I was watching PNL the other night and seem to remember a conversation about the most common flop. Supposedly the most common you will find is AJ2. Anyone else hear that?
here's an odds quesiton. What are the odds that the board will pair in any given hand, as well as the odds for having three cards of the same suite in any given hand?
I was watching PNL the other night and seem to remember a conversation about the most common flop. Supposedly the most common you will find is AJ2. Anyone else hear that?
Although I doubt this is a serious comment, an unpaired flop is most common, if that's what was meant by this.
However, the exact flop AJ2 is less likely than the exact flop 432 since more flops are seen when a lot of Aces and Jacks are in players' hole cards compared to when a lot of 3's and 4's are in players' hole cards.
Odds of flopping THREE SPECIFIC CARDS...16 599 to 1
Not so, since the pre-flop play determines whether or not a flop is seen. This general idea is a major oversight in many of the "site X is rigged" analyses. Past plays affect the probibility distribution of future dealt cards.
For example, the exact flop Ah As Ad is less likely than 2h 2s 2d
Besides, the odds against 3 exact cards being chosen from a well-shuffled deck are 22,099 to 1.
Along the same vein, this
here's an odds quesiton. What are the odds that the board will pair in any given hand, as well as the odds for having three cards of the same suite in any given hand?
is impossible (or at least, exceptionally difficult) to calculate, since the pre-flop play affects the distribution of the cards that appear on the flop.
This is then easy to compute using elementary probability, but meaningless in application to poker. Flops are related to the pre-flop cards that were dealt.
The calculations (or Googling the answers) are left as an exercise to the reader.
I'm not a believer but it was just what I heard while watching PNL, did anyone else see that episode?
I saw that episode... I was on it!
Johnny said that he heard that AJ2 was the most common flop and asked me if I'd heard anything about it. I couldn't determine whether or not he was serious, so I said very little. There was a part of me that thought he meant unpaired flops being more common than paired flops, and there was a part of me that thought he was kidding, but since I couldn't tell, I think we just moved on to something else.
I was watching PNL the other night and seem to remember a conversation about the most common flop. Supposedly the most common you will find is AJ2. Anyone else hear that?
Although I doubt this is a serious comment, an unpaired flop is most common, if that's what was meant by this.
However, the exact flop AJ2 is less likely than the exact flop 432 since more flops are seen when a lot of Aces and Jacks are in players' hole cards compared to when a lot of 3's and 4's are in players' hole cards.
Odds of flopping THREE SPECIFIC CARDS...16 599 to 1
Not so, since the pre-flop play determines whether or not a flop is seen. This general idea is a major oversight in many of the "site X is rigged" analyses. Past plays affect the probibility distribution of future dealt cards.
For example, the exact flop Ah As Ad is less likely than 2h 2s 2d
Besides, the odds against 3 exact cards being chosen from a well-shuffled deck are 22,099 to 1.
Along the same vein, this
here's an odds quesiton. What are the odds that the board will pair in any given hand, as well as the odds for having three cards of the same suite in any given hand?
is impossible (or at least, exceptionally difficult) to calculate, since the pre-flop play affects the distribution of the cards that appear on the flop.
I'm not a believer but it was just what I heard while watching PNL, did anyone else see that episode?
I saw that episode... I was on it!
Johnny said that he heard that AJ2 was the most common flop and asked me if I'd heard anything about it. I couldn't determine whether or not he was serious, so I said very little. There was a part of me that thought he meant unpaired flops being more common than paired flops, and there was a part of me that thought he was kidding, but since I couldn't tell, I think we just moved on to something else.
I was watching PNL the other night and seem to remember a conversation about the most common flop. Supposedly the most common you will find is AJ2. Anyone else hear that?
Although I doubt this is a serious comment, an unpaired flop is most common, if that's what was meant by this.
However, the exact flop AJ2 is less likely than the exact flop 432 since more flops are seen when a lot of Aces and Jacks are in players' hole cards compared to when a lot of 3's and 4's are in players' hole cards.
Odds of flopping THREE SPECIFIC CARDS...16 599 to 1
Not so, since the pre-flop play determines whether or not a flop is seen. This general idea is a major oversight in many of the "site X is rigged" analyses. Past plays affect the probibility distribution of future dealt cards.
For example, the exact flop Ah As Ad is less likely than 2h 2s 2d
Besides, the odds against 3 exact cards being chosen from a well-shuffled deck are 22,099 to 1.
