts the ante 50
SmallKindB: posts the ante 50
sicklopedia: posts the ante 50
halkidiki: posts the ante 50
REEBS77: posts small blind 300
Cursed Poker: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to REEBS77 [7c Ac]
giannakis83: folds
SmallKindB: folds
sicklopedia: raises 672 to 1272
halkidiki: folds
verdasko4444: calls 1213 and is all-in
REEBS77: raises 3674 to 4946 and is all-in
halkidiki has returned
Cursed Poker has timed out
Cursed Poker: folds
Cursed Poker is sitting out
Cursed Poker has returned
sicklopedia: folds
Uncalled bet (3674) returned to REEBS77
and lastly ive played 20k games and i think your crazy for thinking that people don't raise fold 9bbs eff constantly
edit: also that I think if this ends up being even remotely plausible then I'll be able to show you why you don't see how much fe we have
edit2: also ..do you have alot of regs marked? because if you don't then you can't filter your data correctly
No doubt you've played these more than I have but I have dabbled a fair bit lately and I could not disagree more with this. With the relative parity in those stacks no one is min raise folding.
People min raise/fold all day long, often because their hand is strong enough to min raise and iso the shorty but their hand isnt strong enough to call a bigger stack moving in over top
People min raise/fold all day long, often because their hand is strong enough to min raise and iso the shorty but their hand isnt strong enough to call a bigger stack moving in over top
no no...not this.....^^^this is what good reg's might do.....
people don't min raise fold a lot.....but in this spot, non regs do i believe.
People min raise/fold all day long, often because their hand is strong enough to min raise and iso the shorty but their hand isnt strong enough to call a bigger stack moving in over top
Of course they do, but not in this spot for T$230 chips.
Ok this is my best attempt to get it started.....I'm hoping its readable and correct enough that someone can fix any small errors....
Villain min raise range @ 21.4 (33+, All BW except JTo, QTo, A3s+, A6o+)
Villain call range @ 5.3 (TT+, AQ+, some 99, some Ajs, Some KQS)
Ev Villain Calls Hero's Stack - ((HeroEqvs.Villain(Total pot -Side pot) + 3wayEq(Side pot)) X %Villain calls
Ev Villain Folds (Total pot - side pot) + HeroEqvs.Shorty(Side pot)
X % Villain Folds
math is idiotic. well, not really but definitely in this situation. You can always make the math fit your play if you tweak villains ranges enough but those ranges are what we're not accepting in this thread, not the fact that you can count anything home.
Vekked made what I think was a very good point. It's not that villains range is set in stone, he'll call AA very close to 100% of the time but as you go down the handrange he'll callt hands less and less but he'll definintely still click call some % of the time. you're making it sound like villain is a predictable machine while in reality he's an extremely volatile entity
You can always make the math fit your play if you tweak villains ranges enough but those ranges are what we're not accepting in this thread, not the fact that you can count anything home.
I think we can tweak them some and they'll still be reasonable to start to consider a shove, but still need someone to confirm the math.
Vekked made what I think was a very good point. It's not that villains range is set in stone, he'll call AA very close to 100% of the time but as you go down the handrange he'll callt hands less and less but he'll definintely still click call some % of the time.
I don't think that was his point. We can Simulate a mixed range by selecting certain combos of hands in villains range. But adding hands villain doesn't often call is like adding decimals to a whole number, it effect it less and less as we get further from AA.
But villains range is set in stone, throwing in mixed hands doesn't change that. We can use different scenarios to check our err% tho.
you're making it sound like villain is a predictable machine while in reality he's an extremely volatile entity
No this Im not doing. We need to approximate a range, his volatility is in the there. Also to point it that this is what we do and its how we make money. Villain are not volatile, they are predictable.
See Im out here. I cant accept villain tank calls 99 and folds a10s and 88 (among other weaker hands).
wetts i have never seen a weak player min call ats on a final table bubble that I can recall in a turbo 180 other than the odd call that would put less than 5% of ats in his calling range.
I certainly haven't seen anything weaker min call enough to even consider putting it in his calling range.
but we're arguing back and forth there and I think its fine
I left out some suited aces, some offsuit aces and 22 from his opening range. I also left out any bluff in his min opening range....and that I thought his opening range is a little wider than 21%
But I just want to show that its reasonable to 'consider', so again whether the math is right or someone else can do it.
