Isn't it always better to run it more than once when you are behind (small assumption with this flop action) and you still need to catch up?
Wait to hear from my high holiday buddy.
I think we've gone through this discussion before...
Running it X number of times lessens the VARIABILITY, but not the ODDS.
What you're doing is dividing the pot into chunks - and you will have to same odds to win each of those chunks.
If you ran it twice with a 40% chance of winning then you would lose it all 36% of the time, get your money back 48% of the time, and win both halves 16% of the time.
thanks for your input; I think my big mistake with this hand was not considering the player that was re-raising. He had called down light a few times so my fold equity was a lot less than anticipated. If he had pushed instead of raising $130 I likely could have folded. Only having commited $20 and now risking $580 on a big draw still needing to catch up. I thought by pushing, there was still a decent probability he would fold (likely the best hand).
Not many players are going to fold a hand once they commit $250 anyways I guess.
in a 2/5 cash game there is no way i fold an open-ended straight flush draw in this spot with only $600 to start the hand. This is essentially your original buy-in and in most cases you are a statistical favourite unless its a super-tight table.
I'd be shoving over top of the $250 every time.
The fact that you ended up drawing to one pure out + runner runner outs is very unfortunate and unlikely. If you're going to fold here just stop calling preflop with TJ suited.
Comments
Mark
I think we've gone through this discussion before...
Running it X number of times lessens the VARIABILITY, but not the ODDS.
What you're doing is dividing the pot into chunks - and you will have to same odds to win each of those chunks.
If you ran it twice with a 40% chance of winning then you would lose it all 36% of the time, get your money back 48% of the time, and win both halves 16% of the time.
(.36 * 0 + .48 * 0.5 + .16 * 1)/2 = .40 = (.60 * 0 + .40 * 1)
So - your chance of still having money goes up from 40% to 64%, but your chance of having ALL of the money goes down from 40% to 16%.
Not many players are going to fold a hand once they commit $250 anyways I guess.
Push and pray seems to be the consensus.
yes, but I wanted to know what the others had and who won
yes, but I wanted to know what the others had and who won
I dont remember OP posting any updates yet?
for the hand I mentioned.
I'd be shoving over top of the $250 every time.
The fact that you ended up drawing to one pure out + runner runner outs is very unfortunate and unlikely. If you're going to fold here just stop calling preflop with TJ suited.