KK and the Preflop Laydown
The following is based on No-Limit Hold’em but I would assume it would be even more difficult to do in Limit where you would have better odds to improve...so please read and give your thoughts.
Is it possible to fold Kings preflop? I have on many occasions run my Kings into Aces preflop “All-In†and usually (of course) end up losing. Now on some of those occasions I felt and sometimes felt very strongly that my opponent had Aces. Still I didn’t have it in me to fold my Kings. I can not remember a time when I have folded my Kings preflop.
Do I suck?? I can lay them down post flop when I think I’m beat but what about preflop?
Is it possible to fold Kings preflop? I have on many occasions run my Kings into Aces preflop “All-In†and usually (of course) end up losing. Now on some of those occasions I felt and sometimes felt very strongly that my opponent had Aces. Still I didn’t have it in me to fold my Kings. I can not remember a time when I have folded my Kings preflop.
Do I suck?? I can lay them down post flop when I think I’m beat but what about preflop?
Comments
...unless all of that, I think this is a good example of what Miller talks about when he says that studious players tend to overthink relatively rare situations and talk themselves into tight-weak play. Perhaps even an extreme example thereof.
In a regular game, especially a low limit game with non-studious players, 40%+ to the flop, chasers to double gutshots and people who are, not to put to fine a point on it, drunk right out of their gourds, folding kings, even failing to cap with kings, should be considered an error. You will win far more than your share of these pots, even multiway. If you can't get your money in with kings, you ought to have trouble getting it in with any hand.
If you haven't read Ed Miller, I would strongly advise it -- Lee Jones turns awful players into thinking players, but often Tight-Weak thinkers. Ed Miller can turn Lee Jones players into good players.
To put it another way - if you're a good player, you have a set of hands (larger than just AA!) with which you will cap/bet large preflop. All but AA are underdogs to KK, so even if you give your opponents credit for being every bit as good a player as you are, you ought STILL be pushing this hand. And if, I hear you asking, you give your opponents credit for being better than you? Well then I'm not sure why you're playing, but I know you're paying for lessons no matter what you do.
Great points Johnath!
I am talking about in tourney situations in which you think or feel very strongly that your opponent is on AA. In this situation I feel that your observation is wrong as tourney play is much more situational.
Still, maybe your right and discounting AA when you have KK preflop may be the better play. That's why I'm posting. To help me either continue to be unable to fold KK preflop or hear evidence to help me be able to fold it.
I think your question is really, how do I put my opponent on an exact hand. This is an important question as it does come up in tournament play. As you mention, it's something that's extremely hard to figure out. But with time and thousands of hours of playing you will know, and you can make the correct decision. I would read Howard Lederer's notes from the 2003 WSOP, where he figures out the Internet guy that has aces in a hand he's not in. The end result was that the Internet guy lost his chips to Kings when the king hit the river. But Howard knew he had aces.
Here's a hand where I knew my aces were beat at the flop. I went into check call mode, cause I didn't trust my read. One day I will. I think you will as well.
Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with As, Ad.
2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold.
Flop: (7 SB) Th, 5c, 3d (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Hero calls.
As soon as the CO capped, I knew he had the set. I'm not saying the cap is the automatic tell -- it was the overall play of the opponent that told me. I didn't have the odds to go any further and should have folded. But I didn't trust myself. So, I leaked 2BB!!!! In a tournament, this would have been disasterous.
Turn: (7.50 BB) 5d (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.
River: (9.50 BB) Qs (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.
Final Pot: 11.50 BB
Results below:
Hero has As Ad (two pair, aces and fives).
CO has 3h 3c (full house, threes full of fives).
Outcome: CO wins 11.50 BB.
Wrong. You aren't accounting for the situations where you call to the river and your opponent shows you AT. In order for you to leak the full 2BB, you'd have to have a 0% chance of ever winning that showdown, which also includes the times you spike the ace on the turn / river to beat him.
I dont think I can ever think of calling to the river with AA as a leak.
