Turn play on draw-heavy board

beanie42beanie42
in Online Poker
Comments on the play of this hand are ok, but as you'll see, this is a VERY non-standard hand.  I am really going by my reads here, so I'm really looking for thoughts on the turn action based on my read.  Assuming I'm right, is pushing on the turn correct?


.50/1.00 NL
UTG $60 - Semi-loose passive
Hero SB $186 - Been pretty aggressive recently, and shown down some garbage
BB $71 - Loose, but bets well (mixes it up)

UTG calls
Button calls
Hero :js :jh - raises to $4.50
BB calls
UTG calls
Button calls
Pot = $18

Flop :5c :2c :6c

I don't think anyone has the flush, but the draw is out there, so I need to protect my hand.
Hero bets $15
BB calls
UTG calls
Button folds
Pot = $63

Both called, so I'm a lot more confident now.  From playing with them and there previous betting patterns, I'm pretty sure I'm still good.

Turn :7d

Super-scary board, but I honestly think I'm way ahead here.  I'm thinking BB has :ac, maybe paired their kicker.  UTG probably has 88-TT, with a club.  So I think that any A (3 cards), 8 or 9 (6 cards, since assuming they have pair), 4 (4 cards), or club (8 cards) beats me.  So while I think I'm good, almost half the possible rivers will beat me (I'm about 55% to win).  However, I'm pretty sure if I push, at least 1 player will call me.

Pot is $63, BB has $51 back, and UTG has $40 back.  If BB calls and UTG folds, my odds of winning go up, the pot will be $165 and I'll only have invested $70.  If UTG calls and BB folds, my odds of winning go up slightly, the pot will be $143 and I'll have put in $60.  If both call, pot will be $205 for my $70 investment (since I'll be in main and side).  Assuming my read is right, and I'm 55% to win, is a push correct here?

Comments

  • ElElliottElElliott
    Can I ask why you don't think anyone has the flush?

    I think based on their flat calls of your post-flop bet you're likely right. But before that, wouldn't it be perfectly plausible that one of them could have played suited cards?

    Regardless, I think you made the right move with your bet. Looks like they are both chasing something, and based on your assumption that you're way ahead, I think it's the right move to push and make them pay to chase.
  • beanie42beanie42
    ElElliott wrote:
    Can I ask why you don't think anyone has the flush?

    I think based on their flat calls of your post-flop bet you're likely right. But before that, wouldn't it be perfectly plausible that one of them could have played suited cards?
    A lot of my read goes into history playing with these 2.

    BB has a large raising range, and doesn't care about a raise before him. He'll raise about 80% of the time with anything suited, any 2 broadway cards, or any pair. He'll call with anything else. After that, with 2 reasonably good players still in, I don't think he'd stay with bottom pair or a weak flush draw, so I'm thinking A5, A6, K5 or K6 with either the A/K of clubs.

    The UTG player scared me a bit, and if they reraise PF I'm gone. However, they would have open-raised with AK or AQ, and re-raised with a big pair. He wouldn't have played weak-suited cards from UTG, especially to a raise, so I think a PP ten or lower. After the flop, he would have bet any set since it's so vulnerable, and folded any under-pair, so I thought a pair between 77-TT.

    There is some room for error here, obviously, but my initial reads stayed consistent with the play through the rest of the hand, so I was fairly confident.
  • AcidJoeAcidJoe
    If your read is right go ahead and push. I'd feel a lot better of it if you had the J of clubs. Not that I think you'd win if you hit the flush, mostly to take it out of consideration.
  • ScoobyDScoobyD
    Given the stack sizes and your read, I like the push.

    I assume both checked to you on the turn?

    Only way I see you in trouble is if someone is slowplaying the nut flush.
    If your read is right go ahead and push. I'd feel a lot better of it if you had the J of clubs.

    I think I'd like the Jc too, mainly because I can occaisionally see a hand like 76s that paired up on the turn. The first player to act might fold a big club (more like K or Q than the A) facing a near pot sized bet, and hence your Jc redraw would be good here against the 2 pair. Of course, if the 2 pair calls first, it's pretty likely the nut flush draw will come along as well.

    Based on your investment and the potential return, I think pushing is +EV here under most circumstances...
  • beanie42beanie42
    ScoobyD wrote:
    I assume both checked to you on the turn?
    I was SB, so first to act.
  • SirWattsSirWatts
    Given how wide you think their ranges are a push sounds best. This is really high variance though since you could easily be beat, normally I'd want to have a club to play my hand this aggressively. I think checking the flop is a better option here since you're never very far ahead of anything and getting raised sucks. These guys would have to very loose/bad for me to think this line is best in general, but maybe they are.
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