Tough luck or Rigged which is it?
I have been playing on poker stars as of late and post this question to all for their opinion. Today was especially rough. I had decided to buy into the sunday million tournament. I was barely holding on to my chips when I get a hand were i make some breathing room. I caught a suited ace in the sb and pushed in against a maniac and successfully doubled through. My stats were as follows flops seen from the big blind for the first hour was high 80 percentile. I was able to limp in a lot from the bb miss then muck my hand. I was also able to limb from the sb often to try and catch lucky cards but to no avail as i would see the flop for cheap and then again muck my cards after I miss. I have entered a large number of tournaments over the last week and I have been busted out by someone pushing all in on a four flush and hitting their flush card on the turn which usually left me drawing dead, or close to it. Today during the sunday million I had q5 from the bb and again limped in. Flop came q46 two clubs. I was around 1300 in chips at the start of the hand. When the flop came I pushed all in and the guy next to me raised all in. At that point i figred I was dead. Cards come over he has 45 clubs and I have Q5 no club. Without waiting the turn card is the Ace of clubs making me drawing dead to the river card. I played some more tournaments later on and two of them i get ak dealt first hand so i came in for a standard raise and the flop comes three low cards. This happened two consecutive tournaments. Then I played a 30 plus 3 where first hand i get AK and raise preflop flop comes three rag cards. I had one suckout for all the tournies I played today and it was in the 30 plus 3. A short stack makes a raise preflop I have 66 I make it 1000 to go leaves other player with 5 chips left behind if he calls. He raised back the 5 chips and I call. Card come over he has qq against my 66. The turn i hit a 6 and knock him out of the sit n go. A few hands later on I get 88 and make the standard raise. An extremely short stack pushes in and I call. Cards come over kq vs 88. King hits the river and he doubles through. 6 remain in the 18 player sit n go and I get aq chip leader raises to 700 and I call. Flop comes Q J Rag. I push all in not expecting call and the chip leader calls. AJ clubs vs AQ off suit. Turn is a J and I am out. I asked him what he thought I had he said it looked like a desperation bet, I said of course its a desperation bet I am desparate to get my chips in with the best hand. Played a 20 plus 2 with 180 players. First hand i get is AK. Again a total rag flop hits and i fold on the flop. I limp through the sit n go folding a lot. After the first break I am starting to get short stacked and I push in with AT and get called by AT suited. Flop came three hearts and right away I am drawing dead. That was the end of my frustration. Every time i had AA in these tournaments id make a standard raise and every time everyone folded to me, go figure. What do you guys think? Thanks for letting me vent some frustration too I appreciate it. I am taking a break with online poker as well maybe later I will come back to it with fresh eyes.
Comments
Note -- I did not read the entire post, you need to use our little friend the paragraph.
But...RIGGED!
of course it's rigged how else d o you think they pay lee. BTW welcome back to posting Harthgosh
Person incapable of using paragraphs + rigged beliefs + likely bad beat stories = a person I am always happy sitting next to at a poker table .
Hell, I will even pretend to believe and be sensitive to your blathering as you spew your money to the table in the false belief that you have the ability and emotional stability to play the game well.
Allow me to practice a bit:
Buddy, I feel for you, you are a solid player just getting somebad luck, keep playing you will turn it around. Tell me more hands.
By the way, what site do you play and what is your user name?
All the best.
You miss with AK (happens like 2/3 of the time).
You suckout with a 2 outer with 2 cards to come.
You lose a coinflip.
You lose to a 2 outer with 2 cards to come.
AK misses again.
You lose to the same hands (suited).
So you split your 2 outers, lost 2 coinflips, missed twice with AK. The only slightly rough beat is the ATo vs. ATs. And shit like that will happen. Guess what...that's called poker.
p.s I am joking
cuz I can always suck out on you. but that's only live. Â
freud was here
uh....eeeeeeeeek!
team brokeback in da hizzy
Two points, first I agree with GTA, learn to use paragraphs, I'm simply not reading that scrawl.
Secondly I'm not reading a ridiculous online bad beat story that blames rigged software.
The End
You are probably completely shocked, and say the software is rigged when you lose with Aces too, aren't you?
SO it's not rigged software when you lose with the best hand... it's not even bad luck... it's just poker, and it happens some of the time. Deal with it, or find a different game. Otherwise you are just going to spend way too much of your time being pissed at the world, and being completely on tilt.
Cheers,
Dave
This post is going quickly down hill.. much like the story of the poomoney. hehe poomoney.
I find my pocket aces beat random hands more then 31% of the time (you know since they are always at least a 4-1 favorite), Your stats on AK are a bit off as well. If the basis of your assumptions are a table with 9 or 10 limpers then ok I guess. I am just using a very large poker tracker database to see the overall performance of those hands
I certainly would agree that the original poster fits the type of player who will vastly overplay those hands and when he loses with them with cite reasons other then his own play as the cause.
I was assuming a 9-10 person table, and I'm talking about preflop percentages, against 9 other completely random hands. So the percentages aren't based on anyone acting yet. I think they are fairly accurate when taken that way.
I was assuming a 9-10 person table, and I'm talking about preflop percentages, against 9 other completely random hands. So the percentages aren't based on anyone acting yet. I think they are fairly accurate when taken that way.
As a theoretical number sure, but as a practical number that statistic is meaningless unless 9-10 people go to showdown, which safe to say never happens (play money games aside). Another aspect your statistic completely neglects is pot size and thus +EV.
Still, let's examine the theoretical side for a moment. Let's assume all 10 people will see a flop and aces only has a 31% chance of winning preflop. The size of the pot will have to be very large so the expected value (EV) is still subsequently large and positive. When 2 people see the flop you will win 80% of the time for generally a smaller pot though again the EV will be quite positive. Same thing to a lesser extent with AK, and this is also the basis of why raising a hand like 67 suited on the button with a ton of limpers already in the hand is correct. You are not the favorite to win, but you have a better then average chance to win with 67 suited, thus your expected value is positive for each bet/reraise preflop.
To simple say Aces only win 31% of the time without clarification is quite misleading. They are always a huge +EV hand, though granted they are also the hand that bad players will overplay the most.
The rigged aspect always amuses me. Tends to be either extreme rocks who whine when the one hand they play in 20 gets cracked or the loose aggressive players who are bound to lose their money eventually anyways. They remember bad beats but forget when the better hand simple holds and wins, their sample size of their beliefs is always tiny - usually based on what they selectively remember.
They somehow believe the Online sites have teams of secret programmers who can watch and analyze play and adjust deals to benefit certain players. Aside from this being one of the most complicated programming tasks ever, it would require noone ever leak this secret (impossible) and would risk their entire business if caught. Quite an effort to screw a player playing $25 buy in NL poker.
Sometimes they will claim hands are juiced, which makes no sense since all that will do is slow the game as hands experience tons of raises and showdowns. At the higher limits the rake will be capped well before this happens and at lower limits the rake is often a larger chunk once a certain pot size is hit and then it goes up in smaller increments. Ironically, juiced hands would cost the sites rake money.
In summary, don't be afraid to play your aces preflop even if you think the site is rigged :P
steve
The main reason most people lose money on poker is simply RAKE!!!!!. The $120/hr the casino takes off the table or the lessor amounts that an on line room takes out is amazing. For those with poker tracker just look at what gets paid there. I know what I pay in rake since I'm getting a portion back.