Anyone ever see dbl quads?

dragondeath

Hi I do not have any idea how often this could happen, what are the odds??


PokerStars Game #6246905900: Tournament #31512672, $1.00+$0.10 Omaha Hi/Lo Limit - Level XI (1200/2400) - 2006/09/11 - 06:24:59 (ET)
Table '31512672 14' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: dragondeath (24044 in chips)
Seat 2: kalanisi (3820 in chips)
Seat 4: nowdream (7075 in chips)
Seat 5: Maleficence (3588 in chips)
Seat 6: eto2ipi (46423 in chips)
Seat 7: MattGG (4297 in chips)
Seat 8: DoDaFoo (24053 in chips)
Seat 9: omandog1 (14204 in chips)
MattGG: posts small blind 600
DoDaFoo: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dragondeath [Qs 6d 6s Qh]
omandog1: folds
dragondeath: raises 1200 to 2400
kalanisi: folds
nowdream: folds
Maleficence: raises 1188 to 3588 and is all-in
eto2ipi: folds
MattGG: folds
DoDaFoo: calls 2388
dragondeath: calls 1188
*** FLOP *** [Qd Qc 6h]
DoDaFoo: checks
dragondeath: bets 1200
DoDaFoo: folds
*** TURN *** [Qd Qc 6h] [Kd]
*** RIVER *** [Qd Qc 6h Kd] [6c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
dragondeath: shows [Qs 6d 6s Qh] (HI: four of a kind, Queens)
Maleficence: shows [As 8c 3c 2c] (HI: a pair of Queens)
dragondeath collected 11364 from pot
No low hand qualified
dragondeath said, "wow"
DoDaFoo said, "um"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 11364 | Rake 0
Board [Qd Qc 6h Kd 6c]
Seat 1: dragondeath showed [Qs 6d 6s Qh] and won (11364) with HI: four of a kind, Queens
Seat 2: kalanisi folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: nowdream folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Maleficence showed [As 8c 3c 2c] and lost with HI: a pair of Queens
Seat 6: eto2ipi (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: MattGG (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: DoDaFoo (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 9: omandog1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

JohnnieH

Thats pretty cool.

What are the odds of that happening?

Nice hand!

Johnnie.

CanadaDave

dragondeath wrote:

Hi I do not have any idea how often this could happen, what are the odds??

The odds of hitting it once is like 1 in 4,164, so since in omaha you are basiaclly dealt 6 hands (the 6 possible ways of combining your 4 cards to make the 2 card hand you use in the end)...maybe the odds would then be a bit better, like 1 in 694. So getting it twice in one hand would be like.. I have no idea! I'll try to figure it out later. Someone please correct my math on this one.

Cheers,
D

beanie42

I read that it's 38,915-1 (it happened at 2002 WSOP final table).

compuease

beanie42 wrote:

I read that it's 38,915-1 (it happened at 2002 WSOP final table).

Hey Bob (BIGBOB) lost with flopped 4 of a kind (8's) to 4 of a kind (K's) at Niagara about 3 weeks ago. Think the K's got the 3rd K on the turn, and they got it all in there, river brings the case K and Bob loses his stack. Wow is he loose....... Better not ask him about it though, may be a bit touchy....

Monteroy

Well, the odds of it happening in Omaha are likely greater then Holdem, but I have to say I have never seen it happen ever in over 100,000 Omaha hands and 500,000 Holdem hands so safe to say that is pretty rare. I think someone else posted a NL hand recently where one quads beat another quads that beat a third person with trips.

Probably the oddest hands I recall of mine were

Party Monster weekly, I have AA get in a 4 way all in preflop vs 88 77 and 33. Flop was 8 7 3 and noone improved.

A Stars tournament, can't remember what a couple years ago late and 3 others go all in preflop QQ vs KQ vs 22 and flop was Q22. I remember thinking how odd it was for someone to flop the nut full house and be drawing completely dead

A stars tournament where I go all in with AA vs KK flop is A 8 3 so I switch to other tables where I am up and only notice a few hands later that my chip stack is smaller then it should be, I scroll up and see tons of OMGs etc because he hit runner runner kings

CanadaDave

beanie42 wrote:

I read that it's 38,915-1 (it happened at 2002 WSOP final table).

Here's a link to the odds :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability

The number 1 in ,4164 I gave before was actually for 5 card poker, so with Texas Hold 'em it increases to 594 : 1 and Omaha would be even higher. As fas as making 2 at the same time.. I am still not sure.  Working on it tho...

moose

I think this hand demonstrates the value of not raising to chase 1/2 of a pot.




Whoo hoo! Post #1000

dragondeath

well i don't get the odds of it but i bought a lotto ticket yesterday.

Soup

http://pokerforum.ca/forum/index.php?topic=10640.0

JohnnieH

Soup wrote:

http://pokerforum.ca/forum/index.php?topic=10640.0

I've seen that before, the OP had DOUBLE Quads, Queens AND Sixes. 4 of a Kind X 2!!

