What exactly is fold equity? I have seen it in a couple posts and have no idea what it means
Cheers,
Steve
Fold equity is folding a few times to show your opponents that you can do it, so the next time you are raised and you re raise you make them think you actually have a hand.
A recap for those of you who may not be familiar with the term: Fold equity is the increase in expected value that comes from the possibility that my bet folds a better hand. To be a bit less cryptic, I’ll give this as an example:
I’m playing $.10/$.25 shorthanded NL hold ‘em, I have KQs, and raise to $.75 in middle position. Both blinds call. The flop comes J-9-4 rainbow. Both blinds check to me. This is a common scenario, of course. I have “unimproved overcards†(or “UI oversâ€), which is common with hands like AK, AQ, KQ etc. I also have a gutshot straight draw. Do I have the best hand right now? Possibly. The board has high enough cards that it’s probably more likely than not that someone hit a pair of jacks or nines, but there’s also a significant portion of the time that we all missed. However, anyone with a naked ace has me beat.
Here is where I can bet and take down the pot right away. In limit, this would very rarely happen; If I’ve raised preflop and get two callers, there are six bets in the pot and betting another small bet on the flop will not be much of an encouragement for anyone to fold. Sure, sometimes everyone folds the flop in limit as well, but in a raised pot that has more than two players in it, everyone folding except the bettor is the exception, not the norm.
So what’s the fold equity? Well, I have a couple of ways to win this pot:
1. I hit my inside straight draw. This is a draw to the nuts, so those are four solid outs.
2. I spike a queen or a king on the turn or river. These outs are far less strong, as someone could have Q9 or KJ or so, which kills half of them.
3. No one has an ace in their hands, and everyone missed the board so I can still win a showdown unimproved.
4. Someone did hit a pair or has an ace, but (incorrectly) fold to my flop bet and I take the pot down.
#4 is my “fold equityâ€: The expected value that comes from the chance that someone folds the best hand* and gives me the pot.
And Wikipedia has this to say....
Fold equity is a concept in poker strategy that is especially important when a player becomes short-stacked in a no limit (or possibly pot limit) tournament. It is the equity a player can consider him or herself likely to gain if he or she bets. It equates to:
Gain in equity if opponent(s) fold x likelihood that opponents fold
The first half of the equation is known because it is whatever share of equity the folding opponent has. The second cannot be known but must be figured out based on reads or previous actions.
It becomes an important concept for shortstacks for the following reason. Opponents can be considered likely to call all-ins with a certain range of hands. When they will have to use a large percentage of their stack to make the call, this range can be expected to be quite narrow (it will include all the hands the caller expects to win an all-in against the bettor). As the percentage of stack needed to call becomes lower, the range of cards the caller will need becomes wider, and he or she becomes less likely to fold. Consequently, fold equity diminishes. There will be a point at which a caller will need a sufficiently small percentage of their stack to call the all-in that they will do so with any two cards. At that point, the all-in bettor will have no fold equity
Fold equity is when your chip stack gets low in a tournament; it reaches a point that you don’t have enough chips to force an opponent into a difficult decision on whether to call your all in bet.
A good example is when you have 750 chips and your opponent has 10K..... he will (should) call with any 2 since losing to your doesn't hurt him and taking you out helps him. Against this opponent you have 0 fold equity. If your small blind same stack and the BB has the same stack then you have fold equity since you hurt him if he calls your bet assuming no one else in the pot.
Funny - we have a few different responses to this question.
The way I always understood fold equity was - never wait too long to make a move. The smaller your stack is in relation to the table, the greater the odds people will look you up. I think Harrington refers to this as the dead zone. When you are in it, you don't have fold equity.
Let's say even if you get Aces in the dead zone, and double or triple up, you are probably still short stacked and might not have fold equity. It's better to not wait for the big hand, pick the right spot (or so you think) and push all in with connected cards, Ace/Rag, low pair, or even any two if you have position and a good read on the table. Even if your hand might not be the best, it's still better to make a move when you have more chips, at least enough to make your opponents leery of calling, because it will sting them if they lose... you have more fold equity. People are less willing to call.
First, you must understand what equity is. Equity is the percentage chance of you winning the pot multiplied by the amount of money in the pot (or the amount of money that you expect will be in the pot) at any given point during the hand.
Now, suppose you bet and your opponent has correct odds to call, but folds instead. Your equity has increased because your opponent has made a mistake (the pot you win is higher than your expected share of the pot would have been had he called you). That change in equity, due to your opponent folding, is the fold equity.
Obviously, your equity increases if your opponent folds a better hand than you have.
But if your opponent correctly folds, your equity does not increase.
A simple example:
Let's say there is $20 in the pot and you bet $5 on the turn. You have a high pair and hold the winning hand at the moment, but (unknown to you) your opponent has 14 live outs (pair and flush draw) to beat you on the river. There are 44 unseen cards (this is NLHE), thus your chance of winning the pot at showdown is 30/44 = 68.2%.
For simplicity, let's ignore potential action on the river.
If he calls your turn bet, your equity is 68.2% of $30 (the size of the pot after the turn) = $20.45.
If he folds, you win the pot, which is $25.
The difference - $4.55 - is the fold equity. This shows that your opponent incorrectly folded, and you have made money on that fold.