In tournament and on-line play people go all in with small pairs, AK-A10, 2 paint cards, Axs. As an example, let's say 95% of the time at least, you're at least 3 to 2 ahead, and maybe quite dominating. So on the same play in 10 tournaments, you'll bust out 5%(less the times you suck out) and about 25% of the time your opponent catches up... and double up70%. (Yeah I know, my exact figures are way off....)
As one of the guys already mentioned, a lot depends on relative stack size, prize structure/bubble. But if you pass up Kings, the others can just go all-in on you any time; how long are you going to wait for Aces? Also, with a short-handed table, or heads up, I'd never folds Kings.
Also, I think if I have the other guy covered, I'd never fold Kings... and if I'm short-stacked, when else can I double up? So what does that leave?
Magi has gotten to the point I was really trying to get at here. When can you let go a big hand when you know your beat. It is wrong to call when you know your beat. That is obvious but how do you lay it down. Exactly how Magithighs says...but like many of the tough concepts in poker and life for that matter it is easier said than done.
BBZ I think that your replying based on straight odds. I am going beyond that or trying to take my game to another level if you will. Sure it may be more profitable in the long run to call down to the river or all-in preflop but wouldn't be more profitable to be able to pick the times when your winning to put chips in and fold when your losing?
Toronto, I think you getting caught in the same line of thinking as BBC...I'm not talking about the odds your opponent has hand x when you have hand y. I'm talking about making the big folds when you know your monster is beat.
Look at Magithighs example he states that he had his opponent on a set and didn't fold...now if this was tourney play it would have cost him his tourney life. Odds of x vs y don't matter when you can not reload and keep playing.
Anyway it's late and I'm rambling. I hope that there more thoughts and suggestions put here.
This is what is wrong with this forum.
People post scenarios/hand histories whatever and they will only accept the answer that they want to hear. Johnath made some great points as the first response which perfectly apply to NL and you dismiss them. Torontoguy comes in and tells you the same thing, your opponents will play a huge variety of hands as if they had AA so how would you ever know? Again, you dismiss it. Then Magi comes along and tells you exactly what you want to hear 'Yes, I fold my overpairs all the time' and you think he's the second coming of Chan.
So my question, whats the point of querying the community for information when you are really not looking for an answer, but justification of your original idea?
...not way off at all... from pokerstove...
Hand 1: 79.8840 % [ 00.80 00.00 ] { KK }
Hand 2: 20.1160 % [ 00.20 00.00 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-KTs, QJs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo }
If CO is capable of making a pure bluff by capping the flop only 1 time in 9 then check/calling to the river becomes +EV. If he'll cap with only 2 pair, then you already have odds to call him down.
Yeah... but Magithighs ain't gonna be calling him down in a tourney because it's gonna cost him way more than 2BB. The posted hand is irrelavent to the coversation if your talking about no-limit tourneys.
Most folds of KK are gonna happen because of stack sizes, how close to the money you are, table conditions, etc. Rarely will they be laid down because you put your opp. on aces (unless your opponents gets in that re-re-re-re-raise preflop... that's just too many re's to be ignored
A relevant example (perhaps):
I get JJ in MP (no-limit B&M tourney, after rebuy and addon period has ended). I'm a liitle above avg stack with about 40BB. I open-raise for 3x BB... short stacked button moves all in for about 7BB, SB folds, then the BB moves all-in over the top... he's the table leader and has me covered. He's a good player and there are still plenty of weak ones at our table... This was an easy fold for me... even if I had KK, I probably toss it, but not because I think BB has the aces... no need to put my tourney on the line this early.
Of course he did have aces! but that's not the point!!
Not that rare!!!!
Like a moth to the bug zapper, here I go again.
This is what's wrong with you BBC. SJ posted a question asking for input. I listened to his question and tried to get at what he was asking, and happened to get to the heart of the matter. I wasn't trying to spew a whole bunch of stuff that "I" wanted to tell him, and how "I" was going to teach him the "right" way. I was merely trying to give him some of my thoughts.
