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Blinds are about to go up...
Poker Stars, $7.34 + $0.66 NL Hold'em Tournament, 800/1,600 Blinds, 150 Ante, 8 Players
JodaB. (SB): 14,799
BB: 26,348
UTG: 21,216
UTG+1: 380
MP1: 12,375
MP2: 21,534
CO: 15,391
BTN: 12,922
Pre-Flop: (3,600) 4
2
dealt to JodaB. (SB)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls 230 and is All-In, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to 3,200, 2 folds, JodaB
JodaB. (SB): 14,799
BB: 26,348
UTG: 21,216
UTG+1: 380
MP1: 12,375
MP2: 21,534
CO: 15,391
BTN: 12,922
Pre-Flop: (3,600) 4
2 dealt to JodaB. (SB)UTG folds, UTG+1 calls 230 and is All-In, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to 3,200, 2 folds, JodaB
Comments
We are OOP with such a marginal hand with about an average stack. Why would we want to go to war with such marginal holdings when we will have position next hand?
Edit - not to mention the big stack to your left in the BB. Doing anything here but folding is -ev unless you are guaranteed the raiser will fold.
I would lean towards the "if Joe Tehan can do it why can't I" award
Did you just say 42o is a marginal hand? And how can you assume 8~BB is avg stack?
8bb here is avg stack unless I read the top wrong....I didn't see multi-table tournament anywhere. And if it is a single table, Darb has an avg stack for the table.
And I use the word "marginal" loosely.
I def fold this. But id like to see the math on it. some villians have pretty large r/f ranges here and will only call our shove w the nuts. Even with that type of read though, I have doubts its large enough to warrant atc shove?
you're grasping at straws at best with that logic. Saying some villains have a large raisefold range to a 9 BB stack here is super optimistic and for it to be true villain would need like a -50% roi or something. We can't base our reasoning on villain being the biggest fish at the table
Like I said, I fold this 100%
At the $2 180s, I know a lot of the regs can and will iso the shortstack super wide knowing how much dead money there is in the blinds. Then they dont know wtf to do when they are shoved on with their Kx, Qx, 79s, 75s, etc cus they realize they have to call off half their stack.... You're right, we have no fold equity normally. But there are certain types of opp that I think we might just have some?
with that said, darb hasnt mentioned if he has any notes on this villian... and I dont play the 8s yet...
Steaks?
PokerStars Hand #75416859524: Tournament #515210896, $2.28+$0.22 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level X (300/600) - 2012/02/11 12:44:53 ET
Table '515210896 4' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: verdasko4444 (1263 in chips)
Seat 3: REEBS77 (4996 in chips)
Seat 4: Cursed Poker (7370 in chips)
Seat 5: giannakis83 (4872 in chips)
Seat 6: SmallKindB (5590 in chips)
Seat 8: sicklopedia (17450 in chips)
Seat 9: halkidiki (9141 in chips) is sitting out
verdasko4444: posts the ante 50
REEBS77: posts the ante 50
Cursed Poker: posts the ante 50
giannakis83: posts the ante 50
SmallKindB: posts the ante 50
sicklopedia: posts the ante 50
halkidiki: posts the ante 50
REEBS77: posts small blind 300
Cursed Poker: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to REEBS77 [7c Ac]
giannakis83: folds
SmallKindB: folds
sicklopedia: raises 672 to 1272
halkidiki: folds
verdasko4444: calls 1213 and is all-in
REEBS77: raises 3674 to 4946 and is all-in
halkidiki has returned
Cursed Poker has timed out
Cursed Poker: folds
Cursed Poker is sitting out
Cursed Poker has returned
sicklopedia: folds
Uncalled bet (3674) returned to REEBS77
i read this as shove???
I'm just nit picking here but we are about to negate position by shoving
but have you considered a 2.1678ish raise?
my logic is the same as reibs. And I know this field pretty well I think and most players have extremely tight calling ranges vs 3bet shoves, especially in spots like this.
I think many winning players will raise fold here
But hes likely not a winning reg and I think he does this with a giant range based on the stack sizes...not really suggesting yet that its big enough
notes just say 'IMBTMN'
.
MP2 could have been raising with the top 50% of hands
(33+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o+,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o)
and could then tighten up to the top 12.5% of hands
(77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+)
and still it would not be profitable for your shove.
The tighter they are making the initial raise, the worse it gets.
If they did the initial raise with the top 40% of hands
(44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T9o)
They could tighten up to the top 9% of hands
(88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo)
and still it would be right on the borderline for your shove.
(The more they tighten up, the better it is for you - the increased win% does not make up for the fold equity).
At the other end, they could start with the top 18.2% of hands
(66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+)
and tighten up to an absolutely nitty 3.3% of hands to your shove
(99+,AQs+)
and still would be spot on giving you the wrong odds for your shove.
NOTE - These calculations were done assuming the Big Blind was going to fold. You probably have to lessen them even more to account for the possibility of the Big Blind waking up to a monster too.
Just fold.
hes opening any ace any bw any pair i think at least..
the bb range is going to be an over over call too so i think will fold aqo lots and tank hard with jj
i can't do the math for this yet :-\
Bad read. Let the blind go and find a better spot.
I'm just telling you the "break even" points. You have to take it from there.
In the one example I started with 18% of hands and went to 3.3% as the break-even point, so for them to go from 30% to 3.3% means that they have tightened up to the point where it is profitable for you.
and im guessing we can have him opening like 28% and calling 4.5%....but I think I can argue for 30/3.5 nonetheless.
Their aren't THAT many weak players...
So are you claiming that 96.5% of the time he's folding? Really? Do you believe that?
Just fold, much better spots, almost all of them...
we have to put ranges up and let the math say tho, so how wide do you think a weak player calls?
and do you think any bw, any pair, and any ace is too loose for an opening range? I think it could be a little looser possibley
im going to take all of them too
Weak players dont min raise iso hands like j10 and jq.
They min raise iso hands that call you almost always.
I think that changes when the player beside them is all in with less than a bb.
qj and jt are debatable but i think hands like a7s and 66 he generally min raises
so then you think his opening range is more like 10 percent or less?