Another...Am I overplaying this? Thread.

haddon

The following poker hand just happened tonight online.
5/10NL online.
I am in MP.

Dealt: 10c 8c (my favourite hand)
UTG and UTG2 limp.
I raise like a donkey to $25 to go.
Button calls, probably just hoping to outplay me on a low flop.
UTG's both flat call.
Pot: $115 preflop.
FLOP COMES: 10d 8h Ac
UTG bets $30. Types, "Be careful, I have AK."
UTG+1 folds.
I pot bet for $145.
Button types, "I am folding AK" and folds.
UTG calls.
Pot: $405 I think.
TURN card: Kc
UTG - get this - CHECKS!!
I bet knowing he will just flat call and hope to boat or flush on the river.
He calls my $200 and has $just under 500 back.
I am willing to put him all in on any river card, because who cares?
RIVER card: 8s.
He checks, I push he had clicked 'call any' I think.
He has A 10.
Man, if that river was a ten I wasn't going to eat for a while...hell, that might have been a good thing.

Do you worry about A8 here?  What about AA or KK?
Was I married to my two pair too much?

adammc

Depending how deep you were the turn card lets me get it all in, their holdings in EP with a limp call do not signify strength what so ever, and because of your holding, his possible 2 pair combination with A8 or AT is reduced. The river absolutely sealed your fate, and I think you go broke here ten times out of ten.

haddon

His limped sort of smelled of weak ace, hence the post. I played it hard because of my gut, and I haven't read a poker book on ensuring your gut is giving you the right info so I tend to feel like a fish for making plays like this and winning.
Am I just a lucky Donk like I've been told by some?
Or should I stick with my gut since it is being profitable?

beanie42

I don't mind the hand, but I don't like your pf raise.  Limp along and hope to hit hard, or raise a bit more (around $40) to try and get one of the UTG's out, or the button to fold (giving you position for the hand).

Flop is fine, but bet more on the turn.  Save your value bets for the river - your hand is probably best but very vulnerable right now.  I'd be inclined to take it down now, since his hand is still pretty undefined, and your hand probably needs to dodge quite a bit of the deck still.

haddon wrote:

Am I just a lucky Donk like I've been told by some?
Or should I stick with my gut since it is being profitable?

You got some skillz, and you're also a lucky donk - enjoy it!  Personally, I'm trying to use my gut more, but you need to integrate it with your thought process.  Ideally, they should complement each other and work together, rather than you choosing one or the other.

haddon

beanie42 wrote:

I don't mind the hand, but I don't like your pf raise. Limp along and hope to hit hard, or raise a bit more (around $40) to try and get one of the UTG's out, or the button to fold (giving you position for the hand).

Flop is fine, but bet more on the turn. Save your value bets for the river - your hand is probably best but very vulnerable right now. I'd be inclined to take it down now, since his hand is still pretty undefined, and your hand probably needs to dodge quite a bit of the deck still.

haddon wrote:

Am I just a lucky Donk like I've been told by some?
Or should I stick with my gut since it is being profitable?

You got some skillz, and you're also a lucky donk - enjoy it! Personally, I'm trying to use my gut more, but you need to integrate it with your thought process. Ideally, they should complement each other and work together, rather than you choosing one or the other.

The pf raise was donk in itself. 10 8 is no A 9 I know Trevor...haha, but I like what you're saying, more would have go one out for sure.

Is value betting on the turn a constant no no? Never read much on it, definately know how to use it on the river, just thought doing it on the turn can help the pocket book sometimes. Not here with a vulnerable hand, I know. But in general?

Me a donk? Hell, you'd know haha. My gut is just usually what I rely on. It's weird. It doesn't fail me too too much. Maybe I am just on a nice 8 month streak. My winnings since last October are solid and I am proud of them, but I guess if I played 'new school' poker a little better things could be even more profitable. I do run hands through my head and have been known to mak good lay downs and calls when I think. I guess I'm wondering if anyone on hear believes in an above average guessing/reading/gut calling ability?

Thanks for your input Trev, I totally value it. You JJJ flopper you!!!!

beanie42

haddon wrote:

The pf raise was donk in itself.

I don't think so, if you raised a bit more. You have a hand that is probably live, suited/connected, a raise will disguise your hand, and you have position on the limpers. A slightly bigger raise defines their hands a bit more, and possibly buys you position for the hand. I like this hand, and other middle suited-connectors - these (and small pairs) are how you stack opponents, IMO. I don't mind you playing this hand at all!

haddon wrote:

Is value betting on the turn a constant no no? Never read much on it, definitely know how to use it on the river, just thought doing it on the turn can help the pocket book sometimes. Not here with a vulnerable hand, I know. But in general?

In general, it can be ok, but again, not with a vulnerable hand. Obviously a lot depends on your table, and your opponents, but it's pretty dangerous to give your opponent odds to take you out.

haddon wrote:

I guess I'm wondering if anyone on hear believes in an above average guessing/reading/gut calling ability?

Definitely. And I don't think you get rid of it. I just think that to "get to the next level" you need to be able to determine logically what your gut is saying. The flip side is that if you can reason things out, it's nice if your gut agrees, so you can feel a bit more confident and sure of your decision. From what I've seen/read, pros have enough experience that they can read/feel the situations acutely, but they can then think through all the info available to them and arrive at the correct decision logically. I don't want to just tune 1, I want both!

SirWatts

Yeah if you're gonna raise make it a decent amount like $50, or just limping is fine. The flop is fine and on the turn I'd probably check behind because getting checkraised is terrible and the king is a scary card. Your bottom 2 pair isn't that strong here, decent payers won't be calling your raise with AQ or AJ there like ever so you probably only beat missed draws, and QJ for the dbl gutter just got there. As played pushing any river card is suicide, you should be checking behind almost always, but when you fill up yeah I'd get it in.

Dave Scharf

I don't mind the pre-flop raise. It's success will depend a lot on your opponents, of course.

Married to it? I would be. What are you hoping to hit? A flush or straight, sure, but the more likely is to land a hidden two pair and take A LOT of chips from someone with a big ace. WHich is what happened.