I think it's obvious what we disagree on by now. Go ahead and shove every hand if you want, if we don't agree on the premises we'll never reach the same conclusion. and the premise I don't agree on is that villain has a large raisefolding range here, if he did you'd obviously be right to shove but that's far to facy play sydrome for me and I think you're simply wrong
Yeah I def think there is some more pairs and suited aces in their calling ranges on average Darb. Not many, but a few extra I think. Some people might be this tight though I'd find it hard to believe that without any notes you would have THAT good a read on someone when your 25 tabling. Even with batman's skills. but if you have notes on the villian already, then I can dig it.
Furthermore, and aside from mathematically it being barely +EV at the best of times, I think the main reason I dont like shoving here is that it will most definitely affect how the fish react to your shoves for the remainder of this game. You said they wont react to reshoves spots cus there wont be any more in this game, however they will react in other ways, like calling your open shoves lighter (which we don't want). Remember most of the fish play only one or two tables, so they do watch. Mostly watch for the wrong things, but they watch. And they usually dont understand the difference between this spot and an open shove.
Whereas if you can keep your 'tightish' image, they will fold way way way too much. its a delicate balance and I think shoving this wide (everytime the scenario presents itself) will ultimately ruin your image, whether its +EV or not.
Comments
this i get but i can't answer
this im looking forward to because ill learn from it
but i can't really comment on the rest until i see what kind of numbers you come up with
the calcs i posted or the image you quoted that i posted don't include antes and don't have a tight enough calling range for villain imo
but i don't know why you are asking you know that you are too good of player for me to assign the ranges that i did vs this player right?
edit: in other words...vs. you i expect i have zero fold equity
Whatever his normal calling range would be getting 2/1. I assume he sighcalls alot of those hands.
The most important part was how significant of an effect an all-in stack has on our EV, even when it's only a fraction of an SB. Since we have to still beat him to win the ~2100 in the main pot, that takes around 1400 out of the pot/our EV when we shove, which is relatively huge.
i guess i'm being repetitive in this respect and that my logic breaks down if thats how we feel...but i didn't even think it was near a question of whether or not his min raise range is wide and his calling range tight
i do agree like vekked said tho that he sigh calls some % of some marginal hands
You can simulate it by finding a +1BB range to shove 42o against.
i did convice the 3bet calc owner to add antes and ability to put tighter calling ranges tho so hopefully that helps
but hoping you post a bunch of math on this spot too or especially the hand you figure is breaking even
Keep in mind ive played 1/10th of turbos in my life that youve played this month.
IMO the r/f ranges applied in this thread are completely fucked. But life could be different in turbo world.
I mean non regs in a standard MTT with 13 BB stacks are r/f here almost never. So their opening range almost exactly mimics their calling range. Take into account they have to showdown and the effective stacks behind....
If there is that much difference in non regs ranges (ie they frequently r/f 8bb effective? How about 6?) in turbos then Im open to being sold here.
i wouldn't do this with 6bbs and not likely 8...but yes the ranges are vastly different than mtt here i think
keep in mind that villain has no idea he is pot committing him self and that this is what he sees...
Attachment not found.
I wonder if you'll agree his min raise range is wider than ever here, and his 3bet calling range is tighter than usual because of the ft bubble and his "hand in cookie jar reaction"....
Maybe cookie jar is the metaphor....he sees the cookie jar, looks down at a5s ....min raises hoping to take down a bunch of dead money....and snap folds to a shove.....
its lame to use this vs. hs regs like you and vekked but i think it should hold some merrit-that I have almost 20k games in this field...
and the ranges we can debate....but him folding to a 9bbs shove is STD!
And ya still more interested in seeing the math because when I posted it I thought my ranges could be a little off but never that he has a small folding range.
Edit: Also I think that really its regs that will have nut heavy polarized ranges here....shoving all there marginal stuff and min-ing their nuts and a few weak hands.
No doubt you've played these more than I have but I have dabbled a fair bit lately and I could not disagree more with this. With the relative parity in those stacks no one is min raise folding.
