Thread Deleted? RE: Prophet 22's trip report
Um why was that thread apparently deleted? If Prophet 22 doesn't want to get into a disussion, I can understand. But why limit the ability of others in the community to converse about the situation?
Seems selfish to me.
Seems selfish to me.
Comments
Your right pal so I took diown the post. What can I say, I know when someone is smarter than me and I can't carry on an intelligent discussion. You win.
Prophet :2h :2s
I for one thought that Brent was discussing it, you 2 didn't agree, but, it was a discussion and IMHO, it was a good report etc.
In regards to the discussion, I haven't read Harrington's book (or the book that covers what M value means) but I think I understand the concept. Â With an M of 2 it is interesting that one wouldn't push with any pair. Â Although I understood Brent's reasoning for wanting to be the one to push rather then the one calling. Â I guess those are the lucky rather then smart decisions one makes when playing in a MTT.
stp
stp
Personally I agree with that statement. I bit my tongue though as I'd assume someone might take offense.
Defending sub-optimal play with things like "feel" and "reads" just seems counterproductive for anyone that genuinely believes it's a bad move since criticizing the play implies that the OP's feel and read is wrong (which might not be the case). Don't get me wrong, reads DO matter, but so does the math of the situation (ignoring one in favour of the other doesn't make much sense since both are needed).
If the OP felt as if he was up against an overpair (and is in fact right) it's obviously a great fold. However, given the tiny stack, the uncertainty of what the opponent might have, and the great price he's getting, I think folding is bad. And yes, I understand "first-in" vigorish, but given the extremely tiny stack, I don't think hero actually has any fold equity anyways. If hero's stack is a little bigger (maybe M=3.5-5ish) I actually like the fold here.
Basically I see it as a spot where hero isn't even in the red zone, he's in the dead zone, and as such I think looking for opportunities where you can get a good price on your money is much more important than what cards you actually get dealt.
Actually, in the spirit of reviving discussion, this hand reminded me of a very similar hand I'd seen recently...
STT low buyin turbo ($10+1 maybe) on Stars. Down to 4. I believe all other stacks are roughly equal around 3-3.5K or so (top 3 pay).
Hero has just gotten crippled by a massive suckout. He is now crippled to something like 1.5-2BB. Hypothetically speaking lets say hero has 600 with blinds of 200-400 A50.
Next hand Hero has some trash like 83o UTG.
I advocate pushing because:
a)The raise may be enough to get rid of complete trash in SB. There's already 800 in the pot so moving in my 550 (after ante) for a chance to win a pot of 1500 (assuming SB folds) (200 + 200 + 550 + 550) is giving me roughly 3:1 on my money. (If either button or SB reraises to isolate me it will get even more dead money into the pot as well).
b) If I wait till I'm in the BB and SB pushes, I call my last 100 off and have a chance to win 1200 (200 + 500 + 500).
I'm also assuming none of the other stacks should be dumb enough to get allin vs. each other this hand if I opt to fold. Although I guess maybe this occurance will very very occaisionally happen (AA vs AA hitting a flush to bust a guy, or more likely AA vs. KK).
I guess I just want to ensure that maybe I get some dead blind money into the pot (and get less ante'd off) so I can play for the biggest stack possible. Even if both blinds call at least then I have a chance to triple.
Of course my friend opts to fold reasoning he's bound to pickup a better hand in the BB to call allin with.
So who's right and why? Is it close? Discuss...
It's better to have less chance of winning a big pot than to have a great chance of winning a small one when your M < 5.
There's a difference between being a 35% favourite in a pot of 20K and a 80% favourite in a pot of 5K. Yes, in the first case, 2 of 3 times you go home. It's the one third of the time you win that 20K and push your M back into the yellow zone. Now you get into the yellow zone, pick up QQ and win mondo chips against an equal stack. Suddenly you are the chip leader and have a chance to win (Remember, winning was the alleged goal).
In the latter case, you double up to 7k and need to fight the deck for cards in a vain attempt to move up a spot or two on the pay ladder. If the rungs on the ladder are widely spaced, then go for it. But don't convince yourself that you are still playing to win.
It is hard to say everything in written forum like this. I had the opportunity to push with 18 people left in the tournament and wasn't called. It was then I decided to be a pusher than a caller. (I had 10 8) same amount of chips.Â
I also had a guy play the math game with me in the final table. He could afford the call, chance to take 2 people out so he called with 3 6 offsuit. He won. He even said if he was a blind he wouldn't have called. It was horrible, it was a calculated risk based on what I had already observed. Poker is more than about the math. I believe that to be the case. I'd rather always go out of a tournament on my terms and not because I feel forced to do something because a math book told me.
Prophet :2h :2s
Assuming a player in front has raised so that calling would put me allin, and I presently have an M of 2, and that winning is most important to me, I could see someone pushing. That being said, I would not fault anyone for folding this hand. First in is more powerful that calling allin. With players still to act behind and having a low M myself, my calling invites more players to call and then check it down just to improve their chances of eliminating me and moving themselves up the ladder. 22 is never going to be a huge favorite, and with every new player entering the pot there are more and more outs for your opponents to knock you out. I only have two outs.