That's just crazy.

roketinpoket

Monteroy wrote:

  I think someone else posted a NL hand recently where one quads beat another quads that beat a third person with trips.

How could the third have trips?

CanadaDave

roketinpoket wrote:

How could the third have trips?

Three people had Pocket Pairs... I think 1 had Pocket 2's, the second person had pocket 10's, and the 3rd person had Pocket Ks'.

The flop came 2, 10, K.. So all three flopped a set, and then Turn came K, and River came 2.

The link is above, but here it is again:

http://pokerforum.ca/forum/index.php?topic=10640.0

The guy who posted was always the dog in the hand... with his 2's; but still a tough beat.   

Not sure what would be the crazier odds to happen.  The Double QUADS in this OP, or the 3 ppl flopping a set (2 hitting QUADS) in the topic I mention above.

g2

dragondeath wrote:

Hi I do not have any idea how often this could happen, what are the odds??

I'm surprised no one did the math on the OP's question. I'll take a stab at it.

#of boards that would give a double paired hand double quads:
4*3*2*1*44 * 5! arrangements of those cards
=126720

# of possible boards based on just knowing the OP's hand:
48*47*46*45*44
=205476480

So the odds of double quads is 126720/205476480
=1 in 1621.5

So for every time that you start with a double paired hand in Omaha, you will get double quads 1 in 1621.5 times, assuming you don't fold before the river.

I'll leave it up to someone else to figure out the odds of being dealt a double paired hand in Omaha.

/g2

dragondeath

Thank you for the odds, still not sure how you worked it though.

g2

dragondeath wrote:

Thank you for the odds, still not sure how you worked it though.

126720 = the number of boards with QQ66X in any order
205476480 = the total number of possible XXXXX boards (incl. QQ66X boards)

/g2

CanadaDave

The odds of being dealt a double pair starting hand would be ...

Let's start with the total possible starting hands = 52 Choose 4 = 52! / (52-4)! = 52! / 48!  = 6497400  possible starting hands.
<- edit!! -> Now to ignore the order of the cards being dealt, that number needs to be divided by 4! (24 ways to be dealt the same 4 cards).

So, there are only 270,725 different starting hands in omaha

Since there are 6 ways to make a pair for each denomination(or rank) of card (ie.  2c2d , 2c2h, 2c2s, 2d2h,  2d2s, 2h2s )
So that makes 78 possible specific pairs you could have. 

So there would be 78 different pairs to choose from. and we want to choose all of the possible combinations that do not include a second pair of the same rank...

So for each of the 78 possible pair, there are only 72 other pair we want to put them with (the 12 other ranks x  the 6 possibilities for each rank)

Therefore there are 5616  / 2 = 2808 ways to be dealt 2 pair (the "/ 2" is to account for the fact it doesn't matter which pair comes first)

So the odds of being dealt 2 pair are 2808 out of 270,725 or 96.4 to 1

Now for the actual odds of hitting double quads...

OK now if I have done all of that correctly (which is unlikely knowing how often I screw these things up ) <-- edit, yep screwed em up -->

Then if you will be dealt 2 pair 1 in every 96.4 times,  and if you have been dealt 2 pair you have a 1 in 1621.5 of hitting Quads, ..

there would be a.... drum roll please.............

1 in 156,332.12 chance of being dealt double quads.    

<- so with my edits, there is about a 97.5% chance of this being correct!! ->

Sorry this was so long, I just wanted to include the work, so it can be corrected easily.

That is quite the long shot you hit there!

Cheers

JohnnieH

CanadaDave wrote:

1 in 1,875,985.42 chance of being dealt double quads.

I knew it was a long shot, but HOLY COW!

Nice friggin hand.

WaterLooser

Odds of winning lotto 6/49 1 in 13,983,816. Therefore, keep playing poker!

compuease

CanadaDave wrote:

The odds of being dealt a double pair starting hand would be ...

Let's start with the total possible starting hands = 52 Choose 4 = 52! / (52-4)! = 52! / 48!  = 6497400  possible starting hands.

Since there are 6 ways to make a pair for each denomination(or rank) of card (ie.  2c2d , 2c2h, 2c2s, 2d2h,  2d2s, 2h2s )
So that makes 78 possible specific pairs you could have. 

So there would be 78 different pairs to choose from. and we want to choose all of the possible combinations that do not include a second pair of the same rank...

So for each of the 78 possible pair, there are only 72 other pair we want to put them with (the 12 other ranks x  the 6 possibilities for each rank)

Therefore there are 5616  ways to be dealt 2 pair

So the odds of being dealt 2 pair are 5616 out of 6497400 or 1156.94 to 1

Now for the actual odds of hitting double quads...

