Wins caused by luck and losses caused by lack of skill

hockrefhockref
in Online Poker
It sounds crazy when I read it but it is how I react to my poker play.

If I go up 100 bbs in a 6 hour session I think wow I got lucky even though I can look back through my notes and see that in the majority of hands I simply made better decisions than the other guy.

Then if I have a session where I go down 20-40 bb when I have the best right to the river and question whether I have any ability for this game at all when I know I had the best going in and they just got lucky.

I think I am just frustrated that I have sat in this same 100bb range for three weeks with no sustained movement above my initial deposit level!

Is this all part of the "emotional control" of the game or am I just crazy?

Cheers,
Steve

Comments

  • MonteroyMonteroy
    Likely not crazy, rather you are a victim of interpreting short term data in a long term manner.

    Then again, maybe you are nuts.
  • ChrisWinsorChrisWinsor
    3 weeks is a long time to be staying around the initial Bank role, that sucks. Mabye you should switch limits/PL/SNGs/MTT
  • AcidJoeAcidJoe
    In the overall scheme of poker 3 weeks is nothing. I've had times over 1000's of hands where all I've really done is tread water, then all of a sudden the roll will take off again. I wouldn't worry about it.
  • GTA PokerGTA Poker
    Any big win is unrealistic to sustain. It is part of the average that you are making in the long run. The key to being a winning cash game player is losing the least with the worst of it and making the most with the best of it. You can't have a winning session every time that you sit and some wins will only be a few bbs. Playing right makes you a winner overall.
  • hockrefhockref
    AcidJoe wrote:
    In the overall scheme of poker 3 weeks is nothing.  I've had times over 1000's of hands where all I've really done is tread water, then all of a sudden the roll will take off again.  I wouldn't worry about it. 

    Great, this confirms I am simply crazy!

    I went back up 20bbs last night even with a few lucky river cards to the villians. One of the reasons I may have been sitting so long in the middle is playing 6 max short handed buy with a full handed outlook and strategy. I played last night using Dave's short handed guide from a previous post. The swings were wider than usual but ended up in the positive.
  • ChrisWinsorChrisWinsor
    I dont get how you see 3 weeks of solid playing (i'm gonna assume it's that) with a result of no gain as normal and short term results... With that in mind that means it'll take him months just to make any significant gain, which is ridiculous
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    ChrisWinsor wrote:
    I dont get how you see 3 weeks of solid playing (i'm gonna assume it's that) with a result of no gain as normal and short term results... With that in mind that means it'll take him months just to make any significant gain, which is ridiculous
    plot your poker bankroll over a 20-year period. this is long term. you'll see any 3 week move up, down or sideways as nothing. unless you just so happen to win the wsop in that period and do nothing else.
  • beanie42beanie42
    ChrisWinsor wrote:
    I dont get how you see 3 weeks of solid playing (i'm gonna assume it's that) with a result of no gain as normal and short term results...
    If 3 weeks isn't short-term, what do you consider long-term?  2 weeks?
    ChrisWinsor wrote:
    With that in mind that means it'll take him months just to make any significant gain, which is ridiculous
    Depending on how many tables you play and session length, months is not unreasonable.  I don't have the long track record of some of the players on here, but I've already experienced 1000+ hands of downswing/cold-decks (around 50 hours playing 4 tables before I finally turned profitable again).  I was warned about it, but was still surprised when it came.
    GTA Poker wrote:
    The key to being a winning cash game player is losing the least with the worst of it and making the most with the best of it. You can't have a winning session every time that you sit and some wins will only be a few bbs. Playing right makes you a winner overall.
    Hockref - this is the best advice.  Think long-term (months and years, not weeks), and make sure you are playing well.  Eventually the short-term peaks and valleys will stop affecting you so much.  

    Try to look at your hands objectively, and determine whether you played them well or not without paying attention to the result. If you played it properly, there's no "leak" to correct and you'll hurt your game by trying.

