What is the right play? What would you do? Are they the same play?

The Prophet 22

Dave,

What is the right play?  I will update the rest when I get home from my ball game.  But am interested to know what others would do here.

Prophet 22

PS For the guy who asked about money.  18-10 get 8.64.  This is not about the money for me it is about the win.

PokerStars Game #5515428317: Tournament #27869769, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (600/1200) - 2006/07/10 - 16:14:39 (ET)
Table '27869769 5' 9-max Seat #2 is the button 12 players left


Seat 1: CrocodileRok (25789 in chips)
Seat 2: QuidQuidEst (70391 in chips)
Seat 4: ryeguy13 (38216 in chips)
Seat 5: Prophet 22 (45429 in chips)
Seat 7: shlackass (40912 in chips)
Seat 9: deadphish03 (49263 in chips)
CrocodileRok: posts the ante 75
QuidQuidEst: posts the ante 75
ryeguy13: posts the ante 75
Prophet 22: posts the ante 75
shlackass: posts the ante 75
deadphish03: posts the ante 75
ryeguy13: posts small blind 600
Prophet 22: posts big blind 1200

shlackass: folds
deadphish03: raises 3600 to 4800
CrocodileRok: folds
QuidQuidEst: folds
CrocodileRok: folds
ryeguy13: raises 3600 to 8400

Prophet 22:  has AK clubs

My thoughts are this.

First, I felt sandwich between the two players and therefore was out of position in the hand.

Second, with deadphish03 raising first and then ryeguy13 re-raising, I felt one of these two had one if not both my outs and we were going against a pair. Part of the problem I was sure the sm blind was the one with the pair and that that pair could be any cards from 44 two QQ. I dismissed AA KK solely because I believed deadphish03 had AK so the odds of him having AA or KK were slim (greg could tell me the odds). I looked at my stack and said to myself, it would be nice to win this hand but why play in a race where I feel handicapped.

Third, If I called I had to worry about what deadphish03 would do and wasn't prepared to go all-in pre-flop with so many unknowns.

I decided the best chance to give me a shot at winning the tournament was to fold. So that is what I did. deadphish03 called

Here is the flop:

*** FLOP *** [2c Tc 5c]
ryeguy13: bets 29741 and is all-in
deadphish03: folds
deadphish03 said, "ahhh ace king"
ryeguy13 collected 18450 from pot
ryeguy13: doesn't show hand

Even though I would have won the pot, I didn't beat myself up over it. And was able to finish 3rd. Going out with trips to the chipleaders straight. By the way, The guy who won the hand went out 4 hands later.

Thanks for your input.

Prophet :2h :2s

Hobbes

Not knowing how the others are playing, I'd have to guess that at best I have 2 over cards to one or more paired hole cards.
I'd be tempted to fold here, don't want 2 race for all my chips.

Were you in the $$ here? That may also affect my move.

Hobbes

AcidJoe

A raise and a re raise from 2 players who are not desparate yet.  The AKs may look good but I'd be tempted to fold it here.  I may have come over the top of one, but I wouldn't come over the top of 2.  I don't think you want to see a flop with that hand so the other option is PUSH.  As aggressive as I am I pass this one by.  

I'm guessing you folded and would have hit the nut flush for a large pot, or you did push it and lost to something silly like A 6 off when cory, I mean the villian hit the 6.

STR82ACE

No reads, no analysis up to this point...you're about average stack size. You want the win.

Without any indication on your opponents, I would be very tempted to push here. Any small pair will lead out and bet, but that re raise by the small blind is abit scary. Still, at best you have two solid over cards suited, and if you really want the win, this pot would definitely put you in great position for it. Or call, see a flop. AKs really needs help in either case, but it's going to cost you 7200.

Push!

But hey, I'm new!

haddon

RyeGuy may not be desparate but he is putting in a quarter of his stack. Phill Gordon always talks about situation like these and how it is impossible to know what the right move is without playing the game and knowing what the opponent has been up to all game. Ryeguy COULD fold to an all in here. And personally calling is weak weak weak. Flat calling here is silly. People need to or should know, that if you're in a hand they better be willing to die with their hand. That said, I am pushing or folding. In the end it is a $4 tourny. The quality of players are not the best. So even if he has 77-TT, no matter how scary the board, I've seen people stay married to their mid pockets when the straight and the flush get there with a paired board.

All in all, all in or fold it and kick yourself/pat yourself on the back later.
Flat calling is for scared money here. You want to win. This pot will put you on track to do so. And if you fold, you are still in great shape.

Barry Greenstein quote from Poker Pro May:

"If two players raise each other, and they are reasonably solid players, then I would throw an A-K away,"

pkrfce9

Reluctantly fold. Best case you are in a race. You arent' desperate so let these guys beat their brains out.

stpboy

The re-raiser has KK you gotta fold here.

stp

The Prophet 22

Thanks for your input I have update the original post.

Prophet :2h :2s

ScoobyD

Reads would be nice on the players, but without...

While in general I HATE laying down AKs, in this spot I think it looks good. Both of the raisers stacks are decent (as is yours). You have an M of close to 20 here so you have no need to get push crazy yet. Both of your opponents have similar M's. The opening raise looks fairly standard. The scary raise is the min raise from the SB who's out of position for the rest of the hand. The fact he doesn't seem in a hurry to end the hand being out of position is very scary (unless he's an idiot). I think you're in bad shape vs. the SB a significant portion of the time. Enough so, that I wouldn't feel the need to get in a giant confrontation unless I had some sort of read that the SB was a LAG (in which case I probably push over the top). Min raises from the blinds are often a pile of trouble...

pkrfce9

What makes you think you would have won the hand, Brent?

AcidJoe

pkrfce9 wrote:

What makes you think you would have won the hand, Brent?

Flopping the nut flush is a good start to winning the hand.

DrTyore

The Prophet 22 wrote:

I believed deadphish03 had AK

Don't call into a chop pot, good fold.

If the other guy has 22, then youre 50/50 just dropped by 1/3 (2 of your 6 outs are bubye), not to mention, the rewards are only 1/2.  Great fold there if you trust your read.


Mark

pkrfce9

the odds of him having AA or KK were slim (greg could tell me the odds)

i figured the odds of one or the other having AA or KK to be slightly less than 1%. meh.

i still don't see how you figured you would have won the hand from what you had posted.

The Prophet 22

pkrfce9 wrote:

What makes you think you would have won the hand, Brent?

Seeing the flop and having the nut flush, I don't See what would have beaten me. If the small blind had pocket 10's 3's or 5's I think the chances of him hitting quads and I doubt he had cards to give him a straight flush. If he did, I still think the odds were long.

Maybe I am presuming, but I think the nut flush was the best hand.

Prophet :2h :2s

pkrfce9

I misread it. More than twice. Didn't see the flop. My bad.

So that will happen less than 1 in 100 times. Don't beat yourself up over that.

haddon

The Brent I know pushes here...
But the Brent I know is unlucky contary to popular belief.
So had he pushed, the flop would have been red, like his face when he busts out.
Joking buddy, much love.

SirWatts

The minreraise here looks like a monster to me so I'd fold. Though I'm starting to lose faith in this tell a bit, but in this case I think you're dead. The funny thing is if the guy just pushed instead of minraising with his AA/KK/QQ he'd have gotten all the other AK guys chips instead of just 3600 more probably.