2ndly this hh below contradicts what you are saying esp since sicklo is a winning reg and he still folds a similar stack size and he has a bigger stack to start and its nowhere near a bubble....
and lastly ive played 20k games and i think your crazy for thinking that people don't raise fold 9bbs eff constantly
edit: also that I think if this ends up being even remotely plausible then I'll be able to show you why you don't see how much fe we have
edit2: also ..do you have alot of regs marked? because if you don't then you can't filter your data correctly
People min raise/fold all day long, often because their hand is strong enough to min raise and iso the shorty but their hand isnt strong enough to call a bigger stack moving in over top
See you at the tables.
people don't min raise fold a lot.....but in this spot, non regs do i believe.
Of course they do, but not in this spot for T$230 chips.
OMG srsly?
Villain min raise range @ 21.4 (33+, All BW except JTo, QTo, A3s+, A6o+)
Villain call range @ 5.3 (TT+, AQ+, some 99, some Ajs, Some KQS)
Ev Villain Calls Hero's Stack - ((HeroEqvs.Villain(Total pot -Side pot) + 3wayEq(Side pot)) X %Villain calls
Ev Villain Folds (Total pot - side pot) + HeroEqvs.Shorty(Side pot)
X % Villain Folds
Villain Calls (5.3/21.4 = 24.77% of the time)
Villain : 75.294% { TT+, 9c9d, 9d9h, AQs+, AcJc, AdJd, KcQc, KdQd, AQo+
Hero : 24.706% { 42o }
Villain: 50.474% { TT+, 9c9d, 9d9h, AQs+, AcJc, AdJd, KcQc, KdQd, AQo+
Hero: 21.266% { 42o }
Shorty: 28.260% { random }
HeroEqvs.Villain(Total pot -Side pot) + 3wayEq(Side pot)
.24706( 2510 + 12819(2)) + .21266(2120))
.24706(28148) + .21266(2120))
6954.24488 + 450.8392)
7405.08
(Hero's Stack - 7405.08) X .2477
(13049 - 7405.08) X .2477
1398
Villain Folds (100 - 24.77 = 75.234%)
Hero: 33.200% { 42o }
Shorty: 66.800% { random }
(Total pot - side pot) + HeroEqvs.Shorty(Side pot) X % Villain Folds
(2400 + .332(1890)).75234
2277.69
2277.69 - 1398 = 879.69
.
Vekked made what I think was a very good point. It's not that villains range is set in stone, he'll call AA very close to 100% of the time but as you go down the handrange he'll callt hands less and less but he'll definintely still click call some % of the time. you're making it sound like villain is a predictable machine while in reality he's an extremely volatile entity
See Im out here. I cant accept villain tank calls 99 and folds a10s and 88 (among other weaker hands).
I think we can tweak them some and they'll still be reasonable to start to consider a shove, but still need someone to confirm the math.
I don't think that was his point. We can Simulate a mixed range by selecting certain combos of hands in villains range. But adding hands villain doesn't often call is like adding decimals to a whole number, it effect it less and less as we get further from AA.
But villains range is set in stone, throwing in mixed hands doesn't change that. We can use different scenarios to check our err% tho.
No this Im not doing. We need to approximate a range, his volatility is in the there. Also to point it that this is what we do and its how we make money. Villain are not volatile, they are predictable.
I certainly haven't seen anything weaker min call enough to even consider putting it in his calling range.
but we're arguing back and forth there and I think its fine
I left out some suited aces, some offsuit aces and 22 from his opening range. I also left out any bluff in his min opening range....and that I thought his opening range is a little wider than 21%
But I just want to show that its reasonable to 'consider', so again whether the math is right or someone else can do it.
Furthermore, and aside from mathematically it being barely +EV at the best of times, I think the main reason I dont like shoving here is that it will most definitely affect how the fish react to your shoves for the remainder of this game. You said they wont react to reshoves spots cus there wont be any more in this game, however they will react in other ways, like calling your open shoves lighter (which we don't want). Remember most of the fish play only one or two tables, so they do watch. Mostly watch for the wrong things, but they watch. And they usually dont understand the difference between this spot and an open shove.
Whereas if you can keep your 'tightish' image, they will fold way way way too much. its a delicate balance and I think shoving this wide (everytime the scenario presents itself) will ultimately ruin your image, whether its +EV or not.