The problem with YOU is that you don't listen. Great poker players listen with their ears, eyes, nose, instincts, hands. You my friend are only too happy to TELL people what you think. You'll never aspire to become a great poker player, employee or any other job that requires listening. Perhaps a job in one way broadcasting would suit you.
I provided my hand history not as an example of what to do in NL. It was an example of having a read, a very good read, and ignoring it. Truly great poker players are able to go with their reads. I'm not there yet, but I'm trying. I think that's what SJ was trying to get at. How do you listen to your read? Is your read every good enough to put someone on a specific hand?
I know people made fun of Phil Hellmuth laying down KK at this years WSOP. He is a GREAT player, no matter how you slice it. He can get good reads and is able to listen to them. That's another example, this time someone great going with their read, instead of someone mediocre (me), not going with thier read. I'm trying to learn how PH makes that laydown. You can mock him.
Cheers
Magi
Feel free to let me know what your music your hands like listening to.
Thats what you do when people ask for opinions. You give them.
Going back to your posted hand. Did you REALLY read him for a set? Or did you just read that top pair was no good? Be honest. Theres a HUGE difference because now we move from talking about putting a person onto one and only one hand, to putting someone on a wider range of hands.
When people ask for opinions you give them, hmmmm...I really don't think they ask to be talked down to, belittled, ridiculed, or many of the other things you do. Have a look at this month's Canadian Poker Player Magazine on players who want to turn pro. The main thing that separates the ones who make it is their introspective ability, which you have NONE. Believe me, it would serve you well, as I do think you have some grey matter to work with -- someone must have pissed in your cornflakes at an early age to develop your attitude though.
Back to my posted hand, I did read him for a set at minimum, quite possibly quads. I'm not looking to impress anyone with my reads -- lots of people can do that. My intent is to provide a REAL example of how difficult it is to get a read, and then listen to the read. It's a two-step process.
For the first step, AmyC's article on voyeurism is a great way of getting reads on players without having to pay for the privlege. It then gets easier when you're in the heat of battle.
For the second step, well that takes experience. And that was my point for SJ's question.
Cheers
Magi
That'll be the markings on the cards when you're being cheated. Or the fake chips which were dumped into the tournament. Use all your senses.
Cheers
Magi
Mike
Do me a favour. Look at every post you've ever made to me. All of them open with a one paragraph tirade about how I'm a jerk blah blah.. Do my posts ever reciprocate? Nope. Like I've said in previous posts, feel free to send me that garbage in a PM lets leave it off the boards.
I think I made a perfectly valid point about asking a question and only accepting one answer.
I think that people get so pre-occupied with folding under the poor assumption that folding = good play. There are times that you need to gamble (and KK isnt much of a gamble) and there are times when the proper play is to call down to the river (like in your posted hand history).
I calls them as I sees them. I have no interest in PMing you. The wonderfull thing about this forum, is we can always go to the tape and see what happened. SJ did not dismiss anyone, nor did he hail me as the second coming of Chan. In fact in an earlier post SJ was agreeing with some of the comments. And then you go on to dis the whole forum, of which I belong. I will continue to call this crap as long as I see it. You're doing it in public and I'm not going to call you on it in private. Adjust your attitude bud!
Cheers
Magi
I used to be a wizard at calculating odds. I can't see the odds of these relatively rare events BOTH happening being better than the odds of one of them happening.
Please show me how you worked this out. I'd like to learn the general principles.
P.S. It is sad that when you put someone on ignore, their text still appears in people's quotes. :frown: Magi is wise. (Pun fully intended.) If Chan were dead, he would be the second coming of him. Two thumbs up, baby!
My point is that aside from you and I, no one else gives a shit if we like each other or not. So theres no reason to keep polluting threads with it.
As to answer pkerface9s question (of which he can wait longer to read it since Im on his ignore) is that a pocketpair event has a 1 in 220 chance of occuring once. So the chance of it occuring over ten trials is 10 * 1/220 = 1/22 which is slightly wrong because you have to account for the king's not being in the deck anymore but 1/22 is close enough for discussion.