Again, if my goal is strictly to play for the win, I can live with the push. However, I believe it could be strongly argued that passing here can potentially be profitable. With a low M, most players would push with marginal hands. I would suggest that since I am not the first one in that my 22 is marginal with only 2 outs if I am behind. I could wait for another marginal hand where I have the opportunity to be first in and push then. Suppose I get A6o UTG. I can push here with an M of 2, and if I run into another A, I would have 3 outs to improve. Someone may even call with a K or Q on the premise of being able to afford it. I think pushing first with A6o as opposed to calling allin with 22 is a more powerful play. You may be doomed anyhow, but by passing the 22 you may have stepped up the payout ladder a rung.
Feel or reads that a play is a bad idea is not necessarily incorrect because the math says so. We are dealing with probability here. Unless the situation's outcome is an absolute certainty, playing the math game is only truly correct over the long run. In this particular incident, pushing could be(and was) fatal. It is hard to comfort yourself in saying "well math says it was a good call" if you are a player who prides themselves in playing by reads/feel.
If it were actually me in this hand, I think I would have pushed if I was in late position or the blinds, and folded otherwise.
**On a side note, I have to comment that I can't blame OP for removing the original thread. I feel that the criticism here on the forum as of late has been anything but constructive. I believe the spirit of why we are here has be forgotten by some. It is ok to disagree, in fact disagreements are the driving force for many of us to learn here. However, respect for opposing views rather than ridicule would be more beneficial for everyone IMHO.**
I encourage constructive criticism of what I have posted here. There are many intelligent members here that I would love to learn more from.
I couldn't agree more.
Right.
Right.
Did you even read the original post? There was nothing except constructivity in it.
I guess we're all just the best players in the world and don't need to help each other out unless we explicitly note the sections of our stories where we know we already made mistakes. Is that even learning?
"Don't criticize my play unless I already told you what I did wrong"... Right
So I pay the 400 in the BB and I now have 600 in chips. I don't even look at it - I want to see the action first. Folded to Mr. BigStack who needs to play every hand. He raises to 800. It is folded to the SB who calls. Now it is 400 to me. 2000 in the pot. 400 to me. 5 to 1 odds vs. 2 players. Wow, this looks like moving day. Now or never. Better have a look see though, just to satisfy my curiosity. QUESTION - before looking at your hole cards, do they even matter? Are there ANY hands that you will not play in this situation or is it an AUTO CALL (or push all-in for 200 more)??? Think about it and post your responses or at least make a mental note of your answer.
I take a peak, giddy at what I might find. And low and behold, I see 2 3 offsuit staring back at me. 2 3 offsuit. For (basically) all my chips, with a chance to triple up. Or I can pass and take door # 2 in the small blind. What say ye? I struggled with this one for some time (not eons, but it wasn't automatic - maybe it should have been).
Curious to see what the masses have to say...
Basically, forget the whole 10xBB left, you have to calculate your "M" value
M = your stack / the pot (SB+BB+antes)
If M <=5, it is mathematically correct to push with any two cards.
I would have pushed with the 10-3, or the hand before that one. If I let m'self hit the BB and had 23, well, I'm pushing it in and hoping that "TwoThree" Braad is onto something.
Mark
As for 10-3o, it is a marginal decision since it is a below-average hand with all the other players left to call. Harrington would probably advocate going all-in (along with many of your earlier folds). I might wait for the next hand in the hopes of either getting a better hand or having to face less callers as the BB, but having folded too many times to end up in the Dead Zone, you would probably soon be eliminated no matter what choices you make at this point.
Does the small blind coming along change your answer?
Nope, now you have a chance to triple up. And with live cards.
Actually, I've now read Harrington, but I had not done so at the time this hand took place. Â Perhaps that would've changed my decision...more likely it would have prevented me from being in this situation - I would have likely pushed earlier and been busted or been in a better spot.
However, here is where I think it gets really interesting - I HAD READ Sklansky's tournament book right before this hand, and basically his advice runs along the opposite lines of Harrington's. Â Sklansky basically says wait for a better hand if this hand is substandard....how do you guys reconcile that vs. Harrington? Â Who is right? Â ARe you sure?
I use BB if there are not antes. I believe you will get just as accurate an answer of what to do looking at BB with not antes. Once the Antes kick in just looking at the BB and not your cost per round will get you in red zone or dead zone very quickly.
I like the fold Brent... better to be the pusher any day... even if its with crap. However, I'm kind of surprised you did fold... 22 is in your name!!!!!!
/g2
Tough on g2. I wish I could get in your tournament on the 10th bit it was sold out before I saw it.
The 22 is in reference to slo-pitch and not cards. See ya soon, let me know if you get a cancellation.
Prophet :2h :2s
/g2