Comments
Fold equity is folding a few times to show your opponents that you can do it, so the next time you are raised and you re raise you make them think you actually have a hand.
have fold equity.
A recap for those of you who may not be familiar with the term: Fold equity is the increase in expected value that comes from the possibility that my bet folds a better hand. To be a bit less cryptic, I’ll give this as an example:
I’m playing $.10/$.25 shorthanded NL hold ‘em, I have KQs, and raise to $.75 in middle position. Both blinds call. The flop comes J-9-4 rainbow. Both blinds check to me. This is a common scenario, of course. I have “unimproved overcards†(or “UI oversâ€), which is common with hands like AK, AQ, KQ etc. I also have a gutshot straight draw. Do I have the best hand right now? Possibly. The board has high enough cards that it’s probably more likely than not that someone hit a pair of jacks or nines, but there’s also a significant portion of the time that we all missed. However, anyone with a naked ace has me beat.
Here is where I can bet and take down the pot right away. In limit, this would very rarely happen; If I’ve raised preflop and get two callers, there are six bets in the pot and betting another small bet on the flop will not be much of an encouragement for anyone to fold. Sure, sometimes everyone folds the flop in limit as well, but in a raised pot that has more than two players in it, everyone folding except the bettor is the exception, not the norm.
So what’s the fold equity? Well, I have a couple of ways to win this pot:
1. I hit my inside straight draw. This is a draw to the nuts, so those are four solid outs.
2. I spike a queen or a king on the turn or river. These outs are far less strong, as someone could have Q9 or KJ or so, which kills half of them.
3. No one has an ace in their hands, and everyone missed the board so I can still win a showdown unimproved.
4. Someone did hit a pair or has an ace, but (incorrectly) fold to my flop bet and I take the pot down.
#4 is my “fold equityâ€: The expected value that comes from the chance that someone folds the best hand* and gives me the pot.
And Wikipedia has this to say....
Fold equity is a concept in poker strategy that is especially important when a player becomes short-stacked in a no limit (or possibly pot limit) tournament. It is the equity a player can consider him or herself likely to gain if he or she bets. It equates to:
Gain in equity if opponent(s) fold x likelihood that opponents fold
The first half of the equation is known because it is whatever share of equity the folding opponent has. The second cannot be known but must be figured out based on reads or previous actions.
It becomes an important concept for shortstacks for the following reason. Opponents can be considered likely to call all-ins with a certain range of hands. When they will have to use a large percentage of their stack to make the call, this range can be expected to be quite narrow (it will include all the hands the caller expects to win an all-in against the bettor). As the percentage of stack needed to call becomes lower, the range of cards the caller will need becomes wider, and he or she becomes less likely to fold. Consequently, fold equity diminishes. There will be a point at which a caller will need a sufficiently small percentage of their stack to call the all-in that they will do so with any two cards. At that point, the all-in bettor will have no fold equity
A good example is when you have 750 chips and your opponent has 10K..... he will (should) call with any 2 since losing to your doesn't hurt him and taking you out helps him. Against this opponent you have 0 fold equity. If your small blind same stack and the BB has the same stack then you have fold equity since you hurt him if he calls your bet assuming no one else in the pot.
AcidJoe your explanation was the simplest and easiest one to stick. Thanks for the great and simple explanation.
Cheers,
Steve
The way I always understood fold equity was - never wait too long to make a move. The smaller your stack is in relation to the table, the greater the odds people will look you up. I think Harrington refers to this as the dead zone. When you are in it, you don't have fold equity.
Let's say even if you get Aces in the dead zone, and double or triple up, you are probably still short stacked and might not have fold equity. It's better to not wait for the big hand, pick the right spot (or so you think) and push all in with connected cards, Ace/Rag, low pair, or even any two if you have position and a good read on the table. Even if your hand might not be the best, it's still better to make a move when you have more chips, at least enough to make your opponents leery of calling, because it will sting them if they lose... you have more fold equity. People are less willing to call.
First, you must understand what equity is. Equity is the percentage chance of you winning the pot multiplied by the amount of money in the pot (or the amount of money that you expect will be in the pot) at any given point during the hand.
Now, suppose you bet and your opponent has correct odds to call, but folds instead. Your equity has increased because your opponent has made a mistake (the pot you win is higher than your expected share of the pot would have been had he called you). That change in equity, due to your opponent folding, is the fold equity.
Obviously, your equity increases if your opponent folds a better hand than you have.
But if your opponent correctly folds, your equity does not increase.
A simple example:
Let's say there is $20 in the pot and you bet $5 on the turn. You have a high pair and hold the winning hand at the moment, but (unknown to you) your opponent has 14 live outs (pair and flush draw) to beat you on the river. There are 44 unseen cards (this is NLHE), thus your chance of winning the pot at showdown is 30/44 = 68.2%.
For simplicity, let's ignore potential action on the river.
If he calls your turn bet, your equity is 68.2% of $30 (the size of the pot after the turn) = $20.45.
If he folds, you win the pot, which is $25.
The difference - $4.55 - is the fold equity. This shows that your opponent incorrectly folded, and you have made money on that fold.
This probably has never been posted before....and may not ever happen again!!! THX!