First... since we assume you already have KK.... there are 50 cards to get the aces from... so the odds of getting pocket aces becomes 4c2/50c2 or 6/1225, slightly better than the normal 1/221....
but you just can't multiply this 6/1225 by the number of opponents at the table.
here's the correct formula
= 1 - (1219/1225)^9 = .043228 = 4.3228%
= 1 - the odds of not getting aces raise to the 9th power
note... 4c2 means ways to choose 2 things from 4
so you can choose 2 aces from 4... 6 ways and deal 2 cards from 50... 1225 ways
Looking at my original calculations, I think that 1 in 40-50000 hands odds I came up with would be the odds of seeing a 2 player match with players having AA vs KK. 1 in 220 odds for the one pair by 1 in 220 odds for the other pair.
Allowing for a 10-player table, I guess you'd see about 1 hand in 5000 where there was KK vs AA. (1/220 * 1/220 * 10) Not very common at all. I guess that's why, when it happens, everyone starts shouting.
Now then, if you were sitting in EP with KK what are the odds someone else at the table has AA? I guess that would be 9 in 220 (9 * 1/220) which would be about the 1 in 23 that was quoted earlier. Now my question looks like a dumb one. :redface: It just seemed like this was such an extremely rare event. Does that make sense? Around 4%. Actually, when I'm holding KK, I don't mind those odds!
To recap my ramblings: Your odds of having KK are about 1 in 220 hands. If you are lucky enough to have that, at the same time, every other player has a 1 in 220 shot of holding AA so there's about a 1 in 23 shot of someone else at a 10-player table having AA. Multiply these two odds together and you get around 1 in 5000 chance of both AA and KK at the same table in the same hand. That brings me back to my earlier number. So now it all makes sense, at least to me. I love it when a plan comes together.
Getting back to the original question in this thread: Could I fold KK pre-flop? Online, it would be very difficult, unless the betting patterns really jumped out at you or you had a strong history of playing with the person to know exactly what their big bets mean in certain situations. In a live situation, it would be much easier since there are many more clues presented and past history also provides better clues. Still, there's only a 4% chance that guy has AA. What better odds do you need? Cloutier has written about a couple of times when he has folded KK to AA (note: he doesn't write about the times he folded to something less!). Also he has written about hands he has watched where he has identified someone betting AA. So, yes, it can be 'read' and a big laydown can be made. I just don't think it should be done very often. And probably not at the 'amateur' level. In other words, 'no'.
Here are some interesting stats to share: If you have KK and the person acting before you bets enough to put you all-in and you know that person would only do that with a type 1 Sklansky hand, you are still a 1.5 to 1 favourite heads-up. If he's the kind of player to push with QQ or JJ, you are over 4 to 1 to win. If you are desperate, it's an easy call. If you have a decent stack and the guy can put you out or put you on the critical list, this is not necessarily an automatic call. Most likely I'd call but...
Say you have two fairly tight players all-in in front of you. If you have 2 guys with type 1 Sklansky hands against your KK, you are only a slight favourite. If one of the guys would play type 1, 2 or 3 hands, then you are nearly 50% favourite to win. Those odds aren't nearly so good when you are out if you lose. So under these circumstances, I'd very seriously consider folding.
I'm just looking at approximations. Order of magnitude type calculations. The kind of thing like 'is it 1 in 10' (i.e. relatively common) or 'is it 1 in a million' (i.e. never happen)? I was happy using 4% as an approximation.
Thanks for sharing the math. I love knowing how to calculate this stuff from first principles. Just curious: do people actually calculate this stuff to this level of precision at the table or do they just approximate? Is this why it takes some people so friggin long to make a decision? :mad:
I ashamed to say I actually studied this stuff in university. :redface: In my defence, that was like 221 years ago. I'm not sure if cards were even invented at that point.