OK now if I have done all of that correctly (which is unlikely knowing how often I screw these things up )

Then if you will be dealt 2 pair 1 in every 1156.94 times,  and if you have been dealt 2 pair you have a 1 in 1621.5 of hitting Quads, ..

there would be a.... drum roll please.............

1 in 1,875,985.42 chance of being dealt double quads.    

Sorry this was so long, I just wanted to include the work, so it can be corrected easily.

That is quite the long shot you hit there!

Cheers

So is this the odds of two players having quads in the same hand in hold-em or Omaha? And does it matter how many players are delt in?

g2

compuease wrote:

So is this the odds of two players having quads in the same hand in hold-em or Omaha? And does it matter how many players are delt in?

The 1 in 1.8M are the odds of getting double quads in any hand of omaha (e.g. being dealt QQ66 and the board being Q66XQ). It is independent of other hands.

Thanks for finishing the job Dave, looks correct to me.

/g2

jpeterson007

Hey All,
This is my first post and hopefully I can contribute some decent comments to this forum and maybe some more insight, but probably I'll learn more than anything.  Anyways I have seen double quads once while I was playing.  It was omaha however but it was still pretty awesome.  I had JJ and my opponent had AA and we both ended up with quads and I had it all in and lost.  It's pretty hard to get mad at it because I was behind the whole way and it was just awesome to see. Thanks and hope to see you all around the forum.
Jay

dragondeath

Well thank you again for the odds. My lotto ticket got me nothing but i forgot to say i did take 3rd in the tourney which was nice for 23$

JohnnieH

jpeterson007 wrote:

Hey All,
This is my first post and hopefully I can contribute some decent comments to this forum and maybe some more insight, but probably I'll learn more than anything. Anyways I have seen double quads once while I was playing. It was omaha however but it was still pretty awesome. I had JJ and my opponent had AA and we both ended up with quads and I had it all in and lost. It's pretty hard to get mad at it because I was behind the whole way and it was just awesome to see. Thanks and hope to see you all around the forum.
Jay

Welcome to the forum, Jay.

The discussion here is that the OP had double quads. Four of a kind times 2, Queens AND sixes. That is pretty rare.

Quads over quads, (with 2 players) happens more often than you think in Omaha. I've had it happen to me several times on Stars.

Johnnie

CanadaDave

g2 wrote:

The 1 in 1.8M are the odds of getting double quads in any hand of omaha (e.g. being dealt QQ66 and the board being Q66XQ).  It is independent of other hands.

Thanks for finishing the job Dave, looks correct to me.

/g2

No problem. Now no more math for a while until the next time I play poker.

compuease

OK mathematicians, now what about the odds of 2 players in a hold-em hand having quads? That's the one that happened to BIGBOB a few weeks ago. He was on the losing end. Lucky he was only playing 1/2.

CanadaDave

compuease wrote:

OK mathematicians, now what about the odds of 2 players in a hold-em hand having quads? That's the one that happened to BIGBOB a few weeks ago. He was on the losing end. Lucky he was only playing 1/2.

Here goes....
  Well G2s calculations for a board of qq66x  would still hold, since 2 ppl hitting quads in hold 'em would require the same board as double quads in omaha..

So the odds of a specific double pair board is 126720/205476480 =1 in 1621.5

So now we need to know the odds of being dealt a pair in hold em...

There are 52 choose 2 possible starting hands in hold 'em,  52! / 50! = 52*51  = 2652 / 2 = 1326  (since there are 2 ways to order those 2 cards)

So of the 1326 possible starting hands, 78 of those are a pocket pair of some sort. 

Therefore the odds of one person being dealt a pocket pair is 78/1326 =
1 in 17.    (hmm... now how the hell did I go at least 50 hands at g2's tourney without one?? lol)

So the odds of you hitting your quads, and there being another pair on the board(to make someone else their quads) would be 1 in 27,565.5.

Now I think we need to figure out the odds of someone else having the exact 2 cards that would go with the other pair on the board, would be....

Since there are now only 1326 possible starting hands(ignoring order), but we need to subtract all of the hands that contain at least 1 of the cards that is in our hand of on the baord...   so instead of 52 choose 2 it we take out the 4 sixes, and 2 of the queens, leaving 46 other unknown cards, therefore there are now 1035 possible starting hands for the other person...

and only 1 of those would match the pair on the board, it would be a 1 in 1035 chance somebody has that hand.   Now here's where I think I might be wrong... since I'm not 100% sure how to include the second person's hand..??

I'll stick with my original theory, someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

Bringing the over-all odds to ...... drum roll....


1 in 28,530,292.5... Anyone see anything wrong with the way I calculated this? I'm sure there is this time.

CanadaDave

Please see my first post on the Odds for getting dealt double quads in omaha.... I have reworked the math. I included way too many possible starting hands the first time. I stupidly forgot to eliminate all of the different ways to be dealt the same 4 cards ( 4! = 24 ways). It should be more accurate now.

Sorry about that.