    And honestly, if you're bad streak is break-even, be glad it's not a losing streak.

    Good luck!
  • AcidJoeAcidJoe
    Maybe I should post my bankroll over the last ummmmmmmm 80K hands. You will find some horridous downswings. We are talking several of 200BB or more. Long term is up however. In the last 2 months at Tribeca I have been very profitable, however the last 3K hands have been in the minus. Still counting this minus I'm averaging almost 5BB/100 hands. I did have a couple of $80-100 losing sessions at 2/4 short handed during this minus time. When I get home I'll get a graph and post it and get an idea of what can happen short term and longer term.
  • AcidJoeAcidJoe
    Here is my bankroll so far for this year.  It also doesn't encompass Poker.com since it's not poker tracker compatible.  While up, you can see there are large dips.  Also shown is my last few sessions on trebeca which is not fairing as well over the last 5 weeks. 

    All sites:

    236228455_674e5100fb_o.jpg

    Tribeca over the last 6 weeks. 

    221431248_ba25e5bfc4_o.jpg
  • ElElliottElElliott
    Thanks for sharing Joe - that does put a lot of perspective on results.

    Does pokertracker have the ability to include/import offline stats? Right now I track all my stats in an excel file i created (it's not fancy), and I track online & offline together. I don't play a lot online, but I do think that pokertracker might be helpful....but I'm not sure I want to be keeping two seperate tracking systems.

    Sorry...off-topic :)
  • AcidJoeAcidJoe
    poker tracker doesn't really have the ability to include them, though I guess you could actually write it to a file in a form that poker tracker could understand and import. I actually use various methods of keeping track of everything. I have a pen and notebook beside my computer and write in all my SNG's then manually enter them into SNG tracker. I also keep track off all sites I play at that aren't PT compatible and live games. My notes aren't as detailed as PT however I do know approx how many hands played, profit/loss, time played etc. Gives me enough info to know what's going on.
  • beanie42beanie42
    ElElliott wrote:
    Thanks for sharing Joe - that does put a lot of perspective on results.
    Yes - thanks.  That's a nice run, and puts things in perspective.  On a side-note, are these primarily limit or NL hands?

    I've posted my year as well.  I haven't done as well as Joe, but I experienced a HUGE skid in NL (700BB drop, or about 15 buy-ins, from around hand 19k - 25k) that I thought would show how bad things can get.  It looks horrible, but honestly, my game was getting better although my results were getting worse.  Luckily I rode it out, and while this shows the dark side, it also shows that you can recover if you stick with it. The key is perserverance and a sufficient bankroll for the limits you're playing.

    bb_thumb.jpg
  • AcidJoeAcidJoe
    Primarily limit (that's what I"m tending to play now). I have played the occassional NL games, with some short handed games mixed in. My SNG's which aren't posted are all NL. Again I've had a few bad slides in them before recovering. To the people who think 3 weeks is long term need to really define their outlook.

    Thanks for sharing Trevor, as it looks like those large dips I"m not alone with.
  • ChrisWinsorChrisWinsor
    ... If i join a site with 100 $ and play at 1/2$ limit i expect to see my stack grow within a week. If it took me a month or more to double my 100$ i wouldn't play poker since it wouldnt be worth my time... So you're telling me that you play poker and you make 5% of your bankroll every month? there's just no way... No one would play poker if that were the case.
  • beanie42beanie42
    ChrisWinsor wrote:
    ... If i join a site with 100 $ and play at 1/2$ limit i expect to see my stack grow within a week. If it took me a month or more to double my 100$ i wouldn't play poker since it wouldnt be worth my time... So you're telling me that you play poker and you make 5% of your bankroll every month? there's just no way... No one would play poker if that were the case.
    I don't play as much limit, so others will have to confirm/clarify, but my understanding is that a decent win-rate is 2BB/100.  To make $100 at $1/2 would take 5000 hands on average.  Assuming a table-speed of 50 hands/hour, that's 100 hours.  Considering I have a job and family, I think I play a lot if I get in 20 hrs/week. As far as playing for 5%, I've been making a lot more than that, but not every month (you have good months and bad months). It's really simply a factor of how many hours/tables you play. I normally play 4 tables at a time and expect to make around 3-4 BB/100/table (or about 6 BB/hr). I'm not "super-skilled" which is why my expectations are on the low side, but it's something realistic, attainable, and sustainable.