Yes… 4.96% of the time at a ten handed table, when you have KK, someone else has A-A (thank you Brian Alspach – I hope my memory is correct).
I damn near deleted a lot of this thread. Kids, play nice.
The original question is a good one: How can you fold KK pre-flop given that you feel really strongly that your opponent has AA?
A long time ago a Vancouver player by the name of Robert Copps taught me that "instinct can be trained." (or words like that).
If you are a good player you will, by definition, have good instincts. Yet, you MUST learn to trust yourself (voice of Obiwan: Use the force Luke). The more you trust yourself and are correct, the more you will trust yourself.
So, how do you fold KK pre-flop? Believe in your read. If you say to yourself, "I KNOW he has aces" then do not call in order to prove to yourself you are right. You KNOW you are right, so muck 'em.
It's hard to do. I rarely do it, but I have done it. And, I will do it again when the force tells me to. Sometimes I will be wrong, but the consequences of being wrong and folding aren't all that bad... you are still in the tournament.
he he, I use that same saying "Luke use the force". Must be a Canadian thing.
Cheers
Magi
As for the thread I started I really didn’t want to make it another pissing match between forum members. I was simply trying to see what different members thought of folding KK preflop and other monster hands when you really “feel†your beat.
Dave really hit the nail on the head say you have to “listen to the forceâ€. While I’m not sure if I have found the “force†I will keep looking. I truly believe that the ability of being able to fold when you know your beat is under-rated by many players. To often players justify a call or play by using the saying “the odds say it will only happen X% of the timeâ€. Well what if you can fold when X happens then you will be ahead nearly 100% of the time. I’m not saying this is even possible but why write it off as something rare and ignore it? In No-Limit Hold’em one mistake can cost you your stack (especially in tourneys where your stack is your life). I may be over analyzing small percentage plays (I don’t think so) but if any play can bust you I think it is worth discussion and thought.
As Dave said we need to play nice here. I was and am only trying to create interesting poker discussion. It doesn’t matter wether you agree or not but what makes a public forum work is everyone collaborating on what can be interesting ideas.
I summary I think I have a small dose of the “forceâ€, I hope that it gets stronger, and that I can listen to it when I “KNOW†it is correct. I also agree when you do not have a read then it a very easy decision to put your money in the middle with monster hands like KK.
Very tight player (who reads these forums
Big stack had roughly 6.5k chips in SB, I had 4000~, UTG who called had ~3500 chips.
The call threw alarm bells in my head, and also the SB's (who stated he wouldn't have put his extra 300 chips into that pot with at least a hand of QQ).
He claimed he was trapping me, but obviously I would have mucked the hand unless it was something playable (even in BB it was just too suspisious).
Moral of this story, I knew he was huge, I knew that when I pushed he would call, but I had to take a shot.
AA v KK ... River K ... so even if you're a huge underdog, all you need is a bit (ALOT) of luck
0.248% chance to win, I don't mind
Huh? Your ~18% to win with the KK vs. AA (depending on suits) preflop. Only way you'd be anywhere near to that big of dog would be if he flopped a set, and you needed running kings...
Personally, I can't BS myself, I know my game isn't good enough to be able to fold this hand preflop (unless maybe it was some unique tourney situation where I'm sitting micro stacked in 3rd with 2 big stacks already allin ahead of me). The day I can correctly make this fold is a date to be marked on the calender for sure... (Right up there with correctly calling an allin preflop bet with 7-2o vs I guy I KNOW I have dominated with 6-2 or worse)
I've found that players get mad when you reach over the table and look at their cards.
The only time you KNOW he's got it is when he shows it. Until then, all you've got is probability.
That and the other side to the whole thread...your read aka "the force". Any player at any level can tell you I thought or I knew they had hand X. The tough part...the part I am working at doing is listening to "the force" and folding rather then calling knowing I've already lost.
Why is this impossible to understand? I do not think you have to be a world class pro (since I am far from it) to be able to fold a monster of hand when you think your beat. Please help me understand why probability and odds are the only way to make poker decisions.