Run it twice
I was watching this weeks High Stakes Poker tonight and during a hand between Neganeau and Elezra after the flop DN said to run it twice.
They then proceeded to show the turn and river cards twice.
Is this some sort of prop bet? I've never seen this before.
Hobbes
They then proceeded to show the turn and river cards twice.
Is this some sort of prop bet? I've never seen this before.
Hobbes
Comments
there is no "taking the worst of it" when running it twice, the EV is exactly the same whether you run it once, twice, ten times, or forty times. All running it more than once does is reduce variance.
Flop is all black, or all red
How many face cards on the flop
any ideas?
not true, the used cards are now dead...think about it
they bet on specific flops, ie K43, but win a smaller bet if only 2 of their picks come out, (Im pretty sure) DN wrote about it in his blog a while ago, google search should turn it up pretty quickly.
Props have many variations. A common one works like this:
only 4 people at the table can play.
You pick a rank and a suit. Each person has a different rank and suit. Usually 2-9 only.
If you pick the eight of spades and it flops you get two to one usually. So if you are playing $1 props you get $2. If you flop an eight you get one to one odds, so $1. If the flop comes down all spades but no eight, you get 3-1 I believe. If it has the eight you get 3-1 + 2-1. If it is a straight flush you get 5-1, straight flush with your eight, 5-1 + 2-1. You probably get the idea.
If you have an action junkie beside you, playing two person dominant color props is fun. You pick red or black preflop. Always the same amount, say $5. If you pick red and 2 of the 3 cards are read you get $5. Loser picks color next round, or you play with the same color all game.
Props are fun!!!
The dead cards I think change very little in the way of things (although I've bounced this around a few times). If there is a difference, it's minimal.
Eg, I recall "running it twice" once in a home game (I agreed to induce a call). I had AA, the other guy had a smaller pair. It ended up chopped. I was thinking I got a raw deal, because the odds of him hitting his 2 outer over 10 cards is a lot higher. Which of course is true. If you figure I'm a 4:1 favourite each go, I have about a 64% chance to win, a 32% chance to chop and only a 4% chance of losing. A lot of times, people only see it as "I'll win a lot less frequently", but it's also true that they'll rarely lose the pot (which will occur 1 in 5 times the other way). And yes, I'm aware that if the first 5 cards miss the smaller pair then the deck is more likely to hit him the 2nd time. But if he does catch a 2 outer on the first run, he now is drawing to a single out, so this offsets this.
I think ScottyZ needs to do some math and show this more concretely (I couldn't do a proof to save my life, I just try to apply it, hence engineering over math).
there is an advantage to refusing to run it, in that your opponents might throw away very slightly +ev coinflips because they dont want to have the variance.
There may be psychological EV to not running it twice, ie the other player may not want to make a big loose cal against a player known not to run it twice
Else, the math is correct, the EV is the same.
Example:
5c 5s vs Ac Ks
board: Qh 9d 3h 2d; runing it twice (ie 2 river cards); Pot is 10K
Running it once: 55 has 38/44($8636.36) ; AK has 6/44 ($1363.64)
Running it twice;
55 to win: 38/44 x 37/43 ($10000) = $7431.28
chance to tie (38/44) (6/43) + (6/44)(38/43) <--= same 0.24 (x $5000, split pot) = ($1205.08)
AK to win: 6/44 x 5/43 ($10000) = $158.56
Overall Equity:
55: $8636.36
AK: $1363.64
So obv the math works out to know difference in EV (why else would Pros/Mathematical players like BG give up free equity). BG has given Hellmuth insurance on a hand because he was getting more equity than he deserved on the deal.
And I agree with GTA that the EV is exactly the same and the variance is just reduced.
/g2
Maybe it depends on where yoy are in the hand????
I think the flop had already come out when they agreed to run it twice.
In this case it was the Turn/River cards that they ran twice.
Hobbes
/g2