    Chris - I'm curious how many hours you play each week and how many tables at a time in order to double your bankroll more than once/month.  And what sort of track record do you have with this (how long)?  If it's anywhere close to a decent sample size you'd be a jazillionaire by now.
  • AcidJoeAcidJoe
    Chris - I'm curious how many hours you play each week and how many tables at a time in order to double your bankroll more than once/month.  And what sort of track record do you have with this (how long)?  If it's anywhere close to a decent sample size you'd be a jazillionaire by now.

    I haven't seen any kind of track record posted.  He obviously hasn't played long enough to experience a 200+BB slide.  Or maybe he's super lucky.  Or maybe he has a job like a security guard, firefighter or cop where he can play at work and still collect a paycheck.   Playing 1/2 limit with $100 you run a risk of going broke with that $100.   I set a stop of 30BB per session to quit a table.  That's 60% of your 1/2 roll which you expect to double in a week. 

    My guess is he's another player who has either had tremendous luck or he's talking out of his Ass. 

    Or if I"m wrong and your actually a jazillionaire send a few of your boys in a limo to pick me up, I"d like to meet you. 
  • ScoobyDScoobyD
    ... If i join a site with 100 $ and play at 1/2$ limit i expect to see my stack grow within a week. If it took me a month or more to double my 100$ i wouldn't play poker since it wouldnt be worth my time... So you're telling me that you play poker and you make 5% of your bankroll every month? there's just no way... No one would play poker if that were the case.

    Wow.

    Where to begin?

    Beanie and Joe summed things nicely I think...

    This:
    I'm not "super-skilled" which is why my expectations are on the low side, but it's something realistic, attainable, and sustainable.

    is dead on IMO. Knowing what is possible/probable and being able to differentiate the 2 comes from experience.

    (BTW Beanie, I'm not super skilled either. I'd LOVE to have a 2BB/hr winrate (I do at some limits, but overall probably closer to 1.5ish).
  • AcidJoeAcidJoe
    Beanie and Joe summed things nicely I think...

    Wow Scooby, that's the nicest thing you've ever said to me..... :)

    I know from our discussions, I"m probably more aggressive looser etc than you, which I also know can lead to wilder swings. 2BB doesn't sound like much (it actually isn't) but most of your wins come from making less mistakes than your opponent. Lots of little wins means winning.
  • hockrefhockref
    I have had a break through tonight!

    Went up 20bb in an hour session and did some of it with hands I would normally consider lucky.

    1st hand

    I pick up 22 and am last to act. I raise expecting the sb and bb to fold and next in line to call my bet. BB stays in as well and next in line as well. My hand does not improve. bb folds on my flop bet The turn and river miss me completely but I bet into the calling staion still in the pot. He calls the river and shows AJo for ace high. Normally I would say " I got lucky: but in this case I had him in a box. Anything he caught he would raise but had shwon in previouls hands he would call if he had overcards and was hoping to catch.

    Next notable hand.

    I pick up 99 and raiise from utg+1. Flop comes 8 10 J rainbox I bet, Same calling station calls me. Turn and river are rags and I bet both getting called both times. He actually caught a piece of the turn, I don't remember what the card was but he called it down and paid me off. At this point it seemed he was paying attention to my play a little and was not raising as much when playing me heads up.

    There were also several other hands where I checked rather than raising hoping to get info on my opponents that let me win this 2 hands and afew others.

    I would normally count both these hands as luck over skill but realize now that a lot of what I was looking at as luck previously may have been paying more attention than I thought I was and picking up on how the table was being played.

    Steve
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