Along the same vein, this
here's an odds quesiton. What are the odds that the board will pair in any given hand, as well as the odds for having three cards of the same suite in any given hand?
is impossible (or at least, exceptionally difficult) to calculate, since the pre-flop play affects the distribution of the cards that appear on the flop.
ScottyZ
What he said.
Damn you Devo, I was just going to play the"guess who was hosting when this was said" game. I could no longer resist.
Here's the "true" median hand, I haven't run all possible hands, but I read an article about the names of hands that explained that Q7 is close, but not as close as this.
equity(%) win(%) tie(%)
Hand 1: 49.9868% 47.82% 02.17% (Js5s)
Hand 2: 50.0132% 47.85% 02.17% (random)
Why 13cards said Q-7, was there was an article posted ( I am sorry I have no access to this, maybe try googling it) but every hand the sites have played is logged (obviously) and the most common hand to be dealt randomly was Q-7. Â Altough this could of been any two cards, that was the hand most commonly dealt in online poker.
I always get flop with straight draw or flush draw for somebody when I've got AA, KK, AK or AQ. Then I move in, I think I win here more than 50%. When I have small suited connectors I always get flop with face cards recently. It used to work for me pretty good but recently just didn't. It's maybe just streak of bad luck or something.
A flopped flush vs a flopped set, set has 34.44% chance to win.
Top pair vs Open Ended straight draw with two over cards is generally a 50 50 chance.
Top pair vs Midle pair with flush draw, is around 52-58% for the drawing hand.
Top set vs open ended straight flush draw is around 58% for the set.
I was bored and am throwing out random stats. Although knowing the set vs a flopped flush helps, cause that's happened to me a couple times and i had no idea where i was sitting on odds to call even if i put him on a flush. Also the open ender is good to know cause alot of people undervale that hand.
Comments
Ayup.
Although I doubt this is a serious comment, an unpaired flop is most common, if that's what was meant by this.
However, the exact flop AJ2 is less likely than the exact flop 432 since more flops are seen when a lot of Aces and Jacks are in players' hole cards compared to when a lot of 3's and 4's are in players' hole cards.
Not so, since the pre-flop play determines whether or not a flop is seen. This general idea is a major oversight in many of the "site X is rigged" analyses. Past plays affect the probibility distribution of future dealt cards.
For example, the exact flop Ah As Ad is less likely than 2h 2s 2d
Besides, the odds against 3 exact cards being chosen from a well-shuffled deck are 22,099 to 1.
Along the same vein, this
is impossible (or at least, exceptionally difficult) to calculate, since the pre-flop play affects the distribution of the cards that appear on the flop.
ScottyZ
This is then easy to compute using elementary probability, but meaningless in application to poker. Flops are related to the pre-flop cards that were dealt.
The calculations (or Googling the answers) are left as an exercise to the reader.
ScottyZ
I saw that episode... I was on it!
Johnny said that he heard that AJ2 was the most common flop and asked me if I'd heard anything about it. I couldn't determine whether or not he was serious, so I said very little. There was a part of me that thought he meant unpaired flops being more common than paired flops, and there was a part of me that thought he was kidding, but since I couldn't tell, I think we just moved on to something else.
What he said.
Damn you Devo, I was just going to play the"guess who was hosting when this was said" game. I could no longer resist.
JT can make you speechless at times, no?
C'monnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn Devo.....................I see you smirking
How is Q-7 calculated to be the "average" hand then??? Couldn't you just to do the math for 3 cards rather than 2??
You've obviously never played when "Metro" Tom is dealing
Mark
I believe Q 7 is calculated to be at the 50% point (ie will win 50% will lose 50%) against a random hand on an all in.Â
Just did the poker stove stuff and here you go
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.2343 % 46.37% 01.86% { random }
Hand 2: 51.7657 % 49.90% 01.86% { Qc7d }
equity(%) win(%) tie(%)
Hand 1: 49.9868% 47.82% 02.17% (Js5s)
Hand 2: 50.0132% 47.85% 02.17% (random)
sstar
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability_(Texas_hold_'em)
BUT...I also used to play alot with Sstar so he probably was the one who told me...
Top pair vs Open Ended straight draw with two over cards is generally a 50 50 chance.
Top pair vs Midle pair with flush draw, is around 52-58% for the drawing hand.
Top set vs open ended straight flush draw is around 58% for the set.
I was bored and am throwing out random stats. Although knowing the set vs a flopped flush helps, cause that's happened to me a couple times and i had no idea where i was sitting on odds to call even if i put him on a flush. Also the open ender is good to know cause alot of people undervale that hand.